The United Nations Approach to Population Projections

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1 Taking Charge of Uncertainty The United Nations Approach to Population Projections Hania Zlotnik

2 The UN Population Projections Periodicity: Revised every two years Coverage: Produced for 230 units Method: By components of change Age groups: Five years in length Step size: Five-year intervals Estimates: Projections: (2010 Revision)

3 Components of change Fertility: Future trend in total fertility Age distribution of fertility Mortality: Future trend in life expectancy Mortality rates by age and sex AIDS: Future incidence by age and sex Migration: Future net number of migrants Migrants by age and sex

4 PROJECTING THE FIRST COMPONENT OF CHANGE: FERTILITY

5 In projecting future fertility trends one can take advantage of two things: The availability of a complete set of past estimates of fertility change The empirical existence of a typical pattern of fertility change as described by the demographic transition

6 Fertility estimates from 1950 to Children per woman

7 Countries classified by fertility level High fertility 18% Intermediate fertility 40% Low fertility 42% Note: The boundaries shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.

8 Fertility trends from 1950 to Children per woman High Intermediate Low 4.5 World

9 Typical fertility trend from high to low Children per woman Phase I Phase II Phase III

10 PROJECTING FERTILITY FOR COUNTRIES IN PHASE II 2

11 Fertility decrements during Phase II Children per woman Total fertility

12 Modeled fertility decrements, Phase II Children per woman Total fertility

13 Fertility decrements are modeled using a double logistic function with five parameters and it represents the level at which fertility begins to decline.

14 Double logistic decrement function (D=1) u 1 u 2 u 3 u Total fertility (children per woman)

15 Fertility is projected by using the decrements yielded by the logistic model. Uncertainty is captured by a random distortion term

16 Examples of decrement paths India South Africa

17 Stalling fertility has been common in Africa Kenya Malawi

18 THE RESULTS OF USING THE PROBABILISTIC DECREMENT PATHS

19 India: Projection of fertility

20 India: Projected population

21 South Africa: Projection of fertility

22 South Africa: Projected population

23 Malawi: Projection of fertility

24 Malawi: Projected population

25 PROJECTING FERTILITY FOR COUNTRIES IN PHASE III

26 Projection for countries in Phase III

27 China: Projected fertility

28 China: Projected population

29 Italy: Projected fertility

30 Italy: Projected population

31 PROJECTING THE SECOND COMPONENT OF CHANGE: MORTALITY

32 Probabilistic projection of life expectancy

33 Probabilistic projection of life expectancy

34 Life expectancy trends from 1950 to 2015 Years Low fertility World Intermediate AIDS High fertility United Nations Population Division, 2011

35 Years 80 Life expectancy trends from 1950 to World 61 South Africa High fertility AIDS United Nations Population Division, 2011

36 South Africa: Estimated HIV incidence South Africa: Fitted incidence

37 South Africa: Projected life expectancy World 61 Sub-Saharan Africa South Africa

38 PROJECTING THE THIRD COMPONENT OF CHANGE: INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION

39 Projecting international migration The methodology to project international migration remains the least developed A major constraint is the lack of an adequate database on migration flows A second constraint is the volatility of migration flows

40 Projected net migration for selected countries Migrants (thousands) United States Italy South Africa

41 CONCLUSION: COPING WITH UNCERTAINTY

42 Advances made Probabilistic methods are clearly useful in preparing population projections but they demand the existence of a reliable set of past estimates and adequate models for future change The UN approach borrows strength from the wealth of data on fertility trends available

43 Challenges To improve the data on mortality trends and, especially, on mortality by age and sex For the majority of developing countries, reliable time series estimates of adult mortality are scarce Taking account of discontinuities, such as those generated by AIDS

44 Do probabilistic population projections aid in planning the future?

45 Doubts are in order People have difficulty understanding and using probabilistic concepts The implications of the measures of uncertainty yielded by probabilistic projections are not easy to grasp Probabilistic projections are not transparent regarding cause and effect

46 Time to thank:

47 The developers of the UN methodology University of Singapore: Leontine Alkema University of Washington: Adrian Raftery and Samuel Clark UN Population Division: Patrick Gerland, Francois Pelletier, Nan Li, Gerhard Heilig, Thomas Buettner

48 THE END!

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