The United Nations Approach to Population Projections
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1 Taking Charge of Uncertainty The United Nations Approach to Population Projections Hania Zlotnik
2 The UN Population Projections Periodicity: Revised every two years Coverage: Produced for 230 units Method: By components of change Age groups: Five years in length Step size: Five-year intervals Estimates: Projections: (2010 Revision)
3 Components of change Fertility: Future trend in total fertility Age distribution of fertility Mortality: Future trend in life expectancy Mortality rates by age and sex AIDS: Future incidence by age and sex Migration: Future net number of migrants Migrants by age and sex
4 PROJECTING THE FIRST COMPONENT OF CHANGE: FERTILITY
5 In projecting future fertility trends one can take advantage of two things: The availability of a complete set of past estimates of fertility change The empirical existence of a typical pattern of fertility change as described by the demographic transition
6 Fertility estimates from 1950 to Children per woman
7 Countries classified by fertility level High fertility 18% Intermediate fertility 40% Low fertility 42% Note: The boundaries shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.
8 Fertility trends from 1950 to Children per woman High Intermediate Low 4.5 World
9 Typical fertility trend from high to low Children per woman Phase I Phase II Phase III
10 PROJECTING FERTILITY FOR COUNTRIES IN PHASE II 2
11 Fertility decrements during Phase II Children per woman Total fertility
12 Modeled fertility decrements, Phase II Children per woman Total fertility
13 Fertility decrements are modeled using a double logistic function with five parameters and it represents the level at which fertility begins to decline.
14 Double logistic decrement function (D=1) u 1 u 2 u 3 u Total fertility (children per woman)
15 Fertility is projected by using the decrements yielded by the logistic model. Uncertainty is captured by a random distortion term
16 Examples of decrement paths India South Africa
17 Stalling fertility has been common in Africa Kenya Malawi
18 THE RESULTS OF USING THE PROBABILISTIC DECREMENT PATHS
19 India: Projection of fertility
20 India: Projected population
21 South Africa: Projection of fertility
22 South Africa: Projected population
23 Malawi: Projection of fertility
24 Malawi: Projected population
25 PROJECTING FERTILITY FOR COUNTRIES IN PHASE III
26 Projection for countries in Phase III
27 China: Projected fertility
28 China: Projected population
29 Italy: Projected fertility
30 Italy: Projected population
31 PROJECTING THE SECOND COMPONENT OF CHANGE: MORTALITY
32 Probabilistic projection of life expectancy
33 Probabilistic projection of life expectancy
34 Life expectancy trends from 1950 to 2015 Years Low fertility World Intermediate AIDS High fertility United Nations Population Division, 2011
35 Years 80 Life expectancy trends from 1950 to World 61 South Africa High fertility AIDS United Nations Population Division, 2011
36 South Africa: Estimated HIV incidence South Africa: Fitted incidence
37 South Africa: Projected life expectancy World 61 Sub-Saharan Africa South Africa
38 PROJECTING THE THIRD COMPONENT OF CHANGE: INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION
39 Projecting international migration The methodology to project international migration remains the least developed A major constraint is the lack of an adequate database on migration flows A second constraint is the volatility of migration flows
40 Projected net migration for selected countries Migrants (thousands) United States Italy South Africa
41 CONCLUSION: COPING WITH UNCERTAINTY
42 Advances made Probabilistic methods are clearly useful in preparing population projections but they demand the existence of a reliable set of past estimates and adequate models for future change The UN approach borrows strength from the wealth of data on fertility trends available
43 Challenges To improve the data on mortality trends and, especially, on mortality by age and sex For the majority of developing countries, reliable time series estimates of adult mortality are scarce Taking account of discontinuities, such as those generated by AIDS
44 Do probabilistic population projections aid in planning the future?
45 Doubts are in order People have difficulty understanding and using probabilistic concepts The implications of the measures of uncertainty yielded by probabilistic projections are not easy to grasp Probabilistic projections are not transparent regarding cause and effect
46 Time to thank:
47 The developers of the UN methodology University of Singapore: Leontine Alkema University of Washington: Adrian Raftery and Samuel Clark UN Population Division: Patrick Gerland, Francois Pelletier, Nan Li, Gerhard Heilig, Thomas Buettner
48 THE END!
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