Auditoría de modelos numéricos para macizos rocosos
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1 Auditoría de modelos numéricos para macizos rocosos Dr. Alejo O. Sfriso Universidad de Buenos Aires materias.fi.uba.ar/6408 SRK Consulting (Argentina) latam.srk.com AOSA Propósito de las auditorías técnicas Evaluar la lógica del trabajo en función de su objetivo Establecer si los mecanismos, variables y parámetros relevantes han sido considerados Mostrar que el análisis de respaldo es apropiado dentro de los límites del conocimiento disponible Considerar si las conclusiones están justificadas en términos de los objetivos del proyecto Proporcionar rastreabilidad de la información, análisis y decisiones adoptadas 2 La auditoría debe ser independiente, sin limitaciones técnicas ni constractuales, y agregar valor al proyecto 1
2 Los ocho métodos de diseño en ingeniería de rocas Site Investigation Use of pre-existing standard methods Precedent type analyses and modifications Analytical methods, stress-based Rock mass classification, RMR, Q, GSI Objective Method A Method B Method C Method D Basic numerical methods, FEM, BEM, DEM, hybrid Database expert systems, & other systems approaches Extended numerical methods, fully-coupled models Integrated systems approaches, internet-based Level 1 1:1 mapping Level 2 Not 1:1 mapping Design based on forward analysis Design based on back analysis 3 Construction 4 Los dos niveles de auditoría técnica 'Soft' Audit Obtains the basic information for establishing the essence of the problem Ability to present what is being done 'Hard Audit' Obtains the detailed information on all the procedures being used Ability to state the details of what is being done Audit Evaluation Establishes whether the modelling is adequate to meet the objectives Ability to state whether the modelling is adequate for the purpose 2
3 5 1. THE MODELLING OBJECTIVE The purpose of the modelling? 2. CONCEPTUALIZATION OF THE PROCESSES BEING MODELLED The sub-system(s) being isolated for study. The physical processes involved. 3. SPECIFICATION OF THE MODELLING CONTENT What are the physical variables, connecting relations, parameters, boundary conditions, initial conditions, etc. 4. MODELLING SOLUTION REQUIREMENTS What type of model output is required, given the stated modelling purpose? 5. MODELLING SOLUTION TECHNIQUE How is the required model output to be obtained? 6. NUMERICAL CODE UTILIZED Which numerical code is to be used? How do we know that the code is operating correctly? 7. SUPPORTING MODEL DATA & DATA INPUT METHOD What are the necessary supporting data? How are they to be obtained? How are they to be input? 8. MODEL SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS How does the model output depend on the model input in terms of whether a sensitivity analysis is required? 9. PRESENTATION OF MODELLING RESULTS Is it possible to demonstrate that the numerical code is operating correctly? Are the modelling results clearly presented? 10. SOURCES OF ERRORS What are the main sources of errors? 11. MODELLING ADEQUACY Does the modelling seem adequate for the purpose? Are there any problem areas? Is any corrective action required? 6 Se ha establecido con claridad el propósito del modelo? Cómo se sabrá cuando la modelación esté completa? Qué sistemas de macizo rocoso fueron considerados? Qué procesos físicos principales fueron considerados? Cuál es la variable independiente principal? Cómo se perturba el sistema para activar mecanismos? Lista de las variables físicas Lista de los acoplamientos termo-hidro-mecánicos El modelo es 1D, 2D, 3D o alguna combinación? Se modela un continuo o un discontino? Especificación de las condiciones de borde 3
4 7 Especificación de las condiciones iniciales Cómo se establece la condición final? Cuál es la salida requerida del modelo? Cumplen los resultados con el objetivo del modelo? Cómo se obtiene el resultado? Un código, una corrida? O un conjunto de experimentos numéricos? Hay controles de calidad? Control de datos de entrada, validación con soluciones conocidas, corridas duplicadas? Qué código numérico se emplea? Porqué se emplea ese código? Dónde se originó el código? 8 Cómo se validó el código? Lista de tipo y justificación de condiciones de borde Lista de datos de entrada incluyendo fuente y justificación Hubo que ajustar datos antes de su entrada al código? Cómo dependen los resultados de los valores de los parámetros de entrada? Se ha realizado un análisis de sensibilidad? Que tipo? Cómo resume resultados del análisis de sensibilidad? Se puede demostrar que el programa funciona bien? Se puede demostrar que los datos son hipótesis razonables para un macizo rocoso? 4
5 9 Cómo se presentan los resultados del modelo? Se ajusta la presentación de resultados con el objetivo? Ha corregido algún error hasta ahora? Lista de los errores potencialmente significativos Puede alguno de esos errores invalidar el resultado, concepto y conclusiones? Las preguntas anteriores indican que en principio el modelo es adecuado para su propósito? Si no, liste las áreas problemáticas Qué acción correctiva se requiere? Debe repetirse esta auditoría luego de correcciones? 5
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