RISK IN SOCIAL SCIENCES

Transcription

1 RISK IN SOCIAL SCIENCES CONCEPTUAL TOOLS TO ADDRESS EMERGING RISKS IN SOUTH EAST ASIA Muriel Figuié, Cirad, sociologist

2 RISKS: MAIN TOPICS ADDRESSED BY SOCIAL SCIENTISTS (1) 1. Individual / Collective management of risks Individual People, public, laymen... versus experts Perception, acceptability, risk behaviours (risk taker, risk averse) intervention: Education, information,... Collective Local communities, farmers organisations, market chains, administrations, States, International organisations... Interaction, coordination, cooperation, collective action, trust, share of costs and benefits intervention: Regulation, politic adaptation,... 2

3 RISKS: MAIN TOPICS ADDRESSED BY SOCIAL SCIENTISTS (2) 1. Indiviudal / Collective management of risks 2. Usual (endemic)/ Emerging risks Usual, classical risks Well known Routinized and satbilized measures (implemented or not) Prevention Emerging risks New, unknown Dealing with uncertainty Precaution 3

4 1. INDIVIDUAL MANAGEMENT OF RISKS Hypothesis: Behaviors are driven by perceptions Common sense: Over-estimation. Public panic, media contributes to a social amplification of risks Under-estimation. Low compliance with biosecurity measures (ex: farmers) : optimistic bias A gap between laymen and experts perception of risks. How to explain and correct this gap?

5 Risk perceptions Expert s definition of risk Experts Risk = likelihood x severity Individual (layman) behaviour results from perception of the likelihood and severity of outcomes (Rational actors theory and value expectancy models) But: 1. People make mistakes in evaluating likelihood and severity 5

6 Experts Risk = likelihood x severity 1. People make mistakes in evaluating likelihood and severity (Economic psychology: Nobel prizes Kahneman and Tversky 1974, 1982) Immediacy of effect. Results that directly follow causes tend to receive greater attention, in thinking about risk, than more remote ones. Probability distortion. Tendency to overestimate rare events and to underestimate frequent ones 6

7 Tendency to overestimate rare events and to underestimate frequent ones 0: low 9: high 7

8 Experts Risk = likelihood x severity 1. People make mistakes in evaluating likelihood and severity 2. Avaibility bias: People tend to overestimate rare but striking events (0,0001x1) >>>> (1x0,0001) People fears more (accepts less) risk with low probability and high severity than >>>> risk with high probability and low severity

9 People overestimate rare by striking events: (0,0001x1) >>>> (1x0,0001) Television broadcast in Germany/ smoked herring/ parasitism Fatal 60 cases in 18 years Consumption decreases 50 to 80% But very low probability 60 cases for 7,5 * 10 9 meals in 18 years P= 0, % Panic or rational behaviour? 9

10 3. Uncertainty ex: Fox and Weber test Experience Bag A: ½ red balls, ½ black balls Bag B: red and black balls in an unknown proportion Test 1 People can choose a bag, they win if they get a red ball; Most of them choose the bag A

11 Uncertainty Experience Bag A: ½ red balls, ½ black balls Bag B: red and black balls in an unknown proportion Test 1 People can choose a bag, they win if they get a red ball; Most of them choose the bag A Test 2 People can choose a bag, they win if they get a black ball; Most of them choose the bag A 11

12 1. People make mistakes in evaluating likelihood and severity 2. People overestimates rare but striking events 3.People are adverse to uncertainty. 12

13 How to correct bias and low compliance? Increasing knowledge by Information and education campaigns (IEC)/ behaviour change campaigns (BCC)

14 2. COLLECTIVE MANAGEMENT OF RISKS Issues: 1. Cooperation, coordination 2. Shared values and interests 3. Trust... 14

15 FREE RIDING BEHAVIOUR Ex: Vaccination Herd immunity : 70-80% of vaccinated animals Reduced risk for non-vaccinated animals also Owners of non-vaccinated animals benefit from herd immunity but do not pay the cost of the vaccination (cost of the vaccin, potential side effects...): free rider

16 INSTITUTIONAL SILO (JEROLMACK 2013) Refers to the constraints for the collaboration between institutions (and also scientific communities): differences in culture, habits, interests, values... Ex Rabies control/ dogs and humans «Costs» for Ministry of agriculture «Benefits» for Ministry of Health

17 3. EMERGING RISKS: DEALING WITH COMPLEXITY AND UNCERTAINTY Complex/systemic risks: more actors have to collaborate (One health) Uncertainty: taking decision without full knowledge

18 public Adapted by Renn 2008 from Millstone et al 2004 «In this model, objective science is seen to directly inform policy making. Scientists are the best judges of the tolerability of risks and inform policy-makers directly about the way to do» (Renn, 2008)

19 In Renn, Science, politic, economic actors and representative of civil society are invited to play a role in both assessment and management (source: Renn, 2008)

20 4. PUBLIC PARTICIPATION/ INCLUSIVE GOVERNANCE Involving «public» Communicate only what is necessary to avoid panic? Or associate public to risk assessment and as risk managers? public trust «Inclusive governance is based on the assumption that: all stakeholders have something to contribute to the process of risk governance and that mutual communication and exchange of ideas, assessments and evaluation improve the final decision, rather than impede the decision-making process or compromise the quality of scientific input and the legitimacy of legal requirements» (Renn 2008) Efficiency, legitimacy

21 COLLECTIVE ACTION/ RESILIENCE Resilience «Resilience is the capacity of a system, be it an individual, a forest, a city or an economy, to deal with change and continue to develop. It is about how humans and nature can use shocks and disturbances like a financial crisis or climate change to spur renewal and innovative thinking (SRC). Public participation in risk management = improving resilience Identifying and assessing collective laymen practices for risk management

22 HYPO: «PEOPLE ARE ORGANIZED TO MANAGE RISKS» DOC (vaccinated Marek) vaccins (1000 doses) x x T1: Industrial farms ( heads). vaccination 5 weeks vaccinated chicks + other vaccination T2: Commercial farms (1500 heads) young hens T3: small scale farmers ( heads) Ex poultry farmers in Madagascar (Mahitsy/ gripavi) Pb access to Doc and vaccin High mortality of chicks (winter)

23 OIE Focal point Surveillance of animal diseases formal/ informal system Private company country 1 Thailand/ Grease Private company Country 2 Public Vet Industrial farms Private Vet Headman of the village Traders, wholesalers Farmers village 1 Village 1 Etnic group A Village 2 Etnic group B 23

24 CONCLUSION: RISK, VULNERABILITY AND RESILIENCE Risk focuses on danger and risk behaviours, non compliance Vulnerability focuses on people at risk, passive victims Resilience introduces people as risks managers; Inclusive risk management should include people as risk managers

25 CONCLUSION: RISK, VULNERABILITY AND RESILIENCE participation «official» risk managers (administration) Inclusive governance resilience «people» support