Sensing, Inference, and Intervention in Support of Mental Health

Transcription

1 Sensing, Inference, and Intervention in Support of Mental Health Eric Horvitz Microsoft Research CHI Workshop on Computing in Mental Health May 2016

2 HCI + AI: Growth in Resources & Competencies Data & computation Learning, inference, representation Causal inference * Perception LV FAIL ANAPHYLAXIS PULMONARY EMBOLUS NLP HYPOVOL ANESTHESIA INSUFFICIENT PAP SHUNT INTUBATION KINKED TUBE DISCONNECTION LVED VOLUME HISTORY LV FAILURE STROKE VOLUME CATECHOLAMINE VENT ALV VENT MACHINE CVP PCWP TPR CARDIAC OUTPUT SAO2 VENT LUNG VENT TUBE BLOOD PRESSURE HEART RATE PA SAT MV SETTING ERROR LOW OUTPUT ERROR CAUTER FIO2 PRESSURE MINUTE VENTILATION HR BP HR EKG HR SAT ARTERIAL CO2 EXPIRED CO2

3 HCI + AI: Growth in Resources & Competencies Data & computation Learning, inference, representation Causal inference * Perception LV FAIL ANAPHYLAXIS PULMONARY EMBOLUS NLP HYPOVOL ANESTHESIA INSUFFICIENT PAP SHUNT INTUBATION KINKED TUBE DISCONNECTION LVED VOLUME HISTORY LV FAILURE STROKE VOLUME CATECHOLAMINE VENT ALV VENT MACHINE CVP PCWP TPR CARDIAC OUTPUT SAO2 VENT LUNG VENT TUBE BLOOD PRESSURE HEART RATE PA SAT MV SETTING ERROR LOW OUTPUT ERROR CAUTER FIO2 PRESSURE MINUTE VENTILATION Tools & platforms HR BP HR EKG HR SAT ARTERIAL CO2 EXPIRED CO2

4 Data to Predictions to Interventions Sensed data Predictive model Decision model Predictions Actions

5 Data to Predictions to Interventions Sensed data Active learning Experience sampling Ideal experimentation Predictive model Decision model Predictions Actions

6 Revolution Brewing Computational social science Data Devices Life-centricity of web Representations & models Learning & inference Perception, predictions, decisions

7 Revolutions Brewing Computational social science Public health & epidemiology Data Devices Life-centricity of web Representations & models Learning & inference Perception, predictions, decisions

8 Revolutions Brewing Computational social science Public health & epidemiology Social psychology & personality Clinical psychology & psychiatry Data Devices Life-centricity of web Representations & models Learning & inference Perception, predictions, decisions

9 Revolution Brewing Mental health & wellbeing Data Devices Life-centricity of web Representations & models Learning & inference Perception, predictions, decisions

10 Evidential Streams & Inferences from Populations e.g., Search, Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, TalkLife, Crisis Txt Line, Apps Health insights & diagnosis Mental health & wellness

11 Wrestling with (the Wild West of) Population Data Supervised learning: experts, crowd, participants Unsupervised learning: clustering, topic modeling Causal modeling: propensity, Neyman-Rubin

12 Wrestling with (the Wild West of) Population Data Sensitivity, robustness, error modeling Statistics of rare events Sequence alignment NL psych models: LIWC, ANEW, etc. NL topics/sentiment: Emolex, SentiWordNet, Empath

13 Wrestling with Large-Scale Population Data Experimental design Matched sets for studies - Control - Test/intervention Example: Rare serious adverse effects of medications

14 Wrestling with Large-Scale Population Data Detect rare adverse effects of drugs Self-controlled study Query rate ratio γ D First D Last C S C S C S C S C D First θ β α D D α D β γ S S D First + θ Query Timeline D: query for drug of interest C: query for condition of interest S: query for symptom of C ignored surveillance window post D First surveillance window pre D First C or S α = D Last D First β = 7 days γ = 60 days θ = (α + β + γ) White, Harpaz, Shah, DuMouchel, Horvitz, Nature CPT, 2014

15 Wrestling with Large-Scale Population Data White, Harpaz, Shah, DuMouchel, Horvitz, Nature CPT, 2014

16 Wrestling with Large-Scale Population Data Alignment Machine learning to align Example: Pregnancy info needs Fourney, White, Horvitz, CHI 2015

17 Wrestling with Large-Scale Population Data Alignment Machine learning to align Example: Pregnancy info needs A. Fourney, R. White, E. Horvitz, CHI 2015 Fourney, White, Horvitz, CHI 2015

18 Wrestling with Large-Scale Population Data Alignment Machine learning to align Example: Pregnancy info needs A. Fourney, R. White, E. Horvitz, CHI 2015 Fourney, White, Horvitz, CHI 2015

19 Wrestling with Large-Scale Population Data Alignment Episodic structure Synthetic (per privacy), yet representative set of queries Example: Breast cancer Paul, White, Horvitz, TWEB 2016

20 Wrestling with Large-Scale Population Data Alignment Episodic structure Key pivot points Diagnosis date Screening Surgery Chemotherapy Example: Breast cancer Paul, White, Horvitz, TWEB 2016

21 Wrestling with Large-Scale Population Data Alignment Episodic structure Example: Breast cancer Paul, White, Horvitz, TWEB 2016

22 Wrestling with Large-Scale Population Data Alignment Episodic structure Key pivot points Diagnosis date Screening Surgery Chemotherapy Example: Breast cancer Paul, White, Horvitz, TWEB 2016

23 Wrestling with Large-Scale Population Data Alignment Episodic structure Key pivot points Diagnosis date Screening Surgery Chemotherapy Example: Breast cancer Paul, White, Horvitz, TWEB 2016

24 Propensity: Normalizing cohorts to understand influences u 1 timeline u 2 u 3 Learning outcome of action Kiciman and Richardson, KDD 2015

25 Propensity: Normalizing cohorts to understand influences timeline Kiciman and Richardson, KDD 2015

26 Propensity: Normalizing cohorts to understand influences timeline

27 Propensity: Normalizing cohorts to understand influences timeline p p

28 Kiciman and Richardson, KDD 2015

29 Opportunity: Major Life Changes Understand, support through difficult life changes Major illness Loss Death Divorce Birth Example: Birth of child Postpartum depression (PPD) CDC: ~15% 50% cases unreported De Choudhury, Counts, Horvitz. CSCW 2013, CHI 2013

30 Identifying Multiple Dimensions of a Life Change Identify tweets about births: Twitter Firehose 2,929 new mother candidates Gender classifier 10 tweets per candidate & profile 376 new mothers Birth! -3 months * + 3 months 1 st person pronoun

31 Structure & Dynamics of Engagement on Social Graph Engagement. Volume: mean normalized number of posts per day Replies, retweets, questions, shared links Ego network #inlinks; #outlinks De Choudhury, Counts, Horvitz. CSCW 2013, CHI 2013

32 Linguistic Analysis De Choudhury, Counts, Horvitz. CSCW 2013, CHI 2013

33 Linguistic analysis 3 o 1 o Neg. Affect

34 Patterns and Outcomes ~15% of new mothers: severe changes - Activity level down, - Language usage: 1 st person up, 3 rd person down, - Negative affect up, positive affect down

35 Predicting Postnatal Outcomes Predicting postpartum changes with data drawn before birth. Exciting family of results Human subjects + online: New mothers w/ FB timeline, Twitter Major depressive episodes De Choudhury, Gamon, Counts, Horvitz. ICWSM 2013 De Choudhury, Counts, Horvitz, Hoff. ICWSM 2014

36 Major Life Challenges: Major Illness Grappling with diagnosis & treatment Queries before & after inferred breast CA diagnoses Proxy for understanding if, how, and when life may return to normal? Paul, White, Horvitz, TWEB 2016 Paul, White, Horvitz, WWW 2015

37 Major Life Challenges: Grieving

38 Major Life Challenges: Grieving It is remarkable that this painful unpleasure is taken as a matter of course by us.

39 Major Life Challenges: Grieving It is remarkable that this painful unpleasure is taken as a matter of course by us. Normally, respect for reality gains the day.

40 Major Life Challenges: Grieving It is remarkable that this painful unpleasure is taken as a matter of course by us. Normally, respect for reality gains the day. In reality, however, this presentation is made up of innumerable single impressions (or unconscious traces of them), and this withdrawal of libido is not a process that can be accomplished in a moment, but most certainly, as in mourning, be one in which progress is long-drawn-out and gradual.

41 Opportunity: Assist with Complicated Grief Unusually severe & prolonged grieving that impairs function 2 to 3% of population worldwide Death: Child or life partner, sudden violent death High rates of suicidal ideation, risk-taking Value of psychotherapy N Engl J Med 2015;372:

42 Opportunity: Assist with Complicated Grief

43 Opportunity: Assist with Complicated Grief

44 On Sensitivity, Ethics, Disclosure Yom-Tov, White, Horvitz. JMIR, 2014.

45 On Sensitivity, Ethics, Disclosure Horvitz & Mulligan, Science 2015