Quarterly Hogs and Pigs

Transcription

1 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs ISSN: 9- Released December 23,, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United s Department of Agriculture (USDA). United s Hog Inventory Up 4 Percent United s inventory of all hogs and pigs on December, was 7.5 million head. This was up 4 from December, 205, and up slightly from September,. Breeding inventory, at 6.09 million head, was up from last year, and up from the previous quarter. Market hog inventory, at 65.4 million head, was up 4 from last year, and up slightly from last quarter. The September-November pig crop, at 32.3 million head, was up 5 from 205. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 3.04 million head, up 4 from 205. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 5 of the breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter was a record high 0.63 for the September-November period, compared to 0.53 last year. Pigs saved per litter by size of operation ranged from 8.20 for operations with - hogs and pigs to for operations with more than 5,000 hogs and pigs. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Inventory United s: December Million head

2 United s hog producers intend to have 2. million sows farrow during the December-February 207 quarter, up from the actual farrowings during the same period in, and up 3 from 205. Intended farrowings for March-May 207, at million sows, are up from, and up 5 from 205. The total number of hogs under contract owned by operations with over 5,000 head, but raised by contractees, accounted for 48 of the total United s hog inventory, up from 46 last year. Revisions All inventory and pig crop estimates for March 205 through September were reviewed using final pig crop, official slaughter, death loss, and updated import and export data. The net revision made to the June all hogs and pigs inventory was.3. A revision of 2.5 was made to the March-May pig crop. A revision of 0.6 was made to the September all hogs and pigs inventory. Records Record highs for all hogs and pigs, market hogs, pig crop and pigs per litter, by quarter, can be found on page 6. This report was approved on December 23,. Secretary of Agriculture Designate Jonathan J. Cordone Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Joseph L. Parsons 2 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (December )

3 Contents Hogs and Pigs Inventory by Class, Weight Group, and Quarter United s: 205 and... 4 Sows Farrowing, Pig Crop, and Pigs per Litter United s: Pigs per Litter by Size of Operation United s: 205 and... 5 Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory s and United s: December, 205 and... 6 Market Inventory by Weight Group s and United s: December, 205 and... 7 Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory s and United s: March, 205 and... 8 Market Inventory by Weight Group s and United s: March, 205 and... 8 Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory s and United s: June, 205 and... 9 Market Inventory by Weight Group s and United s: June, 205 and... 9 Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory s and United s: September, 205 and... 0 Market Inventory by Weight Group s and United s: September, 205 and... 0 Annual Sows Farrowing, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop s and United s: December-November 205 and... Sows Farrowing, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop s and United s: December-February Sows Farrowing, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop s and United s: March-May Sows Farrowing, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop s and United s: June-August 205 and... 3 Sows Farrowing, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop s and United s: September-November 205 and... 3 Monthly Sows Farrowing, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop United s: December-November 205 and... 4 Statistical Methodology... 5 Reliability of December Hog Estimates... 5 Records... 6 Records by Quarter United s: 866 to present... 6 Information Contacts... 6 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (December ) 3

4 Hogs and Pigs Inventory by Class, Weight Group, and Quarter United s: 205 and [May not add due to rounding] Item 205 March inventory All hogs and pigs... Kept for breeding... Market... (,000 head) (,000 head) () 67,3 5,2 6,48 68,24 5,0 62,44 Market hogs and pigs by weight groups Under 50 pounds pounds pounds pounds and over... 9,454 7,29 3,580,255 9,8 7, 3,89,229 June inventory All hogs and pigs... Kept for breeding... Market... 67,65 5,6 6,240 69,28 5,9 63,302 Market hogs and pigs by weight groups Under 50 pounds pounds pounds pounds and over... 9,365 7,46 2,5,429 20,356 8, 3,29,456 September inventory All hogs and pigs... Kept for breeding... Market... 69,85 5,6 63,200 7,286 6,06 65,270 Market hogs and pigs by weight groups Under 50 pounds pounds pounds pounds and over... 20,74 8,4 2,855, 2,090 8,85 3,65,73 December inventory All hogs and pigs... Kept for breeding... Market... 68,99 6,002 62,97 7,500 6,090 65,40 Market hogs and pigs by weight groups Under 50 pounds pounds pounds pounds and over... 20,008 7,262 3,370 2,276 20,2 8,037 3,9 2,580 4 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (December )

5 Sows Farrowing, Pig Crop, and Pigs per Litter United s: [May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] Item Sows farrowing December-February 2... March-May 2... December-May as of (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) () () 2,8 2,854 5,749 2,7 2,8 5,8 2,8 2,7 5,5 June-August... September-November... June-November... 3,07 2,9 5,6 3,025 3,043 6,068 Pig crop December-February... March-May... December-May... 29,627 29,5 59,29 30,39 3,0 6,236 June-August... September-November... June-November... 3,343 30,848 62,9 3,7 32,333 64,320 Pigs per litter December-February... March-May... December-May... (number) (number) (number) () () June-August... September-November... June-November December preceding year. 2 Intentions for 207. Pigs per Litter by Size of Operation United s: 205 and [December preceding year] Pig crop 205 December-February... March-May... June-August... September-November... - head -4 head Pigs per litter on operations having head,000-,9 head 2,000-4,9 head 5,000+ head (number) (number) (number) (number) (number) (number) December-February... March-May... June-August... September-November Pigs per litter rounded to the nearest tenth. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (December ) 5

6 Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory s and United s: December, 205 and [May not add due to rounding] Alabama... Alaska... Arizona... Arkansas... California... Colorado... Connecticut... Delaware... Florida... Georgia Breeding Market Total (,000 head) (,000 head) () (,000 head) (,000 head) () (,000 head) (,000 head) () Hawaii... Idaho... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Kentucky... Louisiana... Maine... Maryland , , , , ,870.00, , , ,370.00, ,.00 3, ,900.00, ,.00 4,.00 22,400.00, Massachusetts... Michigan... Minnesota... Mississippi... Missouri... Montana... Nebraska... Nevada... New Hampshire... New Jersey , , ,65 5 2, , , ,66 5 2, , , , , ,.00 8, , , New Mexico... New York... North Carolina... North Dakota... Ohio... Oklahoma... Oregon... Pennsylvania... Rhode Island... South Carolina , ,30.00,640.00, , ,500.00, , , , , , , , ,50.00, South Dakota... Tennessee... Texas... Utah... Vermont... Virginia... Washington... West Virginia... Wisconsin... Wyoming , , , , Idaho and Washington United s... 6, ,09 Withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations. 62, , , ,50 6 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (December )

7 Market Inventory by Weight Group s and United s: December, 205 and [Weight groups may not add to market inventory due to rounding] Alabama... Alaska... Arizona... Arkansas... California... Colorado... Connecticut... Delaware... Florida... Georgia... Under 50 pounds 50-9 pounds pounds 80 pounds and over (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) Hawaii... Idaho... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Kentucky... Louisiana... Maine... Maryland...,440.00, , ,450.00, , , , ,360.00, , , , , , Massachusetts... Michigan... Minnesota... Mississippi... Missouri... Montana... Nebraska... Nevada... New Hampshire... New Jersey , , , , , , , , , , New Mexico... New York... North Carolina... North Dakota... Ohio... Oklahoma... Oregon... Pennsylvania... Rhode Island... South Carolina , , , , , , , , South Dakota... Tennessee... Texas... Utah... Vermont... Virginia... Washington... West Virginia... Wisconsin... Wyoming Idaho and Washington United s... 20, ,2.40 7,26 Withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations. 8, ,37 3,9 2, , Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (December ) 7

8 Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory s and United s: March, 205 and [May not add due to rounding] Colorado... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Michigan... Minnesota... Missouri... Nebraska... North Carolina Breeding Market Total (,000 head) (,000 head) () (,000 head) (,000 head) () (,000 head) (,000 head) () , , 3,470 9,770,685,030 7,430 2,500 2,730 7, ,650 3,490 9,220,755,060 7,440 2,65 2,0 7,0 70 4,750 3,750 20,800,860,40 8,000 2,900 3,50 8, ,50 3,750 20,200,0,70 8,000 3,000 3,400 8,800 Ohio... Oklahoma... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Texas... Utah ,50,750,040, ,465,660,030, ,330 2,90,40, ,650 2,40,40, Other s ,763 2,744 3,79 3,54 United s... 5,2 5,0 6,48 62,44 67,3 68,24 Individual estimates not available for the 34 Other s. Market Inventory by Weight Group s and United s: March, 205 and [Weight groups may not add to market inventory due to rounding] Colorado... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Michigan... Minnesota... Missouri... Nebraska... North Carolina... Under 50 pounds 50-9 pounds pounds 80 pounds and over (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) 280, , ,600, 870 2,800,500,040 4, ,600,,000 3,80, 0 6, , ,80, , 465 2, , ,0 335, , , , , , , , , , ,300 Ohio... Oklahoma... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Texas... Utah Other s..., United s... 9,454 9,8 7,29 7, 3,580 3,89,255,229 Individual estimates not available for the 34 Other s. 8 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (December )

9 Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory s and United s: June, 205 and [May not add due to rounding] Colorado... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Michigan... Minnesota... Missouri... Nebraska... North Carolina Breeding Market Total (,000 head) (,000 head) () (,000 head) (,000 head) () (,000 head) (,000 head) () , ,60 3,380 20,000, ,600 2,505 2,790 7, ,670 3,590 9,830,765,040 7,540 2,605 3,075 8, ,650 3,650 2,000,870, 8,50 2,900 3,200 8, ,200 3,850 20,800,0,50 8, 3,000 3,500 9, 2 4 Ohio... Oklahoma... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Texas... Utah ,,790,065, ,370,700,050, ,380 2,230,70, ,550 2,70,50, Other s ,830 2,687 3,245 3,09 United s... 5,6 5,9 6,240 63,302 67,65 69,28 Individual estimates not available for the 34 Other s. Market Inventory by Weight Group s and United s: June, 205 and [Weight groups may not add to market inventory due to rounding] Colorado... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Michigan... Minnesota... Missouri... Nebraska... North Carolina... Under 50 pounds 50-9 pounds pounds 80 pounds and over (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) 270, 0 5, ,570, , ,420,020 5, ,550,35 0 3,80 25,240,000 6, , ,650 20,460,20 6, , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,500 Ohio... Oklahoma... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Texas... Utah Other s..., United s... 9,365 20,356 7,46 8, 2,5 3,29,429,456 Individual estimates not available for the 34 Other s. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (December ) 9

10 Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory s and United s: September, 205 and [May not add due to rounding] Colorado... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Michigan... Minnesota... Missouri... Nebraska... North Carolina Breeding Market Total (,000 head) (,000 head) () (,000 head) (,000 head) () (,000 head) (,000 head) () , ,300 3,570 20,500,780,000 7,390 2,700 2,840 7, ,470 3,720 2,20,820,025 7,730 2,805 3,30 8, ,800 3,850 2,500,0, 7,0 3, 3, 8, ,000 4,000 22, 2,000,30 8,300 3,200 3,550 9,200 Ohio... Oklahoma... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Texas... Utah ,235,770,090, ,40,765,055, ,420 2,240,90, ,600 2,220,50, Other s ,0 2,675 3,2 3,086 United s... 5,6 6,06 63,200 65,270 69,85 7,286 Individual estimates not available for the 34 Other s. Market Inventory by Weight Group s and United s: September, 205 and [Weight groups may not add to market inventory due to rounding] Colorado... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Michigan... Minnesota... Missouri... Nebraska... North Carolina... Under 50 pounds 50-9 pounds pounds 80 pounds and over (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) 30,370,040 5, ,600,2 90 3, 270,440,050 5, ,650, ,240 20,330,050 6, , ,000 25,380,080 6, , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,470 Ohio... Oklahoma... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Texas... Utah Other s..., United s... 20,74 2,090 8,4 8,85 2,855 3,65,,73 Individual estimates not available for the 34 Other s. 0 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (December )

11 Annual Sows Farrowing, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop s and United s: December-November 205 and [December preceding year. May not add due to rounding] Alabama... Alaska... Arizona... Arkansas... California... Colorado... Connecticut... Delaware... Florida... Georgia... Sows farrowing Pigs per litter Pig crop (,000 head) (,000 head) () (number) (number) (,000 head) (,000 head) () ,32 6 2, , , Hawaii... Idaho... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Kentucky... Louisiana... Maine... Maryland , , , , 5, ,04 3, , , ,40 3, Massachusetts... Michigan... Minnesota... Mississippi... Missouri... Montana... Nebraska... Nevada... New Hampshire... New Jersey , , , 2,739.00,3 8, , , ,89, 8, , New Mexico... New York... North Carolina... North Dakota... Ohio... Oklahoma... Oregon... Pennsylvania... Rhode Island... South Carolina..., , , ,78 8, , , , , , South Dakota... Tennessee... Texas... Utah... Vermont... Virginia... Washington... West Virginia... Wisconsin... Wyoming ,83 4,74, , ,6, Idaho and Washington United s...,6.62, , , Withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (December )

12 Sows Farrowing, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop s and United s: December-February [December preceding year. May not add due to rounding] Colorado... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Michigan... Minnesota... Missouri... Nebraska... North Carolina... Sows farrowing Pigs per litter Pig crop as of (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) () (number) (number) (,000 head) (,000 head) () ,4,44 5, ,35 2,009,870 4, ,5,428 5, ,053,2,8 4,554 Ohio... Oklahoma... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Texas... Utah , , , Other s ,3,890 United s... 2,8 2,7 2, Number of pigs born December-February that were still on hand March, or had been sold. 2 Intentions. 3 Individual estimates not available for the 34 Other s. 29,627 30,39 Sows Farrowing, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop s and United s: March-May [May not add due to rounding] Colorado... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Michigan... Minnesota... Missouri... Nebraska... North Carolina... Sows farrowing Pigs per litter Pig crop as of (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) () (number) (number) (,000 head) (,000 head) () ,45,365 5, ,039 2,080,904 4, ,652,362 5, ,49 2,040 2, 4, Ohio... Oklahoma... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Texas... Utah , , , Other s ,048 2,08 United s... 2,854 2,8 2,7 Number of pigs born March-May that were still on hand June, or had been sold. 2 Intentions 3 Individual estimates not available for the 34 Other s ,5 3,0 2 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (December )

13 Sows Farrowing, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop s and United s: June-August 205 and [May not add due to rounding] Colorado... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Michigan... Minnesota... Missouri... Nebraska... North Carolina Sows farrowing Pigs per litter Pig crop (,000 head) (,000 head) () (number) (number) (,000 head) (,000 head) () ,639,537 5, ,40 2,8,8 4, ,690,537 5, ,330 2,72 2, 4,8 Ohio... Oklahoma... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Texas... Utah , ,30 502, Other s ,022 2,0 United s... 3,07 3, ,343 3,7 Number of pigs born June-August that were still on hand September, or had been sold. 2 Individual estimates not available for the 34 Other s. Sows Farrowing, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop s and United s: September-November 205 and [May not add due to rounding] Colorado... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Michigan... Minnesota... Missouri... Nebraska... North Carolina... Sows Farrowing Pigs per litter Pig crop (,000 head) (,000 head) () (number) (number) (,000 head) (,000 head) () ,432,404 5, ,64 2,028 2,007 4, ,756,442 6, ,360 2, 2,0 4,738 3 Ohio... Oklahoma... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Texas... Utah , ,057 55, Other s ,06 2,026 United s... 2,9 3, ,848 32,333 Number of pigs born September-November that were still on hand December, or had been sold. 2 Individual estimates not available for the 34 Other s. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (December ) 3

14 Monthly Sows Farrowing, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop United s: December-November 205 and [December preceding year] Month December... January... February... March... April... May... June... July... August... September... October... November... Sows farrowing Pigs per litter Pig crop (,000 head) (,000 head) (number) (number) (,000 head) (,000 head) ,07 7,003, , ,02,004 9,050, ,3 9,8 9,809 0,03 9,87 9,745 0,528 0,359 0,456 0,558 0,326 9,5 0, 0,24 9,86 0,673 0,7 0,308 0,740 0,603 0,643,5 0,678 0,504 Total...,6, ,4 25,556 Monthly values may not add to quarterly or annual totals due to rounding. 4 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (December )

15 Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: A random sample of roughly 0,500 United s producers was surveyed to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all hog and pig producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. Large operations were sampled more heavily than small operations. During the first half of December, data were collected from about 7,350 operations, 70 of the total sample. The data collected were received by electronic data reporting, mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews. Regardless of when operations responded, they were asked to report inventories as of December,. Estimating Procedures: Hogs and pigs estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each field office. National and survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from past years using a balance sheet. The balance sheet begins with the previous inventory estimate, adds the estimates of births and imports, and subtracts the estimates of slaughter, exports, and deaths. This indicated ending inventory level is compared to the Agricultural Statistics Board estimate for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve quarter to quarter relationships. Estimates for the previous four quarters are subject to revision when current estimates are made. In December, estimates for all quarters of the current and previous year are reviewed. The reviews are primarily based on hog check-off receipts and slaughter. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Department of Agriculture five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations raising hogs are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplication, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the difference between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for hog inventory estimates over the past 20 quarters is.4. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 7.5 million head by more than.4. Chances are 9 out of 0 that the difference will not exceed 2.4. Reliability of December Hog Estimates [Based on data for the previous twenty quarters] Item All hogs and pigs... Root mean square error 90 confidence level Difference between first and latest estimate Average Smallest Largest Below latest Years Above latest () () (,000) (,000) (,000) (number) (number) , Pig crop , 3 7 Expected farrowings Next quarter Following quarter Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (December ) 5

16 Records The table below provides data users with record high estimates of all hogs and pigs, market hogs, pig crop and pigs per litter since each data series began. Records by Quarter United s: 866 to present Item Estimate Record high Series began All hogs and pigs March... June... September... December... (,000 head) (year) (year) 68,24 69,28 7,286 83, Market March... June... September... December... 62,44 63,302 65,270 65, Pig crop December-February... March-May... June-August... September-November... 30,39 32,355 3,7 32, Pigs per litter December-February... March-May... June-August... September-November... December preceding year. (number) (year) (year) Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch... (202) Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section... (202) Sherry Bertramsen Livestock Slaughter... (202) David Colwell Sheep and Goats... (202) Donnie Fike Dairy Products... (202) Michael Klamm Cattle, Cattle on Feed... (202) Mike Miller Milk Production and Milk Cows... (202) Seth Riggins Hogs and Pigs... (202) Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (December )

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