Identifying Europe s information needs for effective drug policy Lisbon, EMCCDA
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1 Cannabis Market in Europe: A Growing Domestic Market (First Results) Jean-Michel Costes, Christian Ben Lakhdar OFDT 3 avenue du Stade de France Saint-Denis La Plaine cedex Tel : Fax : Identifying Europe s information needs for effective drug policy Lisbon, EMCCDA 7 May
2 Main goals to get a good overview of where cannabis is coming from in Europe, domestic production, the types of products available, the market shares of different products amongst users, etc. To collect and analyse ayse recent and reliable abe data on different cannabis products potency in order to get an overview of levels and trends in cannabis potency in Europe.
3 The Team Christian BEN LAKHDAR (OFDT) Laurence DUJOURDY (IPSL) David WEIBERGER (INHES) Fabrice BESACIER (IPSL) Nacer LALAM (INHES) Consultants: Les King (UK), Toine Spapens (NL)
4 First results Estimated volumes of cannabis used Map of the cannabis routes European cannabis markets: resin vs. herb Price elasticity of the demand for cannabis ce eastcty o t e de a d o ca ab s products
5 Estimated volume of cannabis used Figure 1. Estimation of cannabis used per country in Kilos (several years: between 2003 & 2007). Kg years: between 2003 & 2007) Spain France UK Germany Italy Czec ech Republic Poland Belgium Netherlands Austria Portugal Denmark Hungary Slovakia Ireland Greece Norway Finland Bulgaria Sweden Latvia Lithuania Estonia Cyprus Source: EMCDDA, INPES. Estimations: OFDT, INHES, IPSL.
6 Estimated volume of cannabis used Figure 1. Estimation of cannabis used per country in Kilos (several years: between 2003 & 2007). Kg years: between 2003 & 2007) Global volume : 1750 tons [1500; 1900] Spain France UK Germany Italy Czec ech Republic Poland Belgium Netherlands Austria Portugal Denmark Hungary Slovakia Ireland Greece Norway Finland Bulgaria Sweden Latvia Lithuania Estonia Cyprus Source: EMCDDA, INPES. Estimations: OFDT, INHES, IPSL.
7 Estimated volume of cannabis used these estimations of volumes lead to a commercial retail value of 9.6 billions of euros [8.5; 10.8]. For comparison, the European markets for alcohol and tobacco are respectively worth 92 billions of euros and 143 billions of euros (Euromonitor, 2007, 2008).
8 Indirect indicator: transit and final destination Map 1. Ratio between the annual mean seizures of cannabis ( ) and the estimations of annual volume of cannabis used by country (%).
9 Indirect indicator: front door, transit and final destination Graph 2. Ratio between annual mean of cannabis seizures ( ) and estimation % of cannabis used per country in % European mean: 26.15% Spain Gree ce Nether herlands Portugal Belgium Ireland Bulgaria UK France Sweden Norway Italy Denmark Finland Cyprus Lithuania Germ any Estonia Austria Slovakia Hungary Poland Latvia Czech Republic Source: UNODC, EMCDDA, INPES. Estimations: OFDT, INHES, IPSL.
10 Indirect indicator: front door, transit and final destination Graph 2. Ratio between annual mean of cannabis seizures ( ) and estimation % of cannabis used per country in % European mean: 26.15% Spain Gree ce Nether herlands Portugal Belgium Ireland Bulgaria UK France Sweden Norway Italy Denmark Finland Cyprus Lithuania Germ any Estonia Austria Slovakia Hungary Poland Latvia Czech Republic Source: UNODC, EMCDDA, INPES. Estimations: OFDT, INHES, IPSL.
11 Indirect indicator: front door, transit and final destination Graph 2. Ratio between annual mean of cannabis seizures ( ) and estimation % of cannabis used per country in % Front Door Final destination countries 100 Transit countries Spain Gree ce Nether herlands Portugal Belgium Ireland Bulgaria UK France Sweden Norway Italy Denmark Finland Cyprus Lithuania Germ any Estonia Austria Slovakia Hungary Poland Latvia Czech Republic Source: UNODC, EMCDDA, INPES. Estimations: OFDT, INHES, IPSL.
12 Extra European Cannabis Routes Netherlands Czech Rep Albania Morrocco
13 Cannabis market : resin vs. herb Ratio of Seizures of herbal cannabis and cannabis resin between 2001 and resin herb
14 Cannabis market : prices trend Table 1. Growth rate of deflated average prices of cannabis products (European sub-regions*) Herbal Cannabis Cannabis Resin Eastern Europe** -28,64% -19,37% Northern Europe 10,13% -39,57% Southern Europe -7,52% 20,73% Western Europe 15,22% 11,98% Average growth rate of the European regions -2,70% -6,56% * Based on the UNO composition of geographical sub-regions ** Czech Republic Excluded Source: EMCDDA
15 Cannabis market : prices trend Table 1. Growth rate of deflated average prices of cannabis products (European sub-regions*) Herbal Cannabis Cannabis Resin Eastern Europe** -28,64% -19,37% Northern Europe 10,13% -39,57% Southern Europe -7,52% 20,73% Western Europe 15,22% 11,98% Average growth rate of the European regions -2,70% -6,56% * Based on the UNO composition of geographical sub-regions ** Czech Republic Excluded Source: EMCDDA
16 Price elasticity of cannabis demand Resin vs Herb Price Parity Purchase Power(European standard) Cross-sectional analysis (European countries) Age and Sex of users (monthly users)
17 Price elasticity of demand for Resin
18 Price elasticity of demand for Herb
19 Price elasticity of demand for Herb
20 Conclusion On-going issues: European Domestic Production issue. Typology of growers And Potency of cannabis products.
21 OBSERVATOIRE FRANÇAIS DES DROGUES ET DES TOXICOMANIES (French monitoring Centre for Drug Addiction) 3, Avenue du Stade de France St Denis la Plaine cedex Tel : (1) Fax : (1) ofdt@ofdt.fr - Website : 21
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