Identifying Causes for the Decline in International Arrivals to China by Investigating Inbound Travel Motives

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1 Identifying Causes for the Decline in International Arrivals to China by Investigating Inbound Travel Motives Guang-hui Qiao, Yong-hai Li, Bruce Prideaux, Man Qiao Abstract Chinese President Deng Xiaoping s 97 reforms opened China to inbound tourism. Growth peaked in and in following years has shown a downward trajectory. The objective of this paper is to develop a detailed understanding of aspects of China s inbound market by examining behavioral factors including satisfaction with past visit/s, likelihood to revisit, recommendations, image and preferences for overseas destinations based on destination attributes. Data was collected from past and potential future Australian outbound tourists to identify preferences, beliefs, constraints, information sources and past experience with a link to travel intentions regarding China. Past experience was found to have a positive influence on intention of visit. Five constraint factors that influence intention to travel were identified: interpersonal constraints; intrapersonal constraints, cost constraints, structural constraint, and safety constraint. The satisfaction level of tourists after was lower than pre. The paper discusses the practical implications of the findings are discussed. Keywords Chinese inbound tourism; segments, motives; constraints; satisfaction INTRODUCTION The economic reforms introduced by Chinese President Deng Xiaoping in 97 included opening China to inbound tourism. Growth was rapid with inbound numbers growing from. million in 97 to million in. However, in inbound visitor numbers began to fall and by had declined to. million. Over the same period the number of Chinese outbound tourists grew rapidly from. million in 99 to million in creating a significant tourism deficit of. million less arrivals than departures in. Despite concern being expressed by the China National Travel Administration (CNTA), the reason for the fall in inbound visitors is not clear. While there has been considerable research into China s growing outbound market there has been only a handful of studies on inbound tourism, most of which presented very optimistic views for the future (e.g. Wang & Yang, ; Witt& Turner, ). Given the recent fall in inbound tourism it is apparent that these optimistic views were not justified and more attention needs to be focused both on promoting China s inbound markets and at the same time developing a more detailed qiaoguanghuileo@outlook.com Guang-hui Qiao: Associate Professor, Henan University of Technology, Zhengzhou,, China Yong-hai Li: Associate Professor, Henan University of Technology, yonghai.li@.com Bruce Prideaux: Professor, Central Queensland University, b.prideaux@cqu.edu.au Man Qiao: PhD student, Paichai University, qiaoman99@.com

2 understanding of the factors that attract, or in some cases fail to attract, international visitors. The objective of this paper is to contribute to a more detailed understanding of aspects of China s inbound market by examining a range of behavioral factors including satisfaction with past visit/s to China, likelihood to revisit, recommendations to others, image and preferences for overseas destinations based on destination attributes. For the purposes of this research Australia was selected as a study site on the grounds that China has been a popular destination for Australian tourists, however in recent years the number of Australian visitors has fallen from. million in to.9 million by. In China was the th most popular destination for Australian outbound tourists falling to th by. LITERATURE REVIEW AND HYPOTHESES The following discussion first examines the effect of past behavior on satisfaction, attitudes toward revisiting and recommendations to others. This is followed by a review of the literature that comments on the relationship between destination attributes and the salient beliefs of target markets. The discussion than briefly considers issues related to travel constrains before concluding with a review of the role of information sources in decision making. A number of researchers (Sutton, 99; Van den Putte, 99, Nunkoo & Ramkissoon ) have stated that theories of human behavior may be useful for predicting an individual s behavioral intentions and actual future actions based on past relevant behavior. The theory of reasoned action (TRA) (Fishbein & Ajzen, 97) for example provides a framework for understanding and predicting social behavior. The TRA model argues that a person s intention to perform a behavior is a strong predictor of performance. Ajzen (9, 99) extended the TRA model by adding perceived behavioral control (PBC) to propose the theory of planned behavior (TPB). From a tourism perspective, a number of studies have supported the view that past travel positively influences visitors revisit intentions (Huang & Hsu, 9). Sonmez & Graefe (99) for example found that past travel experiences to specific destinations increased the likelihood of return travel. Although the relationship between tourist satisfaction (Oliver, 99; Spreng, Mankenzie & Olshavsky, 99; Young, Jen, Byung, ; Lawrence et al, 7) and revisit intentions has been frequently discussed in the literature, less attention has been given to the relationship between tourist satisfaction and tourist attitudes. A number of studies have suggested that satisfied visitors tend to recommend a destination to other people (e.g., Kozak and Rimmington, ; Yoon and Uysal, ), which may mean that satisfied visitors hold positive attitudes towards a particular destination. One aspect of satisfaction and recommendation that has received little attention is the impact of differences in satisfaction between recent visitors and those who visited sometime in the past. To test the relationship between past experience, satisfaction and intention to visit, the following hypotheses were developed:

3 H: For visitors, past experience has a positive influence on intention to visit H: For visitors, there is no difference in satisfaction and recommendation between intending visitors and non-intending visitors in the next years H: Different group of tourists have different attitudes towards China s image. H: The satisfaction level of recent tourists was greater better than tourists who visited China in the past Destination attributes are an important factor in the selection process undertaken by tourists when evaluating competing destinations. Because of the intangible nature of tourists evaluation of potential destinations, consumers generally use a multiattribute assessment of possible destinations. This may include attributes such as shopping, heritage, landscape, activities, safety issues, reputation and cost (Chi & Qu, ). Any given trip undertaken by a tourist includes a large number of components supplied by a range of organizations on the journey to and from the destination and within the destination. Collectively, these components contribute to destination attractiveness. Coltman (99) described destinations as an area with different natural attributes, features, or attractions that appeal to non-local visitors that is, tourists or excursionists. Collectively, the delivery of these elements of a destination affects how a tourist experiences a destination, their intention to return and how they will recommend the destination to others. From a destination perspective, understanding how tourists experience the range of experiences and services encountered during travel is important for understanding how attitudes towards the destination are formed and change over time (Mingming, Xin & Ipkin, ). In relation to an individual s attitude towards an object, Fishbein & Ajzen (97) describe attitude as an individual s positive or negative feelings (evaluation) about the target object. Translated into travel behaviors, consumer evaluation of a destination will affect intentions to visit the destination. Evaluation will include the importance of specific destination attributes which in turn may affect intended behavior (Mark et al, ). Attitude is influenced by the evaluation of key destination features (expectancy-value dimensions) and will, in turn, influence intention to engage in such behavior. In terms of key destination attributes that affect Australian outbound tourists. Kim () found that the five most important destination attributes were safety, beautiful scenery, well equipped tourism facilities, different cultural/historical resources and good weather. The current research seeks to understand how the attitudes of Australian tourist towards what they consider to be a desirable suite of destination attributes may shape the beliefs they hold towards China. Based on the literature, the following hypotheses are proposed: H: Different segments of tourists have different perceptions of the importance of overseas destination attributes. H: Different segments of tourists have different beliefs about China s attributes. H7: Beliefs about China s attributes have a positive influence to intention to visit.

4 Perceptions of travel constraints, or barriers, is an important consideration in why individual s chose, or do not chose, a specific destination. Theoretical frameworks to explain leisure barriers began to emerge in the 9s (Crawford, Jackson & Godbery, 99; Jie & Deborah, ). In general, leisure barriers may be categorized into three elements: intrapersonal, interpersonal, and structural constraints (Mark et al., ). Intrapersonal constraints are associated with an individual s psychological outlook and include their personal interests while interpersonal constraints relate to an individual s interaction with others. Structural constraints are classed as external factors that affects an individual s ability to achieve their behavioral intentions such as a visit to a particular country. Analysis of intrapersonal, interpersonal, and structural constraints provides a useful framework that has been adopted by a large number of researchers (Loucks Atkinson & Mannell, 7; Nyaupane, Morais, & Graefe, ; Park, ). Together, these dimensions influence decision making in a sequential order commencing at the intrapersonal level followed by the interpersonal level and concluding with the structural level. Activity research has centered on identifying the constraints associated with commencing, maintaining, and increasing involvement in particular pursuits (Backman, 99) as well as reasons for dropping out of certain activities (Boothby, Tungatt & Townsend, 9). Therefore, it is hypothesized that: H: Different tourist segments have different constraints on intention to visit. H9: Constraints negatively influence intention to visit. The more constraints a person feels, the less likely the person is likely to travel. Research has determined that various forms of information play a role in forming an attitude to destination image (Baloglu & Mc Cleary, 999a, 999b). Potential tourists have a myriad of information sources available when investigating where to travel. Sources of information are different and likely to comprise both organic (self-experience or non-commercial sources) and induced (advertiser message derived) components (Yang & Wu, ). Past research by Beverley & Grace (9) found that information sources such as television programs, friends, magazines, travel books and personal experience as being highly ranked by tourists. In this study the TPB model is extended to incorporate the assertion that information sources will influence the beliefs formed about China. The following hypotheses were developed: H: Not all tourist segments use the same information sources. H: Information sources impact on the intention of visit vary between tourist segments. METHODOLOGY A cross-sectional sample survey was used to test Australian residents overseas preferences and beliefs in relation to Mainland China and expressed as constraints, past experience, satisfaction level, perceived image of Mainland China and intention to visit. Survey items were based on past research including the measurement of destination attributes (Ipkin, ), beliefs about target destination (Ignatius, et al.,

5 ), constraints and travel intention (Sparks & Pan, 9; Abascal, Fluker & Jiang, ) and past experience and intention of visit (Bamberg, Ajzen & Schmidt, ). The survey had three sections with Section requesting respondents to provide a range of demographic data. Section included three subsections and was aimed at respondents who had not previously visited mainland China. Section (i) contained a series of questions about attributes respondents looked for in overseas destinations. Survey items were drawn from previous research including Echtner & Ritchie (99), Asuncion & Josefa () and Baloglu & Brinberg (997). Respondents were asked to express their views on the importance of destination attributes on the five-point Likert scale varying from not at all important () to very important (). Section (ii) asked respondents if they thought China had similar attributes to those they desired when travelling to a new destination. Section (iii) asked respondents to respond to a series of items that represented constraints they believed may affect decisions to visit China. Part of the survey was designed to collect data from respondents who had previously travelled to mainland China. Survey items included number of previous visits and satisfaction levels. Satisfaction items were drawn from previous research (Oliver, 99; Qiao, Chen, Guan & Kim, ). Eleven satisfaction attributes were identified and included in the questionnaire. Respondents were requested to indicate their agreement on the satisfaction level attributes on a five-point Likert scale varying from very unsatisfied () to highly satisfied (). Respondents were also asked to indicate their overall satisfaction level on a scale from not satisfactory () to highly satisfactory (). Finally, respondents were also asked to indicate the likelihood that they would recommend mainland China as a destination to other people. A self-administered questionnaire was distributed at sites in Brisbane, Cairns, and Townsville between July and September. A total of surveys were distributed through a random street intercept method by five trained interviewers. A further surveys were placed in household mailboxes. A total of street intercept and 9 mail box surveys were collected. Of these 9 street intercepts and mail were able to be used giving an overall response rate of.%. Figure presents a conceptual overview of the five variables and four market segments investigated in this study. The market segments were labeled Group (G) indicating respondents who not previously visited China. Group was further subdivided into Group - who were interested in visiting China in the next years and Group - who were not interested in visiting China in the next five years. Group (G) refers to respondents who have previously visited China. This group was also further divided into Group - who had a positive view towards revisiting China and Group - who were not interested in revisiting China in the following years.

6 Demographic variables of four segmentations Evaluation of past experience Importance of destination attributes Beliefs to likelihood of China offering the attributes Constraints Satisfaction Image perceived Intention to visit/revisit Information sources Figure. Proposed Research Model FINDINGS Respondents demographic profiles including gender, age, marital status, original location, education, occupation, and monthly income are illustrated in Table. Content Table. Respondents demographic profiles (N=) N Portion (%) Content N Portion (%) Gender Male. Occupation Self-employed. Female Professional 9. Age Below. Retail. Marital Status Type of trip Favorite travel party 9-9. Domestic duties Management Office/Clerical. -. Public service Manual/Factory worker. Above. Service industry 7. Single 7 7. Trade person 7. Married 9. Student 9 9. Others. Retired 9. Follow a tour group 9 7. Annual AU$, and under 9. Independent traveler. Income AU$,-9,. Alone 7. AU$7, -99,. Partner/spouse 7. AU$, plus 7 7. Strangers from blog. Preferred USA. Friends 9. destination New Zealand. Family with children 9. (top ) UK 7. With relatives 7. Japan. Club. China.

7 Original Location Brisbane 7. Educational Secondary 9. Townsville. Level Trade/TAFE. Cairns. Bachelor. (N=) Graduate School. Descriptive analysis of visiting/revisiting/recommendation/satisfaction (Table ) found that the percentage of respondents likely to visit China in the next years was % (/9) for those who had never visited China and 7% who had been to China previously (/). Group (G) refers to respondents who have not been to China while Group (G) refers to respondents who have previously visited China. Results indicate that past experience was a positive influence on intention for further visits. Respondents who had previously visited China (Table ) indicated that the recommendation and satisfaction level for Group - (positive) and Group - (negative) was 9% & % and 7. &. respectively. This indicates that most respondents had a satisfactory holiday experience reflected in a quite high level of satisfaction and positive recommendation to visit. However, as Table illustrates, there is a significant difference in the mean value of attitude to China s image between G (.) and G (.). Respondents who have never been to China (G) had an image perception that was much worse than respondents who had previously visited China (G). Sample Never been (G) Have been (G) No. 9 Table. Differences between the four respondent groups Willingness of visit/revisit Mean of Mean of Overall Attitude Recommendation satisfaction of last Segment No. Percentage to image visit Positive % (G-). Negative 9 % (G-) Positive 7% 9% (7/) 7. (G-). Negative % % (7/). (G-) Willingness of visit/revisit refers to in the next years Ten-point scale was used for attitude and overall satisfaction Table compares satisfaction between respondents visiting China before and after, with being the year international arrivals began to decline. The mean values of overall satisfaction between the two groups was 7 and. showing a slight decrease after. Attribute satisfaction is showed as Table. Among items of satisfaction, the mean of only one item (shopping/retail) improved after. This result indicates that the quality of the Chinese tourism experience was been perceived to have improved since.

8 Table. Comparison of satisfaction between respondents visiting before and after Sample Time No. Mean of Attribute satisfaction Mean Attribute overall satisfaction satisfaction Have been to China (G) Before After Mean 7 Courteous and friendly Public staff transport.7 Accommodation value Visit. for money information. Tours gave value for Feel safe and. money secure.7 Attractions offered value for money.7 Food. Standard of restaurants.7 Environment (cleanness, air.9 etc.) Shopping/retail.. Courteous and friendly Public. staff transport. Accommodation value Visit for money information Tours gave value for Feel safe and. money secure. Attractions offered value for money. Food.7 Environment Standard of restaurants (cleanness, air. etc.) Shopping/retail Differences between mean perception of importance and mean belief are shown in Table. In relation to the importance of overseas destination attributes, the four groups of respondents have very similar perceptions for attributes such as safety of the place you visiting, clean and safe local food, experiencing different lifestyle & cultures, cost of trip and natural environment of fresh air and blue sky. For beliefs that China will offer desired destination attributes, results in Table show that most mean values for beliefs are lower than. This indicates that most respondents think China would not satisfy these attributes. A comparison of mean perception of importance and mean belief as illustrated in Table indicates that the top seven features which have the most significant differences are: Natural environment of fresh air and blue sky (-.99); Casinos (.); Skyscrapers & modern city (.); Ease of communication with locals (-.); Safety of the place you visiting (-.9); Sunshine & beach (-.7) and clean and safe local food (-.). These features can be explained as follow. Respondents regard the natural environment, clean and safe food and safety as very important features when choosing an overseas destination. however they do not think China is able to offer these. They do however think that China can offer casinos and modern cities.

9 Feature Natural environment of fresh air and blue sky Casinos Skyscrapers & modern city Ease of communicatio n with locals Safety of the place you visiting Sunshine and beach Clean and safe local food Experiencing different lifestyle & cultures Cost of trip Easy access to destination Quality of accommodati on facilities Unique architecture Historic & cultural heritage Shopping Quality of services provided at tourist sites and hotels Table. Mean perception of importance and mean belief for different groups Mean perception of importance among different groups G G G G Average Mean belief among different groups G G G G Average Two mean compariso n A.-A Nightlife and

10 evening entertainment 9 Local transportation Easy to make new friends Restfulness and relaxation Language that I can. 7 understand. -.7 Having good restaurants.7. Festivals and.... events.. National parks and. 9 forests. -. Being by a mountain or a. river.. Natural heritage 9 -. Beautiful countryside Note: Group -: respondents who have not been to and would visit China within the next years; Group -: respondents who have not been to and were not interested in visiting China within the next years; Group -: respondents who have been to and intended to revisit China within the next years; Group -: respondents who have been to and were not intending to revisit China within the next years. Based on a factor analysis of important dimensions, composite scores were constructed for the corresponding beliefs scales. Table gives details of the comparison for items. Table shows that after factor analysis there are factors (sightseeing, natural beautify and climate, interactions with locals, cost & convenience, infrastructure and safety, and leisure). According to the data, this result indicates that for the dimensions of sightseeing and leisure the mean for likelihood will exceeded the mean for importance. In contrast, for the dimensions of natural beauty & climate, interaction with locals, cost & convenience, and infrastructure & safety the mean for importance is significantly higher than the corresponding mean for beliefs of what is available in China. To test which of the factor dimension of views about mainland China as a tourist destination were important, a predicted intention to visit China was conducted using a multiple regression with the six belief scales as predictors. According to the p- value, sightseeing (.), natural beauty & climate (.), cost & convenience (.) and infrastructure & safety (.) have a significant impact on intention to visit.

11 Table. Factor loading for target destination beliefs and mean comparison with importance attributes % Mean Mean Factor Cronbach s Factor Variance perception importance loading alpha explained of China rating Sightseeing..7 Historic & cultural heritage.9 Festivals and events.99 Skyscrapers & modern city. Experiencing different life style & cultures.7 Natural beauty and climate.7 National parks and forests.7 Being by a mountain or a river.7 Beautiful countryside.7 Natural heritage.7 Natural environment of fresh air and blue sky. Sunshine and beach. Interactions with locals.7.7 Easy to make new friends.7 Language that I can understand.7 Ease of communication with locals.7 Cost & Convenience.9.7 Cost of trip.9 Easy access to destination. Local transportation. Having good restaurants. Clean and safe local food.7 Infrastructure and safety..7 Quality of accommodation facilities Quality of services provided at tourist sites and hotels.7. Safety of the place you visiting. Leisure..7 Casinos.777 Nightlife and evening entertainment.7 Shopping. KMO=.79; Bartlett s=.97; df=7; Sig.=.. 7 (.9). (.). (.7) (.9) (.). (.9) (.99). (.9). (.) 77 (.). (.).9 (.)

12 Constraint Variable Table. Regression analysis B Β T P F R VIF Constant Sightseeing...** Natural beauty and. climate...** Interactions with locals Cost & Convenience..7..** Infrastructure and.9 safety..7.** Leisure *p<., ** p<. Adjusted R =.; p=.** The constraints identified for each of the four groups were clustered by descriptive analysis (Table 7). We chose the top five constraints features for each group and undertook a comparison. For the residents who have never been to China but intend to visit in the next years, the top five constraints were pollution, air quality, water quality, language barriers and food quality. For the respondents who have never been to China and were unlikely to visit in the next years, pollution, air quality, water quality, language barrier and security & safety were the top five factors of concern. For the third group of respondents who have previously been to China and expressed an intention to revisit in the next years, pollution, air quality, food quality, water quality and security & safety were considered as the top constraints factors. For respondents who have been to China but will not revisit, pollution, air quality, visa regulation and cost, food quality and water quality were the factors most likely to prevent them making a future visit. It is clear that the three constraint factors of pollution, air quality and water quality apply to all groups and indicates that for all Australian respondents pollution, air quality and water quality are considered as negative factors when considering travel to China. Table 7. Constraint mean for four groups Constraints of intention to visit for different groups Feature Group - Group - Group - Group - Mean StDev Mean StDev Mean StDev Mean StDev Pollution Air quality Visa regulations and cost Food quality Transportation in China No one to go with Water quality Language barriers Trip Cost Political reasons Security and safety I might be a victim of

13 terrorism Climate and weather Quality of goods & souvenirs Convenient access to China Currency exchange Accommodation in China Risk of a natural disaster Risk of a tourism accident I have no enough time Service level provided Country reputation It might be overcrowded Local people s behaviours I might get poor value for money I might get sick I might feel socially uncomfortable I might travel to exotic & unusual places I might injure myself People might have a bad opinion of me I might not have a great time It might be a waste of time Travel partners not interested Travel partners don t have time Travel partners can t afford it The result from the exploratory factor analysis are shown in Table, together with the reliability test for each factor. After deleting the items of high cross-loading on two factors, two rounds of factor analysis were conducted. This process resulted in a five-factor solution explaining.% of the total variance. The reliability coefficients ranged from.7 to.7, indicating a satisfactory level of internal consistency. The factors were labeled as structural constraint, interpersonal constraint, safety constraint, intrapersonal constraint, and cost constraint. The first factor explained % of the total variance and includes items. Since all the items loaded on this dimension are related to material or physical conditions making the visit difficult, this factor was labeled Structural constraint. The

14 second factor labeled Interpersonal constraint included items which accounted for 9.79% of the total variance. All the indicators reflect the difficulties caused by interaction with others. The third factor explained 7.7% of the construct variance and consists of items. This dimension is related to perceptions of safety resulting in this factor being labeled as Safety constraint. The fourth factor contained items and explained.% of variance of this construct. Items loaded on this dimension are concerned with the inhibitors associated with the psychological conditions of individuals. Therefore, this factor was labeled as Intrapersonal constraint. The last factor explained.% of the total variance and includes two items which loaded on this dimension and related to the cost of a visit. This factor was labeled as Cost constraint. Factors Table Constraint factors of Australian residents Factor Variance Eign-value loading explained % Cronbach s alpha Structural constraint.7.7 Air quality.99 Pollution. Quality of goods & souvenirs.7 Convenient access to China.9 Currency exchange.7 Transportation in China. Accommodation in China. Climate and weather.9 Water quality. Food quality.9 Service level provided. Interpersonal constraint Travel partners don t have time.9 Travel partners can t afford it. People might have a bad opinion of me.77 Travel partners not interested.77 Safety constraint Risk of a tourism accident. Risk of a natural disaster.79 I might be a victim of terrorism. Security and safety. Intrapersonal constraint...79 I might not have a great time.79 It might be a waste of time.7 I might feel socially uncomfortable.9

15 I might injure myself.99 I might get sick. Cost constraint...7 Trip Cost. Visa regulations and cost.7 KMO=.9; Bartlett s=.; df=; Sig.=.. To test which of the constraint dimensions were a factor preventing travel, a multiple regression with the five constraint scales as predictors was undertaken. According to p-value, interpersonal constraint (.), intrapersonal constraint (.), and cost constraint (.7) have significant impacts on intention to visit. Constraint Variable Table 9. Travel constraint and intention to visit B β t P F R VIF Constraints Structural constraint....9 Interpersonal constraint ** Safety constraint Intrapersonal constraint ** Cost constraint ** Adjusted R =.; p=.** *p<., ** p< One objective of this study was to discover the information sources used by actual and potential respondents, as well as the influence of information sources used by each of the four segments. Respondents were asked about the information sources that they used (if any) to form an image of what mainland China has to offer. As illustrated in Fig. the Internet was most often used source by all four segments when collecting information about destinations followed by friends/family. Been before was also an important source of information for G- and G-. For G-, TV/radio, newspapers and magazines, school/university were given as the major sources of information compared to G- (belonging to the same group ), G- and G-. For G-, Facebook, newspapers and magazines were the important sources of information comparing to G-. It is concluded that these information sources will are likely to have a negative impact on the intention of visiting China.

16 Figure. Use of information sources to find out information about China by four groups DISCUSSION This study sort to gain a deeper awareness to how beliefs, constraints, past experiences and information sources are related to the intentions of Australian residents to travel to mainland China. The study also helps to explain why the number of international arrivals to mainland China have declined in recent years. The results indicate that the key elements influencing China s Australian inbound tourism market are past experience, time of visit, beliefs about China, constraints and information sources. Among the four groups of Australian respondents, the willingness of Group to visit was % while 7% of Group indicated an intent to revisit. This result indicates that past experiences in China positively influenced the intention of visiting. Respondents who have previously visited China are more likely to revisit than the people who have never visited China. Respondents were divided into two different segments labeled as before- and after-. The number of international arrivals in China started to decrease significantly from. The results showed that after, the mean of overall satisfaction of travel was lower than before. Only one of the eleven attributes of satisfaction increased post. This finding indicates a need for Chinese tourism organizations to reconsider the type of products and experiences offered to foreign tourists. Testing the difference between the perception of importance and the beliefs of respondents about the likelihood that preferred dimensions would be found in China indicated that natural environment of fresh air and blue sky, (-) was the most preferred item. Most respondents who treated this item as the most important element when choosing an overseas destination felt that China cannot offer this element. Respondents also viewed Skyscrapers and modern city (+) as dimensions that China can offer at a level that is superior to their expectations. Ease of communication with locals (-) and safety (-) were also important factors, however respondents did not believe that China would could satisfy these dimensions. This result revealed a

17 number of issues that China needs to address to increase its inbound market. While China is generally recognized as a popular destination perception problems remain in relation to the quality of the natural environment, air quality, safety and communication with locals. These perceptions appear to be issues that dissuade Australian tourists from visiting China. A factor analysis found six factors which were labeled as sightseeing, natural beauty and climate, interactions with locals, cost and convenience, infrastructure and safety and leisure. Using multiple regression analysis, the relationship between belief and intention was tested. Sightseeing, natural beauty and climate, cost and convenience, and infrastructure and safety were found to have a significant impact on the intention of visit. Constraints items were compared between the four groups of respondents (G-, G-, G- and G-). Pollution, air quality and water quality were the items of most concern for respondents in all four groups. This result indicates that until perceptions that China is heavily polluted are reduced people may select other destinations over China. Factor analysis revealed five constraint factors with interpersonal constraint, intrapersonal constraint, and cost constraint have the most influence on the intention of visit. The Internet, individual experiences and friends/family were the most used information source by respondents. Friends/family and past experience are the information sources most likely to have a positive impact on intention of visit. This result indicates that a satisfactory travel experience is the most efficient way to encourage potential tourists to visit China. Positive word-of-mouth and satisfied personal experiences remain still the most valid method to assist in developing China s inbound tourism. Conclusions The results verify observations by a number of scholars (Sutton, 99; Van den Putte, 99) that theories of human behavior such as the TRA model are useful for understanding an individual s behavioural intentions and future actions. This study also affirmed that there is a positive relationship between tourist attitude, tourist satisfaction and destination attributes which are regarded as desirable. The results also supported Kim et al () finding that safety, and beautiful scenery were important attributes for Australian outbound.the results did not confirm Kim et al () findings about the importance of equipped tourism facilities, cultural/historical resources and good weather. Several practical implications arise from this research, and these may be of interest to destination managers and marketers. First, at a more general level, the respondents who had previously visited mainland China have the most positive attitude to the image of China and willingness to revisit, while respondents who have never visited China have a more negative image on China and a lower willingness to visit China in the near future. The former obtained their information about China from the Internet, friends/family and been before, and the latter were more likely to use the

18 Internet, TV/radio and newspaper/magazines. This finding suggests that the China Tourism Organization should focus on promotion of China using the Internet and word-of-mouth. The Internet and Facebook could be the more neutral channel to deliver China s information compared to TV and newspapers which seem to be more selected in their reporting of news about China. Secondly, from the comparison of satisfaction of travel to China before and after, it appears that the quality of China s inbound tourism experience has not improved and in some areas may have declined. In today s competitive international market, it is important that the Chinese government encourages novel, high quality and original tourism experience and addresses issues such as air pollution. Thirdly, it is apparent that pollution, air quality, water quality and safety are significant areas of concern. In part this is a result of media reports about China s pollution and problems with food and water. This finding suggests that China needs to keep improving the environment and inform the international media about how this is regarded as an important issue. This study has suggested several ideas for arresting the decline in international arrivals to China. Improving Chinese tourism image is vital and a task for the China Central Tourism Organization. Promotion channels can play a key role ameliorating China tourism image. It is also important for managers and marketers to be aware of the beliefs that potential visitors hold about China and support strategies that will help China overcome problems that may arise when potential tourists feel that these problems have not been addressed. This study has provided unique insights into a group of potential Australian tourists by examining constructs and applying these to intention of visit. The findings provide interesting results, however, like most studies, it is not without limitations. First, the sample was derived from one country (Australia) and it is quite possible that international residents in other countries could hold different beliefs about mainland China. Future research should attempt to obtain samples from other countries that have the potential for visiting China. It might be not necessarily representative of all international tourists in this study. Secondly, the sample was biased toward young people and it would be preferable to gain the views of a broader range of age groups. Future research could attempt to sample by age to obtain insights into the likely generational change in attitudes toward outbound travel. In this study, concerns about safety were quite high, however China s safety index is high (NUMBEO, 7). Future research could compare the perception of safety level and the destination real safety level to identify if there is a problem from the tourists perspective. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors thank the reviewers for their careful reading and providing some pertinent suggestions. This work was partly supported by the Education Ministry Scientific Research Fund for Returned Overseas Talents [Grant Number ()79], the Key Research Base Project of University Humanities & Social Sciences, Henan, China [Project No. -JD-], and the grant from National Science Foundation of China (Project No. 7).

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