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1 Analysing research on cancer prevention and survival Diet, nutrition, physical activity and breast cancer survivors 2014 In partnership with

2 Contents About World Cancer Research Fund International 1 Our Continuous Update Project 2 Executive Summary 3 1. Summary of panel judgements 7 2. Definitions 8 3. Incidence and prevalence of breast cancer 8 4. Interpretation of the evidence 9 5. Methodology Evidence and judgements Foods containing fibre Foods containing soy Total fat Saturated fatty acids Physical activity Body fatness Other Conclusions 31 Acknowledgements 32 Glossary 35 References 39 Appendix 1 Breast Cancer Prevention 2010 report matrices Appendix 2 - Criteria for grading evidence for Breast Cancer Survivors 45 46

3 WORLD CANCER RESEARCH FUND INTERNATIONAL OUR VISION We want to live in a world where no one develops a preventable cancer. OUR MISSION We champion the latest and most authoritative scientific research from around the world on cancer prevention and survival though diet, weight and physical activity, so that we can help people make informed choices to reduce their cancer risk. As a network, we influence policy at the highest level and are trusted advisors to governments and to other official bodies from around the world. OUR NETWORK World Cancer Research Fund International is a not-for-profit organisation that leads and unifies a network of cancer charities with a global reach; dedicated to the prevention of cancer through diet, weight and physical activity. The World Cancer Research Fund network of charities is based in Europe, the Americas and Asia, giving us a global voice to inform people about cancer prevention. 1 BREAST CANCER SURVIVORS REPORT 2014

4 OUR CONTINUOUS UPDATE PROJECT (CUP) World Cancer Research Fund International s Continuous Update Project analyses global cancer prevention and survival research linked to diet, nutrition, physical activity and weight. Among experts worldwide it is a trusted, authoritative scientific resource, which underpins current guidelines and policy for cancer prevention. The Continuous Update Project is produced in partnership with the American Institute for Cancer Research, World Cancer Research Fund UK, World Cancer Research Fund NL and World Cancer Research Fund HK. The findings from the Continuous Update Project are used to update our Recommendations for Cancer Prevention, ensuring that everyone - from policymakers and health professionals, to members of the public - has access to the most up-to-date information on how to reduce the risk of developing the disease. As part of the CUP, scientific research from around the world is collated and added to a database of epidemiological studies on an ongoing basis and systematically reviewed by a team at Imperial College London. An independent panel of world-renowned experts then evaluate and interpret the evidence to make conclusions based on the body of scientific evidence. Their conclusions form the basis for reviewing and, where necessary, revising our Recommendations for Cancer Prevention. A review of the Recommendations for Cancer Prevention is expected to be published in 2017, once an analysis of all of the cancers being assessed has been conducted. So far, new CUP reports have been published on the updated evidence for breast, colorectal, pancreatic, endometrial and ovarian cancers. This report is based on the findings of the CUP Breast Cancer Survivors Systematic Literature Review (SLR) and the CUP Expert Panel discussion in June For further details please see the full Continuous Update Project Breast Cancer Survivors SLR 2014 ( HOW TO CITE THIS REPORT World Cancer Research Fund International/American Institute for Cancer Research Continuous Update Project Report: Diet, Nutrition, Physical Activity, and Breast Cancer Survivors Available at: 2 BREAST CANCER SURVIVORS REPORT 2014

5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Background and context Although there is a widely held perception that breast cancer is an issue only for the western world, the reality is that it is the most common cancer in women both in the developed and the developing world. Indeed, the incidence of breast cancer is rising in the developing world because of increased life expectancy, urbanisation, and the adoption of western lifestyles [1]. As early diagnosis and treatments for breast cancer improve, women are not only surviving the disease they are surviving for longer. Investigating whether lifestyle factors could play a role in improving survival rates is also becoming increasingly important. Understanding the science behind surviving breast cancer, however, is a relatively new area of research, but there is growing evidence that lifestyle choices may help to reduce the risk of having another diagnosis of breast cancer or dying from the disease. World Cancer Research Fund International s Continuous Update Project report on breast cancer survivors is the most rigorous, systematic, global analysis of the scientific research currently available on breast cancer survivors, and how certain lifestyle factors affect how likely it is that a person will survive after developing the disease. The report is the latest from our Continuous Update Project - the world s largest source of scientific research on cancer prevention and survivorship through diet, weight and physical activity. The research builds on our 2007 Expert Report on the links between lifestyle and cancer. At that time the research on surviving cancer was even more limited than it is today, and there was insufficient evidence to make recommendations specific to cancer survivors. However, there was enough evidence to conclude that cancer survivors should in general follow the recommendations for cancer prevention (see our Cancer Prevention Recommendations at wcrf.org). Seven years on, we present World Cancer Research Fund International s first systematic analysis of global research focusing specifically on surviving breast cancer. In this section we offer an overview of that work and the scientific findings and conclusions made by the independent panel of experts who analysed the research. How the research was conducted The report specifically focuses on: u female breast cancer survivors who are living with a diagnosis of cancer, including those who have recovered from the disease; u the link between diet, weight, physical activity and the likelihood of female breast cancer survivors dying from breast cancer, second primary breast cancer (i.e. a new cancer occurring in the same breast after treatment or in the opposite breast), or any other disease. 3 BREAST CANCER SURVIVORS REPORT 2014

6 Breast cancer survivors are defined in the report as women who have received a diagnosis of breast cancer from the point of diagnosis, through and after treatment. For the report, the global scientific research on diet, weight, physical activity and female breast cancer survivors was gathered and analysed, and then independently assessed by a panel of leading international scientists in order to draw conclusions about surviving breast cancer and reducing the risk of a second primary breast cancer. The total number of women in the 85 studies reviewed was 164,416; and the total number of deaths in the studies came to 42,572. Findings The Continuous Update Project s independent panel of scientists concluded that because of limitations in either the design or execution of much of the research that exists, the evidence is still not strong enough to make specific recommendations for breast cancer survivors. However, there are indications of links between better survival after breast cancer and: u a healthy body weight u being physically active u eating foods containing fibre u eating foods containing soy u a lower intake of total fat and, in particular, saturated fat. Body weight u Results show that there is a link between having a healthy BMI - both before and after diagnosis - and surviving breast cancer. However there are other factors that might explain why women who are overweight or obese have a greater risk of dying from the disease, so more research is needed to investigate these links. u While there is no strong evidence about the link between body weight and surviving breast cancer, there is strong evidence from our analysis of research into other cancers which shows that being overweight or obese increases the risk of developing eight cancers; bowel, womb (endometrial), oesophageal, kidney, pancreatic, ovarian, gallbladder and post-menopausal breast cancer. 4 BREAST CANCER SURVIVORS REPORT 2014

7 Physical activity u Evidence shows that women who are physically active - both before and after diagnosis - have a greater chance of surviving breast cancer. Other factors may explain this link, so further research is needed to investigate the reason for the association. Diet Diet may also play a role in surviving a breast cancer diagnosis, but there are relatively few studies on diet and survival after breast cancer. The studies that are available indicate: u Women who eat more foods containing fibre - both before and after diagnosis may have a lower risk of dying from breast cancer. u Breast cancer survivors who eat more foods containing soy after diagnosis may have a lower risk of dying from the disease. u Women consuming a diet high in fat and saturated fat before developing the disease may have an increased risk of dying following a diagnosis of breast cancer. More research is needed to investigate these links in order to confirm whether these foods affect survival after breast cancer. Recommendations 1. After treatment for breast cancer our advice, if it fits with the specific medical advice given, is to follow our Cancer Prevention Recommendations (available at wcrf.org), which include eating a healthy diet, being physically active and maintaining a healthy weight. 2. More and better scientific research is needed in order to make specific recommendations for breast cancer survivors. References 1. World Health Organisation. Breast Cancer: prevention and control. 2014; Available from: 5 BREAST CANCER SURVIVORS REPORT 2014

8 DIET, NUTRITION, PHYSICAL ACTIVITY AND BREAST CANCER SURVIVAL (BY TIMEFRAME) Timing of exposure assessment BEFORE DIAGNOSIS LESS THAN 12 MONTHS AFTER DIAGNOSIS 12 MONTHS OR MORE AFTER DIAGNOSIS DECREASES RISK INCREASES RISK DECREASES RISK INCREASES RISK DECREASES RISK INCREASES RISK Exposure Outcome Exposure Outcome Exposure Outcome Exposure Outcome Exposure Outcome Exposure Outcome STRONG EVIDENCE Convincing Probable Limitedsuggestive Physical activity All mortality BC mortality Body fatness All mortality BC mortality 2 2nd BC Body fatness All mortality BC mortality 2 2nd BC Physical activity All mortality Body fatness All mortality LIMITED EVIDENCE Foods containing fibre All mortality Total fat All mortality Saturated All mortality fatty acids Foods All mortality containing fibre Foods All mortality containing soy STRONG EVIDENCE Limited-no conclusion 1 Substantial effect on risk unlikely Fruits, vegetables, foods containing folate, foods containing soy, carbohydrate, glycaemic index, glycaemic load, protein, dietary supplements, alcoholic drinks, dietary patterns, underweight, body fatness (premenopause), adult attained height, energy intake Foods containing fibre, carbohydrate, protein, total fat, saturated fatty acids, alcoholic drinks, physical activity, underweight, body fatness (premenopause), adult attained height, energy intake Fruits, vegetables, foods containing fibre, foods containing folate, foods containing soy, carbohydrate, glycaemic index, glycaemic load, protein, total fat, saturated fatty acids, alcoholic drinks, dietary patterns, physical activity, body fatness, underweight, height, energy intake All mortality, All cause mortality; BC mortality, breast cancer mortality; 2nd BC, Second primary breast cancer STRONG: Evidence strong enough to support a judgement of a convincing or probable causal relationship and generally justify making recommendations LIMITED: Evidence that is too limited to justify making specific recommendations 1 Includes various exposure-outcome combinations where evidence was available but too limited to draw conclusions. For more details of the outcomes related to the exposures listed here, see the full Breast Cancer Survivors SLR 2 Postmenopause only DIET, NUTRITION, PHYSICAL ACTIVITY AND BREAST CANCER SURVIVAL (BY OUTCOME) Outcome ALL CAUSE MORTALITY BREAST CANCER MORTALITY SECOND PRIMARY BREAST CANCER DECREASED RISK INCREASED RISK DECREASED RISK INCREASED RISK DECREASED RISK INCREASED RISK Exposure Timeframe Exposure Timeframe Exposure Timeframe Exposure Timeframe Exposure Timeframe Exposure Timeframe STRONG EVIDENCE Convincing Probable LIMITED EVIDENCE Limitedsuggestive Physical activity Foods containing fibre Foods containing soy Before diagnosis 12 months after diagnosis Before diagnosis 12 months after diagnosis 12 months after diagnosis Body fatness Total fat Before diagnosis <12 months after diagnosis 12 months after diagnosis Before diagnosis Saturated Before fatty acids diagnosis Physical activity Before diagnosis Body fatness 1 Before diagnosis <12 months after diagnosis Body fatness Before diagnosis <12 months after diagnosis STRONG EVIDENCE Substantial effect on risk unlikely STRONG: Evidence strong enough to support a judgement of a convincing or probable causal relationship and generally justify making recommendations LIMITED: Evidence that is too limited to justify making specific recommendations 1 Post menopause only 6 BREAST CANCER SURVIVORS REPORT 2014

9 1. Summary of panel judgements Despite the increasing amount of evidence available, limitations in study design or execution restrict the ability to ascribe causality to observed associations. The Panel was unable to draw firm conclusions on the effect of diet, nutrition (including body composition), or physical activity in women with a diagnosis of breast cancer, specifically in relation to the reduction of mortality (from breast cancer or any other cause) or of a second primary breast cancer. The following sections summarise the Panel s judgements on exposures measured before diagnosis, within a year of diagnosis, or a year or more after diagnosis, in relation to all-cause mortality, breast cancer mortality, and second primary breast cancer. The Panel judges that: u In relation to all cause mortality, the evidence suggesting that: A higher consumption of foods containing fibre before or 12 months or more after a diagnosis of primary breast cancer reduces risk is limited. A higher consumption of foods containing soy 12 months or more after a diagnosis of primary breast cancer reduces risk is limited. Consuming a diet higher in total fat before a diagnosis of primary breast cancer increases risk is limited. Consuming a diet higher in saturated fatty acids before a diagnosis of primary breast cancer increases risk is limited. Being physically active before or 12 months or more after a diagnosis of primary breast cancer reduces risk is limited. Greater body fatness before, less than 12 months after, or 12 months or more after, a diagnosis of primary breast cancer increases risk is limited. u In relation to breast cancer mortality, the evidence suggesting that: Being physically active before a diagnosis of primary breast cancer reduces risk is limited. Greater body fatness before, or less than 12 months after a diagnosis of postmenopausal primary breast cancer increases risk is limited. u In relation to second primary breast cancer, the evidence suggesting that: Greater body fatness before, or less than 12 months after a diagnosis of primary breast cancer increases risk is limited. For other outcomes/timing of exposure assessment combinations related to the above exposures, the evidence was either absent or too limited to draw any conclusions. The Panel judgements (by timeframe and outcome) are shown in the matrices on page 6. 7 BREAST CANCER SURVIVORS REPORT 2014

10 2. Definitions The term breast cancer survivors denotes women who have received a diagnosis of cancer, from the point of diagnosis, through and after treatment. The definition of breast cancer survivor here does not include people living with a diagnosis of a benign tumour, or tumours defined as premalignant. 3. Incidence and prevalence of breast cancer The current World Health Organisation classification of tumours of the breast recognises more than 20 different subtypes [1]. Breast cancers may be classified according to histopathological characteristics, for example invasive (or infiltrating) ductal carcinoma or invasive lobular carcinoma, or molecular receptor status (for example for oestrogen, progesterone or HER2), or both. Less common types of breast cancer include inflammatory breast cancer, Paget disease of the nipple, phyllodes tumour, and angiosarcoma. Although rare (less than 1 per cent of cases [2]), breast cancer can occur in men, but it is not included in this report. Depending on the size and type of the tumour, extent of any spread, and patient preference, treatment usually comprises breast conserving surgery or mastectomy. Underarm lymph nodes may also be removed and evaluated during surgery in order to assess if the tumour has spread. Surgery may be accompanied by adjuvant therapy (radiotherapy, chemotherapy, hormonal or HER targeted therapy) [3]. Even for similar type or grade of breast cancer responses to therapy or long term outcome may differ between patients [3]. The Continuous Update Project (CUP) report on Breast Cancer [4] provided a comprehensive analysis of the relationship between diet, nutrition (including body composition), physical activity, and breast cancer risk (see box 1 for further information). Breast cancer is the most frequently diagnosed cancer (excluding non-melanoma skin cancers) among women in 140 of 180 countries worldwide. Between 2008 and 2012 breast cancer incidence increased by 20%, while mortality has increased by 14% [5]. In the US, it is estimated that there are currently 3.1 million breast cancer survivors [6]. Overall survival rates for breast cancer vary world wide, but in general survival rates have improved. This is because the majority of breast cancer cases are diagnosed at an earlier and localised stage, and improved surgery and adjuvant tailored treatment regimes are available. In many countries the 5-year survival rate for women diagnosed with Stage I/II (only spread to tissues or nodes under the arm) breast cancer is 80-90%. If it has reached the distant stage (spread to distant lymph nodes or organs) the survival rate falls to 24% [7]. The five-year prevalence of breast cancer 1 per 100,000 is 665 in Western Europe, 745 in North America, and 170 in Eastern Asia [5]. 8 BREAST CANCER SURVIVORS REPORT 2014

11 Box 1. Several factors have been shown to increase or decrease risk of first occurrence of breast cancer (see appendix 1). These factors have also been examined in relation to their effect on outcomes (all cause mortality, breast cancer mortality and second primary breast cancer) after breast cancer is diagnosed. There are additional considerations that must be taken into account for observational studies of breast cancer survivors, in whom randomised controlled trials would provide the strongest evidence. Therefore new criteria for judgement were developed for categorising the strength of evidence for causality in breast cancer survivors. In addition any exposure may have different effects on incidence of breast cancer and outcome after breast cancer diagnosis. 4. Interpretation of the evidence 4.1 General Relative risk (RR) is used in this report to denote ratio measures of effect, including risk ratios, rate ratios, hazard ratios, and odds ratios. 4.2 Specific Considerations specific to breast cancer survivors Timeframe The timeframes of exposure assessment used were; before primary breast cancer diagnosis; less than 12 months after diagnosis of primary breast cancer; and 12 months or more after diagnosis of primary breast cancer. These timeframes take into account exposure assessment at various stages of treatment - those who have not started, those undergoing treatment, and those who have finished treatment. 1The prevalence of breast cancer is defined as the number of persons in a defined population who were diagnosed five years before, and who are still alive at the end of, a given year. Prevalence reported here is for the adult population only (ages 15 and over) and presented as numbers per 100, BREAST CANCER SURVIVORS REPORT 2014

12 Treatment Treatment varies by breast tumour type and spread, and patient characteristics. The type and amount of treatment can have a greater effect on survival than most exposures related to diet, nutrition, and physical activity, and is likely a confounding factor. In the United States, for example, access to treatments varies by socio-economic status, as does diet and physical activity, so an apparent diet-survival relationship may be confounded by the type of treatment received. This also pertains to stage at diagnosis but stage is more easily ascertained in studies and is thus easier to control for than treatment information. Given the rise in rates of obesity, the practice of limiting doses in overweight and obese patients may negatively influence the quality of care and outcomes for overweight or obese women. The American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) set recommendations in 2012 that full weight-based chemotherapy doses be used in the treatment of obese patients with cancer. Weight gain is common in individuals treated with chemotherapy [8], especially when steroids are also administered or if premature menopause is induced in previously premenopausal women. During treatment, sarcopenia (loss of muscle mass) is often accompanied by a gain of adipose tissue. Time periods and changes in treatments Due to improved knowledge regarding tumour type, new treatment regimens have changed the expected effect of treatment and thus breast cancer mortality. For example, 15-20% of breast cancer cases are now known to be positive for HER2. Treatment regimens vary according to time periods, country, and socio-economic status within countries. Reverse causation An exposure being studied may be a result of the diagnosis (or treatment), and not the other way around. For example, it is hard to differentiate between intentional and unintentional weight loss, difficult to assess the impact of therapy on weight gain, and difficult to accurately measure or recall weight prior to the development of disease. 10 BREAST CANCER SURVIVORS REPORT 2014

13 Mortality and breast cancer subtype Pre-existing disease, and some specific subtypes of breast cancer (such as breast cancer negative for oestrogen, progesterone and HER2 receptors), are more likely to lead to early recurrence or death, conventionally defined as occurring within the first two years after diagnosis. If a survivor cohort is assembled a long time after diagnosis, such women at high risk for mortality may not be included. Furthermore, advances in treatment coupled with earlier diagnosis have led to longer survival beyond five years, up to 10 years and beyond. Therefore, it is important to consider survival in terms both of the cancer subtype, as well as of the time point after diagnosis when data collection occurs and follow-up begins. Randomised Controlled Trials (RCTs) and cohort data Well-conducted RCTs may provide strong evidence; however patients included in RCTs may not be representative of the wider population of breast cancer survivors. Survivors who do not enter RCTs may be sicker, have different lifestyles and could have lower survival rates. Cohort studies with large numbers of cases and a high response to follow-up may have better generalisability. However, in order to provide strong evidence cohort data must be fully adjusted for potential confounders such as tumour type, type of treatment, amount of treatment received, and the dissemination of disease, and this is not always possible. Criteria for grading evidence for breast cancer survivors The Panel discussed the approach to be used for reviewing the evidence for breast cancer survivors during The evidence for breast cancer survivors comes mostly from cohort and follow up studies with few RCTs, and there is a complex set of outcomes including quality of life, recurrence, and mortality. For the Second Expert Report in 2007, there were no existing systems for assessing the quality of evidence. Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) is now widely used as a recognised way of assessing and grading quality of evidence for making recommendations in healthcare settings. However, the use of GRADE does not translate directly to the context of this review. Possible options were presented for grading the evidence for breast cancer survivors. The Panel agreed to use the features of GRADE that were appropriate but adapt others to be more in line with the CUP principles and methodology for other cancer sites. In addition, it was agreed that the same terminology of probable, convincing and limited suggestive used in the Second Expert Report should be used to describe the evidence for breast cancer survivors in relation to likely causal effects. See Appendix 2 for further information on the criteria for grading evidence for breast cancer survivors. 11 BREAST CANCER SURVIVORS REPORT 2014

14 5. Methodology The protocol was developed by the research team at Imperial College London based on advice from the Cancer Survivors Protocol Development Committee. The outcomes included in the Breast Cancer Survivors Systematic Literature Review (SLR) 2013 are all cause mortality, cause specific breast cancer mortality, second primary breast cancer, cardiovascular disease mortality, mortality not related to breast cancer, second primary endometrial cancer, second primary colorectal cancer, and second primary ovarian cancer. This report is limited to all cause mortality, cause specific breast cancer mortality, and second primary breast cancer. Breast cancer recurrence, long-term treatment side effects and quality of life are not included as endpoints in this review, because accurate assessment of these requires access to medical records. Although randomised clinical trials often have access to medical records, most other studies, and in particular cohort studies, often do not have such access and rely on self-reported assessment, which is often unreliable. Also, the definition for recurrence varies across studies. Quality of life is not included in the review as summarising the results is not feasible. This is due to lack of evidence on the comparability of the extensive variety of instruments applied to assess quality of life in the existing studies. The study populations included are pre and postmenopausal women with a diagnosis of in situ or invasive breast cancer. Studies included reported primary, secondary or ancillary analyses of randomised controlled trials or cohort studies on associations between food, nutrition, weight control, nutrition-related complementary medicine, physical activity and outcomes in breast cancer survivors. Included randomised trials had to have at least 50 participants and a follow-up of at least 6 months. Follow-up of breast cancer cases from cohorts and case-control studies were also included (see appendix 2 for further information). The literature search was conducted using Medline, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library CENTRAL and included RCTs or follow up studies. Publications in foreign languages were not included. Published meta-analyses and pooled analyses are included in the SLR as a comparison with the CUP findings. The Breast Cancer Survivors SLR included studies published up to 30 June For more information on methodology please see the full Breast Cancer Survivors SLR 2013 ( 12 BREAST CANCER SURVIVORS REPORT 2014

15 6. Evidence and judgements In general, there was a lack of evidence from RCTs and pooled analyses. Additionally, it was not clear to what extent individual studies have fully adjusted for potential confounders such as the tumour type, type of treatment, amount of treatment received, and dissemination of disease. 6.1 Foods containing fibre (Also see Breast Cancer Survivors SLR 2013: Section 4.3) FOODS CONTAINING FIBRE DECREASES RISK Timing of exposure assessment Outcome STRONG EVIDENCE Convincing Probable LIMITED EVIDENCE Limitedsuggestive Before diagnosis 12 months after diagnosis All cause mortality All cause mortality STRONG EVIDENCE Substantial effect on risk unlikely The following sections summarise the evidence identified by the CUP on consumption of foods containing fibre before a diagnosis of primary breast cancer and 12 months or more after diagnosis of primary breast cancer. Before primary breast cancer diagnosis The CUP identified three follow-up studies on consumption of foods containing fibre before a diagnosis of primary breast cancer and subsequent all cause mortality [9-11]. For all cause mortality, two studies reported a significant inverse association when comparing the highest versus the lowest categories of intake (see Breast Cancer Survivors SLR 2013 figure 36). All three studies identified were included in the dose-response meta-analysis (n = 443), which showed a statistically significant 32% decreased risk per 10 g per day (RR 0.68 (95% CI )) (see Breast Cancer Survivors SLR 2013 figure 37). No heterogeneity was observed. Two of the studies reported on postmenopausal women only [9, 10] and the results were the same when the meta-analysis was restricted to women with postmenopausal breast cancer (RR 0.69 (95% CI ); n = 297; I² = 5.7%) (see Breast Cancer Survivors SLR 2013 figure 39). 13 BREAST CANCER SURVIVORS REPORT 2014

16 All three studies assessed patients pre-diagnosis diet after cancer was diagnosed. One study only included 26 deaths and adjusted for fewer factors than the other two studies. 12 months or more after diagnosis of primary breast cancer The CUP identified four follow-up studies on consumption of foods containing fibre 12 months or more after a diagnosis of primary breast cancer and subsequent all cause mortality [12-15]. For all cause mortality, three studies reported a non-significant inverse association when comparing the highest versus the lowest categories of intake (see Breast Cancer Survivors SLR 2013 figure 40). Three of the four studies identified in the CUP were included in the dose-response meta-analysis (n = 1,092), which showed a statistically significant 12% decreased risk per 10 g per day (RR 0.88 (95% CI )) (see Breast Cancer Survivors SLR 2013 figure 41). No heterogeneity was observed. One study was not included in the CUP analysis due to insufficient data. All studies included more than 100 deaths. All of the studies reported on pre and postmenopausal women, but it was not possible to conduct a meta-analysis stratified by menopausal status. CUP Panel s conclusions The evidence was sparse but generally consistent. Overall, there was a significant inverse association between consumption of foods containing fibre and all cause mortality. The CUP Panel concluded: Before a diagnosis of primary breast cancer All cause mortality: The evidence is limited but consistent. The evidence suggesting that a higher consumption of foods containing fibre before a diagnosis of primary breast cancer reduces risk of all cause mortality is limited. 12 months or more after a diagnosis of primary breast cancer All cause mortality: The evidence is limited but consistent. The evidence suggesting that a higher consumption of foods containing fibre 12 months or more after diagnosis of primary breast cancer reduces risk of all cause mortality is limited. 14 BREAST CANCER SURVIVORS REPORT 2014

17 6.2 Foods containing soy (Also see Breast Cancer Survivors SLR 2013: Section 4.6 and 4.10) FOOD CONTAINING SOY DECREASES RISK Timing of exposure assessment Outcome STRONG EVIDENCE Convincing Probable LIMITED EVIDENCE Limitedsuggestive 12 months after diagnosis All cause mortality STRONG EVIDENCE Substantial effect on risk unlikely The following sections summarise the evidence identified by the CUP on foods containing soy consumed 12 months or more after a diagnosis of primary breast cancer. 12 months or more after diagnosis of primary breast cancer The CUP identified three follow up studies on isoflavone intake 12 months or more after a diagnosis of primary breast cancer and all cause mortality [16-18], and two on soy protein intake and all cause mortality [17, 18]. For isoflavone intake, one study reported a significant inverse association when comparing the highest versus the lowest category of intake, and two reported a nonsignificant inverse association (see Breast Cancer Survivors SLR 2013 figure 65). All three studies identified were included in the dose-response meta-analysis (n = 794), which showed no significant association (RR 0.91 (95% CI )) per 10 mg per day (see Breast Cancer Survivors SLR 2013 figure 66). There was evidence of substantial heterogeneity (I 2 = 67.7%) largely due to size of effect. Two of the three studies had more than 100 deaths. Two of the studies were from China and one was from the United States. All of the studies reported on pre and postmenopausal women, but it was not possible to conduct a meta-analysis stratified by menopausal status. For soy protein both studies reported a significant inverse association for soy protein intake above 13 g per day and were included in the isoflavone dose-response meta-analysis. 15 BREAST CANCER SURVIVORS REPORT 2014

18 Published pooled analysis The results from one published pooled analysis on intake of isoflavones and breast cancer survival was identified in the Breast Cancer Survivors SLR 2013 [19]. The pooled study reported no significant association between consuming at least 10 mg isoflavones per day compared to less than 4 mg per day and all cause mortality (HR 0.87 (95% CI )). There was no significant interaction with menopausal status. CUP Panel s conclusions The evidence was sparse and generally consistent, and is suggestive of an inverse relationship between consumption of foods containing soy and all cause mortality. The CUP Panel concluded: All cause mortality: The evidence is limited but generally consistent. The evidence suggesting that a higher consumption of foods containing soy 12 months or more after a diagnosis of primary breast cancer reduces risk of all cause mortality is limited. 6.3 Total fat (Also see Breast Cancer Survivors SLR 2013: Section 4.4 and 6.2) TOTAL FAT INCREASES RISK Timing of exposure assessment Outcome STRONG EVIDENCE Convincing Probable LIMITED EVIDENCE Limitedsuggestive Before diagnosis All cause mortality STRONG EVIDENCE Substantial effect on risk unlikely 16 BREAST CANCER SURVIVORS REPORT 2014

19 The following sections summarise the evidence identified by the CUP on total fat before a diagnosis of primary breast cancer. Before primary breast cancer diagnosis The CUP identified seven follow up studies on total fat intake before a diagnosis of primary breast cancer and subsequent all cause mortality [10, 11, 13, 20-23]. Three of these studies also reported on per cent of energy intake from fat and all cause mortality [10, 11, 23]. For total fat intake (g per day), three studies reported comparing the highest versus the lowest intake, two studies showed a significant positive association, and one a nonsignificant inverse association (see Breast Cancer Survivors SLR 2013 figure 46). Four of the seven identified studies were included in the dose-response meta-analysis (n = 178), which showed a significant 19% increased risk per 10 g per day (RR 1.19 (95% CI )) (see Breast Cancer Survivors SLR 2013 figure 47). There was evidence of substantial heterogeneity (I 2 = 82.0%) largely due to size of effect. Five of the studies assessed patients pre-diagnosis diet after cancer was diagnosed. Six of the studies included pre and postmenopausal women; and one included postmenopausal women only. Two studies were not included in the CUP analysis due to insufficient information. For per cent energy from fat, two studies reported a significant positive association comparing the highest versus lowest intake (no figure available). All three studies identified were included in the dose-response meta-analysis (n = 178), which showed a significant 82% increased risk per 10 per cent energy from fat (RR 1.82 (95% CI )) (see Breast Cancer Survivors SLR 2013 figure 82). No heterogeneity was observed. Two of the three studies identified assessed patients pre-diagnosis diet after cancer was diagnosed, and all three included pre and postmenopausal women. All three studies also reported on total fat (g per day). CUP Panel s conclusions The evidence was sparse and generally consistent. Overall, there was a significant positive association between fat intake and all cause mortality. The CUP Panel concluded: All cause mortality: The evidence is limited but generally consistent. The evidence suggesting that consuming a diet higher in total fat before a diagnosis of primary breast cancer increases risk of all cause mortality is limited. 17 BREAST CANCER SURVIVORS REPORT 2014

20 6.4 Saturated fatty acids (Also see Breast Cancer Survivors SLR 2013: Section 4.5) SATURATED FATTY ACIDS INCREASES RISK Timing of exposure assessment Outcome STRONG EVIDENCE Convincing Probable LIMITED EVIDENCE Limitedsuggestive Before diagnosis All cause mortality STRONG EVIDENCE Substantial effect on risk unlikely The following sections summarise the evidence identified by the CUP on intake of saturated fatty acids before a diagnosis of primary breast cancer. Before primary breast cancer diagnosis The CUP identified four follow up studies on intake of saturated fatty acids before a diagnosis of primary breast cancer and all cause mortality [10, 11, 21, 23]. For all cause mortality, two reported a significant positive association when comparing the highest versus the lowest categories of intake (No figure available). Three of the four studies identified were included in the dose-response meta-analysis (n = 178), which showed a statistically significant 66% increased risk per 10 g per day (RR 1.66 (95% CI )) (see Breast Cancer Survivors SLR 2013 figure 54). There was evidence of moderate heterogeneity (I 2 = 31.8%). None of the studies had more than 100 deaths. Two of the three studies assessed patients before diagnosis diet after cancer was diagnosed. One study included pre and postmenopausal women, the other two included postmenopausal women only. One study was not included in the CUP analysis due to insufficient data. CUP Panel s conclusions The evidence was sparse and generally consistent. Overall, there was a significant positive association between intake of saturated fatty acids and all cause mortality. The CUP Panel concluded: All cause mortality: The evidence is limited but generally consistent. The evidence suggesting that consuming a diet higher in saturated fatty acids before a diagnosis of primary breast cancer increases risk of all cause mortality is limited. 18 BREAST CANCER SURVIVORS REPORT 2014

21 6.5 Physical activity (Also see Breast Cancer Survivors SLR 2013: Section 5) PHYSICAL ACTIVITY DECREASES RISK Timing of exposure assessment Outcome STRONG EVIDENCE Convincing Probable LIMITED EVIDENCE STRONG EVIDENCE Limitedsuggestive Substantial effect on risk unlikely Before diagnosis 12 months after diagnosis All cause mortality Breast cancer mortality All cause mortality The following sections summarise the evidence identified by the CUP on physical activity before a diagnosis of primary breast cancer and 12 months or more after a diagnosis of primary breast cancer. Before primary breast cancer diagnosis The CUP identified nine follow-up studies on physical activity assessed before a diagnosis of primary breast cancer and all cause mortality [20, 24-31], and eight studies on physical activity assessed before a diagnosis of primary breast cancer and breast cancer mortality [20, 25, 26, 28-32]. For all cause mortality, two studies reported on total physical activity and eight studies reported on recreational physical activity (one study reported on both exposures). For total physical activity, both studies reported a non-significant inverse association when comparing the highest versus the lowest activity levels (see Breast Cancer Survivors SLR 2013 figure 68). No dose-response meta-analysis was possible. Both studies had more than 100 deaths, included pre and postmenopausal women, and were from North America. Follow up times were 6 and 8.3 years. For recreational activity, seven studies reported an inverse association when comparing the highest versus the lowest activity levels, four of which were statistically significant (see Breast Cancer Survivors SLR 2013 figure 68). The other study reported no association (RR 1.00). No dose-response meta-analysis was possible. All eight studies included pre and postmenopausal women except one that included premenopausal women only. Five studies were from North America and three were from Europe. Follow-up time in most studies was between 5 and 10 years and most studies carried out assessment of physical activity prior to diagnosis. 19 BREAST CANCER SURVIVORS REPORT 2014

22 For breast cancer mortality, two studies reported on total physical activity and seven studies reported on recreational physical activity (one study reported on both exposures). For total physical activity, both studies showed a non-significant inverse association when comparing the highest versus the lowest activity levels (see Breast Cancer Survivors SLR 2013 figure 76). No dose-response meta-analysis was possible. Both studies had more than 100 deaths, included pre and postmenopausal women, and were from North America. Follow up times were 6 and 8.3 years. For recreational physical activity, all seven studies compared the highest versus the lowest levels of activity, five reported a non-significant inverse association, of which two were statistically significant, and two studies reported a non-significant positive association (see Breast Cancer Survivors SLR 2013 figure 76). Again, no dose-response meta-analysis was possible. All studies included pre and postmenopausal women, except one that included only premenopausal women. Four studies were from North America and three were from Europe. All studies reported more than 100 deaths, and follow-up time in most studies was between 5 and 12 years. 12 months or more after diagnosis of primary breast cancer The CUP identified eight follow-up studies on physical activity 12 months or more after a diagnosis of primary breast cancer and all cause mortality as the outcome [25, 27, 33-38]. For all cause mortality, three studies reported on total physical activity and five studies reported on recreational physical activity (no study reported on both exposures). For total physical activity all three studies reported an inverse association when comparing the highest versus the lowest activity levels, one of which was statistically significant (see Breast Cancer Survivors SLR 2013 figure 69). All three studies on total physical activity were included in a dose-response meta-analysis (n = 514), which showed a non-significant decreased risk of all cause mortality per 10 Metabolic Equivalent per Task (MET)-hours per week (RR 0.90 (95% CI )) with evidence of high heterogeneity (I 2 = 78.7%) (see Breast Cancer Survivors SLR 2013 figure 70). All studies included pre and postmenopausal women, and reported more than 100 deaths, and were from the United States. Follow up time ranged from 6 to 7 years. For recreational activity all five studies reported an inverse association when comparing the highest versus the lowest activity levels, four of which were statistically significant (see Breast Cancer Survivors SLR 2013 figure 69). 20 BREAST CANCER SURVIVORS REPORT 2014

23 All five studies on recreational physical activity were included in a dose-response meta-analysis (n = 2,337), which showed a statistically significant 19% decreased risk of all cause mortality per 10 MET-hours per week (RR 0.81 (95% CI )) and again with evidence of high heterogeneity (I 2 = 63.8%) (see Breast Cancer Survivors SLR 2013 figure 72), mainly due to size of effect. For stratification by menopausal status showed a significant decreased risk for postmenopausal women (n = 902; 4 studies) but not for premenopausal women (n = 225; 2 studies) (RRs 0.74 (95% CI ) and 0.76 (95% CI ) per 10 MET-hours per week, respectively) (see Breast Cancer Survivors SLR 2013 figure 75). There was evidence of moderate (I 2 = 42.3%) and high (I 2 = 73.6%) heterogeneity in pre and postmenopausal women, respectively. Three studies included pre and postmenopausal women and two included only postmenopausal women. Three studies were from the United States, one from China and one from Germany. All studies reported more than 100 deaths, and follow up time ranged from 4 to 8 years. Published pooled analysis Results are consistent with the After Breast Cancer Pooling Project which reported a 27% significant decreased risk of mortality by engaging in at least 10 MET-hours per week compared to less than 10 MET-hours per week [39]. CUP Panel s conclusions The evidence was generally consistent showing an inverse association between physical activity and all cause mortality and breast cancer mortality. It was not clear to what extent individual studies have fully adjusted for potential confounders such as the tumour type, type of treatment, amount of treatment received, and the dissemination of the disease. The CUP Panel concluded: Before a diagnosis of primary breast cancer All cause mortality: The evidence is limited but generally consistent. The evidence suggesting that being physically active before a diagnosis of primary breast cancer reduces risk of all cause mortality is limited. Breast cancer mortality: The evidence is limited but generally consistent. The evidence suggesting that being physically active before a diagnosis of primary breast cancer reduces risk of breast cancer mortality is limited. 21 BREAST CANCER SURVIVORS REPORT 2014

24 12 months or more after a diagnosis of primary breast cancer All cause mortality: There is ample evidence from follow-up studies, which is generally consistent and there is evidence of a dose-response relationship. However, the possibility of confounding cannot be excluded and there is no evidence from randomised controlled trials. The evidence suggesting that being physically active 12 months or more after a diagnosis of primary breast cancer reduces risk of all cause mortality is limited. 6.6 Body fatness (Also see Breast Cancer Survivors SLR 2013: Section 7.1, 7.6, 7.7 and 7.8) BODY FATNESS INCREASES RISK Timing of exposure assessment Outcome STRONG EVIDENCE Convincing Probable LIMITED EVIDENCE Limitedsuggestive Before diagnosis <12 months after diagnosis 12 months after diagnosis All cause mortality Breast cancer mortality 1 Second primary breast cancer All cause mortality Breast cancer mortality 1 Second primary breast cancer All cause mortality STRONG EVIDENCE Substantial effect on risk unlikely 1 Postmenopausal only The following sections summarise the evidence identified by the CUP on body fatness before a diagnosis of primary breast cancer, less than 12 months after a diagnosis of primary breast cancer, and 12 months or more after a diagnosis of primary breast cancer. The Panel interpreted body mass index (BMI), waist and hip circumference and waisthip ratio as measures of body fatness. The Panel is aware that these anthropometrical measures are imperfect and cannot distinguish between lean mass and fat mass. 22 BREAST CANCER SURVIVORS REPORT 2014

25 Before primary breast cancer diagnosis The CUP identified 23 follow up studies on body fatness before a diagnosis of primary breast cancer and all cause mortality [13, 20, 22, 23, 26, 28, 29, 35, 40-58], 25 studies on body fatness and breast cancer mortality [20, 23, 26, 28, 29, 32, 40, 41, 44, 46-48, 52, 58-69], and three studies on body fatness and second primary breast cancer [70-72]. For all cause mortality, 23 studies reported on BMI, one of which also reported on waist and hip circumference, and waist-hip ratio. For BMI, 20 studies reported a positive association of which 13 were statistically significant when comparing highest versus lowest groups (see Breast Cancer Survivors SLR 2013 figure 84). Fourteen of the 23 studies identified in the CUP were included in the dose-response meta-analysis (n = 6,261), which showed a statistically significant 17% increased risk per 5 kg/m 2 (RR 1.17 (95% CI )) (see figure 1 (Breast Cancer Survivors SLR 2013 figure 88)). There was evidence of low heterogeneity (I 2 = 13%). Egger s test for publication bias was significant (p = 0.04), which may be explained by two small studies that reported strong positive associations (see Breast Cancer Survivors SLR 2013 figure 89). There was no evidence of a strong influence from any one study. Stratification by menopausal status, showed a statistically significant increased risk for premenopausal and postmenopausal women. There was evidence of non-linearity (p < 0.001). A non-linear dose-response meta-analysis of all data, including those from the underweight patients, showed a slight J-shape relation (see Breast Cancer Survivors SLR 2013 figure 92). Four studies included postmenopausal women only and two included premenopausal women only, with the remaining 18 including both pre and postmenopausal women. Two studies had less than 100 deaths, and follow up times ranged between 3 to 25 years. Three studies were not included in the CUP analysis due to one reporting unadjusted results, and two reporting insufficient data. For waist and hip circumference, and waist-hip ratio all studies reported a non-significant positive association. No meta-analysis was possible for waist and hip circumference, and waist-hip ratio. 23 BREAST CANCER SURVIVORS REPORT 2014

26 Figure 1. Linear dose-response meta-analysis of BMI before primary breast cancer diagnosis and all cause mortality Author Year per 5 BMI units % Weight RR (95% CI) Conroy S (1.14, 1.46) 7.36 Lu Y (1.00, Chen X (1.01, 1.32) 6.20 Emaus A (1.00, 1.30) 6.56 Hellmann SS (1.05, 1.52) 3.52 Nichols HB (1.06, 1.35) 7.67 West-Wright CN (1.01, 1.31) 6.30 Caan BJ (1.05, 1.52) 342 Dal Maso L (0.98, 1.26) 7.02 Reding KW (1.10, 1.23) Abrahamson PE (1.16, 1.99) 1.66 Kroenke C (1.02, 1.25) 9.41 Zhang S (0.93, 1.39) 2.86 Holmberg L (1.14, 1.89) 1.86 Overall (I-squared = 13.0%, p = 0.31) 1.17 (1.13, 1.21) NOTE: Weights are from random effects analysis Published pooled analysis Results are consistent with the After Breast Cancer Pooling Project, which reported a 17% significant increased risk of all cause mortality for obese women, when compared with normal weight women [73]. An increased risk was observed when stratified by menopausal status, for postmenopausal women (RR 1.16 (95% CI )). For breast cancer mortality, 25 studies reported on BMI, one of which also reported on hip circumference. For BMI, 21 studies compared highest versus lowest groups, 19 reported a positive association, of which 12 were statistically significant, and two a non-significant inverse association when comparing highest versus lowest groups (see Breast Cancer Survivors SLR figure 109). 24 BREAST CANCER SURVIVORS REPORT 2014

27 Seventeen of the 25 studies identified were included in the dose-response meta-analysis for BMI (n = 6,634), which showed a statistically significant increased risk of 18% per 5 kg/m 2 (RR 1.18 (95% CI )) (see Breast Cancer Survivors SLR 2013 figure 113). There was evidence of moderate heterogeneity (I 2 = 47.8%). Stratification by menopausal status showed an increased risk, which was statistically significant in postmenopausal (RR 1.15 (95% CI ); I 2 = 53.6%; 7 studies) but not premenopausal women (RR 1.12 ( ); I 2 = 72.3%; 5 studies). Four studies were not included in the CUP analysis, two due to unadjusted results and two due to insufficient data. For hip circumference, no risk estimate was reported, and no meta-analysis was carried out. Published pooled analysis Results are not consistent with the After Breast Cancer Pooling Project, which reported no significant association between breast cancer mortality in overweight (RR 1.04 (95% CI )) and obese women (RR 1.10 (95% CI )), when compared with normal weight women [73]. For second primary breast cancer, three studies reported on BMI, two showed a significant positive association and one a non-significant inverse association comparing the highest versus lowest groups (see Breast Cancer Survivors SLR figure 126). All three of the studies identified were included in the dose-response meta-analysis (n = 701), which showed a statistically significant increased risk of 21% per 5 kg/m 2 (RR 1.21 (95% CI )) (see Breast Cancer Survivors SLR 2013 figure 127). There was evidence of low heterogeneity (I² = 20.8%). One study was on premenopausal only, while the other two included pre and postmenopausal women. All but one study included more than 100 cases, and all studies were carried out in the United States. Less than 12 months after diagnosis of primary breast cancer The CUP identified 45 follow up studies on body fatness less than 12 months after a diagnosis of primary breast cancer and all cause mortality as the outcome [11, 20, 42, 51, ], 20 studies on body fatness and breast cancer mortality as the outcome [12, 20, 76, 78, 79, 85-87, 89, 92, 97, 100, ], and eight studies on body fatness and second primary breast cancer as the outcome [87, 97, ]. For all cause mortality, 44 studies reported on BMI, three of which also reported on waist circumference, two on hip circumference, and three on waist-hip ratio. One study reported on waist-hip ratio only. 25 BREAST CANCER SURVIVORS REPORT 2014

28 For BMI, 26 studies compared highest versus lowest groups, 22 reported a positive association, of which 14 were statistically significant, and four reported an inverse association, of which one was statistically significant. Ten of the 44 studies identified were included in the dose-response meta-analysis (n = 5,875), which showed a statistically significant increased risk of 11% per 5 kg/m 2 (RR 1.11 (95% CI )) (see figure 2 (Breast Cancer Survivors SLR 2013 figure 97)). There was evidence of substantial heterogeneity (I 2 = 60.5%). There was evidence of non-linearity (p = 0.02). A non-linear dose-response meta-analysis of all data, including those from the underweight patients, showed a slight J-shape relation (see Breast Cancer Survivors SLR 2013 figure 104). All of the 10 included studies reported over 100 deaths and included pre and postmenopausal women. Follow up time was between 4 and 14 years. Fifteen studies were not included in the CUP analysis due to five reporting unadjusted results, and ten reporting insufficient data. For waist circumference, all three studies reported a positive association when comparing the highest versus the lowest groups, one of which was statistically significant (see Breast Cancer Survivors SLR figure 149). All three studies were included in the dose-response meta-analysis (n = 664), which showed no significant association per 10 cm (RR 1.21 (95% CI )) (see Breast Cancer Survivors SLR 2013 figure 150). For waist-hip ratio, all four studies reported a positive association when comparing the highest versus the lowest groups, two of which were statistically significant (see Breast Cancer Survivors SLR figure 152). All four of the studies were included in the dose-response meta-analysis (n = 1,475), which showed a statistically significant increased risk of 31% per 0.1 unit (RR 1.31 (95% CI )) (Breast Cancer Survivors SLR 2013 figure 153). No heterogeneity was observed. All studies included pre and postmenopausal women. No dose-response analysis was carried out on hip circumference. 26 BREAST CANCER SURVIVORS REPORT 2014

29 Figure 2. Linear dose-response meta-analysis of BMI less than 12 months after diagnosis of primary breast cancer and all cause mortality Author Year per 5 BMI units % Weight RR (95% CI) Goodwin PJ (0.94, 1.34) 5.88 Baumgartner AK (0.83, 1.06) 9.13 Azambuja E (1.06, 1.29) Chen X (0.99, 1.29) 8.48 Dawood S (0.96, 1.30) 7.37 Majed B (1.01, 1.10) Vitolins MZ (1.10, 1.34) Abrahamson PE (1.11, 1.45) 8.37 Tao MH (1.01, 1.68) 3.36 Berclaz G (1.02, 1.12) Overall (I-squared = 60.5%, p = 0.007) 1.11 (1.06, 1.17) NOTE: Weights are from random effects analysis For breast cancer mortality, 20 studies reported on BMI, and two on waist-hip ratio. For BMI, 11 studies compared highest versus lowest groups, 10 reported a positive association, of which six were significant, and one reported a non-significant inverse association (see Breast Cancer Survivors SLR 2013 figure 117). Five of the 20 studies identified were included in the dose-response meta-analysis (n = 1,918), which showed a statistically significant increased risk of 18% per 5 kg/m 2 (RR 1.18 (95% CI )) (see Breast Cancer Survivors SLR 2013 figure 121). No heterogeneity was observed. All studies included pre and postmenopausal women, except one that reported on postmenopausal only. All but three included more than 100 deaths. Follow up time in most studies was greater than 4 years. Six studies were not included in the CUP analysis, three due to unadjusted results and three due to insufficient data. For waist-hip ratio, one study reported a non-significant positive association; the other study reported a significant positive association in postmenopausal women and a non-significant positive association in premenopausal women. No meta-analysis was carried out. 27 BREAST CANCER SURVIVORS REPORT 2014

30 For second primary breast cancer, eight studies reported on BMI, all compared highest versus lowest groups, seven reported a positive association, of which one was significant, and one reported a non-significant inverse association. Seven of the eight studies identified in the CUP were included in the dose-response meta-analysis (n = 3,186), which showed a statistically significant increased risk of 13% per 5 kg/m 2 (RR 1.13 (95% CI )) (see Breast Cancer Survivors SLR 2013 figure 130). There was evidence of low heterogeneity (I 2 = 15.2%). All studies included pre and postmenopausal women, and more than 100 cases. Follow up time in most studies was greater than 3 years. Anthropometrical data were either taken from medical records or self-reported. 12 months or more after diagnosis of primary breast cancer The CUP identified five follow up studies on body fatness 12 months or more after a diagnosis of primary breast cancer and all cause mortality as the outcome [44, 48, ]. For all cause mortality, four of the five studies reported a non-significant positive association when comparing the highest versus the lowest, and the other reported a non-significant inverse association (see Breast Cancer Survivors SLR 2013 figure 105). Four of the five studies identified were included in the dose-response meta-analysis (n = 1,703), which showed a statistically significant 8% increased risk per 5 kg/m 2 (RR 1.08 (95% CI )) (see figure 3 (Breast Cancer Survivors SLR 2013 figure 107)). No heterogeneity was observed. All five studies included pre and postmenopausal women and included more than 100 deaths. Follow up time in most studies was greater than 6 years. 28 BREAST CANCER SURVIVORS REPORT 2014

31 Figure 3. Linear dose-response meta-analysis of BMI 12 months or more after diagnosis of primary breast cancer and all cause mortality Author Year per 5 BMI units % Weight RR (95% CI) Flatt S (0.98, 1.27) Nichols HB (0.98, 1.24) Caan BJ (1.92, 1.42) Ewertz M (0.86, 1.13) Overall (I-squared = 0.0%, p = 0.517) 1.08 (1.01, 1.15) NOTE: Weights are from random effects analysis CUP Panel s conclusions There is generally consistent evidence of a positive association between greater body fatness (which the CUP Panel interprets to be marked by BMI) and all cause mortality, breast cancer mortality and development of second primary breast cancer. However, it is not clear to what extent individual studies have fully adjusted for potential confounders such as the tumour type, type of treatment, amount of treatment received, and the dissemination of the disease. The evidence on waist circumference, hip circumference and waist-hip ratio was consistent with that of BMI, but was limited. The CUP Panel therefore concluded: Before a diagnosis of primary breast cancer All cause mortality: The evidence is substantial, consistent, and shows evidence of a dose-response relationship, but the possibility of confounding cannot be excluded. The evidence suggesting that greater body fatness before a diagnosis of primary breast cancer increases risk of all cause mortality is limited. Breast cancer mortality: The evidence is substantial, generally consistent, and shows evidence of a dose-response relationship, but the possibility of confounding cannot be excluded. The evidence suggesting that greater body fatness before a diagnosis of postmenopausal primary breast cancer increases risk of breast cancer mortality is limited. 29 BREAST CANCER SURVIVORS REPORT 2014

32 Second primary breast cancer: The evidence is limited and there is some inconsistency. The evidence suggesting that greater body fatness before a diagnosis of primary breast cancer increases risk of a second primary breast cancer is limited. Less than 12 months after a diagnosis of primary breast cancer All cause mortality: The evidence is substantial, generally consistent, and shows evidence of a dose-response relationship, but the possibility of confounding cannot be excluded. The evidence suggesting that greater body fatness less than 12 months after a diagnosis of primary breast cancer increases risk of all cause mortality is limited. Breast cancer mortality: The evidence is substantial, consistent, and shows evidence of a dose-response relationship, but the possibility of confounding cannot be excluded. The evidence suggesting that greater body fatness less than 12 months after a diagnosis of postmenopausal primary breast cancer increases risk of breast cancer mortality is limited. Second primary breast cancer: The evidence is substantial, generally consistent, and shows evidence of a dose-response relationship, but the possibility of confounding cannot be excluded. The evidence suggesting that greater body fatness less than 12 months after a diagnosis of primary breast cancer increases risk of second primary breast cancer is limited 12 months or more after a diagnosis of primary breast cancer All cause mortality: The evidence is substantial, generally consistent, and shows some evidence of a dose-response relationship, but the possibility of confounding factors cannot be excluded. The evidence suggesting that greater body fatness 12 months or more after a diagnosis of primary breast cancer increases risk of all cause mortality is limited. 30 BREAST CANCER SURVIVORS REPORT 2014

33 6.7 Other Other exposures were evaluated. However, data were either of too low quality, too inconsistent, or the number of studies too few to allow conclusions to be reached. For data on survival in underweight patients versus normal weight patients, the Panel was unable to make a conclusive judgement, as it was not clear if weight had been lost unintentionally or intentionally. The list of exposures judged as limited-no conclusion is summarised in the matrix on page Conclusions The Recommendations for cancer survivors will be reviewed in 2017 as part of the review of the Recommendations for Cancer Prevention. The CUP Panel will review the evidence relating to breast cancer survivors again after The CUP Panel judges that: u In relation to all cause mortality, the evidence suggesting that: A higher consumption of foods containing fibre before or 12 months or more after a diagnosis of primary breast cancer reduces risk is limited. A higher consumption of foods containing soy 12 months or more after a diagnosis of primary breast cancer reduces risk is limited. Consuming a diet higher in total fat before a diagnosis of primary breast cancer increases risk is limited. Consuming a diet higher in saturated fatty acids before a diagnosis of primary breast cancer increases risk is limited. Being physically active before or 12 months or more after a diagnosis of primary breast cancer reduces risk is limited. Greater body fatness before, less than 12 months after, or 12 months or more after, a diagnosis of primary breast cancer increases risk is limited. u In relation to breast cancer mortality, the evidence suggesting that: Being physically active before a diagnosis of primary breast cancer reduces risk is limited. Greater body fatness before, or less than 12 months after a diagnosis of postmenopausal primary breast cancer increases risk is limited. u In relation to second primary breast cancer, the evidence suggesting that: Greater body fatness before, or less than 12 months after a diagnosis of primary breast cancer increases risk is limited. 31 BREAST CANCER SURVIVORS REPORT 2014

34 Acknowledgements Panel Members CHAIR - Alan Jackson CBE MD FRCP FRCPath FRCPCH FAfN University of Southampton Southampton, UK Elisa Bandera MD PhD Rutgers Cancer Institute of New Jersey New Brunswick, NJ, USA Steven Clinton MD PhD The Ohio State University Columbus, OH, USA Edward Giovannucci MD ScD Harvard School of Public Health Boston, MA, USA Stephen Hursting PhD MPH University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Chapel Hill, NC, USA Michael Leitzmann MD DrPH Regensburg University Regensburg, Germany Anne McTiernan MD PhD Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center Seattle, WA, USA Hilary Powers PhD RNutr University of Sheffield Sheffield, UK Inger Thune MD Oslo University Hospital and University of Tromsø Norway Ricardo Uauy MD PhD Instituto de Nutrición y Technología de los Alimentos Santiago, Chile Observers Elio Riboli MD ScM MPH Imperial College London London, UK Isabelle Romieu MD MPH ScD International Agency for Research on Cancer Lyon, France Research Team Teresa Norat PhD Principal Investigator Imperial College London London, UK Doris Chan Research Associate Imperial College London London, UK Ana Rita Vieira Research Associate Imperial College London London, UK Dagfinn Aune Research Associate Imperial College London London, UK Deborah Navarro-Rosenblatt Research Associate Imperial College London London, UK Snieguole Vingeliene Research Associate Imperial College London London, UK Leila Abar Research Associate Imperial College London London, UK 32 BREAST CANCER SURVIVORS REPORT 2014

35 Rui Vieira Data Manager Imperial College London London, UK Until September 2012 Darren Greenwood PhD Statistical Advisor Senior Lecturer in Biostatistics University of Leeds Leeds, UK Advisor to ICL for the protocol development meeting Cancer Survivors Protocol Development Committee CHAIR Lawrence H Kushi ScD Kaiser Permanente, Oakland CA, USA Marie-Christine Boutron-Ruault MD, PhD INSERM, E3N-EPIC Group Institut Gustave Roussy Villejuif, France Bas Bueno-de-Mesquita MD MPH PhD National Institute for Public Health Bilthoven, The Netherlands Josette Chor PhD MBBS FHKAM School of Public Health and Primary Care Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Wendy Demark-Wahnefried PhD RD University of Alabama at Birmingham Comprehensive Cancer Centre Birmingham AL, USA WCRF Executive Kate Allen PhD Executive Director, Science & Public Affairs WCRF International Deirdre McGinley-Gieser Senior Vice President for Programs AICR Secretariat HEAD - Rachel Thompson PhD RNutr Head of Research Interpretation WCRF International Susan Higginbotham PhD RD Vice President of Research AICR Rachel Marklew RNutr Science Programme Manager (Communications) WCRF International Until February 2014 Amy Mullee PhD Science Programme Manager (Research Interpretation) WCRF International From January 2014 Martin Wiseman FRCP FRCPath FAfN Medical and Scientific Adviser WCRF International Giota Mitrou PhD Head of Research Funding and Science Activities WCRF International Michelle Harvie PhD RD University of Manchester, UK 33 BREAST CANCER SURVIVORS REPORT 2014

36 Abbreviations BMI CUP GRADE RCT RR SLR n Body Mass Index Continuous Update Project Grading of Recommendation Assessment, Development and Evaluation Randomised Controlled Trial Relative Risk Systematic Literature Review Number of Cases 34 BREAST CANCER SURVIVORS REPORT 2014

37 Glossary Adjustment A statistical tool for taking into account the effect of known confounders. Bias In epidemiology, deviation of an observed result from the true value in a particular direction (systematic error) due to factors pertaining to the observer or to study design or analysis. Body mass index (BMI) Body weight expressed in kilograms divided by the square of height expressed in metres (BMI = kg/m 2 ). It provides an indirect measure of body fatness. Also called Quetelet s Index. Carcinoma Malignant tumour derived from epithelial cells, usually with the ability to spread into the surrounding tissue (invasion) and produce secondary tumours (metastases). Carcinoma in situ The first stage of carcinoma in which the malignant tumour has not spread beyond the epithelium. Case-control study An epidemiological study in which the participants are chosen based on their disease or condition (cases) or lack of it (controls) to test whether past or recent history of an exposure such as smoking, genetic profile, alcohol consumption, or dietary intake is associated with the risk of disease. Cohort study A study of a (usually large) group of people whose characteristics are recorded at recruitment (and sometimes later), followed up for a period of time during which outcomes of interest are noted. Differences in the frequency of outcomes (such as disease) within the cohort are calculated in relation to different levels of exposure to factors of interest, for example smoking, alcohol consumption, diet, and exercise. Differences in the likelihood of a particular outcome are presented as the relative risk comparing one level of exposure to another. Confidence interval (CI) A measure of the uncertainty in an estimate, usually reported as 95% confidence interval (CI), which is the range of values within which there is a 95% chance that the true value lies. For example the effect of smoking on the relative risk of lung cancer in one study may be expressed as 10 (95% CI 5 15). This means that in this particular analysis, the estimate of the relative risk was calculated as 10, and that there is a 95% chance that the true value lies between 5 and BREAST CANCER SURVIVORS REPORT 2014

38 Confounder A variable, within a specific epidemiological study, that is associated with an exposure, is also a risk factor for the disease, and is not in the causal pathway from the exposure to the disease. If not adjusted for, this factor may distort the apparent exposure disease relationship. An example is that smoking is related both to coffee drinking and to risk of lung cancer and thus, unless accounted for (controlled) in studies, might make coffee drinking appear falsely as a possible cause of lung cancer. Confounding factor (see confounder) Dietary fibre Constituents of plant cell walls that are not digested in the small intestine. Several methods of analysis are used, which identify different components. The many constituents that are variously included in the definitions have different chemical and physiological features that are not easily defined under a single term. The different analytical methods do not generally characterise the physiological impact of foods or diets. Non-starch polysaccharides are a consistent feature and are fermented by colonic bacteria to produce energy and short chain fatty acids including butyrate. The term dietary fibre is increasingly seen as a concept describing a particular aspect of some dietary patterns. Egger s test A statistical test for small study effects such as publication bias. Exposure A factor to which an individual may be exposed to varying degrees, such as intake of a food, level or type of physical activity, or aspect of body composition. Fatty acid A carboxylic acid with a carbon chain of varying length, which may be either saturated (no double bonds) or unsaturated (one or more double bonds). Three fatty acids attached to a glycerol backbone make up a triglyceride, the usual form of fat in foods and adipose tissue. Forest plot A simple visual representation of the amount of variation between the results of the individual studies in a meta-analysis. Their construction begins with plotting the observed exposure effect of each individual study, which is represented as the centre of a square. Horizontal lines run through this to show the 95% confidence interval. Different sized squares may be plotted for each of the individual studies, the size of the box increasing with the size of the study and the weight that it takes in the analysis. The overall summary estimate of effect and its confidence interval can also be added to the bottom of this plot, if appropriate, and this is represented as a diamond. The centre of the diamond is the pooled summary estimate and the horizontal tips are the confidence intervals. 36 BREAST CANCER SURVIVORS REPORT 2014

39 Heterogeneity A measure of difference between the results of different studies addressing a similar question. In meta-analysis, the degree of heterogeneity may be calculated statistically using the I² test. Hormone A substance secreted by specialised cells that affects the structure and/or function of other cells or tissues in another part of the body. Incidence rates The number of new cases of a condition appearing during a specified period of time expressed relative to the size of the population, for example 60 new cases of breast cancer per 100,000 women per year. Lesion A general term for any abnormality of cells or tissues, including those due to cancerous change. Malignant A tumour with the capacity to spread to surrounding tissue or to other sites in the body. Meta-analysis The process of using statistical methods to combine the results of different studies. Metabolic equivalent (MET) One MET equals the resting metabolic rate, measured as the rate of oxygen consumption, which is approximately 3.5 millilitres of oxygen per kilogram body weight per minute. Equivalent to physical activity ratio. Nested case-control study A case-control study in which cases and controls are drawn from the population of a cohort study; often used for studies of prospectively collected information or biological samples. Pathogenesis The origin and development of disease. The mechanisms by which causal factors increase the risk of disease. Peer review The scrutiny of scientific papers by one or more suitably qualified scientists. Physical activity Any movement using skeletal muscles. 37 BREAST CANCER SURVIVORS REPORT 2014

40 Pooled analysis (see pooling) Pooling In epidemiology, a type of study where original individual-level data from two or more original studies are obtained, combined, and re-analysed. Publication bias A bias in the overall balance of evidence in the published literature due to selective publication. Not all studies carried out are published, and those that are may differ from those that are not. Publication bias can be tested for with either Begg s or Egger s tests. Randomised controlled trial (RCT) A study in which a comparison is made between one intervention (often a treatment or prevention strategy) and another (control). Sometimes the control group receives an inactive agent (a placebo). Groups are randomised to one intervention or the other, so that any difference in outcome between the two groups can be ascribed with confidence to the intervention. Neither investigators nor subjects usually know to which condition they have been randomised; this is called double-blinding. Relative risk (RR) The ratio of the rate of disease or death among people exposed to a factor, compared to the rate among the unexposed, usually used in cohort studies. Saturated fatty acids Fatty acids that do not contain any double bonds. Socioeconomic status A combined product of social and economic status reflecting education level, personal wealth, class, and associated factors. Statistical significance The probability that any observed result might not have occurred by chance. In most epidemiologic work, a study result whose probability is less than 5% (p < 0.05) is considered sufficiently unlikely to have occurred by chance to justify the designation statistically significant (see confidence interval). Systematic literature review (SLR) A means of compiling and assessing published evidence that addresses a scientific question with a predefined protocol and transparent methods. Waist-hip circumference ratio A measure of body shape indicating fat distribution. 38 BREAST CANCER SURVIVORS REPORT 2014

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44 69. Galanis, D.J., et al., Anthropometric predictors of breast cancer incidence and survival in a multi-ethnic cohort of female residents of Hawaii, United States. Cancer Causes Control, (2): p Trentham-Dietz, A., et al., Breast cancer risk factors and second primary malignancies among women with breast cancer. Breast Cancer Research & Treatment, (2): p Li, C.I., et al., Epidemiologic and molecular risk factors for contralateral breast cancer among young women. British Journal of Cancer, (3): p Bernstein, J.L., et al., Risk factors predicting the incidence of second primary breast cancer among women diagnosed with a first primary breast cancer. Am J Epidemiol, (8): p Kwan, M.L., et al., Pre-diagnosis body mass index and survival after breast cancer in the After Breast Cancer Pooling Project. Breast Cancer Res Treat, (2): p Goodwin, P.J., et al., Insulin- and obesity-related variables in early-stage breast cancer: Correlations and time course of prognostic associations. Journal of Clinical Oncology, (2): p Jung, S.Y., et al., Factors associated with mortality after breast cancer metastasis. Cancer Causes and Control, (1): p Sparano, J.A., et al., Race and hormone receptor-positive breast cancer outcomes in a randomized chemotherapy trial. Journal of the National Cancer Institute, (5): p Ademuyiwa, F.O., et al., Impact of body mass index on clinical outcomes in triple-negative breast cancer. Cancer, (18): p Ewertz, M., et al., Effect of obesity on prognosis after early-stage breast cancer. Journal of Clinical Oncology, (1): p Maskarinec, G., et al., Factors affecting survival among women with breast cancer in Hawaii. Journal of Women s Health, (2): p Von Drygalski, A., et al., Obesity is an independent predictor of poor survival in metastatic breast cancer: Retrospective analysis of a patient cohort whose treatment included highdose chemotherapy and autologous stem cell support. International Journal of Breast Cancer, (1). 81. Baumgartner, A.K., et al., Breast cancer after hormone replacement therapy - does prognosis differ in perimenopausal and postmenopausal women? Breast, (5): p Azambuja, E., et al., The effect of body mass index on overall and disease-free survival in node-positive breast cancer patients treated with docetaxel and doxorubicin-containing adjuvant chemotherapy: the experience of the BIG trial. Breast Cancer Res Treat, (1): p Clough-Gorr, K.M., P.A. Ganz, and R.A. Silliman, Older breast cancer survivors: factors associated with self-reported symptoms of persistent lymphedema over 7 years of follow-up. Breast Journal, (2): p Thivat, E., et al., Weight change during chemotherapy changes the prognosis in non metastatic breast cancer for the worse. BMC Cancer, (Medline 1_3000.txt): p Majed, B., et al., Is obesity an independent prognosis factor in woman breast cancer? Breast Cancer Research & Treatment, (2): p Vitolins, M.Z., G.G. Kimmick, and L.D. Case, BMI influences prognosis following surgery and adjuvant chemotherapy for lymph node positive breast cancer. Breast Journal, (4): p Dignam, J.J., et al., Effects of obesity and race on prognosis in lymph node-negative, estrogen receptor-negative breast cancer. Breast Cancer Research & Treatment, (3): p Tao, M.H., et al., Association of overweight with breast cancer survival. American Journal of Epidemiology, (2): p Moon, H.G., W. Han, and D.Y. Noh, Underweight and breast cancer recurrence and death: a report from the Korean Breast Cancer Society. Journal of Clinical Oncology, (35): p Dawood, S., et al., Prognostic value of body mass index in locally advanced breast cancer. Clinical Cancer Research, (6): p BREAST CANCER SURVIVORS REPORT 2014

45 91. Labidi, S.I., et al., Inflammatory breast cancer in Tunisia in the era of multimodality therapy. Annals of Oncology, (3): p Litton, J.K., et al., Relationship between obesity and pathologic response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy among women with operable breast cancer. Journal of Clinical Oncology, (25): p Gonzalez-Angulo, A.M., et al., Women age < or = 35 years with primary breast carcinoma: disease features at presentation. Cancer, (12): p Loi, S., et al., Obesity and outcomes in premenopausal and postmenopausal breast cancer. Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention, (7): p Berclaz, G., et al., Body mass index as a prognostic feature in operable breast cancer: the International Breast Cancer Study Group experience. Annals of Oncology, (6): p Carmichael, A.R., et al., Does obesity compromise survival in women with breast cancer? Breast, (2): p Dignam, J.J., et al., Obesity, tamoxifen use, and outcomes in women with estrogen receptorpositive early-stage breast cancer. Journal of the National Cancer Institute, (19): p Kumar, N.B., et al., Android obesity at diagnosis and breast carcinoma survival: Evaluation of the effects of anthropometric variables at diagnosis, including body composition and body fat distribution and weight gain during life span,and survival from breast carcinoma. Cancer, (12): p Camoriano, J.K., et al., Weight change in women treated with adjuvant therapy or observed following mastectomy for node-positive breast cancer. Journal of Clinical Oncology, (8): p Allin, K.H., et al., Elevated pre-treatment levels of plasma C-reactive protein are associated with poor prognosis after breast cancer: a cohort study. Breast Cancer Res, (3): p. R Schuetz, F., et al., Reduced incidence of distant metastases and lower mortality in 1072 patients with breast cancer with a history of hormone replacement therapy. American Journal of Obstetrics & Gynecology, (4): p Singh, A.K., et al., Obesity augmented breast cancer risk: a potential risk factor for Indian women. Journal of Surgical Oncology, (3): p Menon, K.V., et al., Body mass index, height and cumulative menstrual cycles at the time of diagnosis are not risk factors for poor outcome in breast cancer. Breast, (6): p Lethaby, A.E., et al., Survival of women with node negative breast cancer in the Auckland region. New Zealand Medical Journal, (1029): p Albain, K.S., et al., Proportional hazards and recursive partitioning and amalgamation analyses of the Southwest Oncology Group node-positive adjuvant CMFVP breast cancer data base: a pilot study. Breast Cancer Research & Treatment, (3): p Gordon, N.H., et al., Socioeconomic factors and race in breast cancer recurrence and survival. American Journal of Epidemiology, (6): p Kimura, M., Obesity as prognostic factors in breast cancer. Diabetes Res Clin Pract, Suppl 1: p. S Kyogoku, S., et al., Survival of breast-cancer patients and body size indicators. International Journal of Cancer, (5): p Suissa, S., et al., Body size and breast cancer prognosis: a statistical explanation of the discrepancies. Cancer Research, (11): p Abe, R., et al., Biological characteristics of breast cancer in obesity. Tohoku J Exp Med, (4): p Donegan, W.L., S. Jayich, and M.R. Koehler, The prognostic implications of obesity for the surgical cure of breast cancer. Breast Dis Breast, : p Mohle-Boetani, J.C., et al., Body size, reproductive factors, and breast cancer survival. Preventive Medicine, (5): p BREAST CANCER SURVIVORS REPORT 2014

46 113. Taylor, S.G.t., et al., Six-year results of the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group trial of observation versus CMFP versus CMFPT in postmenopausal patients with node-positive breast cancer. J Clin Oncol, (7): p Katoh, A., V.J. Watzlaf, and F. D Amico, An examination of obesity and breast cancer survival in post-menopausal women. British Journal of Cancer, (5): p Chang, S., et al., Inflammatory breast cancer survival: the role of obesity and menopausal status at diagnosis. Breast Cancer Research & Treatment, (2): p Hebert, J.R., T.G. Hurley, and Y. Ma, The effect of dietary exposures on recurrence and mortality in early stage breast cancer. Breast Cancer Research & Treatment, (1): p Newman, S.C., A.W. Lees, and H.J. Jenkins, The effect of body mass index and oestrogen receptor level on survival of breast cancer patients. International Journal of Epidemiology, (3): p Mason, B.H., et al., Season of tumour detection influences factors predicting survival of patients with breast cancer. Breast Cancer Research & Treatment, (1): p Sestak, I., et al., Effect of body mass index on recurrences in tamoxifen and anastrozole treated women: an exploratory analysis from the ATAC trial. Journal of Clinical Oncology, (21): p Olsson, A., et al., Body mass index and breast cancer survival in relation to the introduction of mammographic screening. European Journal of Surgical Oncology, (12): p Bastarrachea, J., et al., Obesity as an adverse prognostic factor for patients receiving adjuvant chemotherapy for breast cancer. Ann Intern Med, (1): p Borugian, M.J., et al., Waist-to-hip ratio and breast cancer mortality. American Journal of Epidemiology, (10): p Coates, R.J., et al., Race, nutritional status, and survival from breast cancer. J Natl Cancer Inst, (21): p Brooks, J.D., et al., Body mass index and risk of second primary breast cancer: The WECARE Study. Breast Cancer Research and Treatment, (2): p Majed, B., et al., Increased risk of contralateral breast cancers among overweight and obese women: a time-dependent association. Breast Cancer Research & Treatment, (3): p Li, C.I., et al., Relationship between potentially modifiable lifestyle factors and risk of second primary contralateral breast cancer among women diagnosed with estrogen receptor-positive invasive breast cancer. Journal of Clinical Oncology, (32): p Cook, L.S., et al., A population-based study of contralateral breast cancer following a first primary breast cancer (Washington, United States). Cancer Causes Control, (3): p Storm, H.H., et al., Adjuvant radiotherapy and risk of contralateral breast cancer. J Natl Cancer Inst, (16): p Horn, P.L. and W.D. Thompson, Risk of contralateral breast cancer: associations with factors related to initial breast cancer. American Journal of Epidemiology, (2): p Pierce, J.P., et al., Influence of a diet very high in vegetables, fruit, and fiber and low in fat on prognosis following treatment for breast cancer: the Women s Healthy Eating and Living (WHEL) randomized trial. JAMA, (3): p Flatt, S.W., et al., Low to moderate alcohol intake is not associated with increased mortality after breast cancer. Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention, (3): p Barnett, G.C., et al., Risk factors for the incidence of breast cancer: do they affect survival from the disease? Journal of Clinical Oncology, (20): p Ewertz, M., Breast cancer in Denmark - Incidence, risk factors, and characteristics of survival. Acta Oncologica, (6): p Ewertz, M., et al., Survival of breast cancer patients in relation to factors which affect the risk of developing breast cancer. International Journal of Cancer, (4): p BREAST CANCER SURVIVORS REPORT 2014

47 Appendix 1 - Breast Cancer Prevention 2010 report matrices FOOD, NUTRITION, PHYSICAL ACTIVITY AND BREAST CANCER (PREMENOPAUSE) 2010 Convincing Probable DECREASES RISK Lactation Body fatness INCREASES RISK Alcoholic drinks Adult attained height 1 Greater birth weight Limited - suggestive Physical activity 2 Limited - no conclusion Dietary fibre; vegetables and fruits; soya and soya products; meat; fish; milk and dairy products; total fat; folate; vitamin D; calcium; glycaemic index; dietary patterns; adult weight gain; abdominal fatness Substantial effect on risk unlikely None identified 1 Adult attained height is unlikely directly to modify the risk of cancer. It is a marker for genetic, environmental, hormonal, and also nutritional factors affecting growth during the period from preconception to completion of linear growth (see chapter Second Expert Report). 2 Physical activity of all types: occupational, household, transport and recreational. FOOD, NUTRITION, PHYSICAL ACTIVITY AND BREAST CANCER (POSTMENOPAUSE) 2010 Convincing Probable DECREASES RISK Lactation Physical activity 2 INCREASES RISK Alcoholic drinks Body fatness Adult attained height 1 Abdominal fatness Adult weight gain Limited - suggestive Total fat Limited - no conclusion Dietary fibre; vegetables and fruits; soya and soya products; meat; fish; milk and dairy products; folate; vitamin D; calcium; selenium; glycaemic index; dietary patterns; birth weight; energy intake Substantial effect on risk unlikely None identified 1 Adult attained height is unlikely directly to modify the risk of cancer. It is a marker for genetic, environmental, hormonal, and also nutritional factors affecting growth during the period from preconception to completion of linear growth (see chapter Second Expert Report). 2 Physical activity of all types: occupational, household, transport and recreational. 45 BREAST CANCER SURVIVORS REPORT 2014

48 Appendix 2 - Criteria for grading evidence for Breast Cancer Survivors A. The criteria The grades are convincing, probable, limited-suggestive, limited-no conclusion, and substantial effect on risk unlikely. The Panel s recommendations for Breast Cancer Survivors will be made using evidence for a that is judged to demonstrate a convincing or probable causal effect, or substantial effect on risk unlikely. CONVINCING (requires RCT evidence) These criteria are for evidence strong enough to support a judgment of a convincing effect or causal relationship, which justifies goals and recommendations designed to reduce second primary breast cancer occurrence and mortality. 1. Evidence of an effect from a meta-analysis of RCTs or at least two well-designed independent RCTs a) No substantial unexplained heterogeneity b) No evidence of publication bias c) Note: strong and plausible mechanistic evidence is desirable but not required PROBABLE These criteria are for evidence strong enough to support a judgment of a probable effect or causal relationship, which would generally justify goals and recommendations designed to reduce second primary breast cancer occurrence and mortality. Note: Well-designed cohort studies must demonstrate adequate control for potential confounders including the type of tumour, type of treatment, amount of treatment received, and the dissemination of the disease. 1. Evidence of an effect from a meta-analysis of RCTs or two well-designed RCTs a) Some unexplained heterogeneity allowed b) No evidence of publication bias c) Note: strong and plausible mechanistic evidence is desirable but not required OR 2. Evidence of an effect from one well-designed RCT and one well-designed cohort study a) No unexplained heterogeneity b) No evidence of publication bias c) Strong and plausible mechanistic evidence OR 3. Evidence from at least one well-designed pooled analysis of follow-up studies a) No unexplained heterogeneity b) No evidence of publication bias c) Strong and plausible mechanistic evidence OR 4. Evidence from at least two independent well-designed follow-up studies a) No unexplained heterogeneity b) No evidence of publication bias c) Strong and plausible mechanistic evidence 46 BREAST CANCER SURVIVORS REPORT 2014

49 LIMITED SUGGESTIVE These criteria are for evidence that is too limited to permit a probable or convincing judgement, but where there is evidence suggestive of a direction of effect. The evidence may have methodological flaws, or be limited in amount, but shows a generally consistent direction of effect. This level of evidence would not be used to justify making specific recommendations. Evidence from RCTs 1. Evidence from a meta-analysis of RCTs or at least two well-designed RCTs but the confidence interval may include the null a) Some unexplained heterogeneity allowed b) No evidence of publication bias c) Strong and plausible mechanistic evidence is not required OR 2. Evidence from one well-designed RCT but the confidence interval may include the null a) No unexplained heterogeneity b) No evidence of publication bias c) Strong and plausible mechanistic evidence OR Evidence from pooled follow-up studies 3. Evidence of an effect from a pooled analysis of follow-up studies a) Some unexplained heterogeneity allowed b) No evidence of publication bias c) Strong and plausible mechanistic evidence not required OR 4. Evidence from a pooled analysis of follow-up studies but the confidence interval may include the null a) Some unexplained heterogeneity allowed b) No evidence of publication bias c) Strong and plausible mechanistic evidence OR Evidence from follow-up studies 5. Evidence of an effect from at least one follow-up study a) No unexplained heterogeneity b) No evidence of publication bias c) Strong and plausible mechanistic evidence OR 6. Evidence of an effect from at least two follow-up studies a) No unexplained heterogeneity b) No evidence of publication bias c) Strong and plausible mechanistic evidence not required OR 7. Evidence from at least two follow-up studies but the confidence interval may include the null a) Some unexplained heterogeneity allowed b) No evidence of publication bias c) Strong and plausible mechanistic evidence 47 BREAST CANCER SURVIVORS REPORT 2014

50 LIMITED NO CONCLUSION (any of the following) Evidence is so limited that no firm conclusions can be made. Evidence may be judged limited-no conclusion for any of the following reasons: Too few studies available Inconsistency of direction of effect Poor quality of studies SUBSTANTIAL EFFECT ON RISK UNLIKELY Evidence is strong enough to support a judgement that a particular exposure is unlikely to have a substantial effect or causal relation to a cancer outcome. The evidence should be robust enough to be unlikely to be modified in the foreseeable future. Note: evidence of absence of an effect is required for each time frame being studied (before diagnosis, less than 12 months after diagnosis, and 12 months or more after diagnosis). All of the following are required: (Note: Well-designed cohort studies must demonstrate adequate control for potential confounders including the type of tumour, type of treatment, amount of treatment received, and the dissemination of the disease). Evidence of the absence of an effect (a summary estimate close to 1.0) from any of the following: a) a meta-analysis of RCTs b) at least two well-designed independent RCTs c) a well-designed pooled analysis of follow-up studies d) at least two well-designed1 follow-up studies No substantial unexplained heterogeneity Absence of a dose response relationship (in follow-up studies) Absence of strong and plausible mechanistic evidence SPECIAL UPGRADING FACTORS Presence of a plausible biological gradient ( dose response ) in the association. Such a gradient need not be linear or even in the same direction across the different levels of exposure, so long as this can be explained plausibly. A particularly large summary effect size (a relative risk of 2.0 or more, or 0.5 or less, depending on the unit of exposure), after appropriate control for confounders. Evidence from appropriately controlled experiments demonstrating one or more plausible and specific mechanisms All plausible known residual confounders or biases including reverse causation would reduce a demonstrated effect, or suggest a spurious effect when results show no effect. Special considerations important for evidence for breast cancer survivors include the following potential confounding variables - the type of tumour, type of treatment, amount of treatment received, and the dissemination of the disease. B. Background The following study designs are included in the protocol for the Systematic Literature Review being conducted for studies of breast cancer survivors 1. Follow up of breast cancer cases from case-control studies 2. Follow up of breast cancer cases from cohort studies 3. Cohort studies of cancer survivors 4. Ancillary analyses from randomised controlled trials (RCTs) 5. RCTs with follow up of at least 6 months* 6. Published meta-analyses and pooled analyses are searched for by the team at Imperial College London and included in the Systematic Literature Reviews (SLRs) but are not entered into the database. 48 BREAST CANCER SURVIVORS REPORT 2014

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