Pandemic Influenza Weekly Situation Report. Sir Liam Donaldson Chief Medical Officer 23 July 2009

Transcription

1 Pandemic Influenza Weekly Situation Report Sir Liam Donaldson Chief Medical Officer 23 July 2009

2 Tracking data Deaths Hospitalisations Antiviral usage Total number of cases GP Consultations National Pandemic Flu Service

3 Influenza-like illness: Weekly consultation rate England & Wales 100,000 population Rate per 1 Week ending 19 th July: per 100,000 Source: RCGP, to 19 July

4 Influenza-like illness: Weekly consultation rate England & Wales - Historical Comparison First pandemic peak in early March 1969 Second pandemic peak at New Year 1969/1970 Seasonal Flu Source: RCGP

5 Influenza-like illness: Weekly consultation rate England & Wales - Historical Comparison Current pandemic activity Source: RCGP

6 Influenza-like illness: Daily consultation rate England May Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jul Jul Jul-09 Source: QSurveillance, to 22 July Rate per

7 Influenza-like illness: Weekly consultation rate By age group Rate per 100, < Week Source: RCGP to 19 July

8 Influenza-like illness: Daily consultation rate By Strategic Health Authority 90 Rate (per 100,000) North East North West Yorks. & Humberside East Midlands West Midlands East of England London South Central South East Coast South West 18/05/ /05/ /06/ /06/ /06/ /06/ /06/ /07/ /07/ /07/2009 Source: QSurveillance, to 22 July

9 Influenza-like illness: Daily consultation rate by Strategic Health Authority Tuesday 7 July Tuesday 14 July Tuesday 21 July Baseline activity Usual when influenza is circulating Above average influenza activity Daily rate < >26 Source: QSurveillance. Thresholds are indicative and provisional Exceptional influenza activity

10 Areas with the highest rates of consultations for influenza-like illness Rank (last week) Name of PCT Weekly Consultations per 100,000 1 (1) Tower Hamlets (3) Islington (-) new entry Greenwich (7) Leicester (-) new entry Telford & Wrekin (6) Lewisham (2) Hackney (9) Barking & Dagenham (-) new entry South Tyneside (-) new entry Redbridge 410 Source: QSurveillance, week ending 19 July

11 Influenza-like illness: Weekly consultation rates (increase over last week, rates per ) % North Tyneside % Blackburn with Darwen Stockport South Tyneside % 342% 319% Telford & Wrekin Source: QSurveillance, week ending 19 July

12 Influenza-like illness: Weekly consultation rates (decrease over last week, rates per ) Sandwell 19% Haringey 18% Heart of Birmingham 16% Luton 11% Source: QSurveillance, week ending 19 July

13 Influenza-like illness: Weekly consultation rates (PCT comparisons) Source: QSurveillance, week ending 19 July

14 Influenza-like illness: Weekly consultation rates (PCT comparison by population density) 321 Consultation rate per 100 0, Least densely populated Most densely populated Source: QSurveillance, week ending 19 July Office for National Statistics

15 Influenza-like illness: Weekly consultation rates (PCT comparison by age structure) 289 Consultation rate per 100 0, Oldest age structure Youngest age structure Source: QSurveillance, week ending 19 July Office for National Statistics

16 Cases of swine flu in England Estimated number of cases this week: 100,000 Source: Health Protection Agency

17 Hospitalised patients England Age group (years) < Total Total number of patients in hospital Number of patients in critical care At 22 July 0800

18 Hospitalisation ratios by age group Rate (per 100,000) Last week This week <5 5 to to Age group (years) At 22 July

19 Influenza deaths

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21 Part I: Diseases or conditions directly leading to death Part II: Other significant conditions contributing to the death but not related to the disease or condition causing it

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24 Deaths in past pandemics Number of deaths , ,000

25 Chief Medical Officer s Confidential Investigation of H1N1v deaths in England

26 Definition of a swine flu related death Death caused directly by swine flu (part I of death certificate) Swine flu contributed to death (part II of death certificate) AND/OR Patient tested positive for swine flu

27 Why are Last some week deaths (16 July) provisional? Death may not have been certified Swab results may not yet be available A post mortem may be planned

28 Deaths related to swine flu in England Total number of deaths during the outbreak 26* *Provisional At 22 July

29 Age distribution of fully investigated deaths 65+ yrs yrs 11% 17% 33% 0-15 yrs 39% yrs

30 Classification of underlying conditions General examples Healthy Mild conditions Moderate conditions Severe conditions No medical conditions, no medication High blood pressure, controlled by tablets Diabetes, controlled by insulin Leukaemia

31 Underlying conditions information for fully investigated deaths Healthy 16% 6% Mild conditions Severe conditions 67% 11% Moderate conditions

32 National Pandemic Flu Service Five key features Internet and telephone assessment of symptoms Use of medically-approved checklist, no independent judgement by call-centre operatives, RCGP involvement Antiviral authorisation and pick up by Flu Friend Normal route to GP open Advice to contact doctor directly if severe underlying health problems, under 1 year, pregnancy, or condition deteriorating but service still available if people use it anyway

33 Summary Weekly number of cases almost doubled Some evidence of falls in numbers Disease severity remains unchanged First validated information on deaths available National Pandemic Flu Service launched today