VIETNAM CASSAVA AND STARCH ANNUAL REPORT, 2012 AND OUTLOOK FOR 2013

Transcription

1 VIETNAM CASSAVA AND STARCH ANNUAL REPORT, 2012 AND OUTLOOK FOR 2013 Analyst: Trần Ngọc Yến Vietnam Market Analysis and Forecast Joint Stock Company - AgroMonitor 5 th floor, No. 97 Hao Nam Street, O Cho Dua Ward, Dong Da District, Hanoi Tel: Fax: Website: Customer Service Department : Tel: agromonitor.hn@gmail.com

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3 PREFACE Pham Quang Dieu- Chief economist of AgroMonitor Mr. Pham Quang Dieu used to be the Director of Information Center (AgroInfo), Institute of Policy and Strategy for Agriculture and Rural Development. He and his colleagues in AgroInfo have separated from the Ministry and founded AgroMonitor, a leading company in the field of Vietnam agroproduct market analysis and forecast. Dear Customers, Vietnam is well-known for an agriculture which has a competitive advantage and an important position in the global agro-product market. To the domestic economy, agroforestry and fishery commodities play a strategic role as they not only bring in billions of U.S. dollars in terms of export value to the business community but also become the livelihood to millions rural households and the base for industrialization and modernization in Vietnam. Similarly, agricultural material sectors also become important when they provide input sources to help agro-forestry and fisheries grow fast, serving both internal and external demand. However, the trade of agro-forestry and fishery commodities as well as agricultural supplying products in Vietnam is facing challenges, resulting from a shock of the world market, especially a price fever in 2008, a fierce competition from rivals and more market barriers. In addition, the challenges are global issues affecting Vietnam s production such as climate change, sea level rise, salt water intrusion and intersectorial pressures in terms of increasing input cost, loose connection in value chain, poor infrastructure, insufficient import-export mechanism, as well as macroeconomy s instabilities like inflation, credit scarcity, access to foreign currency and exchange rate. Above all, the unpredictability of market outlook has become one of huge risks to short-term business decisions as well as challenges to form long-term business strategies of enterprises in the industry. In such a changeable context, AgroMonitor profoundly understands in-depth, periodical, updated and alert analysis and forecast which will help enterprises make more effective decisions to minimize risks and grasp coming opportunities. With a knowledgeable and expert staff, in-depth database along with a broad internal and external partnership, AgroMonitor believes that the publications; weekly news with updated market movement, monthly and annually in-depth forecast reports as well as special issues will be really useful, making contribution to the success of enterprises. Regards, Phạm Quang Diệu Chief Economist of AgroMonitor 3

4 TABLE OF CONTENTS PREFACE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY LIST OF FIGURES IN REPORT LIST OF TABLES IN REPORT LIST OF APPENDICES A. WORLD MARKET I. PRODUCTION 1. Cassava output by region 2. Cassava area and output of some major countries 2.1. Thailand 2.2. Brazil 2.3. Indonesia 2.4. Cambodia II. TRADE 1. Cassava chips (Tapioca chips) 2. Starch 3. Cassava residues III. PRICES 1. Local tapioca prices of Thailand 2. Export prices of tapioca chips and starch B. VIETNAM MARKET I. PRODUCTION 1. Area and output 2. Area and output by locality 4

5 II. TRADE 1. General cassava exports 2. Export structure 3. Exports of cassava by type 3.1. Exports of cassava chips Exports by month Exports by market 3.2. Exports of starch Exports by month Exports by market 4. Imports of cassava and starch of Vietnam 4.1. General imports 4.2. Imports by market III. PRICES 1. Domestic cassava chips prices 2. Export prices of cassava and starch of Vietnam IV. SOME FACTORS AFFECTING CASSAVA PRICES AND TRADE OF VIETNAM AND THE WORLD 1. High freight rates of Vietnam reduce the competitiveness of Vietnamese cassava relative to Thai cassava 2. Lending interest rates in 2012 tend to decrease, helping enterprises to lower financial expenses 3. The import demand for cassava chips and starch of the world market soared in Tapioca mortgage scheme of Thailand and negotiations on exporting tapioca to China 5. Vietnam dong depreciated sharply against Chinese Renminbi, bringing in many advantages for enterprises exporting cassava through cross-border trade 5

6 6. Animal husbandry and aquaculture encountered difficulties in 2012, resulting in lower cassava usage in feed production than expected 7. E5 gasoline is unmarketable, so a series of ethanol plants have to reduce capacity, suspend production or come into operation later than expected V. ENTERPRISES MOVEMENT OF CASSAVA SECTOR 1. Cassava chips 2. Starch C. MARKET OUTLOOK I. Plans of agriculture sector and some other relevant sectors 1. Plan of agriculture sector for cassava 2. Plan for husbandry, fishery and feed manufacturing industries II. Outlook on price and trade 1. World outlook 2. Vietnam outlook APPENDICES 6

7 LIST OF FIGURES IN REPORT Figure 1: Global cassava output, (Million tons) Figure 2: Top 10 cassava-producing countries in the world, (Million tons) Figure 3: Cassava output by region, (Million tons) Figure 4: Tapioca area and output of Thailand, (Thousand ha, million tons) Figure 5: Cassava area and output of Brazil, (Million ha, million tons) Figure 6: Cassava area and output of Indonesia, (Million ha, million tons) Figure 7: Cassava planted area and output of Cambodia, (Thousand ha, thousand tons) Figure 8: Global cassava trade, (Million tons) Figure 9: Exports of tapioca chips of Thailand by month, (Thousand tons) Figure 10: Exports of cassava chips of Indonesia, (Tons) Figure 11: Starch exports of Thailand by month, (Thousand tons) Figure 12: Proportion of Thai starch exported by market for the first 10 months of 2012 (%) Figure 13: Local prices of fresh cassava root (starch content of 30%) and tapioca chips of Thailand by month, (US$/ton) Figure 14: Correlation in export prices of Thai tapioca chips and starch by month, (US$/ton) Figure 15: Correlation in prices of corn and tapioca in the world market, (US$/ton) Figure 16: Area and output of cassava nationwide, (Thousand ha, thousand tons) 7

8 Figure 17: Cassava yield of Vietnam, (Tons/ha) Figure 18: Exports of cassava and cassava products of Vietnam, (Thousand tons, Million US$) Figure 19: Growth in volume and value of cassava and cassava product exports of Vietnam by month in 2012 (compared to 2011, %) Figure 20: Proportion of cassava chips and starch exported of Vietnam, (%) Figure 21: Exports of cassava chips/fresh cassava roots (HS code ) of Vietnam by month, (Thousand tons, Million US$) Figure 22: Growth in volume and value of cassava exported of Vietnam by month in 2012 (compared to 2011, %) Figure 23: Exports of starch of Vietnam by month, January 2010-October 2012 (Million US$) Figure 24: Increase/decrease in starch export volume and value by month in 2012 and compared to 2011 (%) Figure 25: Proportion of starch of Vietnam exported to top 10 markets for the first 10 months of 2012 (%) Figure 26: Proportion of starch of Vietnam exported to top 10 markets for the first 10 months of 2011 (%) Figure 27: Imports of cassava chips and starch, (Million US$) Figure 28: Value growth of cassava chips/fresh cassava roots imported of Vietnam by month in 2012 (compared to the same period of 2011, %) Figure 29: Procurement prices of cassava chips of enterprises in Dong Nai and Binh Duong by week, (VND/kg) Figure 30: Correlation in export prices of cassava chips and starch of Vietnam, (US$/ton) Figure 31: Cassava chip imports of China, (Thousand tons) Figure 32: China s imports of Vietnamese and Thai cassava chips, (Thousand tons) 8

9 Figure 33: Cassava chip imports of South Korea, (Thousand tons, million US$) Figure 34: South Korea s cassava chip imports from Thailand and Vietnam, (Thousand tons) Figure 35: Cassava starch imports of Indonesia, (Thousand tons) Figure 36: Average cassava starch imports of Malaysia from Thailand and Vietnam, (Thousand MYR) Figure 37: Cassava starch imports of South Korea (Thousand ton, thousand US$) Figure 38: Developments of CNY/VND exchange rate by month, (VND/CNY) Figure 39: Developments of USD/VND exchange rate by month, (VND/USD) Figure 40: Output of industrial feed converted, (Thousand tons) Figure 41: Outlook on global grain and oilseed prices, (US$/ton) 9

10 LIST OF TABLES IN REPORT Table 1: Exports of cassava chips of some countries in the world, (Thousand tons) Table 2: Exports of starch of some countries in the world, (Thousand tons) Table 3: Exports of Thai starch by market for the first 10 months of 2012 (Thousand tons, compared to the same period of 2011) Table 4: Exports of cassava residue of Thailand by market for the first 10 months of 2012 (Thousand tons, compared to the same period last year) Table 5: Quotes and actual export prices of Thai tapioca chips in 2012 (US$/ton, FOB) Table 6: Quotes and actual export prices of Thai starch in 2012 (US$/ton, FOB) Table 7: Cassava-planted area of Vietnam in 2012 based on a forecast from the MARD (Thousand ha) Table 8: Top 10 provinces in cassava-planted area in 2011 (compared to 2010, thousand ha) Table 9: Top 10 provinces in high cassava output in 2011 (compared to 2010, thousand tons) Table 10: Top 10 provinces in cassava-planted area in 2012 (compared to 2011, thousand ha) Table 11: Exports of cassava and cassava products of Vietnam by type, (Thousand tons) Table 12: Exports of cassava chips of Vietnam by market, (Million US$) Table 13: Exports of starch of Vietnam to top 10 markets for the first 10 months of 2012 (compared to the same period of 2011, million US$) Table 14: Imports of cassava chips/fresh cassava roots of Vietnam by market in 2012 (compared to 2011, million US$) 10

11 Table 15: Cassava chip export prices of Vietnam to China through some major ports by month in 2012 (CFR, US$/ton) Table 16: Starch export prices of Vietnam to some major markets through some ports by month in 2012 (CFR, US$/ton) Table 17: Average starch export prices to China through some border gates for the first 10 months of 2012 (DAF, Million VND/ton) Table 18: Top 20 cassava chip exporting enterprises in quarter I, 2012 Table 19: Refer some major cassava chip exporting enterprises in quarter II, 2012 Table 20: Refer some major cassava chip exporting enterprises in quarter III, 2012 Table 21: Refer some major cassava chip exporting enterprises for the first 10 months of 2012 Table 22: Refer some major cassava chip exporting enterprises in quarter II, 2012 Table 23: Refer some major starch exporting enterprises in quarter III, 2012 Table 24: Plan of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development on cassava area and output in 2013 Table 25: Plan on exports of cassava and cassava products in 2013 (Thousand tons, US$ million) Table 26: Plan for husbandry and aquaculture in 2013 Table 27: Forecast on Vietnam economic growth in 2012 and 2013 from major international economic organizations Table 28: Cassava supply demand balance, (tons) Table 29: List of provinces near Vietnam-Cambodia border 11

12 LIST OF APPENDICES Appendix 1: World cassava output, (Million tons) Appendix 2: Top 10 cassava-producing countries in the world, (Million tons) Appendix 3: Cassava output by continent, (Million tons) Appendix 4: Top 10 cassava-producing countries in Africa, (Thousand tons) Appendix 5: Area, yield and output of tapioca of Thailand, Appendix 6: Area, yield and output of tapioca of Brazil, Appendix 7: Area and output of cassava of Indonesia, Appendix 8: Area and output of cassava of Cambodia, Appendix 9: Exports of tapioca chips and starch of Thailand by month, (Thousand tons) Appendix 10: Exports of cassava chips of Indonesia, (Tons) Appendix 11: Area, yield and output of Vietnam, (Thousand ha, thousand tons) Appendix 12: Imports of cassava chips of China, (Thousand tons) Appendix 13: Imports of cassava chips and starch of South Korea, (Thousand tons) Appendix 14: Starch imports of Indonesia, (Thousand tons) Appendix 15: Starch imports of Malaysia from Thailand and Vietnam, (Thousand RMB) 12

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