The Suicide Note: Do unemployment rates affect suicide rates? Author: Sarah Choi. Course: A World View of Math and Data Analysis

Transcription

1 The Suicide Note: Do uemploymet rates affect suicide rates? Author: Sarah Choi Course: A World View of Math ad Data Aalysis Istructors: Dr. Joh R. Taylor, Mrs. Desiré J. Taylor ad Mrs. Christia L. Turer Date: July 17, 010

2 Abstract: Committig suicide is oe of the primary causes of death i the world. There are several deviatig reasos as to why people of all ages commit suicide. Examples may be abudat amouts of stress, poverty, emotioal upsets ad setbacks, obscure relatioships with others, ad much more. Uemploymet, oe of the cosiderable factors that may cause suicidal thoughts ad suicide, was chose to aalyze if there was a correlatio betwee suicide rates ad uemploymet rates. Data collected from the WHO (World Health Orgaizatio) was calculated to see if there was ay correlatio i the state level (Uited States) suicide rates ad uemploymet rates, ad agai with the differet coutries ad their suicide ad uemploymet rates aroud the world (chose at radom). The correlatio coefficiets proved that there was little, if ay, correlatio betwee the affects of uemploymet ad suicide rates i the 50 states ad i the differet coutries over the world. The calculatios led to a hypothesis that uemploymet rates do ot affect suicide rates.

3 Backgroud: Suicide is the process of purposely edig oe s ow life. Accordig to the W.H.O. (World Health Orgaizatio), it is examied to be amog the top 0 leadig causes of death globally for all ages. It is cosidered oe of the three leadig causes of death i the world amog the ages of i some coutries throughout the world, ad the secod leadig cause of death i the age rage of I the US, suicide is the third leadig cause of death for 15-to-4-yearolds ad the overall eleveth cause of death for the geeral populatio of Americas. Worldwide, there are more deaths caused by suicides rather tha accidets, homicides, ad war combied. Statistics from The Truth about Suicide prove that a perso dies by suicide about every 18 miutes i the US. There are several reasos as to why someoe would commit suicide, however, the most immese factor that leads to someoe committig suicide or eve thikig about it is depressio. Depressio icludes rage, hopelessess, abadomet, self-hatred, axiety, or agoy. Sufferig from depressio may lead to bipolar coditios ad carry high risks of suicide. The top methods of suicide that are used are firearms, suffocatio, ad poisoig that accout for 9.3% of all suicides committed. Betwee the 1950s-1970s, suicide rates had almost tripled i males ad doubled i females. I the past 45 years, suicide rates have icreased by 60% i some coutries, especially i the easter hemisphere. For every four males that commit suicide, oe female commits suicide. For every three females that attempt committig suicide, oe male attempts to commit suicide. Uemploymet is the coditio i which oe is able to work but uable to fid a job. The ecoomic stadigs of the govermet i this age ad time make it hard for oe to fid a job ad 3

4 leave people uemployed with othig to do. Oce assumed to be volutary to be uemployed is ow cosidered beyod the cotrol of a idividual worker due to techological chages i labor, seasoal layoffs, racial discrimiatio, ad of course, ecoomic fluctuatio. Sice the recessio (a geeral slowdow of ecoomic activity over a period of time) that bega i March 001, the US Labor Market has bee i a slump, leavig employers jobless. Figure 1. Uemploymet Rate lie graph The recessio has take affect o most of the coutries aroud the world ad is circlig aroud the globe with uemployed people ad govermets usig differet tactics to protect jobs. While doig so, some coutries like Germay, cut shorter work weeks as a way to prevet mass layoffs ad more moey disappearig from already empty pockets. Research: Suicide rates seem to be havig differet impacts o differet states ad coutries. Is it because of the recessio ad the high uemploymet rates, leavig people jobless ad hopeless? Do uemploymet rates have ay effect o the suicide rates at all? 4

5 Suicide RAte (%) Methods: To see if there was ay correlatio betwee uemploymet rates ad suicide rates, data was collected for 50 states ad 50 radomly selected coutries aroud the world. The first table (see Appedix, table 1) was collected to see if there was ay correlatio betwee uemploymet rates ad suicide rates i the Uited States as a whole (Part1). The secod table (see Appedix, table ) was collected to see if there was ay correlatio betwee uemploymet rates ad suicide rates i the 50 radomly selected coutries throughout the world (Part ). The two tables were graphed usig a scatter plot ad ca be see usig the tables below- 5 Suicide Rates Vs. Uemploymet Rates i the U.S Suicide (%) Uemploymet Rate (%) Figure 1- Scatter plot of the Suicide Rates vs. Uemploymet Rates i the U.S. table 5

6 70 60 Suicide Rates Vs. Uemploymet Rates i the World Suicide (%) Figure - Scatter plot of the Suicide Rates vs. Uemploymet Rates i the World table To aalyze ad iterpret the data the best way, a scatter plot was used (as see above, i the Methods sectio) to evaluate a liear regressio. Part Oe: Suicide Rates vs. Uemploymet Rates i the U.S. The equatio r = x ( xy ( x) x)( y y) ( y) was used to fid the liear correlatio coefficiet ( r ), which determies how well the data poits correlate with the lie of best fit (x & y). The r value should be betwee 1 r 1, where the closer to -1 (egative correlatio) or 1 (positive correlatio), the stroger the correlatio. 6

7 Suicide RAte (%) x x 50 y y xy , , ,580.5 r= 50(8,667.18) 50(5,580.5) (635.6) (635.6)(444) 50(4,33.84) (444) r= very weak egative correlatio Prelimiary data for Part 1 r = very weak r value. The regressio liear equatio ( y^ a bx ) was foud by fidig the a value ( ad b value ( b = ssxy ( x)( y) (, xy / x ssxx x ) ). y b x ) ^ y = x 5 0 Suicide Rates Vs. Uemploymet Rates i the U.S Suici Uemploymet Rate (%) Figure 3. Suicide Rates vs. Uemploymet Rates i the US 7

8 A hypothesis test was doe, usig the Null Hypothesis (H o ) ad Alterative Hypothesis (H a ). The claim that there was a egative liear correlatio at the alpha level of 0.05 ( ) was coducted. H o : 0 H a : <0 (claim) The test statistic ( t * ) was calculated to see if the data fell i the rejectio regio. t * r with d. f. 1 r Degrees of freedom t * t * t* value is ot i the shaded regio, decisio: fail to reject the H o Rejectio Regio Sice the sample size was greater tha 30, a z-distributio was used. z= t*= t=0 Figure 4. Hypothesis test Fail to reject the H o Coclusio: There is isufficiet evidece at the alpha level of 0.05 to coclude that there is a egative liear betwee the uemploymet rate ad suicide rate i the US. 8

9 Part Two: Suicide Rates vs. Uemploymet Rates i the World Sice there was a very weak correlatio betwee suicide rates ad uemploymet rates i the U.S. aloe, a liear regressio o suicide rates ad uemploymet rates i the world was coducted to see if there was ay differece. The same formula x ( xy ( x) x)( y y) ( y) was used with the ew data (see chart below). x x 50 y y xy , , ,1.315 r= 50(11,794) 50(6,1.315) (678.6)(494.45) (678.6) 50( ) (494.45) r= very weak egative correlatio r = very weak egative correlatio Prelimiary data for Part ^ y = x Suicide Rates Vs. Uemploymet Rates i the World Figure 5. Hypothesis test 9

10 Aother hypothesis testig was coducted with the data from the global level to claim that there was a egative liear correlatio at the alpha level of 0.10 ( ). H o : 0 H a : <0 (claim) t * r with d. f. 1 r t * t * t* value is ot i the shaded regio, decisio: fail to reject the H o Rejectio Regio z= -1.8 t=0 t*= Figure 6. Hypothesis test Sice the sample size was greater tha 30, a z-distributio was used. Fail to reject the H o Coclusio: There is isufficiet evidece at the alpha level of 0.10 to coclude that there is a egative liear betwee the uemploymet rate ad suicide rate i the U.S. 10

11 Results: Part Oe: Coclusio: There is isufficiet evidece at the alpha level of 0.05 to coclude that there is a egative liear betwee the uemploymet rate ad suicide rate i the U.S. Part Two: Coclusio: There is isufficiet evidece at the alpha level of 0.10 to coclude that there is a egative liear betwee the uemploymet rate ad suicide rate i the world. Coclusio: The results from the hypothesis testig ad liear correlatio equatios show that the rates of uemploymet ad suicide do ot have a strog coectio betwee them to coclude that uemploymet is a factor that causes people to commit suicide. The data ad work shows that there was almost o correlatio betwee the uemploymet ad suicide rates due to the fact that the r value for both the U.S. ad global data were very close to 0. Hypothesis testig allowed us to see that there was o egative correlatio; hece the decisio made was to reject the ull hypothesis i both trials. The fact that the data shows o correlatio is relevat to the satisfactio of people whe realizig that uemploymet rates do ot affect suicide rates. It is appeasig to the geeral populatios mids whe cosiderig that just because you are uemployed will mea you will certaily go through depressio ad have high rates of suicide beig committed. Further explaatios that could be tested to see what correlates with suicide rates would be to fid out the rates of people beig treated for depressio ad the rates of suicide, to aalyze if therapy actually helps people from committig suicide. 11

12 Refereces: (October 3 009) "Te Views of Uemploymet aroud the World - BloggigStocks." WWW - BloggigStocks. < (March 6 006) "Uemploymet Surges aroud the World Worldfocus." Worldfocus: Iteratioal News, Videos ad Blogs. Web. < "Basic Facts o Uemploymet." The Urba Istitute Research of Record. Web. 8 Jue 008. < "uemploymet." The Columbia Ecyclopedia, Sixth Editio Retrieved July 14, 010 from Ecyclopedia.com: "SAVE Suicide Facts." SAVE Suicide Prevetio Iformatio, Suicide, Depressio Awareess. Web < 3f fcb4e6>. "WHO Coutry Reports ad Charts Available." 010 < "Basic Facts o Uemploymet." The Urba Istitute Research of Record. < "Why Do People Commit Suicide? - Depressio & Suicide FAQ." Suicidal.com - Whe No Oe Kows Your Pai - A Place of Hope & Compassio for the Depressed & Suicidal. 9 July 006 < 1

13 "List of Coutries by Suicide Rate." Wikipedia, the Free Ecyclopedia. Web.. < "Mothly State Uemploymet Update." NCSL Home. Web. < 13

14 Appedix: State Suicide Rate Uemploymet Rate 1 Alabama Alaska Arizoa Arkasas Califoria Colorado Coecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illiois Idiaa Iowa Kasas Ketucky Louisiaa Maie Marylad Massachusetts Michiga Miesota Mississippi Missouri Motaa Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolia North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Orego Pesylvaia

15 39 Rhode Islad South Carolia South Dakota Teessee Texas Utah Vermot Virgiia Washigto West Virgiia Wiscosi Wyomig Table 1 Coutry Suicide Rate Uemploymet Rate 1 South Africa Nicaragua Moldova Sri Laka Costa Rica Bahamas Latria Filad Tajikista Malta Demark Ira Germay South Korea Kuwait Barbados Caada Switzerlad Uited States Moldova Lithuaia

16 Russia Hugary Spai Ecuador Serbia Israel Macedoia Belgium Japa Belarus Kazakhsta Uruguay Russia Swede Slovakia New Zealad Hog Kog Luxembourg Portugal Icelad Triidad Idia Austria Cuba Croatia Sigapore Chia Thailad Frace Table 16