Integration of spatial technologies and methods to understand and combat crime in South Africa. 28 March ISS Seminar

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1 Integration of spatial technologies and methods to understand and combat crime in South Africa 28 March 2013 ISS Seminar By: Corné Eloff (dr) Principal Researcher

2 SET THE SCENE Slide 2 CSIR

3 Through the eyes of the citizen Griekwastad trial visits crime scene - News :27 HORRIFIED CRIME SITUATION IN RSA The triple murder trial of a 16-year-old boy is visiting the crime scene, a farm near Griekwastad. Man held for North West farm murder - News :42 A 22-year-old man has been arrested in connection with the weekend murder of a Ventersdorp farmer, North West police say. SA's youth anguish over jobs, money - Fin :23 Young South Africans are out of their minds with worry, as money, job security and crime are giving them sleepless nights. Slide 3 CSIR

4 Wasted government spending bemoaned 42 minutes ago 18/03/2013 HORRIFIED POLITICAL SITUATION IN RSA Wasteful government spending of R24.8bn could have been used for numerous projects to the benefit of South Africans, the SA Institute of Race Relations says. Prisons dept defends R2bn consultants bill R49m spent on Nkandla consultants - DA Taxpayers to pay for MEC's crash 2012 Legatum Prosperity Index BING Search Engine 1,490,000 results Top 5 Norway Denmark Australia New Zeeland Sweden Well disciplined High education std s Respect (People/Env) Low population growth Infrastructure Stability Corruption in South Africa. Tenderpreneur is a local term that has been created to refer to individuals who enrich themselves through government tender contracts... South Africa (74)????? PERSPECTIVES ON ANTI-CORRUPTION INITIATIVES IN SOUTH AFRICA Slide 4 CSIR

5 Let us measure wealth + wellbeing = Prosperity RSA 69/142 in 2011 Slide 5 CSIR

6 DO WE UNDERSTAND CRIME? Slide 6 CSIR

7 Let s build houses :~)) The complex housing development system Slide 7 CSIR

8 Social science perspective Explain crime from an etiology (origin) perspective Study its extent and nature within society Family/home Community School Extra-family Personal Nine contributing factors to crime: Population demographics (heterogeneous vs homogeneous) Uncontrolled urbanisation Economic strain and deprivation (unemployment) Substance abuse Education level Past experience of criminal activities Cultural activities Crime opportunities Slide 8 CSIR

9 Environment to combat crime? Intelligence-Led-Policing Intelligence-led policing was originally articulated as a law enforcement operational strategy that sought to reduce crime through the combined use of crime analysis and criminal intelligence in order to determine crime reduction tactics that concentrate on the enforcement and prevention of criminal offender activity, with a focus on active and recidivist offenders. 3-i Model The 3-i model is a model that simply shows the role of the intelligence/crime analyst in an intelligence-led policing environment. The aim of the model is to show that crime reduction will not happen unless analysts interpret the criminal environment and influence the thinking of decision makers who in turn have a positive impact on the criminal environment. Source: Prof J Ratcliff, Temple Unv Slide 9 CSIR

10 Crime mapping Crime mapping is used by analysts in law enforcement agencies to map, visualize, and analyse crime incident patterns. It is a key component of crime analysis and the CompStat policing strategy. Crime analysis A set of processes applied on relevant information about crime patterns. tactical, strategic, academic, operations, intelligence, investigative Crime prevention Seeks to reduce the risks of criminal events and related anti-social behaviour by intervening in their causes. Spatial statistics Spatial dependency Tobler s first law of geography, Nna, Moran s I Centrographic statistics mean, SD, median Spatial regression Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) physical and socio-economical influence, Gi & Gi*, Kernel density, GWR Ecological theories Chicago school, Routine activity, Rational choice, situational crime prevention, crime pattern theory, Slide 10 CSIR

11 Towards spatial intelligence Multiple-Intelligences for Humans 7 Elements Spatial understanding HUMINT IMIGINT SIGINT OSINT Evidence based Slide 11

12 Workflow logic applied Rhino s Poacher Target - Rhino Database Statistics & Auxiliary GIS x,y Incident Count vs KNP Section Socioeconomic/ theory/ prevention. Journey- to- crime Remote Supervised Time Series classification - Illegal Slide 12 Sensing EcoZones CSIR border crossings Object Orientated automation Bare/ linear

13 Rhino Killings in Space & Time Houtboschrand May 2011 April 2011 StolsNek Lower Sabie Crocodile Bridge Mar 2011 Feb 2011 Jan 2011 Central KNP South KNP Slide 13 CSIR

14 Near Distance: Straight line Slide 14

15

16 Integrated spatial technologies WILL contribute to the understanding and combating of crime Lack of awareness and skills to apply sufficient spatial analysis is evident within the safety and security domain Collecting and collation of crime data from a quality perspective (and under-reporting) is a serious concern Generalisation of policing methods vs specialisation efforts within geographical profiled areas lack Spatial intelligence requires a modernised approach to policing. Is South Africa ready to adapt?? CONCLUSION South Africa has a SERIOUS crime problem and undermines Art 12 (1)(c) Freedom and Security of the person to be free from all forms of violence either public or private sources All efforts, together (whole-approach), is required to prevent and Slide 16 combat this crime disease in South Africa CSIR

17 MIND-SET Change to crime combating: WHOLE-APPROACH Recognition: CSIR DPSS Foresight Scenarios & Risks Security Chain Analysis What tasks? With what capabilities? Who? SANDF Na#onal Interests Preven#on SAPS DHA SARS Values Response DoH DIRCO Evalua#on CSIR 2013 Slide 17 Other: Academia, Industry, R&D

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