Marquette Law School Poll: October 3-7, 2018

Transcription

1 Marquette Law School Poll: October 3-7, 2018 Likely voters (Percentages are rounded to whole numbers for reporting of results. Frequencies have been rounded to whole numbers but percentages are calculated based on non-integer weighted sample sizes.) Results for survey items among likely voters are presented here. Please note that some questions are only asked of particular groups of respondents. In these instances, the row NA s includes the number and percent of total respondents omitted from the question. These omitted cases are ignored when calculating the Valid and Cumulative percent columns. Record Gender Male Female Do you currently live in Wisconsin? Yes Do you currently live within Milwaukee city limits? Yes No NA NA NA Some people are registered to vote and others are not. Are you registered to vote in the precinct or ward where you now live, or aren t you? Yes, registered to vote No, not registered to vote Don t Know/Refused

2 Do you plan to register to vote, or is there a chance that you may not register? Plan to Register NA NA NA Some people seem to follow what s going on in politics most of the time, whether there s an election going on or not. Others aren t that interested. Would you say you follow what s going on in politics most of the time, some of the time, only now and then, or hardly at all? Most of the time Some of the time Only now and then Hardly at all Don t know Refused What are the chances that you will vote in the November 2018 general election for governor, Congress, and other offices are you absolutely certain to vote, very likely to vote, are the chances 50-50, don t you think you will vote or have you already voted either by absentee ballot or early in person voting? Absolutely certain Very likely Will not vote Already voted Don t know Refused Over the past year, do you feel the economy has gotten better, gotten worse, or stayed about the same? Gotten better Gotten worse Stayed the same Don t know Refused

3 Looking ahead, over the next year do you expect the economy to get better, get worse, or stay about the same? Get better Get worse Stay the same Don t know Refused Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president? Approve Disapprove Don t know Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president? Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don t know Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Scott Walker is handling his job as Governor of Wisconsin? Approve Disapprove Don t know Refused Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Scott Walker is handling his job as Governor of Wisconsin? Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove

4 Don t know Refused Fav/Unfav: Ron Johnson Favorable Unfavorable Haven t heard enough Don t know Refused Fav/Unfav: Tammy Baldwin Favorable Unfavorable Haven t heard enough Don t know Fav/Unfav: Paul Ryan Favorable Unfavorable Haven t heard enough Don t know Fav/Unfav: Tony Evers Favorable Unfavorable Haven t heard enough Don t know

5 Fav/Unfav: Leah Vukmir Favorable Unfavorable Haven t heard enough Don t know Fav/Unfav: Josh Kaul Favorable Unfavorable Haven t heard enough Don t know Refused Fav/Unfav: Brad Schimel Favorable Unfavorable Haven t heard enough Don t know Fav/Unfav: Phil Anderson Favorable Unfavorable Haven t heard enough Don t know Refused Fav/Unfav: Mandela Barnes Favorable Unfavorable Haven t heard enough Don t know

6 Refused Fav/Unfav: Rebecca Kleefisch Favorable Unfavorable Haven t heard enough Don t know Refused Fav/Unfav: Scott Walker Favorable Unfavorable Haven t heard enough Don t know Refused Fav/Unfav: Donald Trump Favorable Unfavorable Haven t heard enough Don t know Refused If the election for U.S. Senate were being held today and the candidates were Tammy Baldwin the Democrat and Leah Vukmir the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tammy Baldwin Leah Vukmir Neither (VOL) Didn t vote for this race (VOL) Don t know Refused

7 Would you say you lean toward Baldwin or toward Vukmir? Tammy Baldwin Leah Vukmir Neither (VOL) Don t know Refused NA NA NA Senate vote preference with leaners Tammy Baldwin Leah Vukmir Neither (VOL) Don t know Refused NA 1 0 NA NA If the election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Tony Evers the Democrat, Scott Walker the Republican, and Phil Anderson the Libertarian, for whom would you vote? Tony Evers Scott Walker Phil Anderson None of these (VOL) Didn t vote for this race (VOL) Don t know Refused Would you say you lean toward Evers or toward Walker or toward Anderson? Tony Evers Scott Walker Phil Anderson None of these (VOL) Don t know Refused NA NA NA 7

8 Governor vote preference with leaners Tony Evers Scott Walker Phil Anderson None of these (VOL) Didn t vote for this race (VOL) Don t know Refused NA 2 0 NA NA If the election for Wisconsin Attorney General were being held today and the candidates were Josh Kaul the Democrat and Brad Schimel the Republican for whom would you vote? Josh Kaul Brad Schimel Neither (VOL) Didn t vote for this race (VOL) Don t know Refused Would you say you lean toward Kaul or toward Schimel? Josh Kaul Brad Schimel Neither (VOL) Don t know Refused NA NA NA Attorney General vote preference with leaners Josh Kaul Brad Schimel Neither (VOL) Don t know Refused NA 1 0 NA NA 8

9 In general, which of the following statements do you agree with more: (1) I d rather pay higher taxes and have a state government that provides more services (2) I d rather pay lower taxes and have a state government that provides fewer services Prefer pay higher taxes; state gov t provide more services Prefer pay lower taxes; state gov t provide fewer services Don t know Refused Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Brett Kavanaugh, who has been nominated to the U.S. Supreme Court, or haven t you heard enough about him yet to have an opinion? Favorable Unfavorable Haven t heard enough Don t know Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Christine Blasey Ford, who testified that Brett Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her during a party in high school, or haven t you heard enough about her yet to have an opinion? Favorable Unfavorable Haven t heard enough Don t know Refused If you had a vote in the Senate, would you support or oppose the nomination of Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court? Support Oppose Don t know Refused

10 How much attention did you pay to the recent senate hearings on the Kavanaugh nomination? Did you watch the hearings live on television, follow the news closely about the hearings but not watch them live, read or watch some news coverage but didn t follow closely or did you not pay much attention to the hearings? Watched live Followed news closely Saw some coverage but didn t follow closely Did not pay much attention Don t know Thinking just about the state of Wisconsin, do you feel things in Wisconsin are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track? Right direction Wrong track Don t know Refused As you may know, Foxconn Corporation has announced it will build a large video display factory in Racine County employing up to 13,000 workers. The state is providing up to $3 billion dollars of taxpayer money to Foxconn as an incentive to locate the plant in Wisconsin. Do you think the Foxconn plant will ultimately provide this much or more benefit to the state or is the state paying more than the plant is worth? Will provide this much or more benefit State is paying more than the plant is worth Don t know Refused NA NA NA Do you think the Foxconn factory in Racine County will substantially improve the economy of the larger Milwaukee area? Will substantially improve the economy Will not substantially improve the economy Don t know Refused NA NA NA 10

11 Do you think businesses near where you live will directly benefit from this new Foxconn manufacturing plant? Yes, will benefit No, will not benefit Don t know Refused NA NA NA How much confidence do you have in the special counsel Robert Muellerto conduct a fair and impartial investigation into Russia s involvement in the 2016 presidential election a great deal, some, only a little, or no confidence at all? A great deal Some Only a little No confidence at all Don t know Refused NA NA NA How much do you think the state of Wisconsin has done to address the problem of opioid and prescription pain killer addiction: a lot, a fair amount, only a little or almost nothing? A lot A fair amount Only a little Almost nothing Don t know Refused NA NA NA Has Governor Walker done all that he should to address issues of prisoner abuse at the Lincoln Hills and Copper Lake juvenile prisons or has he not paid enough attention to the abuse issues there, or haven t you heard enough about this? Has done all he should Not paid enough attention Haven t heard about this Don t know Refused NA NA NA 11

12 Would you like to see the 2010 health care law, the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, remain in place, or would you like to see it repealed? Remain in place See it repealed Don t know Refused As you may know, the 2010 health care law prohibits health insurance companies from denying coverage because of a person s medical history or pre-existing conditions. How important is it to you that insurance companies continue to be required to cover pre-existing conditions: very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? Very important Somewhat important Not too important Not at all important Don t know Refused Do you favor or oppose having a national health plan, or Medicare-for-all, in which all Americans would get their insurance from a single government plan? Is that strongly favor/oppose or somewhat favor/oppose? Strongly favor Somewhat favor Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose Don t know Refused Which is more important to you: reduce property taxes or increase spending on public schools? Reducing property taxes Increasing spending on public schools Don t know Refused

13 As you may know, in 2011 a law known as Act 10 eliminated most collective bargaining for public employees in Wisconsin. Would you like to see collective bargaining for public employees returned to what it was before Act 10 was passed or keep the current law that eliminated most collective bargaining? Return collective bargaining Keep as it is now Don t know Refused How would you rate the quality of roads and highways where you live? Excellent Good Fair Poor Don t know Refused Which is more important to you: keeping the gas tax and vehicle registration fees where they are now or raising the gas tax and registration fees to increase spending on roads and highways? Keep gas tax and fees where they are Raise tax and fees to increase spending on roads Don t know Refused Did you personally like Scott Walker s decision to run for president in 2016? Liked Didn t like Don t know Refused Do you think that Donald Trump has changed the Republican Party for the better or for the worse or don t you think he has changed the Republican Party much either way? Changed for the better Changed for the worse

14 Hasn t changed Republican Party much either way Don t know Refused How enthusiastic are you about voting in this November s elections? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic? Very Somewhat Not too Not at all Won t vote in November (VOL) Don t know Thinking about your family s financial situation, would you say you are living comfortably, just getting by, or struggling to make ends meet? Living comfortably Just getting by Struggling Don t know Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent? Republican Democrat Independent Other/No preference (VOL) Don t know Refused Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party? Republican Democratic Neither/Just Independent (VOL)

15 Don t know Refused NA NA NA What is the highest level of education you completed? Elementary school only Some high school / did not finish Completed high school Some college but didn t finish Two year college degree Four year college degree Some graduate work Completed masters or professional degree Advanced graduate work or Ph.D Don t know Refused What is your age?

16 Refused

17 [If Refused] Are you years old years old years old years old or more Don t know Refused NA NA NA Are you currently married, living with a partner but not married, widowed, divorced, separated, or have you never been married? Married Cohabiting Widowed Divorced Separated Never Married Don t know How many children under 18 are currently living with you, if any? None One Two Three Four Five or more Refused Are you of Hispanic or Latino origin, such as Mexican, Puerto Rican, Cuban or some other Spanish background? Yes No Don t know Refused

18 Would you describe yourself as White, African American or Black, Asian, Native American, of more than one race or some other race? White African American or Black Asian, South Asian or Pacific Islander Native American or American Indian More than one race Hispanic or Latino Other (SPECIFY) Don t know Refused Aside from weddings and funerals, how often do you attend religious services... more than once a week, once a week, once or twice a month, a few times a year, seldom, or never? More than 1/wk /week month few times a year Seldom Never Don t know Refused What is your religious preference are you Protestant, Roman Catholic, Jewish, Muslim, another religion or no religion? Protestant Roman Catholic Jewish Muslim/Islam Mormon/Latter-Day Saints Other Christian Religion Other Non-Christian Religion No Religion/Atheist/Agnostic Don t know Refused Would you describe yourself as a born-again or evangelical Christian, or not? born again

19 not born again Don t know Refused NA NA NA Last year, that is in 2017, what was your total family income from all sources, before taxes? Just stop me when I get to the right category. Less than $10, to under $20, to under $30, to under $40, to under $50, to under $75, to under $100, to under $150, $150,000 or more Over $200, Don t know Refused Would you describe the place where you live as urban, suburban or rural? Urban Suburban Rural Don t know In general, would you describe your political views as... Very conservative Conservative Moderate Liberal Very liberal Don t know Refused

20 Are you or any member of your household a member of a local, state or national labor union? respondent another household member nobody in household Don t know Do you or any member of your household work for federal, state, or local government for example, as a public school teacher, police officer, firefighter, or other government job? Yes No Don t know Refused Of all the personal telephone calls that you receive, do you get...? All or almost all on a cell phone Some on a cell phone and some on a home phone All or almost all on a regular home phone Don t know Refused Is this phone a cell phone? Yes No wave 1/19-22/ /16-19/ /22-25/ /26-29/ /9-12/ /23-26/ /13-16/

21 7/5-8/ /2-5/ /16-19/ /13-16/ /27-30/ /11-14/ /25-28/ /11-13/ /6-9/ /15-18/ /21-24/ /20-23/ /20-23/ /15-18/ /17-20/ /21-24/ /11-14/ /25-28/ /9-12/ /23-26/ /7-10/ /13-16/ /24-28/ /12-15/ /21-24/ /18-21/ /24-28/ /9-12/ /7-10/ /4-7/ /25-28/ /15-18/ /6-9/ /26-31/ /13-16/ /22-25/ /25-3/1/ /13-17/ /11-15/ /15-19/ /12-16/ /3-7/ Poll Dates

22 Sex Male Female Age 4 categories DK/NA/ Ref Age 6 categories DK/NA/Ref Race 3 categories White Black Other DK/NA/Ref Hispanic/Latino Yes No DK/NA/Ref

23 Education 5 categories Not HS HS Some Coll AA BA DK/NA/ Ref Education 5 with Post-BA Not HS hs Some Coll/AA ba Post BA DK/NA/Ref Education 6 AA, BA, and MA Not HS hs Some Coll aa ba Post-BA DK/NA/Ref category Party ID including leaners Republican Democrat Independent Other/None category Party ID no leaners Republican

24 Democrat Independent Other/None Party ID 5 categories, leaners separate Rep Lean Rep Ind Lean Dem Dem Other/None Race/Ethnicity White Black Hispanic Other DK/NA/ Ref Income Recode Under $40k $40k to $74k $75k up DK/NA/ Ref Region/Media Market MKE City Rest of MKE msn GB/A Rest of state

25 Region 2/MKE, WOW, Media Market MKE City WOW Counties Rest of MKE MSN GB/A Rest of state Region 7/MKE, WOW, Media Market MKE City WOW Counties Rest of MKE msn GB/A Lax/EC MSP,DS/WauRhine category Media Market MKE City WOW Counties Rest of MKE Dane Rock Rest of MSN Lax/EC GB/A Wau/MSP/DS