Development of the Polio Eradication and Endgame Strategic plan

Transcription

1 Development of the Polio Eradication and Endgame Strategic plan SAGE Meeting 6 November 2012

2 Overview Process, Consultations, Development Eradication and Endgame Outcomes and Activities Legacy Planning Next Steps Further development and finalization

3 Overview

4 World Health Assembly "DECLARES polio eradication an emergency for global public health requests DG to rapidly finalize a comprehensive polio endgame plan, with topv-bopv switch". 25 May 2012

5 Statement of Intent To complete the eradication & containment of all wild, vaccine-related and Sabin polioviruses, such that no child ever again suffers polio.

6 Ongoing consultations Endemic Countries Partners The GPEI Spearheading Partners WHO Regional Technical Consultations Broader Partnership Review and input from polio advisory bodies Regional Advisory Groups IMB (29-31 October) SAGE (6-8 November) WHO Executive Board January 2013

7 Eradication and Endgame Strategic Plan

8 Eradication and Endgame Strategy & Legacy Overview Based on best available data, polio eradication can be certified by 2018 Last wild polio case WPV certification Eradication Implement Emergency Action Plans Endgame Address pre-requisites; Build RI; Introduce IPV; topv-bopv switch; develop legacy plan Legacy Mainstream functions; transition key staff, infrastructure & systems Budget Core costs increase ~10% until last wild polio case, begin decline through 2018, and then drop significantly 8

9 Objectives and Milestones OBJECTIVES MILESTONES INTERRUPT WPV TRANSMISSION END-2014 LAST WPV CASE OPV2 WITHDRAWAL 2015/2016 topv-bopv Switch CONTAINMENT OF ALL WILD AND SABIN TYPE 2 VIRUSES GLOBAL CERTIFICATION LEGACY INITIATE PROCESS AND CONSULTATIONS

10 Objective 1: Interrupt Transmission Outcomes: Endemic Countries: Raise and maintain population immunity to stop transmission High-Risk Countries: Raise immunity to prevent outbreaks Key Activities: Intensive Schedule of SIAs Targeted SIA quality improvements Outbreak Response Strengthen Surveillance

11 SIA Plans for More campaigns Fewer campaigns WHO OPV CAMPAIGN DATA ENDEMIC COUNTRIES Afghanistan Pakistan Nigeria India COUNTRIES WITH RE-ESTABLISHED TRANSMISSION Chad DR Congo Angola Sudan S. Sudan COUNTRIES WITH RECURRENT IMPORTATIONS West Africa Niger Guinea Cote d'ivoire Mali Liberia Burkina Faso Sierra Leone Benin Mauritania Ghana Senegal Gambia Guinea Bissau Togo Cape Verde Horn of Africa Kenya Yemen Somalia Uganda Ethiopia Djibouti Eritrea Central Africa CAR Congo Cameroon Gabon Burundi Rwanda Zimbabwe Planned SIAs SIA plans as per the FRR and based upon UNICEF and WHO long-term projections. Complementary SIAs Additional activities (not shown in this calendar) concentrated in in endemic and high-risk countries. OTHER IMPORTATION-AFFECTED COUNTRIES Southeast Asia Nepal Bangladesh Myanmar Europe Tajikistan Uzbekistan Georgia Kyrgyzstan

12

13 Endemic Countries: Specific Plans To Improve Coverage Leadership: Oversight: Microplanning: Vaccine teams: Surge: Social Mob: for whole of gov't/society approach for program/partner performance for missed children to institutionalize best practices for worst-performing areas for community demand

14 Marked Step-up in Outbreak Response Minimum 5 rounds Increase in number Short interval (1 st 2 rounds) Increase age group (1 st 2 rounds) Joint National/International Assessments at 3 & 6 months

15 Objective 2: Sabin 2 Cessation Outcome: For all OPV-using countries Replacement of topv with bopv Key Activities Strengthen routine immunization Stop cvdpv2 outbreaks Introduce at least one dose of IPV into routine immunization topv-bopv switch Optimize surveillance for Sabin 2 viruses (including environmental)

16 Increasing Routine Coverage Based on GVAP Objectives In particular objectives 2, 3, and 4 Two-Pronged Approach Cross-Cutting: (1) Increase community demand and acceptance; (2) enhance monitoring, surveillance and data quality/use Key Geographies: direct technical support in microplanning and monitoring, including new strategies to tackle inequities

17 IPV Introduction (pending SAGE decisions) Number of IPV doses ('at least 1') Target date of introduction ( ) Proposed duration of use (at least 5 years after bopv cessation through 2024/5) Strategy for early introduction: Volume purchasing of whole dose, Intradermal and adjuvanted IM Risk Mitigation in High-Risk Areas

18 Geographic Scope of Work 130 OPV using countries

19 Optimizing Surveillance Targeted environmental surveillance (15-20 additional countries, to document type 2 disappearance): topv national producers cvdpv emergent areas (e.g. MOG; MAD) AFP surveillance strengthening: particular emphasis on certified regions for 2015 'switch'.

20 Objective 3: Global Containment and Certification Outcome: For all countries Certification of interruption of WPV transmission, and containment of all residual WPVs Key Activities Close surveillance gaps Reach international consensus on biocontainment requirements Implement certification processes

21 Non-polio AFP Rate Sep 2011 Aug 2012 Adequate Stool Collection Rate Sep 2011 Aug 2012

22 Status of Implementation of Phase I containment (national survey and inventory) EUR: PHASE I COMPLETE WPR: PHASE I COMPLETE PAHO: PHASE I COMPLETE Polio endemic Polio reestablished Reporting completion of survey & inventory

23 Certification and Containment Certification: GCC will consider 'concluding' type 2 eradication based on 10+ years & surveillance; requires near-term reconstitution of RCCs and GCC. Containment: secondary safeguards for Sabin-IPV are to be aligned with SAGE 'at least 1 dose' policy recommendation.

24 TIMELINE FOR MAJOR OBJECTIVES Last wild polio case WPV Phase 2 containment WPV certification Years Wild Virus Eradication Wild virus eradication Containment & Certification Post-OPV surveillance Sabin Virus Elimination Pre-requisites for OPV2 cessation Sabin 2 elimination & validation 1-dose IPV introduction Sabin 2 cessation Sabin 1 & 3 cessation

25 Major Challenges Interrupting wild virus (WPV) stopping endemic transmission preventing new national/int'l spread Globally synchronizing OPV2 cessation bopv & 'affordable' IPV supply logistics, communications, programmatic work WPV certification, VDPV verification, containment surveillance gaps in infected & certified areas consensus on post-opv2 outbreak management managing transition to full biocontainment

26 Managing Risks Operational Political Financial Societal

27 Financial Requirements Projected: US$ 5.5 billion covers

28 Financial Resource Requirements 2013 to 2018 by Endgame Strategy Outputs Total % of direct HIGH POPULATION IMMUNITY Planned OPV Campaigns $ 1,790,871, % Complementary OPV Campaigns $ 215,184, % IPV in Routine Immunization $ 274,110, % Sub-Total $ 2,280,166, % SURVEILLANCE AND RESPONSE CAPACITY Surveillance and Laboratory $ 448,777, % Environmental Surveillance $ 25,000, % Emergency Response $ 441,000, % Stockpiles for Emergency Response $ 24,600, % Sub-Total $ 939,377, % POLIOVIRUS CONTAINMENT Surveillance and Lab enhancement for certification $ 18,699, % Containment and Certification $ 55,000, % Sub-Total $ 73,699, % CORE FUNCTIONS AND INFRASTRUCTURE Ongoing quality improvement, surge capacity, endgame risk mgmt, OPV cessation, additional innovations & programmatic adjustments $ 416,600, % Technical Assistance $ 1,029,835, % Community Engagement and Social Mobilization $ 395,022, % Research and Product Development $ 60,000, % Sub-Total $ 1,901,457, % Subtotal Direct Costs $ 5,194,700,621 Indirect costs $ 343,993,075 GRAND TOTAL $ 5,538,693,697 India (GOI) Planned OPV Campaigns $ 1,153,280,401 India (GOI) IPV in RI $ 75,127,970 ANNUAL TOTAL w/goi $ 6,767,102,068

29 Legacy Planning

30 Objective 4: Legacy - Planning Planning for the post-polio era 1. Mainstream Polio Functions Immunization Surveillance and Response Containment 2. Ensure the knowledge, capacities, processes and assets created are utilized for other health initiatives

31 WHO Polio Staffing (end-2011)

32 Process Legacy - Planning 1. Map Assets, Infrastructure, Contributions to health systems, other initiatives 2. Broad Consultations 3. Proposals Developed 4. Decision Making and Planning

33 Proposed Timeframe Legacy - Planning ACTIVITY PURPOSE TIMEFRAME Map Assets To have a full picture of the polio infrastructure January April 2013 Stakeholder Consultations To understand risks/benefits Throughout 2013 WHO Regional Committees WHO Member State Input Q3-Q WHO Executive Board Review Proposals January 2014 World Health Assembly Decisions on Legacy May 2014

34 Next Steps

35 What's new about the plan? & Plans Open-ended timeline Wild virus focus only Geographic focus Intensified SIAs GPEI partners OPV only AFP surveillance Plan Comprehensive Plan All polio disease (+ VDPVs) Global focus Routine EPI + SIAs GPEI + GAVI (& GVAP) OPV + universal IPV AFP + env. sampling

36 Based on latest donor, IMB and stakeholder input The next version of the Strategic Plan will be restructured along the four major objectives: Interruption of Transmission Sabin 2 Removal Certification and Containment Legacy Planning Evidence base for objectives and risk mitigation will be built-out

37 Next Steps 7,8 November 2012 Polio Partners Group Meetings End-November Revised structure and content December 2012 Consultative Workshop January 2013 WHO Executive Board End-January 2013 Finalized plan

38 SAGE Input/Perspectives Endorsement/Revision of the major strategic thrusts Guidance on the proposed restructuring Perspectives on Timeline and Process

39 END

40 Cost Assumptions by Budget Category Budget Category Assumptions IPV in routine Includes 1 dose annually for countries currently conducting SIAs with OPV, GAVIeligible and GAVI graduate countries, and other OPV using countries starting with 50% uptake in 2014 and then 100% per year from 2015 to Surveillance /Lab Maintain 2013 surveillance and lab as per Oct 2012 FRR through 2018 Environmental Surveillance Annual provision of $5M from 2014 to 2018 Outbreak Response $66M in 2013; $50M for operations & $25M for vaccine/year from 2014 to 2018 Stockpile Stockpile Projections for 2014 ($24.6m) based upon existing contract; funds already transferred to UNICEF Fill/finish from OB response vaccine funds Certification and Containment Enhancements that may be required to surveillance and lab capacity in preparation for certification. Annual provision for regional and country level activities. Ongoing quality improvements, surge capacity, risk management Surge capacity in endemic and high-risk countries to interrupt transmission Unanticipated innovations to achieve and sustain interruption Ongoing unanticipated risk management activities Technical Assistance WHO AFR, EMR and SEAR based upon Sept 2012 planning exercise for ; other areas maintain tech asst. at 2013 levels through 2018 (as per Oct 2012 FRR) Community Engagement / Soc Mob Ongoing social mobilization activities Research/Prod Development Maintain $10 million per year from