Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases
|
|
- Gerald Williams
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases Breakthrough Cincinnati s Super Saturday November 22, 2014 David J. Gerberry Assistant Professor of Mathematics Xavier University david.gerberry@xavier.edu!
2 Who is this idiot? from Mineral Ridge, Ohio Youngstown State! Purdue! UCLA! Xavier as a 6 th / 7 th grader Wanted to be a Major League Baseball player as it turned out PhD in Mathematics, Professor at Xavier
3 Why am I here? Mathematical Models of Infectious Disease Worked in Medical School at UCLA modeled HIV and Tuberculosis My job today: show how math can be used to study diseases
4 Infectious Diseases Can be spread from one person to another Examples? Diseases that aren t infectious? What causes infectious diseases? How are infectious diseases spread? Which infectious diseases are most deadly?
5 Most deadly infectious diseases? Disease Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease Case Fatality Rate (left untreated) 100% Rabies ~100% Smallpox 95% HIV/AIDS 80-90% Ebola 65-85% Disease Lower Respiratory Infections HIV/AIDS Diarrheal Diseases Tuberculosis (TB) Malaria Measles Pertussis Tetanus Meningitis Syphilis Deaths 3.9 million 2.8 million 1.8 million 1.6 million 1.3 million 600 thousand 290 thousand 210 thousand 170 thousand 160 thousand Ebola in 2014: 5,741 deaths as of November 16
6 Some fancy words Epidemiology: The study of disease in a popula1on Types of disease outbreaks: Sporadic: occasional occurrence Endemic: cases in a region are regular and o9en Epidemic: unusually high number of cases in a region Pandemic: global epidemic Today: Mathema1cal Epidemiology (sounds impressive, tell your parents this)
7 Ebola Everyone starts here: not yet infected Infected but no symptoms, feel healthy, can infect others Have symptoms, are sick and can infect others Healthy again, immune to infection Susceptible Incubation Period Infected Recovered Transmission Symptom onset Recovery
8 Ebola Relatively difficult to transmit: only thru direct contact with bodily fluids Susceptible Transmission Incubation period: can be up to 21 days but is usually 7-14 days Symptoms: fever, flu-like, nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, bleeding 65 85% die immune to infection Incubation Period Infected Death 25% Recovery 75% Recovered Symptom onset
9 Ebola Ebola is no joke but I will make jokes (bad ones) Real joke is the panic that went around about ebola in the media and in the American public. There never was and will not be an ebola outbreak in the US. The real joke (joke, as in, makes you ashamed to be a human) is that thousands of people have died in West Africa since last spring and the average American didn t know/care until someone in the US got it.
10 What is a mathematical model?
11 What is a mathematical model?
12 What is a mathematical model? What is a model?
13 What is a mathematical model? What is a model?
14 What is a mathematical model? What is a model in general?
15 What is a mathematical model? What is a model?
16 What is a mathematical model? What is a model? Answer: a SIMPLIFIED version of something using mathematical ideas (equations, formulas, functions, rules, etc.)
17 Mathematical models of infectious disease Simplified description of how a disease spreads through a populations using mathematical ideas Ex; equations for numbers of susceptible, infected, recovered Ex; Rules for how many people each person infects Susceptible Infected Recovered Transmission Recovery
18 Activity: The Standing Disease Everyone starts sitting down. One person stands and is the first case. They pick two still sitting to infect. Those two stand up and each pick two others from those still sitting. The next generation stands up and each pick two more and so on. How many steps did the disease take to infect whole class? What would happen if 3 instead of 2? What if the class was bigger?
19 1
20 1 2
21 1 2 4
22
23
24
25 Discussion How many steps do you think it would take to infect everyone in the world?
26 1 Step 0 2 Step 1 4 Step 2 8 Step people are infected on the 10th step
27 1 2, , , , , , , , , ,048, ,097,152 How long until everyone in Cincinnati is infected? 300,000 people 19 days
28 1 2, , , , , , , , , ,048, ,097, billion people in the world How many steps until we infect the entire world?
29 1 2, , , , , , , , , ,048, ,097, billion people in the world
30 Plot the number of new infections as a graph What isn t realistic about our model?
31 Plot the number of new infections as a graph Early part of epidemic Deaths This model would really only work well at the very beginning of an epidemic Weeks
32 So we can understand the start of an outbreak, but what happens next? Why does the number of cases peak and then decrease? Discussion Make a mathematical model to explore what is happening
33 26-Card Epidemic 1. Put the 26 black cards down in a pile face up. 2. Put the 26 red cards in a pile face down this is your population. 3. Pick one card from this population and put it facing up on the table this is the first infection (step 0). 4. It will be red, so replace it with a black card this represents that person, now recovered and back in the general population. 5. Shuffle the population cards, and put two cards face up on the table. These are the new infections (step 1). 6. Put any black cards back into the population pack these people are now immune, so won t get the infection again. Replenish the population pack with black cards to replace the red ones you ve put down. 7. Repeat items 5 and 6 (picking 2 cards for each infected person) until you pick only black cards. This is the end of the epidemic, there are no new infections. 8. Plot a graph to show how many new infections there are at each step. Infections Step Time
34 26-Card Epidemic: Questions Does the infection start to drop off? Why? Does your epidemic play out the same way every time? Why or why not? What is the probability that no one new is infected at step 2? How might things change if: more than one person is infected at the start each infected person infects 3 or 4 people instead of 2 Is this a realistic model? How could we improve it?
35 Possible Improvement By shuffling the deck and picking random cards, we re assuming that everyone is equally likely to get infected by someone else. Not completely realistic but not necessarily bad either Let s make a model that includes the fact that some people are at higher risk than others.
36 The Network-Standing Disease Like the Standing Disease but: - before starting, everyone writes down the names of the two other people in the room that they know the best. The first case picks the two they ve written down to infect. The next generation stands up and each pick their two and so on. How is this different from the standing disease? How many steps to infect everyone?
37 Now let s incorporate some a lot more randomness (fancy word STOCHASTICITY) (another STOCHASTIC MODEL) - get out dice - get out counters
38 Counter Ebola 1. Does your epidemic take off or die out? 2. Roll a die the result tells you how many people this person infects. 3. Put the appropriate number of counters in the column of step 2 for the disease. 4. For each infected person at step 2, roll the die to see how many people they infect, putting that number of counters in the column for step Repeat 4 until no one is infected, recording how many infected people you have at each step.
39 Let me do a few examples
40 Counter Ebola: Questions Does your infection play out the same way every time? Does the epidemic take off or die out? How often did it take off or die out? How many total infected people did you have? Did we lose some element of realism that we had in our 26-Card epidemic?
41 Counter Ebola: BIG QUESTION Did we see differences among the different groups? ANY IDEAS ON HOW WE COULD EXPLAIN THE DIFFERENCES WE SAW? (i.e. What caused the differences?)
42 R 0 Reproductive Ratio R 0 R 0 R 0 Definition: Average number of people an infected person infects at the start of an epidemic.
43 R 0 Reproductive Ratio R 0 R 0 R 0 Definition: Average number of people an infected person infects at the start of an epidemic. What is R 0 for the Standing Disease?
44 R 0 Reproductive Ratio R 0 R 0 R 0 Definition: Average number of people an infected person infects at the start of an epidemic. R 0 = 2
45 R 0 Reproductive Ratio R 0 Definition: Average number of people an infected person infects at the start of an epidemic. R 0 = 2 Deaths R 0 = Weeks
46 R 0 Reproductive Ratio R 0 R 0 is a measure of how quickly an epidemic will take off
47 R 0 Reproductive Ratio R 0 R 0 is a measure of how quickly an epidemic will take off
48 R 0 Reproductive Ratio R 0 R 0 is a measure of how quickly an epidemic will take off
49 R 0 Reproductive Ratio R 0 R 0 is a measure of how quickly an epidemic will take off R 0 > 1 Cases increase each step
50 R 0 Reproductive Ratio R 0 R 0 is a measure of how quickly an epidemic will take off R 0 > 1 Cases increase each step
51 Let s verify this conclusion Running this model by hand is OK but kind of repetitive we re just following simple rules/commands over and over and over again if there was only some time of machine that we could do repetitive commands over and over computers love this kind of stuff!!! e-counterplague-1plus
52 Importance of R 0 In general, we can eliminate a disease or prevent it taking hold in the first place if we can reduce the basic reproductive number below 1. R 0 < 1 " disease dies out
53 Immunization / Vaccination What is the point of vaccines? Could we incorporate vaccination into our previous models? Standing disease, 26-card epidemic, network standing disease, counter ebola What would be the effect if we did? play with e-counterplague to see What is the effect of vaccination on R 0? Does everyone in the population have to be vaccinated to eliminate a disease?
54 Vaccine Controversy What do we know about it? Where did it start? Not vaccinating is dangerous! Measles Pertussis not only for your kids but for others 600 thousand 290 thousand some people can t get vaccines because of certain medical conditions they rely on R 0 < 1 to prevent disease from taking hold
55 Back to Ebola How can we stop the ebola epidemic?
56 Back to Ebola How can we stop the ebola epidemic? What is R 0 for ebola? How could estimate this?
57 Back to Ebola How can we stop the ebola epidemic? What is R 0 for ebola? How could estimate this? Plot the number of new infections as a graph See which value of R 0 matches the observed data most closely R 0 determines how quickly the epidemic takes off Deaths Weeks
58 Back to Ebola R 0 for ebola is approximately reducing transmission by how much would eliminate ebola?
59 Back to Ebola R 0 for ebola is approximately reducing transmission by how much would eliminate ebola? ANS: 33-40%
60 Back to Ebola R 0 for ebola is approximately reducing transmission by how much would eliminate ebola? ANS: 33-40% If a vaccine were developed, would need to vaccinate 33-40% of the population.
61 If we have time we won t Some more models to play with Spatial model where people move around and infect others Excel Spreadsheet Model Does everyone who is susceptible catch the disease? Does everyone recover? How quickly does it last before dying out completely? What difference does it make if the disease can be fatal? Does the whole population ever die out? What difference does natural immunity and/or immunization make? What figures on the spreadsheet give the reproductive ratio, R 0? What value of R 0 do we require for an epidemic not to occur? For a given value of R 0 what level of vaccination do we need to prevent an epidemic occurring? What was R 0 for SARS? What is R 0 for measles? So what level of vaccination do we need for measles to prevent epidemics?
Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Disease
Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Disease Preview Day Mock Class April 19, 2015 David J. Gerberry Assistant Professor of Mathematics Xavier University www.cs.xavier.edu/~david.gerberry david.gerberry@xavier.edu
More informationPerson to person spread Ken Eames, Adam Kucharski, Jenny Gage
Modelling the spread of disease Microbes Viruses Bacteria Person to person spread Ken Eames, Adam Kucharski, Jenny Gage Microbes Viruses Bacteria Worms The swine flu pandemic Worms We also share microbes
More information1) Complete the Table: # with Flu
Name: Date: The Math Behind Epidemics A Study of Exponents in Action Many diseases can be transmitted from one person to another in various ways: airborne, touch, body fluids, blood only, etc. How can
More informationHow Math (and Vaccines) Keep You Safe From the Flu
How Math (and Vaccines) Keep You Safe From the Flu Simple math shows how widespread vaccination can disrupt the exponential spread of disease and prevent epidemics. By Patrick Honner BIG MOUTH for Quanta
More informationDisease dynamics: understanding the spread of diseases
Disease dynamics: understanding the spread of diseases Image courtesy of Lightspring / shutterstock.com Get to grips with the spread of infectious diseases with these classroom activities highlighting
More informationWHO: Forum Issue #02 Student Officer Position:
WHO: Topic B Forum : World Health Organization Issue #02 : Topic B: Preparing for a Global Health Crisis Student Officer : Samantha Portillo Position: Chair of the United Nations World Health Organization
More informationMODELING DISEASE FINAL REPORT 5/21/2010 SARAH DEL CIELLO, JAKE CLEMENTI, AND NAILAH HART
MODELING DISEASE FINAL REPORT 5/21/2010 SARAH DEL CIELLO, JAKE CLEMENTI, AND NAILAH HART ABSTRACT This paper models the progression of a disease through a set population using differential equations. Two
More informationCase study: Epidemic modelling in real life
Case study: Epidemic modelling in real life Epidemic modelling, simulation and statistical analysis Stockholm 2015. Sharon Kühlmann-Berenzon 2015-11-09 Outline for the day 1.Epidemic modelling: what is
More informationThe mathematics of diseases
1997 2004, Millennium Mathematics Project, University of Cambridge. Permission is granted to print and copy this page on paper for non commercial use. For other uses, including electronic redistribution,
More informationSHOULD VACCINES BE COMPULSORY?
The Big Debate SHOULD VACCINES BE COMPULSORY? Friday 02 March 2018 SHOULD VACCINES BE COMPULSORY? THE DILEMMA A change in French law means that all parents must now vaccinate children born on 1 January
More informationCE Unit. Viruses and Vaccines
CE Unit Viruses and Vaccines DO NOT WRITE What is a virus? Have you ever had a virus? What is a vaccine? How is a virus different from bacteria? What are the deadliest viruses? 10. Dengue fever 50 million
More informationBuy The Complete Version of This Book at Booklocker.com:
Amazing breakthrough remedy for swine flu from mother nature. How to Beat Swine Flu Naturally Buy The Complete Version of This Book at Booklocker.com: http://www.booklocker.com/p/books/4341.html?s=pdf
More informationOccupational Infections: Risks for the Anesthesiologist
Occupational Infections: Risks for the Anesthesiologist 2017 {Music} Dr. Alan Jay Schwartz: Hello. This is Alan Jay Schwartz, Editor-in-Chief of the American Society of Anesthesiologists 2017 Refresher
More informationCOMMUNICABLE DISEASE REPORT
COMMUNICABLE DISEASE REPORT Quarterly Report Volume 31, Number 2 September 2014 Emerging Viruses The early fall has been interesting around the world as respiratory viruses come to the forefront. The USA
More informationImmunisation CHILDREN SAY THAT WE CAN
Immunisation protects children against some of the worst causes of childhood death and disability and helps people live longer, healthier lives. Older children can learn the facts about immunisation Why?
More informationUNDERSTANDING THE CORRECT ANSWERS immunize.ca
UNDERSTANDING THE CORRECT ANSWERS Understanding the correct answers Question 1: Vaccination is... (information adapted from Your Child s Best Shot, 3rd edition, page 10) Vaccination (or immunization) is
More informationChapter 17 Human Health and Environmental Risks
Chapter 17 Human Health and Environmental Risks Three categories of human health risks physical biological chemical Global Death Causes What % of deaths are caused by disease (biological factors)? What
More informationModule 5: Introduction to Stochastic Epidemic Models with Inference
Module 5: Introduction to Stochastic Epidemic Models with Inference Instructors:, Dept. Mathematics, Stockholm University Ira Longini, Dept. Biostatistics, University of Florida Jonathan Sugimoto, Vaccine
More informationCase Studies in Ecology and Evolution. 10 The population biology of infectious disease
10 The population biology of infectious disease In 1918 and 1919 a pandemic strain of influenza swept around the globe. It is estimated that 500 million people became infected with this strain of the flu
More informationCertificate of Appreciation: Centers for Disease Control By James L. Holly, MD Your Life Your Health The Examiner October 16, 2014
Certificate of Appreciation: Centers for Disease Control By James L. Holly, MD Your Life Your Health The Examiner October 16, 2014 Due to the Ebola outbreak, the critical role of the Centers for Disease
More informationSARS Outbreak Study 2
This week in Epiville, you will continue with the remaining steps of the outbreak investigation and begin to learn how to frame a hypothesis, design a study, and draw conclusions from your investigation.
More informationStep 1: Learning Objectives
SARS Outbreak Study 2 This week in Epiville, you will continue with the remaining steps of the outbreak investigation and begin to learn how to frame a hypothesis, design a study, and draw conclusions
More informationSTAGES OF ADDICTION. Materials Needed: Stages of Addiction cards, Stages of Addiction handout.
Topic Area: Consequences of tobacco use Audience: Middle School/High School Method: Classroom Activity Time Frame: 20 minutes plus discussion STAGES OF ADDICTION Materials Needed: Stages of Addiction cards,
More informationModule 5: Introduction to Stochastic Epidemic Models with Inference
Module 5: Introduction to Stochastic Epidemic Models with Inference Instructors: Tom Britton, Dept. Mathematics, Stockholm University Ira Longini, Dept. Biostatistics, University of Florida Jonathan Sugimoto,
More informationInfluenza B viruses are not divided into subtypes, but can be further broken down into different strains.
Influenza General Information Influenza (the flu) is a highly transmissible respiratory illness caused by influenza viruses. It can cause mild to severe illness, and may lead to death. Older people, young
More informationAOHS Global Health. Unit 1, Lesson 3. Communicable Disease
AOHS Global Health Unit 1, Lesson 3 Communicable Disease Copyright 2012 2016 NAF. All rights reserved. A communicable disease is passed from one infected person to another The range of communicable diseases
More informationWhat You Need to Know About. TB Infection TUBERCULOSIS
What You Need to Know About TB Infection TUBERCULOSIS What s Inside: Take steps to make sure TB infection does not turn into TB disease. Read this booklet to learn how you can take control of your health.
More informationacute severe; very serious, strong, and important * Fritz was in the hospital for two weeks because he had an acute infection.
GLOSSARY developing country a country with low income, little industry, and many health problems compared to other, richer countries * She has spent years living in developing countries all over the world.
More informationSuggested Exercises and Projects 395
Suggested Exercises and Projects 395 Projects These suggested projects are taken in part from the recent book A Course in Mathematical Biology: Quantitative Modeling with Mathematical and Computational
More informationBefore Statement After
CHAPTER 17 Immunity and Disease LESSON 1 Diseases What do you think? Read the two statements below and decide whether you agree or disagree with them. Place an A in the Before column if you agree with
More informationLesson 3: Immunizations
K-W-L Graphic Organizer K (Know) What do you know about W (Want) What do you want to know about L (Learned) What did you learn about Glossary 1. antibodies: proteins created by the immune system to fight
More informationFACTS ABOUT PERTUSSIS (WHOOPING COUGH)
FACTS ABOUT PERTUSSIS (WHOOPING COUGH) General Questions About Pertussis What is pertussis? Pertussis, or whooping cough, is a contagious illness that is spread when an infected person sneezes or coughs
More informationReading: Chapter 13 (Epidemiology and Disease) in Microbiology Demystified
Biology 100 Winter 2013 Reading Guide 02 Reading: Chapter 13 (Epidemiology and Disease) in Microbiology Demystified Directions: Fill out the reading guide as you read. Again, the reading guide is designed
More informationMathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases. Raina MacIntyre
Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Raina MacIntyre A little bit of EBM is a dangerous thing Research question: Does smoking cause lung cancer? Answer: I couldn t find a meta-analysis or even
More informationINTERVENTION MODEL OF MALARIA
INTERVENTION MODEL OF MALARIA TAYLOR MCCLANAHAN Abstract. Every year up to about 300 million people are infected by malaria, an infectious disease caused by Plasmodium species parasites. Consequently,
More informationDeterministic Compartmental Models of Disease
Math 191T, Spring 2019 1 2 3 The SI Model The SIS Model The SIR Model 4 5 Basics Definition An infection is an invasion of one organism by a smaller organism (the infecting organism). Our focus is on microparasites:
More informationEBOLA & OTHER VIRUSES IN THE NEWS EBOLA VIRUS, CHIKUNGUNYA VIRUS, & ENTEROVIRUS D68
EBOLA & OTHER VIRUSES IN THE NEWS EBOLA VIRUS, CHIKUNGUNYA VIRUS, & ENTEROVIRUS D68 PRESENTERS Patricia Quinlisk, MD, MPH, Medical Director /State Epidemiologist Samir Koirala, MBBS, MSc Epidemic Intelligence
More informationEBOLA INFORMATION KIT 20 to 26 October 2014 MEMBERS NEWS HUNTING SERVICES FUND LEGISLATION CALENDAR GENERAL SHOP POPULAR ARTICLES
HOME ABOUT PHASA MEMBERS NEWS HUNTING SERVICES FUND LEGISLATION CALENDAR GENERAL SHOP DOWNLOAD: PROFESSIONAL HUNTER STATUS SECTION 16A (click to download) DOWNLOADS NEWSLETTERS F.A.Q TWITTER FACEBOOK Home
More informationWelcome to the UCLA Center for East- West Medicine Primary Care
Instructions: Welcome to the UCLA Center for East- West Medicine Primary Care We ask a lot of questions because we really want to get to know you! Please take your time with the paper work and return it
More informationGood Health & Well-Being. By Alexandra Russo
Good Health & Well-Being By Alexandra Russo SDG 3 Goal 3 aims to ensure healthy living and promote well-being for all at all ages There are 9 targets associated with SDG 3 The targets encompass a wide
More informationOverview Existing, Emerging, and Re-Emerging Communicable Diseases
Overview Existing, Emerging, and Re-Emerging Communicable Diseases Many communicable diseases have existed with us since the beginning of time. Communicable diseases, which are infections we catch from
More informationIMMUNISATION. Diseases that can be prevented by immunisation
IMMUNISATION THE IDEA Every year, millions of children die, and five million are disabled, from diseases which could have been prevented by immunisation against the germs which cause them. Children can
More informationNetwork Science: Principles and Applications
Network Science: Principles and Applications CS 695 - Fall 2016 Amarda Shehu,Fei Li [amarda, lifei](at)gmu.edu Department of Computer Science George Mason University Spreading Phenomena: Epidemic Modeling
More information4.0 Prevention of Infection Vaccines
4.0 Prevention of Infection Vaccines National Curriculum Link Key Stage 3 Sc1:1a - 1c. 2a 2p Sc2: 2n, 5c, 5d Unit of Study Unit 8: Microbes and Disease Unit 9B: Fit and Healthy Unit 20: 20 th Century Medicine
More informationViruses: Select Agents and Emerging Pathogens. Patricia Bolívar MS., CLS, PHM
Viruses: Select Agents and Emerging Pathogens Patricia Bolívar MS., CLS, PHM Objectives Review Select Agent Viruses. Key features to recognize Smallpox virus Update on emerging Viruses of possible pandemic
More informationContents. Mathematical Epidemiology 1 F. Brauer, P. van den Driessche and J. Wu, editors. Part I Introduction and General Framework
Mathematical Epidemiology 1 F. Brauer, P. van den Driessche and J. Wu, editors Part I Introduction and General Framework 1 A Light Introduction to Modelling Recurrent Epidemics.. 3 David J.D. Earn 1.1
More informationLocal Public Health Department. Communicable diseases Environmental health Chronic diseases Emergency preparedness Special programs
Susan I. Gerber, MD Local Public Health Department Communicable diseases Environmental health Chronic diseases Emergency preparedness Special programs Public Health Reporting Ground Zero Local government
More informationManagement of Pandemic Influenza Outbreaks. Bryan K Breland Director, Emergency Management University of Alabama at Birmingham
Management of Pandemic Influenza Outbreaks Bryan K Breland Director, Emergency Management University of Alabama at Birmingham Management of Pandemic Disease Outbreaks PANDEMIC DEFINED HISTORY OF PANDEMIC
More informationCE Unit 7. Viruses and Vaccines
CE Unit 7 Viruses and Vaccines DO NOT WRITE What is a virus? Have you ever had a virus? What is a vaccine? How is a virus different from bacteria? What are the deadliest viruses? 10. Dengue fever 50 million
More informationOregon State Legislature, Senate Committee on Health Care
2/25/2019 TO Oregon State Legislature, Senate Committee on Health Care Re: Support for HB 3063 Honorable Chair and Committee Members, I am Emily Puterbaugh, MD, a pediatrician from Portland OR, writing
More informationHIV Testing After 25 Years
Transcript Details This is a transcript of an educational program accessible on the ReachMD network. Details about the program and additional media formats for the program are accessible by visiting: https://reachmd.com/programs/focus-on-public-health-policy/hiv-testing-after-25-years/3736/
More informationDisease Detectives Golden Gate Science Olympiad Invitational Disease Detectives Test Time limit: 50 minutes
Disease Detectives 2018 Golden Gate Science Olympiad Invitational Disease Detectives Test Time limit: 50 minutes Names: Team Number: School: Score: / 183 Rank: Point values are written next to each question
More informationAdvisory on Plague WHAT IS PLAGUE? 19 October 2017
19 October 2017 Advisory on Plague WHAT IS PLAGUE? Plague is an infectious disease caused by the zoonotic bacteria, Yersinia pestis. This bacteria often infects small rodents (like rats, mice, and squirrels)
More informationInfectious disease modeling
Infectious disease modeling Matthew Macauley Department of Mathematical Sciences Clemson University http://www.math.clemson.edu/~macaule/ Math 4500, Spring 2017 M. Macauley (Clemson) Infectious disease
More informationUNICEF s Response to the Ebola Crisis. Presenta(on to the Execu(ve Board, Informal Session, 11 September 2014
UNICEF s Response to the Ebola Crisis Presenta(on to the Execu(ve Board, Informal Session, 11 September 2014 Overview Over 2,200+ deaths and over 4,200 confirmed / probable cases in Guinea, Sierra Leone,
More informationFriday Sunday Night [under the] Lights
Friday Sunday Night [under the] Lights 2018 Happy Friday... (As you are probably aware, Friday falls on a Sunday this week). It s really complex I don t want to bore you with the details. It would take
More informationCommunicable diseases. Gastrointestinal track infection. Sarkhell Araz MSc. Public health/epidemiology
Communicable diseases Gastrointestinal track infection Sarkhell Araz MSc. Public health/epidemiology Communicable diseases : Refer to diseases that can be transmitted and make people ill. They are caused
More informationLearning about HIV. A Lesson Plan from Rights, Respect, Responsibility: A K-12 Curriculum
Learning about HIV A Lesson Plan from Rights, Respect, Responsibility: A K-12 Curriculum Fostering respect and responsibility through age-appropriate sexuality education. NSES ALIGNMENT: By the end of
More informationParasites transmitted by vectors
Parasites transmitted by vectors Often very specific vector-parasite relationships Biomphalaria sp. - Schistosoma mansoni Anopheles sp. Plasmodium falciparum Simulium sp. Onchocerca volvulis Some more
More informationFive Features of Fighting the Flu
Five Features of Fighting the Flu Public Health Emergency Preparedness Pandemic Influenza Prevention Curriculum Grades 9-12 1 Day One Understand the Flu Virus 2 Five Features of Flu Fighting Code 1: Understand
More informationInfection, Detection, Prevention...
Infection, Detection, Prevention... A disease is any change that disrupts the normal function of one or more body systems. Non infectious diseases are typically caused by exposure to chemicals or are inherited.
More informationModelling emerging viral threats Raina MacIntyre. School of Public Health and Community Medicine
Modelling emerging viral threats Raina MacIntyre School of Public Health and Community Medicine Background Communicable diseases are unique because they have the capacity to be transmitted (from human
More informationMathematical Modeling of Infectious Disease
Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Disease DAIDD 2013 Travis C. Porco FI Proctor Foundation for Research in Ophthalmology UCSF Scope and role of modeling In the most general sense, we may consider modeling
More information20. HIV and AIDS. Objectives. How is HIV transmitted?
20. HIV and AIDS Objectives By the end of this session, group members will be able to: Explain what HIV and AIDS are. Describe how HIV is transmitted. Explain the difference between HIV and AIDS. List
More informationTeachers Students Total
Investigation #1: Analyzing data from two way tables Example #1: I pod ownership At a very large local high school in 2005, David wondered whether students at his local school were more likely to own an
More information1980 Eradication Ended Vaccinations
Smallpox Basics The Politics of Smallpox Modeling Rice University - November 2004 Edward P. Richards, JD, MPH Director, Program in Law, Science, and Public Health Harvey A. Peltier Professor of Law Louisiana
More informationBeattie Learning Disabilities Continued Part 2 - Transcript
Beattie Learning Disabilities Continued Part 2 - Transcript In class Tuesday we introduced learning disabilities and looked at a couple of different activities that are consistent and representative of
More informationThe Islamic University of Gaza- Civil and Environmental Engineering Department Public Health (EENV-5325)
The Islamic University of Gaza- Civil and Environmental Engineering Department Public Health (EENV-5325) Lecture 3: Components of the infectious disease process By Husam Al-Najar Components of the infectious
More informationA handbook for people who have injected drugs
A handbook for people who have injected drugs Introduction This handbook has been written for current and ex-drug injectors. It gives information and advice about the hep C virus, and the tests you can
More informationCoughs, Colds & Pneumonia
Coughs, colds and pneumonia affect millions of people worldwide and can kill. Older children can learn how to avoid coughs or colds, stop them spreading and prevent them developing. They can learn about
More informationEBOLA. Harford County Health Department October 22, 2014
EBOLA Harford County Health Department October 22, 2014 Zaire ebolvirus The 2014 Ebola outbreak concerns the most deadly of the five Ebola viruses, Zaire ebolvirus, which has killed 79 percent of the people
More informationChapter 17. Infectious Diseases
Chapter 17 Infectious Diseases Lesson 1 What is an infectious disease? Infectious disease Is any disease that is caused by an agent that can be passed from one living thing to another. Disease causing
More informationThe roadmap. Why do we need mathematical models in infectious diseases. Impact of vaccination: direct and indirect effects
Mathematical Models in Infectious Diseases Epidemiology and Semi-Algebraic Methods Why do we need mathematical models in infectious diseases Why do we need mathematical models in infectious diseases Why
More informationsaipem Ebola virus diseases EVD August 2014
Ebola virus diseases EVD August 2014 Why Ebola generates such fear? Ebola is one of the world's most deadly diseases. It can kill up to 90% of people who developed Ebola virus disease. There is not treatment
More informationLESSON 2.4 WORKBOOK. How can we prove infection causes disease?
DEFINITIONS OF TERMS Correlation a connection between two factors. Causation when a change in one factor results in a change in another. Vector an organism that transmits a pathogen from reservoir to host.
More informationA BSL-1 lab houses activities that require only standard microbial practices. These include:
BSL-1 A BSL-1 lab houses activities that require only standard microbial practices. These include: Work should be performed on an open lab bench or table Spills must be decontaminated immediately Infectious
More informationU.S. and British troops head to West Africa to help fight Ebola virus
U.S. and British troops head to West Africa to help fight Ebola virus By Los Angeles Times, adapted by Newsela staff - Sept. 09, 2014 1 2 3 4 To slow down the spread of the deadly virus Ebola, the United
More informationDrug Resistant Tuberculosis Self-reporting of Drugrelated. During Treatment
Drug Resistant Tuberculosis Self-reporting of Drugrelated Adverse Events During Treatment Introduction This information has been prepared for people with tuberculosis (TB) that is resistant to the commonly
More informationInfectious Diseases At A Glance in Durham Region
Infectious Diseases At A Glance in Durham Region Last Updated: November 2017 Highlights The rates of all reported infectious diseases combined are highest among youth and young adults aged 15 to 29 and
More informationAcute respiratory illness This is a disease that typically affects the airways in the nose and throat (the upper respiratory tract).
Influenza glossary Adapted from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, US https://www.cdc.gov/flu/glossary/index.htm and the World Health Organization http://www.wpro.who.int/emerging_diseases/glossary_rev_sept28.pdf?ua=1
More informationMMCS Turkey Flu Pandemic Project
MMCS Turkey Flu Pandemic Project This is a group project with 2 people per group. You can chose your own partner subject to the constraint that you must not work with the same person as in the banking
More informationCommunicable Disease. Introduction
Communicable Disease HIGHLIGHTS Seniors have the highest incidence rates of tuberculosis compared to other age groups. The incidence rates for TB have been higher among Peel seniors compared to Ontario
More informationIt is very common to get symptoms like cough, sore throat, runny nose and watery eyes. Usually when you
A Publication of the National Center for Farmworker Health Let s Learn about Respiratory Infections It is very common to get symptoms like cough, sore throat, runny nose and watery eyes. Usually when you
More informationExercises on SIR Epidemic Modelling
Exercises on SIR Epidemic Modelling 1 Epidemic model (from Wikipedia) An epidemic model is a simplified means of describing the transmission of communicable disease through individuals. The modeling of
More informationI don t want to be here anymore. I m really worried about Clare. She s been acting different and something s not right
I just can t take what s happening at home anymore Clare 23 mins Instagram When your friend is thinking about suicide I don t want to be here anymore... I m really worried about Clare. She s been acting
More informationmeasles? Abstract Introduction JUNE 2017 routine vaccination to 1 year old babies, and the second dose to
December JUNE 2017 2018 causes brains How canwhat we keep thelizards world free of to change size? measles? Authors: Authors: Susan Crow, Meghan Pawlowski, Manyowa Meki, Joaquin Prada, Jess Metcalf, Lara
More informationEPI 220: Principles of Infectious Disease Epidemiology UCLA School of Public Health https://ccle.ucla.edu/course/ Syllabus Winter 2016
EPI 220: Principles of Infectious Disease Epidemiology UCLA School of Public Health https://ccle.ucla.edu/course/ Syllabus Winter 2016 Course information Time: Tuesdays and Thursdays 4-5:50 PM Location:
More informationMeeting a Kid with Autism
What s up with Nick? When school started, we had a new kid named Nick. He seemed a little different. My friends and I wondered, What's up with Nick? Turns out, Nick has autism. What is Autism This year,
More informationTOM NEWBY SCHOOL EXAMINATION
TOM NEWBY SCHOOL EXAMINATION Subject LIFE SKILLS Examiner MRS L BRITS Date 25 November 2016 Total marks 50 Session 1 Duration 1½ HOURS Grade 5 Moderator MRS W PIENAAR Special instructions/ Equipment -
More informationDiagnosis: Tinder Herpes Ben Sarle
Diagnosis: Tinder Herpes Ben Sarle It had been nine days since Jessica spent the night with Hunter, who she had met on Tinder a couple of weeks prior. She started feeling the headache, fever, and nausea
More informationWhat Does HIV Do to You?
What Does HIV Do to You? HIV and the immune system Your immune system is supposed to protect you from viruses and other infections. Why, then, doesn t it protect you from HIV? The answer is complicated,
More information2. How might a person find more information about a vaccine? 3. Why should some people not get the MMR vaccine?
Vaccines & Herd Immunity Text adapted from http://www.vaccines.gov/basics/index.html and http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/body/herd-immunity.html [Retrieved Feb 2015] PART A: INDEPENDENT READING. On your own,
More informationNext, your teacher will ask everyone who is infected to raise their hand. How many people were infected?
Some Similarities between the Spread of an Infectious Disease and Population Growth by Jennifer Doherty and Dr. Ingrid Waldron, Department of Biology, University of Pennsylvania, 2007 1 How Does an Infectious
More informationThe Incidence Decay and Exponential Adjustment (IDEA) model: a new single equation model to describe epidemics and their simultaneous control.
The Incidence Decay and Exponential Adjustment (IDEA) model: a new single equation model to describe epidemics and their simultaneous control. David N. Fisman, MD MPH FRCP(C) Professor, Dalla Lana School
More informationSensitivity analysis for parameters important. for smallpox transmission
Sensitivity analysis for parameters important for smallpox transmission Group Members: Michael A. Jardini, Xiaosi Ma and Marvin O Ketch Abstract In order to determine the relative importance of model parameters
More informationToolkit Instructions. Read and complete the 5 assignments in this toolkit.
Keep it Safe Toolkit Toolkit Instructions Read and complete the 5 assignments in this toolkit. N. G. Bartholomew, D. F. Dansereau, K. Knight, and D. D. Simpson TCU Institute of Behavioral Research Welcome
More informationAbhinav: So, Ephraim, tell us a little bit about your journey until this point and how you came to be an infectious disease doctor.
Announcer: Welcome to the Science is the Best Medicine podcast with your host Dr. Abhinav Sharma, exploring the pressing scientific and healthcare issues of our time. Dr. Abhinav Sharma: Superbugs we hear
More informationDISEASE HOW ARE DISEASES SPREAD?
DISEASE HOW ARE DISEASES SPREAD? Starter: How is your body like a castle? Our skin is like the castle walls but microbes can enter through gaps in the defences AIM Can use simple physical models to show
More informationAssignment Discovery An Inside Look at the Flu.
Assignment Discovery An Inside Look at the Flu. BEFORE WATCHING, discuss and write your prior knowledge on these questions: 1. What causes the flu? 2. How can you prevent the flu? 3. Why doesn t everyone
More information