The Growing Importance of Social Skills in the Labor Market
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1 The Growing Importance of Social Skills in the Labor Market David Deming Harvard University and NBER December 2015
2 SBTC and Job Polarization Source: Acemoglu and Autor (2011)
3 Slowdown in demand for cognitive skills among college grads Source: Beaudry, Green and Sand (2014)
4 Lower return to cognitive skills in later NLSY cohort Source: Castex and Dechter (2014)
5 The Disappearance of Routine Jobs Higher Up the Skill Distribution Smoothed Changes in Employment for Routine Occupations 100 x Change in Employment Share Occupation's Percentile in 1980 Education Distribution Occupations with above median routine task intensity based on 1998 O*NET Sources: Census, ACS
6 Growing Importance of Social Skills Computers are replacing cognitive tasks of rapidly increasing cognitive complexity. Is there anything that still cannot be automated? Social interaction Skill in social settings is based on tacit knowledge and evolved over thousand of years - we don't know the rules (Autor 2015) Theory of Mind and the Turing test
7 Labor Market Trends Three key facts about the U.S. labor market: 1. Employment growth in social skill-intensive occupations throughout the wage distribution 2. Growing complementarity between cognitive skills and social skills (Weinberger 2014) 3. Inverse relationship between social skill intensity and routineness of an occupation
8 Worker Tasks in the U.S. Economy, Update of Autor, Levy, and Murnane (2003) Figure 1 Mean Task Input in Percentiles of 1980 Distribution Nonroutine Analytical (Math) Service Social Skills Routine Occupational Task Intensity based on 1998 O*NET Sources: Census, ACS
9 Smoothed Changes in Employment by Occupational Task Intensity x Change in Employment Share Occupation's Percentile in 1980 Wage Distribution Low Math, Low Social Low Math, High Social High Math, Low Social High Math, High Social Occupational Task Intensity based on 1998 O*NET Sources: 1980 Census, ACS
10 Smoothed Changes in Median Wages by Occupational Task Intensity Change in Median Real Log Hourly Wage Occupation's Percentile in 1980 Wage Distribution Low Math, Low Social Low Math, High Social High Math, Low Social High Math, High Social Occupational Task Intensity based on 1998 O*NET Sources: 1980 Census, ACS
11 Since Smoothed Changes in Employment by Occupational Task Intensity x Change in Employment Share Occupation's Percentile in 1980 Wage Distribution Low Math, Low Social Low Math, High Social High Math, Low Social High Math, High Social Occupational Task Intensity based on 1998 O*NET Sources: 1980 & 2000 Census, ACS
12 Returns to Skills in the NLSY Standard wage regressions for prime-age adults AFQT, social skills index Test and nd support for three main predictions: 1. Positive return to social skills - controls for cog. and non-cog. skill, education/occ/industry 2. Skill complementarity 3. Increasing returns in non-routine, social skill-intensive occupations 3.1 Holds within-worker (job transitions)
13 Three implications 1. ICT and shifting of the organization of work - Taylorist to exible team structures 2. Social skills and gender gaps in labor market outcomes 2.1 Women consistently score higher on test of emotional and social intelligence 3. Early childhood interventions and non-cognitive skills
14 Worker Tasks in the U.S. Economy, Males - Update of ALM (2003), Figure Mean Task Input in Percentiles of 1980 Distribution Nonroutine Analytical (Math) Social Skills Routine Occupational Task Intensity based on 1998 O*NET Sources: Census, ACS
15 Worker Tasks in the U.S. Economy, Females - Update of ALM (2003), Figure 1 Mean Task Input in Percentiles of 1980 Distribution Nonroutine Analytical (Math) Social Skills Routine Occupational Task Intensity based on 1998 O*NET Sources: Census, ACS
16 Change in Female Employment Share by Social Skill Task Intensity Change in Female Employment Share Social Skills Percentile Social Skills Task Intensity based on 1998 O*NET Sources: 1980 Census, ACS
17 Measuring social skills Are social skills conceptually distinct? Can they be measured? Social intelligence tests formally developed and validated - correlation with IQ about 0.3 (e.g. Salovey and Mayer 1990, Mayer et al 2008) Reading the Mind in the Eyes test predicts team performance even after controlling for team IQ (Woolley at al 2010)
18
19 Perry Preschool (Heckman et al 2013)
20 Thanks! This is work in progress, and I appreciate your thoughts, suggestions and criticisms. david_deming@gse.harvard.edu
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