The Permian in Transition: Crude Takeaway Developments

Transcription

1 The Permian in Transition: Crude Takeaway Developments Sandy Fielden Director of Research, Commodities and Energy February 21, Morningstar. All Rights Reserved.

2 Permian Crude Takeaway Developments Agenda Image Source: Shutterstock Crude Takeaway Stack Midland Congestion 218 Takeaway Stack Through 221 New Pipeline Projects Gulf Coast Exports VLCC Dock Projects 2

3 Million barrels/day Permian Basin Takeaway Stack February Refinery Consumption 4 Existing Pre 214 Permian Express 3 Bridgetex Cactus 2 PELA 1 Midland Sealy Plains Sunrise 1Q 214 1Q 215 1Q 216 1Q 217 1Q 218 1Q 219 Production Forecast Source: Company Presentations, Morningstar 3

4 Million barrels/day Permian Basin Takeaway Stack February Refinery Consumption 4 Existing Pre 214 Permian Express 3 Bridgetex Cactus 2 PELA 1 Midland Sealy Plains Sunrise 1Q 214 1Q 215 1Q 216 1Q 217 1Q 218 1Q 219 Production Forecast Source: Company Presentations, Morningstar 4

5 Million barrels/day Permian Basin Takeaway Stack February Refinery Consumption 4 Existing Pre 214 Permian Express 3 Bridgetex Cactus 2 PELA 1 Midland Sealy Plains Sunrise 1Q 214 1Q 215 1Q 216 1Q 217 1Q 218 1Q 219 Production Forecast Source: Company Presentations, Morningstar 5

6 Million barrels/day Permian Basin Takeaway Stack February Refinery Consumption 4 Existing Pre 214 Permian Express 3 Bridgetex Cactus 2 PELA 1 Midland Sealy Plains Sunrise 1Q 214 1Q 215 1Q 216 1Q 217 1Q 218 1Q 219 Production Forecast Source: Company Presentations, Morningstar 6

7 $/barrel Midland Congestion Causes Price Discounting in Midland Discount to Cushing WTI Midland Discount to Houston WTI /2/218 2/2/218 3/2/218 4/2/218 5/2/218 6/2/218 7/2/218 8/2/218 9/2/218 1/2/218 11/2/218 12/2/218 1/2/219 2/2/219 Source: Platts, 7

8 Million barrels/day Expected Permian Basin Production to End of Refinery Consumption Existing Prior 214 Permian Express 6 Bridgetex Cactus PELA Midland Sealy 1 1Q 214 1Q 215 1Q 216 1Q 217 1Q 218 1Q 219 1Q 22 1Q 221 Plains Sunrise Production Forecast Source: Company Presentations, Morningstar 8

9 Million barrels/day Expected Permian Basin Takeaway Stack Forecast at End of Q 214 1Q 215 1Q 216 1Q 217 1Q 218 1Q 219 1Q 22!Q 221 Refinery Consumption Existing Permian Permian Express II,III & IV Bridgetex Cactus PELA Midland Sealy Plains Sunrise Enterprise Seminole NGL EPIC Cactus 2 Grey Oak P66/Enbridge Permian Gulf Coast Jupiter Wink to Webster Production Forecast Source: Company Presentations, Morningstar 9

10 Permian Pipeline Additions Q2 219 Q Source: Company Presentations, Morningstar

11 Mb/d Gulf Coast Crude Exports 25 Total GC Exports Source: U.S. Customs,, Morningstar 11

12 Mb/d Gulf Coast Crude Exports by Region 1 9 Corpus Source: U.S. Customs,, Morningstar 12

13 Mb/d Gulf Coast Crude Exports by Region Corpus Houston/Freeport/Texas City/Galveston Source: U.S. Customs,, Morningstar 13

14 Mb/d Gulf Coast Crude Exports by Region 1 9 Corpus Houston/Freeport/Texas City/Galveston Beaumont/Port Arthur Source: U.S. Customs,, Morningstar 14

15 Mb/d Gulf Coast Crude Exports by Region 1 9 Corpus Houston/Freeport/Texas City/Galveston Beaumont/Port Arthur Louisiana/Mississippi Source: U.S. Customs,, Morningstar 15

16 VLCC Dock Projects Proposed Trafigura Single Point Mooring Buoy System LOOP is only Gulf Coast Deep Water Port Plans to add 2 docks in Corpus Christi Offshore Buoys at Freeport, Texas City, Corpus Christi, Louisiana Will accommodate VLCCs 16 Source: Company Presentations, Morningstar

17 Permian Crude Takeaway Development - Summary Image Source: Shutterstock Current Takeaway Stack Just Adequate Congestion Over For Now Takeaway Stack after 219 is Huge Multiple New Pipeline Projects Planned VLCC Dock Projects Room for Continued Crude Growth Overbuild Possible 17