Current and future market dynamics overview
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1 OVERVIEW Catalyst Summary EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Strategic scoping and focus Datamonitor key findings Related reports MARKET DEFINITION Published diabetes reports Market definition for antidiabetic drugs Forecast methodology and assumptions Methodology flow Patent expiries New product launches Additional forecast methodology MARKET OVERVIEW AND CONTEXT PRODUCT FORECASTS Current and future market dynamics overview DPP-IV inhibitors and GLP-1 agonists will dominate non-insulin antidiabetics sales US continues to dominate antidiabetic sales US market declines with loss of Actos exclusivity before rising again Japan market provides key late-stage revenues for Actos franchise even with generic competition GLP-1 agonists will continue their high uptake in France Germany s reimbursement regulations could raise market entry barrier for pipeline products DPP-IV inhibitors will dominate key non-insulin antidiabetic sales in Italy Marketed and pipeline products drive Spanish market growth Strong growth in diagnosed diabetes population drives UK market. DPP-IV inhibitor product forecasts Januvia franchise (sitagliptin; Merck & Co.) Galvus franchise (vildagliptin; Novartis) Onglyza franchise (saxagliptin; Bristol-Myers Squibb/AstraZeneca) Nesina franchise (alogliptin; Takeda) Tradjenta franchise (linagliptin; Boehringer Ingelheim/Eli Lilly) Teneligliptin (Mitsubishi Tanabe) GLP-1 agonist product forecasts Byetta (exenatide twice-daily; Amylin) Victoza (liraglutide; Novo Nordisk) Bydureon (exenatide once-weekly; Amylin/Alkermes) Lyxumia (lixisenatide; Sanofi/Zealand Pharma)
2 BIBLIOGRAPHY APPENDIX TABLES Syncria (albiglutide; GlaxoSmithKline) LY (dulaglutide; Eli Lilly) Glitazone product forecasts Actos franchise (pioglitazone; Takeda) SGLT-2 inhibitor product forecasts General Sources Datamonitor reports Forecast methodology Report methodology Dapagliflozin franchise (Bristol-Myers Squibb/AstraZeneca) Canagliflozin franchise (Johnson & Johnson/Mitsubishi Tanabe) BI (empagliflozin; Boehringer Ingelheim/Eli Lilly) ASP-1941 franchise (ipragliflozin; Astellas) Volume and value forecast methodology Price and compliance assumptions Table: Marketed non-insulin antidiabetics forecast to brand/franchise level, 11 Table: Pipeline non-insulin antidiabetics forecast to brand/franchise level, 11 Table: Estimated patent expiry dates/generic and biosimilar launches in the antidiabetics market, Table: Estimated launch dates for key late-stage pipeline products and marketed brands in diabetes in the seven major markets, Table: Key branded sales for non-insulin antidiabetics in the US, by brand ($m), Table: Key branded sales for non-insulin antidiabetics in Japan, by brand ($m), Table: Key branded sales for non-insulin antidiabetics in France, by brand ($m), Table: Key branded sales for non-insulin antidiabetics in Germany, by brand ($m), 11 Table: Key branded sales for non-insulin antidiabetics in Italy, by brand ($m), Table: Key branded sales for non-insulin antidiabetics in Spain, by brand ($m), Table: Key branded sales for non-insulin antidiabetics in the UK, by brand ($m), Table: Januvia franchise (Merck & Co.) sales for diabetes by brand, ($thousand ), Table: Januvia (sitagliptin; Merck & Co.) sales for diabetes by country, ($thousand ), 11 Table: Janumet (sitagliptin+metformin; Merck & Co.) sales for diabetes by country, ($thousand ), Table: Juvisync (sitagliptin+simvastatin; Merck & Co.) sales for diabetes by country, ($thosuand ), Table: Galvus franchise (Novartis) sales for diabetes by brand, ($thousand ), Table: Galvus (vildagliptin; Novartis) sales for diabetes by country, ($thousand ), Table: Eucreas (vildagliptin+metformin; Novartis) sales for diabetes by country, ($thosuand ),
3 Table: Onglyza franchise (Bristol-Myers Squibb/AstraZeneca) sales for diabetes by brand, ($thousand ), Table: Onglyza (saxagliptin; Bristol-Myers Squibb/AstraZeneca) sales for diabetes by country, ($thosuand ), Table: Kombiglyze (saxagliptin+metformin; Bristol-Myers Squibb/AstraZeneca) sales for diabetes by country, ($thosuand ), Table: Nesina franchise (Takeda) sales for diabetes by brand, ($thosuand ), Table: Nesina (alogliptin; Takeda) sales for diabetes by country, ($thosuand ), Table: Alogliptin + metformin (alogliptin+metformin; Takeda) sales for diabetes by country, ($thosuand ), Table: Liovel (alogliptin+pioglitazone; Takeda) sales for diabetes by country, ($thosuand ), Table: Tradjenta franchise (Boehringer Ingelheim/Eli Lilly) sales for diabetes by brand, ($thosuand ), Table: Tradjenta (linagliptin; Boehringer Ingelheim/Eli Lilly) sales for diabetes by country, ($thosuand ), Table: Linagliptin + metformin (linagliptin + metformin; Boehringer Ingelheim/Eli Lilly) sales for diabetes by country, ($thosuand ), Table: Linagliptin + pioglitazone (linagliptin + pioglitazone; Boehringer Ingelheim/Eli Lilly) sales for diabetes by country, ($thosuand ), Table: Tenegliptin (Mitsubishi Tanabe) sales for diabetes by country, ($thosuand ), 11 Table: Byetta (exenatide twice-daily; Amylin) sales for diabetes by country, ($thousand ), Table: Victoza (liraglutide; Novo Nordisk) sales for diabetes by country, ($thousand ), Table: Bydureon (exenatide once-weekly; Amylin/Alkermes) sales for diabetes by country, ($thousand ), Table: Lyxumia (lixisenatide; Sanofi/Zealand Pharma) sales for diabetes by country, ($thousand ), Table: Syncria (albiglutide; GlaxoSmithKline) sales for diabetes by country, ($thousand ), Table: LY (dulaglutide; Eli Lilly) sales for diabetes by country, ($thosuand ), 11 Table: Actos franchise (Takeda) sales for diabetes by country, ($thousand ), Table: Dapagliflozin franchise (Bristol-Myers Squibb/AstraZeneca) sales for diabetes by country, ($thosuand ), Table: Canagliflozin franchise (Johnson & Johnson/Mitsubishi Tanabe) sales for diabetes by country, ($thousand ), Table: BI franchise (empagliflozin; Boehringer Ingelheim/Eli Lilly) sales for diabetes by country, ($thousand ), Table: ASP-1941 franchise (ipragliflozin; Astellas) sales for diabetes by country, ($thousand ), Table: Drug-treated patient proportion among diagnosed prevalent patients in the seven major markets, Table: Compliance rates for non-insulin use in the seven major markets, 11-
4 FIGURES Table: Survey respondents in the seven major markets, by country and physician type, 11 Figure: Patient-based forecast methodology for type 2 diabetes, 11 Figure: Non-insulin antidiabetic sales in the seven major markets by class, Figure: Non-insulin antidiabetic sales ($m) in the seven major markets by country, Figure: Non-insulin antidiabetic sales (patient treatment years) in the seven major markets by country, Figure: Key product n on-insulin antidiabetic sales ($m) in the US by class, Figure: Key product n on-insulin antidiabetic sales ($m) in Japan by class, Figure: Key product n on-insulin antidiabetic sales ($m) in France by class, Figure: Key product n on-insulin antidiabetic sales ($m) in Germany by class, Figure: Key product n on-insulin antidiabetic sales ($m) in Italy by class, Figure: Key product n on-insulin antidiabetic sales ($m) in Spain by class, Figure: Key product n on-insulin antidiabetic sales ($m) in the UK by class, Figure: DPP-IV inhibitor sales in the seven major markets, by product ($m), Figure: Januvia franchise (Merck & Co.) sales for diabetes by brand, ($m ), Figure: Januvia (sitagliptin; Merck & Co.) sales for diabetes by country, ($m ), Figure: Janumet (sitagliptin+metformin; Merck & Co.) sales for diabetes by country, ($m ), Figure: Juvisync (sitagliptin+simvastatin; Merck & Co.) sales for diabetes by country, ($m ), Figure: Galvus franchise (Novartis) sales for diabetes by brand, ($m ), Figure: Galvus (vildagliptin; Novartis) sales for diabetes by country, ($m ), Figure: Eucreas (vildagliptin+metformin; Novartis) sales for diabetes by country, ($m ), Figure: Onglyza franchise (Bristol-Myers Squibb/AstraZeneca) sales for diabetes by brand, ($m ), Figure: Onglyza (saxagliptin; Bristol-Myers Squibb/AstraZeneca) sales for diabetes by country, ($m ), Figure: Kombiglyze (saxagliptin+metformin; Bristol-Myers Squibb/AstraZeneca) sales for diabetes by country, ($m ), Figure: Nesina franchise (Takeda) sales for diabetes by brand, ($m ), Figure: Nesina (alogliptin; Takeda) sales for diabetes by country, ($m ), Figure: Alogliptin + metformin (alogliptin + metformin; Takeda) sales for diabetes by country, ($m ), Figure: Liovel (alogliptin+pioglitazone; Takeda) sales for diabetes by country, ($m ), 11 Figure: Tradjenta franchise (Boehringer Ingelheim/Eli Lilly) sales for diabetes by brand, ($m ), Figure: Tradjenta (linagliptin; Boehringer Ingelheim/Eli Lilly) sales for diabetes by country, ($m ), Figure: Linagliptin + metformin (linagliptin + metformin; Boehringer Ingelheim/Eli Lilly) sales for diabetes by country, ($m ),
5 Figure: Linagliptin + pioglitazone (linagliptin + pioglitazone; Boehringer Ingelheim/Eli Lilly) sales for diabetes by country, ($m ), Figure: Tenegliptin (Mitsubishi Tanabe) sales for diabetes by country, ($m ), Figure: GLP-1 agonist sales in the seven major markets, by product ($m), Figure: Byetta (exenatide twice-daily; Amylin) sales for diabetes by country, ($m ), 11 Figure: Victoza (liraglutide; Novo Nordisk) sales for diabetes by country, ($m ), Figure: Bydureon (exenatide once-weekly; Amylin/Alkermes) sales for diabetes by country, ($m ), Figure: Lyxumia (lixisenatide; Sanofi/Zealand Pharma) sales for diabetes by country, ($m ), Figure: Syncria (albiglutide; GlaxoSmithKline) sales for diabetes by country, ($m ), 11 Figure: LY (dulaglutide; Eli Lilly) sales for diabetes by country, ($m ), Figure: Sales of branded and generic pioglitazone (and combinations), seven major markets, ($m), Figure: Actos franchise (Takeda) sales for diabetes by country, ($m ), Figure: SGLT-2 inhibitor sales in the seven major markets, by product ($m), Figure: Dapagliflozin franchise (Bristol-Myers Squibb/AstraZeneca) sales for diabetes by country, ($m ), Figure: Canagliflozin franchise (Johnson & Johnson/Mitsubishi Tanabe) sales for diabetes by country, ($m ), Figure: BI franchise (empagliflozin; Boehringer Ingelheim/Eli Lilly) sales for diabetes by country, ($m ), Figure: ASP-1941 franchise (ipragliflozin; Astellas) sales for diabetes by country, ($m ),
TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 Table of Contents 2 Introduction 3 Key Marketed Products
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