Short Range Outlook for Steel Demand Autumn OECD Steel Committee, Paris, 10 December Short Range Outlook overview
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1 Short Range Outlook for Steel Demand Autumn 29 OECD Steel Committee, Paris, 1 December 29 Content Short Range Outlook overview Background of the Forecast Regional overviews Conclusion 2 1
2 Short Range Outlook Overview 3 Global overview 28 (actual) 1,27 million metric tons, - 1.4% growth 29 (estimate) 1,14 million metric tons, - 8.6% growth 21 (forecast) 1,26 million metric tons, + 9.2% growth 4 2
3 Apparent Steel Use (ASU) years ASU (mmt) and YoY Gr % % Gr mmt , , ,224 1, ,14 1, ASU mmt YoY Growth % 5 Regional Summary (updated October 29) In mmt, % /8 8/9 9/1 WORLD 1,27 1,14 1, EU Other Europe CIS NAFTA C & S America Africa Middle East Asia & Oceania
4 F 21F Background to the Forecast 7 Steel in the Global Crisis % 1 8 GDP ASU source: worldsteel, Global Insight 8 4
5 Steel-using sectors Deepest decline in decades especially auto % q 1q 1q 1q 1q 1q 1q 1q 1q 1q 1q 1q 1q 1q 1q 1q 1q 1q 1q 1q 1q 1q 1q 1q 1q 1q 1q 1q 1q Construction Automotive Mechanical Engineering Metal Goods Source: Oxford Economics 9 IMF World GDP Growth forecast revisions % Apr-7 Oct-7 Apr-8 Jul-8 Oct-8 Nov-8 Jan 28 '9 Apr 16 ' Jul 8 '9-1.1 Sep 22 '9 1 5
6 Global recovery in sight In Q3, globally observed signs of recovery 2 GDP Growth Rate (%, Seasonally Adjusted Q-t-Q) Industrial Production Growth (%, Y-o-Y) China Advanced Economies Emerging Markets World EU Japan USA World -2 1Q 27 2Q 27 3Q 27 4Q 27 1Q 28 2Q 28 3Q 28 4Q 28 1Q 29 2Q 29 3Q 29-4 Jan-8 Apr-8 Jul-8 Oct-8 Jan-9 Apr-9 Jul-9 Source: Global Insight Source: Global Insight 11 Steel recovery China leading the recovery % Jan-8 Feb-8 Mar-8 Apr-8 May-8 Jun-8 Jul-8 Aug-8 Sep-8 Monthly Crude Steel Production (y-o-y%) Oct-8 Nov-8 Dec-8 Jan-9 Feb-9 US EU (27) China India Asia ex. China & India S.America Middle East C.I.S. 12 Mar-9 Apr-9 May-9 Jun-9 Jul-9 Aug-9 6
7 Underlying Macroeconomic Assumptions Global recovery momentum progresses with: continued policy coordination and proper timing of Exit Policies no immediate inflationary pressures resilience of emerging economies pulling global economic growth Gradual improvement in financial markets continues. No escalation of trade protectionism. 13 Regional Overview 14 7
8 NAFTA In mmt, % /8 8/9 9/1 21 ASU match point WORLD 1,27 1,14 1, NAFTA, of which: USA Canada Mexico Central and South America In mmt, % /8 8/9 9/1 21 ASU match point WORLD 1,27 1,14 1, C & S Am, of which: Argentina Brazil Venezuela
9 EU-27 In mmt, % /8 8/9 9/1 21 ASU match point WORLD 1,27 1,14 1, EU Germany France Spain Italy UK CIS and Other Europe In mmt, % /8 8/9 9/1 21 ASU match point WORLD 1,27 1,14 1, CIS, of which: Russia Ukraine O. Europe, of which: Turkey
10 Asia and Oceania In mmt, % /8 8/9 9/1 21 ASU match point WORLD 1,27 1,14 1, Asia & Oceania, of which: China India Japan South Korea Thailand Asia & O. w/o China Africa and Middle East In mmt, % /8 8/9 9/1 21 ASU match point WORLD 1,27 1,14 1, Africa, of which: Egypt South Africa Middle East, of which: Iran Saudi Arabia U. A. Emirates MENA
11 BRIC overview In mmt, % /8 8/9 9/1 21 ASU match point WORLD 1,27 1,14 1, BRIC CHINA World excl. BRIC World excl. China Regional share in world steel demand Evolution through years Asia EU-27 NAFTA ROW 22 11
12 Top 1 Countries 25 and 21 TOP 1 (25) TOP 1 (21) Country ASU (mmt) Country ASU (mmt) China USA Japan South Korea India Germany Italy Russia Spain Taiwan, China China USA India Japan South Korea Germany Russia Italy Brazil Iran Top 1 accounts for 77% of world ASU in 21; whereas in 25 = 72% ASU (mmt); (%) of China vs. World % 46% 35% 37% 34% % (e) 21 (f) China India US 23 Crude steel production Jul 28 Oct 29 Production (mmt) Growth (% year on year) Jul-8 Aug-8 Sep-8 Oct-8 Nov-8 Dec-8 Jan-9 Feb-9 Mar-9 Apr-9 May-9 Jun-9 Jul-9 Aug-9 Sep-9 Oct-9 China (mmt) World (mmt) ROW (mmt) China (%) World (%) ROW (%)
13 Global steel capacity utilisation ratio % 9% 8% 86.7% 9.8% 7% 76.% 6% 58.3% 5% 4% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Conclusions The US financial crisis brought about a globally synchronised downturn initially, but differential speed of recovery among countries resulted in a significant change in the landscape of global steel industry. Global recovery began earlier than expected, but robustness and resilience of recovery still remains at large. Both upside and downside risk to the forecasts significant at this time. Beyond recovery, healthy growth will return supported by emerging economies sound economic fundamentals
14 Cover photo by Daniel Rodríguez Molowny 14
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