CUES TO LONG TERM VIOLENCE PREDICTION 1

Transcription

1 CUES TO LONG TERM VIOLENCE PREDICTION 1 Cues to Long Term Violence Prediction Michael Mancino Henley Putnam University Workplace Violence, Workplace Security MGT375 J. Smith July 12, 2014

2 CUES TO LONG TERM VIOLENCE PREDICTION 2 Cues to Long Term Violence Prediction Workplace violence is often considered by the uninformed to be a random act, thus nigh unpredictable. The truth of the matter is that security professionals and human resources personnel have many tools at their disposal when screening employees whom they believe may pose a risk of acting out in a violent manner. Assessment tools vary widely in their approach and structure. Some of these include the Historical/Clinical/Risk management (HCR 20), the Violence Risk Assessment Guide (VRAG) and the Spousal Assault Risk Assessment Guide (SARA) to name a few. What all of these tools have in common, though, is that they attempt to predict a behavior that is yet to happen based on behavior that can be observed in the present and past. If prevention is the goal then identifying long term behaviors which can aid in prediction should be the method. A common maxim that can be applied to almost any type of behavioral prediction is the best predictor of the future...is the past"is an excellent place to start. Though this statement is broad and very general, there are several key factors which typically remain constant enough to aid in violence predictions. There are generally six circumstances in which past behavior are an effective marker for future events: 1. High frequency, habitual behaviors are more predictive than infrequent behaviors 2. Prediction works best over short periods 3. The anticipated situation should be essentially the same as the past situation which initiated the behavior 4. The behavior must not have been extinguished by corrective or negative feedback 5. The person must remain essentially unchanged

3 CUES TO LONG TERM VIOLENCE PREDICTION 3 6. The person must be fairly consistent in their behaviors (Franklin, 2013) Though this may seem to contradict the idea of long term prediction, repeated actions and habits which clue in to possible violence over the long term are still an effective diagnostic tool. In order to predict violence it is important to also understand violence. Simply put, violence is a means to establish or re establish a perception of control over an object or person it is directed against (Cawood & Corcoran, 2009). During analysis it is important to answer three questions: How does the person perceive that they have lost or are losing control? What has he done in the past to obtain a perception of control? What might he be willing to do now? (Cawood & Corcoran, 2009). Common risk factors which have been identified include substance abuse, obsessive behavior, fixation with weapons and their use, depression, anxiety and other mental disorders, changes in circumstances which are generally perceived by the person affected to be negative (Buckman & Dubin, 1996). These are not all of the potential indicators, however these, and others, can be used to predict probable violent reactions in the long term. As noted above, high frequency/habitual behavior and consistency are two of the main predictors of future behavior. To illustrate this, the example from Violence Assessment and Intervention (Cawood & Corcoran, 2009, Appendix 4.2) shows how one s past behavior could be used to bring attention to potential for violence. In the example, Daniel perceives that his wife is having an affair of some kind with a coworker. Other workers have expressed concern over an escalation in his behavior over the short term. Some of Daniel s short term changes include

4 CUES TO LONG TERM VIOLENCE PREDICTION 4 increased agitation, talking to himself in a way which indicates planning of violence and his perception that he is the brunt of some type of joke. Short term escalations like this are certainly concerning, but even more so when you consider his past. Looking into Daniel s prior history one would identify that he is considered to be a complainer and has had disciplinary issues within the company. Outside of his professional life Daniel has experienced certain challenges such as disputes with neighbors and is considered to have a fixation on firearms. Ownership of firearms is not necessarily a bad thing in and of itself but in Daniel s case he s remarked that shooting is a form of stress relief and that it makes him feel as if he has regained a sense of control. As noted by Corcoran, violence is about reaffirming control. In cases such as Daniel s many singular elements, which may indicate a low risk, must be considered aggregately. A history of difficulties or behaviors should be analyzed to determine the likelihood that one will act out in a certain way if they were to encounter a situation which could trigger a violent response. Early identification of individuals exhibiting such criteria may prompt practitioners to intercede early in order to preempt an incident. An organization may decide that by helping them with their difficulties and behaviors prior to an escalation they may be able to avoid potentially violent responses.

5 CUES TO LONG TERM VIOLENCE PREDICTION 5 References Buckman, J. C., & Dubin, L. (1996). WORKPLACE VIOLENCEPractical Ways to Prevent IncidentsNational Productivity Review. Retrieved from Cawood, J. S., & Corcoran, M. H. (2009). Violence Assessment and Intervention: The Practitioner s Handbook (2nd ed.). Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press. Franklin, K. (2013). The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior Does the popular maxim hold water? Retrieved from best predictor future behavio r is past behavior 0