Cancer Statistics, 2007 Ahmedin Jemal, Rebecca Siegel, Elizabeth Ward, Taylor Murray, Jiaquan Xu and Michael J. Thun

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1 Ahmedin Jemal, Rebecca Siegel, Elizabeth Ward, Taylor Murray, Jiaquan Xu and Michael J. Thun CA Cancer J Clin 2007;57;43-66 This information is current as of August 3, 2007 The online version of this article, along with updated information and services, is located on the World Wide Web at: To subscribe to the print issue of CA: A Cancer Journal for Clinicians, go to (US individuals only): CA: A Cancer Journal for Clinicians is published six times per year for the American Cancer Society by Lippincott Williams & Wilkins. A bimonthly publication, it has been published continuously since November CA is owned, published, and trademarked by the American Cancer Society, 1599 Clifton Road, NE, Atlanta, Georgia ( American Cancer Society, Inc.) All rights reserved. Print ISSN: Online ISSN:

2 CA Cancer J Clin 2007;57:43 66 Cancer Statistics, 2007 Ahmedin Jemal, DVM, PhD; Rebecca Siegel, MPH; Elizabeth Ward, PhD; Taylor Murray; Jiaquan Xu; Michael J. Thun, MD, MS ABSTRACT Each year, the American Cancer Society (ACS) estimates the number of new cancer cases and deaths expected in the United States in the current year and compiles the most recent data on cancer incidence, mortality, and survival based on incidence data from the National Cancer Institute, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries and mortality data from the National Center for Health Statistics. This report considers incidence data through 2003 and mortality data through Incidence and death rates are age-standardized to the 2000 US standard million population. A total of 1,444,920 new cancer cases and 559,650 deaths for cancers are projected to occur in the United States in Notable trends in cancer incidence and mortality rates include stabilization of the age-standardized, delay-adjusted incidence rates for all cancers combined in men from 1995 through 2003; a continuing increase in the incidence rate by 0.3% per year in women; and a 13.6% total decrease in age-standardized cancer death rates among men and women combined between 1991 and This report also examines cancer incidence, mortality, and survival by site, sex, race/ethnicity, geographic area, and calendar year, as well as the proportionate contribution of selected sites to the overall trends. While the absolute number of cancer deaths decreased for the second consecutive year in the United States (by more than 3,000 from 2003 to 2004) and much progress has been made in reducing mortality rates and improving survival, cancer still accounts for more deaths than heart disease in persons under age 85 years. Further progress can be accelerated by supporting new discoveries and by applying existing cancer control knowledge across all segments of the population. (CA Cancer J Clin 2007;57:43 66.) American Cancer Society, Inc., INTRODUCTION Cancer is a major public health problem in the United States and other developed countries. Currently, one in four deaths in the United States is due to cancer. In this article, we provide an overview of cancer statistics, including updated incidence, mortality, and survival rates, and expected number of new cancer cases and deaths in MATERIALS AND METHODS Dr. Jemal is Strategic Director, Cancer Occurrence, Department of Epidemiology and Surveillance Research, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, GA. Ms. Siegel is Manager, Surveillance Information Services, Department of Epidemiology and Surveillance Research, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, GA. Dr. Ward is Managing Director, Surveillance Research, Department of Epidemiology and Surveillance Research, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, GA. Mr. Murray is Manager, Surveillance Data Systems, Department of Epidemiology and Surveillance Research, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, GA. Mr. Xu is Analyst, Mortality Statistics Branch, Division of Vital Statistics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Hyattsville, MD. Dr. Thun is Vice President, Department of Epidemiology and Surveillance Research, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, GA. This article is available online at Data Sources Mortality data from 1930 to 2004 in the United States were obtained from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). 1 Incidence data for long-term trends (1975 to 2003), 5-year relative survival rates, and data on lifetime probability of developing cancer were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program of the National Cancer Institute, covering about 26% of the US population. 2,3,4,5 Incidence data (1995 to 2003) for projecting new cancer cases were obtained from cancer registries that participate in the SEER program or the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) s National Program of Cancer Registries (NPCR), through the North American Associations of Central Cancer Registries (NAACCR). State-specific incidence rates were abstracted Volume 57 Number 1 January/February

3 from Cancer in North America ( ) Volume One, 6 based on data collected by cancer registries participating in the SEER program and NPCR. Population data were obtained from the US Census Bureau. 7 Causes of death were coded and classified according to the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-8, ICD-9, and ICD-10). 8,9,10 Cancer cases were classified according to the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology. 11 Estimated New Cancer Cases The precise number of cancer cases diagnosed each year in the nation and in every state is unknown because complete cancer registration has not yet been achieved in some states. Since the American Cancer Society (ACS) began producing estimates of new cancer cases in the current year, the method has been refined several times to take advantage of improvements in data and statistical methods. Beginning with 2007, we are using a new projection method described by Pickle et al 12 in an accompanying article in this issue of CA. The new method is a spatiotemporal model based on incidence data from 1995 through 2003 from 41 states that met NAACCR s high-quality data standard for incidence, covering about 86% of the US population. This contrasts with the previous quadratic autoregressive model based on incidence data from the nine oldest SEER registries, covering about 10% of the US population. Furthermore, the new method considers geographic variations in socio-demographic and lifestyle factors, medical settings, and cancer screening behaviors as predictors of incidence, and accounts for expected delays in case reporting. Estimated Cancer Deaths We used the state-space prediction method 13 to estimate the number of cancer deaths expected to occur in the United States and in each state in the year Projections are based on underlying cause-of-death from death certificates as reported to the NCHS. 1 This model projects the number of cancer deaths expected to occur in 2007 based on the number that occurred each year from 1969 to 2004 in the United States and in each state separately. Other Statistics We provide mortality statistics for the leading causes of death as well as deaths from cancer in the year Causes of death for 2004 were coded and classified according to ICD This report also provides updated statistics on trends in cancer incidence and mortality rates, the probability of developing cancer, and 5-year relative survival rates for selected cancer sites based on data from 1975 through All age-adjusted incidence and death rates are standardized to the 2000 US standard population and expressed per 100,000 population. The long-term incidence rates and trends (1975 to 2003) are adjusted for delays in reporting where possible. Delayed reporting affects the most recent 1 to 3 years of incidence data (in this case, 2001 to 2003), especially for cancers such as melanoma and prostate that are frequently diagnosed in outpatient settings. The National Cancer Institute (NCI) has developed a method to account for expected reporting delays in SEER registries for all cancer sites combined and several specific cancer sites when long-term incidence trends are analyzed. 14 Delay-adjusted trends provide a more accurate assessment of trends in the most recent years for which data are available. SELECTED FINDINGS Expected Numbers of New Cancer Cases Table 1 presents estimated numbers of new cases of invasive cancer expected among men and women in the United States in The overall estimate of about 1.44 million new cases does not include carcinoma in situ of any site except urinary bladder, nor does it include basal cell and squamous cell cancers of the skin. More than 1 million additional cases of basal cell and squamous cell skin cancer, about 62,030 cases of breast carcinoma in situ, and 48,290 cases of in situ melanoma are expected to be newly diagnosed in Because of the introduction of a new projection method, estimates have been affected for many individual cancer sites, particularly for leukemia, female breast, lung, and prostate cancers. The estimated numbers of new cancer cases for each state and selected cancer sites are shown in Table CA A Cancer Journal for Clinicians

4 CA Cancer J Clin 2007;57:43 66 TABLE 1 Estimated New Cancer Cases and Deaths by Sex, US, 2007* Estimated New Cases Estimated Deaths Both Sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female All Sites 1,444, , , , , ,100 Oral cavity & pharynx 34,360 24,180 10,180 7,550 5,180 2,370 Tongue 9,800 6,930 2,870 1,830 1, Mouth 10,660 6,480 4,180 1,860 1, Pharynx 11,800 9,310 2,490 2,180 1, Other oral cavity 2,100 1, ,680 1, Digestive system 271, , , ,710 74,500 60,210 Esophagus 15,560 12,130 3,430 13,940 10,900 3,040 Stomach 21,260 13,000 8,260 11,210 6,610 4,600 Small intestine 5,640 2,940 2,700 1, Colon 112,340 55,290 57,050 52,180 26,000 26,180 Rectum 41,420 23,840 17,580 Anus, anal canal, & anorectum 4,650 1,900 2, Liver & intrahepatic bile duct 19,160 13,650 5,510 16,780 11,280 5,500 Gallbladder & other biliary 9,250 4,380 4,870 3,250 1,260 1,990 Pancreas 37,170 18,830 18,340 33,370 16,840 16,530 Other digestive organs 4,800 1,430 3,370 2, ,420 Respiratory system 229, , , ,840 92,910 71,930 Larynx 11,300 8,960 2,340 3,660 2, Lung & bronchus 213, ,760 98, ,390 89,510 70,880 Other respiratory organs 4,720 3,370 1, Bones & joints 2,370 1,330 1,040 1, Soft tissue (including heart) 9,220 5,050 4,170 3,560 1,840 1,720 Skin (excluding basal & squamous) 65,050 37,070 27,980 10,850 7,140 3,710 Melanoma-skin 59,940 33,910 26,030 8,110 5,220 2,890 Other nonepithelial skin 5,110 3,160 1,950 2,740 1, Breast 180,510 2, ,480 40, ,460 Genital system 306, ,090 78,290 55,740 27,720 28,020 Uterine cervix 11,150 11,150 3,670 3,670 Uterine corpus 39,080 39,080 7,400 7,400 Ovary 22,430 22,430 15,280 15,280 Vulva 3,490 3, Vagina & other genital, female 2,140 2, Prostate 218, ,890 27,050 27,050 Testis 7,920 7, Penis & other genital, male 1,280 1, Urinary system 120,400 82,960 37,440 27,340 18,100 9,240 Urinary bladder 67,160 50,040 17,120 13,750 9,630 4,120 Kidney & renal pelvis 51,190 31,590 19,600 12,890 8,080 4,810 Ureter & other urinary organs 2,050 1, Eye & orbit 2,340 1,310 1, Brain & other nervous system 20,500 11,170 9,330 12,740 7,150 5,590 Endocrine system 35,520 9,040 26,480 2,320 1,030 1,290 Thyroid 33,550 8,070 25,480 1, Other endocrine 1, , Lymphoma 71,380 38,670 32,710 19,730 10,370 9,360 Hodgkin lymphoma 8,190 4,470 3,720 1, Non-Hodgkin lymphoma 63,190 34,200 28,990 18,660 9,600 9,060 Multiple myeloma 19,900 10,960 8,940 10,790 5,550 5,240 Leukemia 44,240 24,800 19,440 21,790 12,320 9,470 Acute lymphocytic leukemia 5,200 3,060 2,140 1, Chronic lymphocytic leukemia 15,340 8,960 6,380 4,500 2,560 1,940 Acute myeloid leukemia 13,410 7,060 6,350 8,990 5,020 3,970 Chronic myeloid leukemia 4,570 2,570 2, Other leukemia 5,720 3,150 2,570 6,390 3,680 2,710 Other & unspecified primary sites 32,100 15,720 16,380 45,230 24,440 20,790 *Rounded to the nearest 10; estimated new cases exclude basal and squamous cell skin cancers and in situ carcinomas except urinary bladder. About 62,030 female carcinoma in situ of the breast and 48,290 melanoma in situ will be newly diagnosed in Estimated deaths for colon and rectum cancers are combined. More deaths than cases suggests lack of specificity in recording underlying causes of death on death certificates. Source: Estimated new cases are based on incidence rates from 41 states as reported by the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries (NAACCR), representing about 86% of the US population. Estimated deaths are based on data from US Mortality Public Use Data Tapes, 1969 to 2004, National Center for Health Statistics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Volume 57 Number 1 January/February

5 TABLE 2 Age-standardized Incidence Rates for All Cancers Combined, , and Estimated New Cases* for Selected Cancers by State, US, 2007 Colon Melanoma Non- Incidence All Female Uterine & Uterine Lung & of the Hodgkin Urinary State Rate Cases Breast Cervix Rectum Corpus Leukemia Bronchus Skin Lymphoma Prostate Bladder AL ,590 2, , , , AK , AZ 26,270 3, , ,740 1,300 1,080 3,400 1,360 AR 14,130 1, , , , CA ,250 19,790 1,350 15,000 3,870 4,610 17,920 6,860 7,190 24,590 6,590 CO ,190 2, , ,100 1, , CT ,780 2, , ,720 1, ,890 1,090 DE , DC , FL ,560 11, ,420 2,490 3,360 17,490 4,380 4,530 15,710 5,460 GA ,440 4, , ,780 1,460 1,370 5,850 1,360 HI , ID , , IL ,010 7, ,890 1,730 2,030 9,550 2,050 2,670 8,060 2,880 IN ,040 3, , ,210 1,220 1,310 3,710 1,390 IA ,540 2, , , , KS 12,760 1, , , , KY ,850 2, , ,450 1, , LA ,540 2, , , , ME , , , MD ,390 3, , ,130 1,150 1,160 4,690 1,150 MA ,920 4, ,850 1,110 1,010 5,060 1,820 1,550 5,180 1,950 MI ,410 5, ,570 1,610 1,680 8,210 2,080 2,250 8,200 2,700 MN ,420 3, , ,160 1,130 1,170 4,800 1,250 MS 12,470 1, , , , MO ,930 3, , , ,260 3,910 1,350 MT , NE ,720 1, , , NV ,030 1, , , , NH , , , NJ ,370 6, ,160 1,550 1,520 6,310 2,210 2,200 8,070 2,450 NM 8,030 1, , NY ,960 12, ,710 3,240 3,080 13,390 3,070 4,540 15,770 4,980 NC 38,210 4, ,290 1,020 1,070 6,290 1,630 1,610 6,040 1,690 ND 3, OH 59,220 6, ,410 1,800 1,710 9,790 2,390 2,560 8,260 2,940 OK ,170 2, , , , OR ,630 2, , , , PA ,130 8, ,220 2,400 2,240 10,500 3,120 3,330 12,230 4,030 RI , SC ,370 2, , , , SD 3, TN 28,440 3, , , ,180 3,000 1,230 TX ,020 12, ,510 2,040 3,130 13,520 3,860 4,140 13,280 3,300 UT , , VT 3, VA 35,090 4, , ,360 1,510 1,390 5,330 1,380 WA ,080 4, , ,970 1,630 1,500 5,000 1,490 WV ,490 1, , , , WI ,130 3, , ,040 3,930 1,070 1,300 4,770 1,350 WY 2, US ,444, ,480 11, ,760 39,080 44, ,380 59,940 63, ,890 67,160 *Rounded to the nearest 10; excludes basal and squamous cell skin cancers and in situ carcinomas except urinary bladder. Rates are per 100,000 and age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population; source: CINA+ Online, NAACCR, based on data collected by cancer registries participating in NCI s SEER Program and CDC s National Program of Cancer Registries. Estimate is fewer than 50 cases. Combined incidence rate is not available. Note: These model-based estimates are calculated using incidence rates from 41 states as reported by NAACCR; they are offered as a rough guide and should be interpreted with caution. State estimates may not add to US total due to rounding and exclusion of state estimates fewer than 50 cases. 46 CA A Cancer Journal for Clinicians

6 CA Cancer J Clin 2007;57:43 66 Estimated New Cases* Estimated Deaths Prostate 218,890 29% Lung & bronchus 114,760 15% Colon & rectum 79,130 10% Urinary bladder 50,040 7% Non-Hodgkin lymphoma 34,200 4% Melanoma of the skin 33,910 4% Kidney & renal pelvis 31,590 4% Leukemia 24,800 3% Oral cavity & pharynx 24,180 3% Pancreas 18,830 2% All Sites 766, % Lung & bronchus 89,510 31% Prostate 27,050 9% Colon & rectum 26,000 9% Pancreas 16,840 6% Leukemia 12,320 4% Liver & intrahepatic bile duct 11,280 4% Esophagus 10,900 4% Urinary bladder 9,630 3% Non-Hodgkin lymphoma 9,600 3% Kidney & renal pelvis 8,080 3% All Sites 289, % FIGURE 1 Ten Leading Cancer Types for the Estimated New Cancer Cases and Deaths, by Sex, US, 2007 *Excludes basal and squamous cell skin cancers and in situ carcinomas except urinary bladder. Estimates are rounded to the nearest 10. Figure 1 indicates the most common cancers expected to occur in men and women in Among men, cancers of the prostate, lung and bronchus, and colon and rectum account for about 54% of all newly diagnosed cancers. Prostate cancer alone accounts for about 29% (218,890) of incident cases in men. Based on cases diagnosed between 1996 and 2002, an estimated 91% of these new cases of prostate cancer are expected to be diagnosed at local or regional stages, for which 5-year relative survival approaches 100%. Males Males Females Breast 178,480 26% Lung & bronchus 98,620 15% Colon & rectum 74,630 11% Uterine corpus 39,080 6% Non-Hodgkin lymphoma 28,990 4% Melanoma of the skin 26,030 4% Thyroid 25,480 4% Ovary 22,430 3% Kidney & renal pelvis 19,600 3% Leukemia 19,440 3% All Sites 678, % Females Lung & bronchus 70,880 26% Breast 40,460 15% Colon & rectum 26,180 10% Pancreas 16,530 6% Ovary 15,280 6% Leukemia 9,470 4% Non-Hodgkin lymphoma 9,060 3% Uterine corpus 7,400 3% Brain & other nervous system 5,590 2% Liver & intrahepatic bile duct 5,500 2% All Sites 270, % The three most commonly diagnosed types of cancer among women in 2007 will be cancers of the breast, lung and bronchus, and colon and rectum, accounting for about 52% of estimated cancer cases in women. Breast cancer alone is expected to account for 26% (178,480) of all new cancer cases among women. Expected Number of New Cancer Deaths Table 1 also shows the expected number of deaths from cancer projected for 2007 for men, Volume 57 Number 1 January/February

7 women, and both sexes combined. It is estimated that about 559,650 Americans will die from cancer, corresponding to over 1,500 deaths per day. Cancers of the lung and bronchus, prostate, and colon and rectum in men, and cancers of the lung and bronchus, breast, and colon and rectum in women continue to be the most common fatal cancers. These four cancers account for half of the total cancer deaths among men and women (Figure 1). Lung cancer surpassed breast cancer as the leading cause of cancer death in women in Lung cancer is expected to account for 26% of all female cancer deaths in Table 3 provides the estimated number of cancer deaths in 2007 by state for selected cancer sites. Regional Variations in Cancer Rates Table 4 depicts cancer incidence for select cancers by state. Rates vary widely across states. For example, among the cancers listed in Table 4, the largest variations in the incidence rates, in proportionate terms, occurred in lung cancer, in which rates (cases per 100,000 population) ranged from 41.8 in men and 21.5 in women in Utah to in men and 73.5 in women in Kentucky. In contrast, the variation in female breast cancer incidence rates was small, ranging from 115 cases per 100,000 population in New Mexico to cases in Washington. Factors that contribute to the state variations in the incidence rates include differences in the prevalence of risk factors, access to and utilization of early detection services, and completeness of reporting. For example, the state variation in lung cancer incidence rates primarily reflects differences in smoking prevalence; Utah ranks lowest in adult smoking prevalence and Kentucky highest. Trends in Cancer Incidence and Mortality Figures 2 to 5 depict long-term trends in cancer incidence and death rates for all cancers combined and for selected cancer sites by sex. Table 5 shows incidence and mortality patterns for all cancer sites combined and for the four most common cancer sites based on joinpoint analysis. Trends in incidence were adjusted for delayed reporting. Delay-adjusted cancer incidence rates for all sites combined stabilized in men from 1995 to 2003 and increased in women by 0.3% per year from 1987 to Lung cancer incidence rates are declining in men and appear to be plateauing in women after increasing for many decades. The lag in the temporal trend of lung cancer incidence rates in women compared with men reflects historical differences in cigarette smoking between men and women; cigarette smoking in women peaked about 20 years later than in men. Colorectal cancer incidence rates have decreased from 1998 through 2003 in both males and in females. Female breast cancer incidence rates leveled off from 2001 to 2003 after increasing since 1980, which may reflect the saturation of mammography utilization and reduction in the use of hormone replacement therapy. 15 Prostate cancer incidence rates continued to increase, although at a slower rate than those reported for the early 1990s and before. The continuing increase for prostate cancer may be attributable to increased screening through prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing. 15 Death rates for all cancer sites combined decreased by 1.6% per year from 1993 to 2003 in males and by 0.8% per year in females from 1992 to Mortality rates have continued to decrease across all four major cancer sites in men and in women, except for female lung cancer in which rates continued to increase by 0.3% per year from 1995 to 2003 (Table 5). Table 6 shows the contribution of individual cancer sites to the total decrease in overall cancer death rates. Death rates from all cancers combined peaked in 1990 for men and in 1991 for women. Between 1990/1991 and 2003, death rates from cancer decreased by 16.3% among men and by 8.5% among women. Among men, reduction in death rates from lung, prostate, and colorectal cancers accounts for about 80% of the decrease in cancer death rates, while reduction in death rates from breast and colorectal cancers accounts for over 60% of the decrease among women. Lung cancer in men and breast cancer in women alone account for nearly 40% of the sex-specific decreases in cancer death rates. The decrease in lung cancer death rates among men is due to reduction in tobacco use over the past 40 years, while the decrease in death rates from female breast, colorectal, and prostate cancer largely reflects improvements in early detection and treatment. Between 48 CA A Cancer Journal for Clinicians

8 CA Cancer J Clin 2007;57:43 66 TABLE 3 Age-standardized Death Rates for All Cancers Combined, , and Estimated Deaths* From All Cancers Combined and Selected Sites by State, US, 2007 Brain & Other Colon Non- Death All Nervous Female & Lung & Hodgkin State Rate Sites System Breast Rectum Leukemia Liver Bronchus Lymphoma Ovary Pancreas Prostate AL , , AK AZ , , AR , , CA ,890 1,460 4,130 5,230 2,150 2,270 13,220 1,830 1,680 3,480 3,040 CO , , CT , , DE , DC , FL , ,700 3,530 1,630 1,190 12,360 1,300 1,040 2,350 2,180 GA , ,120 1, , HI , ID , IL , ,740 2, , , IN , , , IA , , KS , , KY , , LA , , ME , MD , , MA , , , MI , ,320 1, , , MN , , MS , , MO , , , MT , NE , NV , , NH , NJ , ,350 1, , , NM , NY , ,670 3,350 1,360 1,090 9,500 1,030 1,020 2,330 1,630 NC , ,240 1, , ND , OH , ,820 2, , ,370 1,350 OK , , OR , , PA , ,470 2,730 1, ,780 1, ,780 1,310 RI , SC , , SD , TN , , , TX , ,480 3,220 1,410 1,490 9,920 1, ,010 1,620 UT , VT , VA , ,100 1, , WA , , WV , , WI , , WY US ,650 12,740 40,460 52,180 21,790 16, ,390 18,660 15,280 33,370 27,050 *Rounded to the nearest 10. Rates are per 100,000 population and age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population. Estimate is fewer than 50 deaths. Note: State estimates may not add to US total due to rounding and exclusion of state estimates fewer than 50 deaths. Source: US Mortality Public Use Data Tapes, 1969 to 2004, National Center for Health Statistics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Volume 57 Number 1 January/February

9 TABLE 4 Cancer Incidence Rates* by Site and State, US, 1999 to 2003 Non- Colon & Lung & Hodgkin All Sites Breast Rectum Bronchus Lymphoma Prostate Urinary Bladder State Male Female Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Male Female Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Dist. of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota ( ) Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming United States *Per 100,000, age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population. Not all states submitted data for all years. This state s registry has submitted five years of data and passed rigorous criteria for each single year s data including: completeness of reporting, non-duplication of records, percent unknown in critical data fields, percent of cases registered with information from death certificates only, and internal consistency among data items. This state s registry did not submit incidence data to the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries (NAACCR) for This state s data is excluded from interpretation in the text because completeness of case ascertainment for this state s registry is 77%-84% for the years Sources: CINA+ Online and Cancer in North America: , Volume One: Incidence, North American Association of Central Cancer Registries. 50 CA A Cancer Journal for Clinicians

10 CA Cancer J Clin 2007;57:43 66 FIGURE 2 Annual Age-adjusted Cancer Incidence and Death Rates* for All Sites, by Sex, US, 1975 to FIGURE *Rates are age-adjusted Annual Age to adjusted the 2000 Cancer US standard Incidence population. and Death Incidence Rates* rates for All are Sites adjusted by Sex for US delays 1975 in reporting. to 2003 Source: Incidence Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program, ( Delay-Adjusted Incidence database: SEER Incidence Delay-Adjusted Rates, 9 Registries, National Cancer Institute, DCCPS, Surveillance Research Program, Statistical Research and Applications Branch, released April 2006, based on the November 2005 SEER data submission. Mortality US Mortality Public Use Data Tapes, 1960 to 2003, National Center for Health Statistics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, /1991 and 2003, death rates increased substantially for lung cancer in women and for liver and intrahepatic bile duct cancer in men. Changes in the Recorded Number of Deaths From Cancer From 2003 to 2004 A total of 553,888 cancer deaths was recorded in the United States in 2004, the most recent year for which actual data are available. There were 3,014 fewer cancer deaths reported in 2004 than in 2003, resulting in a decrease in the total number of cancer deaths for the second consecutive year. Cancer accounted for about 23% of all deaths, ranking second only to heart disease (Table 7). When cause of death is ranked within each age group, categorized Volume 57 Number 1 January/February

11 in 20-year age intervals, cancer is one of the five leading causes of death in each age group among both males and females (Table 8). Cancer is the leading cause of death among women aged 40 to 79 years and among men aged 60 to 79 years. When age-adjusted death rates are considered (Figure 6), cancer is the leading cause of death among men and women under age 85 years. A total of 473,535 people under age 85 years died from cancer in the United States in 2004, compared with 414,526 deaths from heart disease. Table 9 presents the number of deaths from all cancers combined and the five most common cancer sites for males and females at various ages. Among males under age 40 years, leukemia is the most common fatal cancer, while cancer of the lung and bronchus predominates in men aged 40 years and older. The second most common cause of cancer death is colorectal cancer among men aged 40 to 79 years and prostate cancer among men aged 80 years and older. Among females, leukemia is the leading cause of cancer death before age 20 years, breast cancer ranks first at age 20 to 59 years, and lung cancer ranks first at age 60 years and older. From 2003 to 2004, the number of recorded cancer deaths decreased by 1,160 in men and by 1,854 in women (Table 10). The largest change in number of deaths from the major cancers was for colorectal cancer in both men and women (decreased by 1,110 and 1,094, respectively). FIGURE 3 Annual Age-adjusted Cancer Incidence Rates* Among Males and Females for Selected Cancers, US, 1975 to *Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population and adjusted for delays in reporting. Source: Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program ( Delay-Adjusted Incidence database: SEER Incidence Delay-Adjusted Rates, 9Registries, National Cancer Institute, DCCPS, Surveillance Research Program, Statistical Research and Applications Branch, released April 2006, based on the November 2005 SEER data submission. 52 CA A Cancer Journal for Clinicians

12 CA Cancer J Clin 2007;57:43 66 FIGURE 4 Annual Age-adjusted Cancer Death Rates* Among Males for Selected Cancers, US, 1930 to *Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population. Note: Due to changes in ICD coding, numerator information has changed over time. Rates for cancers of the lung and bronchus, colon and rectum, and liver are affected by these changes. Source: US Mortality Public Use Data Tapes, 1960 to 2003, US Mortality Volumes, 1930 to 1959, National Center for Health Statistics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, CANCER OCCURRENCE BY RACE/ETHNICITY Cancer incidence and death rates vary considerably among racial and ethnic groups (Table 11). For all cancer sites combined, African American men have a 15% higher incidence rate and 38% higher death rate than White men. African American women have a 9% lower incidence rate, but an 18% higher death rate than White women for all cancer sites combined. For the specific cancer sites listed in Table 11, incidence and death rates are consistently higher in African Americans than in Whites, except for breast cancer (incidence) and lung and kidney cancers (incidence and mortality) among women. Death rates from prostate, stomach, and cervical cancers among African Americans are more than twice those in Whites. Factors known to contribute to racial disparities in mortality vary by cancer site. These factors include differences in exposure to underlying risk factors (eg, Helicobacter pylori for stomach cancer), access to high-quality regular screening (breast, cervical, and colorectal cancers), and timely diagnosis and treatment (for many cancers). The higher breast cancer incidence rates among Whites are thought to reflect a combination of factors that affect diagnosis (such as more frequent mammography in White women until the most recent time period) and those that affect disease risk (such as later age at first birth and greater use of hormone replacement therapy among White than African American women). 16 Among other racial and ethnic groups, cancer incidence and death rates are lower than Volume 57 Number 1 January/February

13 those in Whites and African Americans for all cancer sites combined and for the four most common cancer sites. However, the incidence and death rates are generally higher in minority populations than in Whites for cancers of the uterine cervix, stomach, and liver. Stomach and liver cancer incidence and death rates are more than twice as high in Asian American/Pacific Islanders as in Whites, reflecting increased exposure to infectious agents such as Helicobacter pylori and hepatitis B. 17 Kidney cancer incidence and death rates are the highest among American Indians/ Alaskan Natives, although factors that contribute to this are unknown. Trends in cancer incidence can only be adjusted for delayed reporting in Whites and African Americans, and not in other racial and ethnic subgroups, because long-term incidence data required for delay adjustment are available only for Whites and African Americans. From 1995 to 2003, sex-specific incidence rates for all cancer sites combined, not adjusted for delayed reporting, have stabilized, except for African American and Hispanic men, in whom rates decreased by 1.3% and 1.1%, respectively. In contrast, death rates from cancer significantly decreased in each racial and ethnic group, with larger decreases in men than in women. 3 FIGURE 5 Annual Age-adjusted Cancer Death Rates* Among Females for Selected Cancers, US, 1930 to *Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population. Uterus includes uterine cervix and uterine corpus. Note: Due to changes in ICD coding, numerator information has changed over time. Rates for cancers of the uterus, ovary, lung and bronchus, and colon and rectum are affected by these changes. Source: US Mortality Public Use Data Tapes, 1960 to 2003, US Mortality Volumes 1930 to 1959, National Center for Health Statistics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, CA A Cancer Journal for Clinicians

14 CA Cancer J Clin 2007;57:43 66 TABLE 5 Trends in Cancer Incidence and Death Rates for Selected Cancers by Sex, US, 1975 to 2003 Line Segment 1 Line Segment 2 Line Segment 3 Line Segment 4 Year APC* Year APC* Year APC* Year APC* All sites Incidence Male and female Male Female Death Male and female Male Female Lung & bronchus Incidence Male and female Male Female Death Male and female Male Female Colon & rectum Incidence Male and female Male Female Death Male and female Male Female Breast (female) Incidence Death Prostate Incidence Death *Annual percent change based on incidence (delay-adjusted) and mortality rates age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population. The APC is significantly different from zero. Note: Trends were analyzed by Joinpoint Regression Program, version 3.1, with a maximum of three joinpoints (ie, four line segments). Source: Ries LAG, Harkins D, Krapcho M, et al., eds. SEER Cancer Statistics Review, , National Cancer Institute, based on November 2005 SEER data submission, posted to the SEER Web site, Lifetime Probability of Developing Cancer The lifetime probability of developing cancer is higher for men (45%) than for women (38%) (Table 12). However, because of the relatively early age of breast cancer onset, women have a slightly higher probability of developing cancer before age 60 years. It is noteworthy that these estimates are based on the average experience of the general population and may over- or underestimate individual risk because of differences in exposure and/or genetic susceptibility. Cancer Survival by Race Compared with Whites, African American men and women have poorer survival once a cancer diagnosis is made. As shown in Figure 7, African Americans are less likely than Whites to be diagnosed with cancer at a localized stage, when the disease may be more easily and successfully treated, and are more likely to be diagnosed with cancer at a regional or distant stage of disease. Five-year relative survival is lower in African Americans than Whites within each stratum of stage of diagnosis for nearly every cancer site (Figure 8). These disparities may result from inequalities in access to and receipt of quality health care and/or within-stage differences in tumor characteristics. The contribution of these factors, individually or collectively, to the differential survival for specific cancers is unclear. 18 However, some studies suggest that African Volume 57 Number 1 January/February

15 TABLE 6 The Contribution of Indvidual Cancer Sites to the Decrease in Cancer Death Rates, Death rate (per 100,000) Change 1990* 2003 Absolute % % Contribution Male All Malignant Cancers Decreasing Lung & Bronchus Prostate Colon & Rectum Pancreas Leukemia Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma Urinary Bladder Kidney & Renal Pelvis Stomach Brain & Other Nervous System Myeloma Oral Cavity & Pharynx Larynx Hodgkin Lymphoma Bones & Joints Small Intestine Others Total Increasing Esophagus Liver & Intrahepatic Bile Duct Melanoma of the Skin Thyroid Total Death rate (per 100,000) Change 1991* 2003 Absolute % % Contribution Females All Malignant Cancers Decreasing Breast Colon & Rectum Pancreas Ovary Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma Leukemia Uterine Corpus Brain & Other Nervous System Myeloma Stomach Kidney & Renal Pelvis Uterine Cervix Urinary Bladder Esophagus Melanoma of the Skin Oral Cavity & Pharynx Soft Tissue including Heart Gallbladder Others Total Increasing Lung & Bronchus Liver & Intrahepatic Bile Duct Total *Death rates from cancer peaked in 1990 for men and in 1991 for women. This calculation is based on each cancer site s contribution to the increasing or decreasing portion of the total cancer death rate, depending on the individual site s trend; it does not represent the contribution to the net decrease in cancer death rates. 56 CA A Cancer Journal for Clinicians

16 CA Cancer J Clin 2007;57:43 66 TABLE 7 Fifteen Leading Causes of Death, US, 2004 Number of Percent (%) of Death Rank Cause of Death Deaths Total Deaths Rate* All Causes 2,397, Heart diseases 652, Cancer 553, Cerebrovascular diseases 150, Chronic lower respiratory diseases 121, Accidents (unintentional injuries) 112, Diabetes mellitus 73, Alzheimer disease 65, Influenza & pneumonia 59, Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, & nephrosis 42, Septicemia 33, Intentional self-harm (suicide) 32, Chronic liver disease & cirrhosis 27, Hypertension & hypertensive renal disease 23, Parkinson disease 17, Assault (homocide) 17, All other & ill-defined causes 414, *Rates are per 100,000 population and age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population. Note: Percentages may not total 100 due to rounding. Symptoms, signs, and abnormalities and pneumonitis due to solids and liquids were excluded from the cause of death ranking order. Source: US Mortality Public Use Data Tape, 2004, National Center for Health Statistics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, FIGURE 6 Death Rates* From Cancer and Heart Disease for Ages Younger Than 85 and 85 and Older. *Rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population. Source: US Mortality Public Use Data Tapes, 1960 to 2003, National Center for Health Statistics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Volume 57 Number 1 January/February

17 TABLE 8 Ten Leading Causes of Death by Age and Sex, US, 2004 All Ages Ages 1 to 19 Ages 20 to 39 Ages 40 to 59 Ages 60 to 79 Ages 80+ Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female All Causes All Causes All Causes All Causes All Causes All Causes All Causes All Causes All Causes All Causes All Causes All Causes 1,181,668 1,215,947 16,326 8,999 63,753 28, , , , , , ,246 1 Heart Heart Accidents Accidents Accidents Accidents Heart Cancer Cancer Cancer Heart Heart diseases diseases (unintentional (unintentional (unintentional (unintentional diseases 49, , ,500 diseases diseases 321, ,513 injuries) injuries) injuries) injuries) 53, , ,367 7,369 3,763 21,802 7,173 2 Cancer Cancer Assault Cancer Intentional Cancer Cancer Heart Heart Heart Cancer Cancer 286, ,058 (homicide) 930 self-harm 4,878 53,127 diseases diseases diseases 75,579 83,986 2,035 (suicide) 21, ,219 88,538 8,685 3 Accidents Cerebro- Intentional Assault Assault Heart Accidents Accidents Chronic Chronic Cerebro- Cerebro- (unintentional vascular self-harm (homicide) (homicide) diseases (unintentional (unintentional lower lower vascular vascular injuries) disease (suicide) 603 7,700 2,526 injuries) injuries) respiratory respiratory diseases diseases 72,050 91,274 1,532 22,159 9,343 diseases diseases 28,551 61,582 30,114 29,223 4 Cerebro- Chronic lower Cancer Congenital Heart Intentional Intentional Cerebro- Cerebro- Cerebro- Chronic lower Alzheimer vascular respiratory 1,219 anomalies diseases self-harm self-harm vascular vascular vascular respiratory disease disease diseases 541 5,394 (suicide) (suicide) diseases diseases diseases diseases 39,951 58,800 63,341 1,953 9,640 5,536 22,668 23,335 23,749 5 Chronic Alzheimer Congenital Intentional Cancer Assault Chronic liver Diabetes Diabetes Diabetes Influenza & Chronic lower disease anomalies self-harm 4,251 (homicide) disease & mellitus mellitus mellitus pneumonia lower respiratory 46, (suicide) 1,478 cirrhosis 4,778 17,160 15,969 15,560 respiratory diseases 453 9,357 diseases 58,646 29,660 6 Diabetes Accidents Heart Heart HIV HIV Diabetes Chronic Accidents Nephritis, Alzheimer Influenza & mellitus (unintentional diseases diseases disease disease mellitus lower (unintentional nephrotic disease pneumonia 35,267 injuries) ,421 1,202 6,948 respiratory injuries) syndrome & 14,353 23,801 39,962 diseases 11,024 nephrosis 4,066 7,652 7 Influenza & Diabetes Chronic Influenza & Diabetes Cerebro- Cerebro- Chronic liver Influenza & Accidents Diabetes Diabetes pneumonia mellitus lower pneumonia mellitus vascular vascular disease & pneumonia (unintentional mellitus mellitus 26,861 37,871 respiratory disease diseases cirrhosis 8,302 injuries) 10,269 16,496 diseases 680 6,655 3,736 7, Intentional Influenza & Influenza & Septicemia Chronic liver Diabetes HIV Intentional Nephritis, Alzheimer Nephritis, Nephritis, self-harm pneumonia pneumonia 101 disease & mellitus disease self-harm nephrotic disease nephrotic nephrotic (suicide) 32, cirrhosis 584 6,222 (suicide) syndrome & 6,887 syndrome & syndrome & 25, ,305 nephrosis nephrosis nephrosis 8,017 9,452 12,205 9 Nephritis, Nephritis, Cerebro- Chronic Cerebro- Pregnancy, Chronic Septicemia Septicemia Influenza & Accidents Accidents nephrotic nephrotic vascular lower vascular childbirth lower 2,103 6,349 pneumonia (unintentional (unintentional syndrome & syndrome & disease respiratory disease & puerperium respiratory 6,881 injuries) injuries) nephrosis nephrosis 104 diseases diseases 9,018 11,986 20,370 22, , Alzheimer Septicemia In situ & In situ & Congenital Chronic liver Assault HIV Chronic liver Septicemia Parkinsons Hypertension disease 18,362 benign benign anomalies disease & (homicide) disease disease & 6,507 disease & hypertensive 18,974 neoplasms neoplasms 500 cirrhosis 2,918 2,069 cirrhosis 6,435 renal disease ,324 9,568 Note: Symptoms, signs, and abnormalities; events of undetermined intent; and other respiratory diseases were excluded from the cause of death ranking order. Source: US Mortality Public Use Data Tapes, 2004, National Center for Health Statistics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, CA A Cancer Journal for Clinicians