The Psychology of Inductive Inference

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "The Psychology of Inductive Inference"

Transcription

1 The Psychology of Inductive Inference Psychology 355: Cognitive Psychology Instructor: John Miyamoto 05/24/2018: Lecture 09-4 Note: This Powerpoint presentation may contain macros that I wrote to help me create the slides. The macros aren t needed to view the slides. You can disable or delete the macros without any change to the presentation.

2 Outline Deductive and inductive reasoning Expected utility theory - the normative theory of rational action The heuristics & biases research program The availability heuristic What is it? The representativeness heuristic What is it? Lecture probably ends here Introduction to Reasoning Psych 355, Miyamoto, Spr 18 2

3 Psych 355, Miyamoto, Spr '18 2 x 2 Table Showing Contrast between Deductive & Inductive Inference 3 Introduction to Reasoning Deductive & inductive inference - what are they? Expected utility theory - the normative theory of rational action The heuristics & biases research program - what is it? The availability heuristic What is it? The representativeness heuristic What is it?

4 Deductive and Inductive Inference Psych 355, Miyamoto, Spr '18 Focus on Deductive Inference 4

5 Deductive Reasoning Examples of deductive reasoning: Math problem solving Logic problems Some aspects of physics problem solving; and other natural science problem solving Four Card Problem Psych 355, Miyamoto, Spr '18 Definition of Inductive Reasoning 5

6 Inductive Reasoning Examples of inductive reasoning: How likely is it that it will rain tomorrow in Seattle? How likely is it that the defendant in a criminal trial is guilty? What do the results of an experiment imply about a hypothesis that is tested in the experiment? Economic forecasts: How likely is a recession in Europe during 2019/2020? Based on what we know about American history, politics and culture, what is likely to happen in the next national elections? Psych 355, Miyamoto, Spr '18 Why Psychologists Are Interested in Inductive Reasoning 6

7 Why Psychologists Are Interested in Inductive Reasoning Most real-world questions involve uncertainties. How do people make decisions when faced with risk and uncertainty? Rational decision model: Expected utility theory Bayesian decision theory Central assumption of economic theory & business decision making: Rational decision makers obey the Bayesian decision theory Heuristics & biases research: Cognitive critique of the rational agent model. Modern behavioral economics General issue of how humans acquire knowledge from uncertain information. Psych 355, Miyamoto, Spr '18 Psychology of Risk What Are Basic Issues? 7

8 Psych 355, Miyamoto, Spr '18 Basic Elements of a Rational Decision Model 8 Psychology of Risk and Likelihood What Are Basic Issues? How do people make decisions when faced with risk and uncertainty? Example: Deciding whether to buy a house. Deciding which house to buy among the available choices. Example: Deciding what medical treatment is best for a given patient (maybe yourself; maybe for someone else). How do people judge the likelihood of events? Example: How likely is it that North Korea will sell nuclear technology to other terrorists? Example: How likely is it that you will find a good job if you pursue a career in X, e.g., marketing? How do people judge how much they like or dislike particular possibilities? How do people predict their future preferences?

9 Basic Elements of a Rational Decision Model All decisions can/should be represented as choices between gambles. Every possible action should be represented as a specific gamble. Mathematicians, economists and philosophers have identified rules of reasoning that govern how a rational agent would choose a best course of action (best gamble) from the available actions Psychological Issues in the Critique of Rational Decision Models How do humans perceive risks? How do humans respond to risks? How do humans evaluate uncertainties? How do humans evaluate the relative strength of preference for different outcomes. Psych 355,, Miyamoto, Spr '18 Rational Decision Model & JDM 9

10 Psych 355, Miyamoto, Spr '18 Definition - Heuristic Reasoning Strategies 10 Rational Decision Model & JDM Rational decision model: Expected utility theory Bayesian decision theory Central assumption of economic theory & business decision making: Rational decision makers obey the Bayesian decision theory Judgment & Decision Making (JDM) a branch of cognitive psychology; generally critical of the rational decision model Human cognitive processes lead to counterproductive (suboptimal) judgments and decisions Heuristics & biases research: Cognitive critique of the rational agent model. Heuristics & biases research program is a major part of JDM research.

11 Heuristic Reasoning Strategies Heuristic reasoning strategies reasoning strategies that are useful because they are easy and generally effective, even though they can sometimes lead to errors. Psych 355, Miyamoto, Spr '18 Main Claims of the Heuristics & Biases Movement 11

12 Main Claims of the Heuristics & Biases (H&B) Movement Human cognitive processes do not follow the pattern of a rational model. (Rational model = expected utility theory & Bayesian decision model) Human decision making uses heuristic strategies that are useful, but they can lead to systematic errors. Heuristic reasoning strategies... o... are often fast and effective, o... place low demands on cognitive resources. o... but they can lead to errors in particular situations. Behavioral economics the application of cognitive psychology to the analysis of economic behavior. Psych 355, Miyamoto, Spr '18 Heuristic Reasoning Strategies - Definition 12

13 Some Heuristics in Inductive Reasoning Availability Representativeness Anchoring & Adjustment Confirmation bias Focusing illusion Framing effects Mental accounting More heuristics that have been proposed than are listed here. Psych 355, Miyamoto, Spr '18 Availability Heuristic 13

14 Availability Heuristic Frequency of Experience Other Factors Availability of Memory for an Event Availability of Memory for an Event Judged Likelihood of a Similar Event Learning Judgment Availability heuristic events are judged more probable if similar events are easy to recall or easy to imagine. In general, frequently encountered events are easier to recall. The availability heuristic exploits the converse of this relationship: Events that are easy to recall are thought to be frequent in occurrence. Availability heuristic causes biased probability judgments when other factors that influence availability are not taken into account. Psych 355, Miyamoto, Spr '18 Same Slide Without Emphasis Rectangles 14

15 Availability Heuristic Frequency of Experience Other Factors Availability of Memory for an Event Availability of Memory for an Event Judged Likelihood of a Similar Event Learning Judgment Availability heuristic events are judged more probable if similar events are easy to recall or easy to imagine. o o o In general, frequently encountered events are easier to recall. The availability heuristic exploits the converse of this relationship: Events that are easy to recall are thought to be frequent in occurrence. Availability heuristic causes biased probability judgments when other factors that influence availability are not taken into account. Psych 355, Miyamoto, Spr '18 Availability: Lists of Famous & Non-Famous Names 15

16 Availability Bias Due to Ease of Encoding Famous/Non-Famous Names x Male/Female Condition I: Famous Male Non-Famous Female Bill Clinton Tom Hanks Michael Jordan... Mary Brooks Andrea Forbus Leanne Faris... Condition II: Famous Female Non-Famous Male William Hale Murray Jencks Lionel Worley... Michelle Obama Angelina Jolie Sarah Palin... Subjects saw a list of names, one at a time, that mixed famous males with non-famous females, or vice versa. There were 18 famous and 19 non-famous names in the list. Next: Same Slide with No Barriers & Results Psych 355, Miyamoto, Spr '18 16

17 Results: Famous/Non-Famous Names x Male/Female Psych 355, Miyamoto, Spr '18 Reminder of Link to Memory Model 17 Condition I: Famous Male Non-Famous Female Bill Clinton Tom Hanks Michael Jordan... Mary Brooks Andrea Forbus Leanne Faris... Results: Condition II: Famous Female Non-Famous Male William Hale Murray Jencks Lionel Worley... Michelle Obama Angelina Jolie Sarah Palin... Subjects reported that the list had more males than females, if the males were famous; Subjects reported that the list had more females than males, if the females were famous; Availability influences perceived frequency.

18 Availability Heuristic Frequency of Experience Other Factors Availability of Memory for an Event Availability of Memory for an Event Judged Likelihood of a Similar Event Learning Judgment Other Factors that influence availability of a memory Famous names are easy to encode and easy to retrieve. Non-famous names are harder to encode and harder to retrieve. Psych 355, Miyamoto, Spr '18 Egocentric Bias - Intro 18

19 Psych 355, Miyamoto, Spr '18 Predicted Response Pattern If No Bias Existed 19 Egocentric Bias (Example of Availability Heuristic) Egocentric bias: People overestimate the proportion of the total work that they have contributed to a project. Ross & Sicoly (1979): Subjects were 37 married couples. Working separately, husband and wife rated self and spouse for their work on 20 activities: making breakfast; cleaning dishes; cleaning house; making important decisions;... ; causing arguments between themselves; making the house messy; irritating spouse. primarily husband primarily wife

20 Psych 355, Miyamoto, Spr '18 Predicted Response Pattern If No Bias Existed 20 Rating Procedure in Egocentric Bias Study Husband and wife rated self and spouse for their work on 20 activities primarily husband Wife's Mark Husband's Mark primarily wife Husband's Rating of Self Wife's Rating of Self Subjects rated their responsibility on a line as shown above. Husband's rating measured as distance from the right end; wife's ratings measured as distance from the left end. If husband and wife have accurate perceptions of responsibility, the sum of their ratings should equal the length of the line.

21 Psych 355, Miyamoto, Spr '18 Predicted Response Pattern If Egocentric Bias Exists 21 Example: Suppose that Husband & Wife's Ratings Are Consistent With Each Other Husband and wife agree as to contribution of each to a task like washing dishes: primarily husband primarily wife + 25 in husband's scoring + 75 in wife's scoring +100 total of husband & wife If husband and wife were not egocentric, the couple's ratings would sum to +100.

22 Example: Suppose that Husband & Wife's Ratings Are Inconsistent With Each Other Husband and wife disagree about their contributions to washing dishes. primarily husband primarily wife + 45 in husband's scoring + 75 in wife's scoring +120 total of husband & wife If husband and wife are egocentric, the couple's ratings would sum to more than 100. Psych 355, Miyamoto, Spr '18 Results for Egocentric Bias Study 22

23 Results for Egocentric Bias Study The inconsistent pattern is typical: On many activities,... Husband s Rating + Wife s Rating > 100 The result holds for both good things (wash the dishes) and bad things (buy unnecessary things). This pattern suggests an excessive attribution to the self of both credit and blame. Psych 355, Miyamoto, Spr '18 Why Do Couples Have an Egocentric Bias? 23

24 Why Do Couples Have an Egocentric Bias? Is egocentric bias due to some aspect of male/female relations? Or is it due to something specific to male/female couples? Probably not. Self versus supervisor focus in attributing responsibility for BA thesis work. Basketball players attributing responsibility for wins or losses. Egocentric bias is probably due to the greater availability of self-actions than partner actions. Sampling Bias in Everyday Media Psych 355, Miyamoto, Spr '18 24

25 Thursday, 24 May, 2018: The Lecture Ended Here Psych 355, Miyamoto, Spr '18 25

26 Sampling Bias in Everyday Media Biases in Information Sources Biases in Availability Biases in Perceived Likelihood of Events Things we all know: TV ads do not give an accurate picture of the value of products. Political spin doctors are trying to manipulate our beliefs. TV news is emphasizes dramatic events; it ignores undramatic events. The portrayal of men/women, black/whites, rich/poor, gay/straight, on TV is not a representative presentation of these groups. Our own experiences are not typical of everybody s experience. Etc. We all know that these information sources are biased, but can we really correct for these biases when forming beliefs? Doubtful. Return to the Diagram of the Availability Heuristic & List of Other Factors Psych 355, Miyamoto, Spr '18 26

27 Other Factors that Influence the Availability of Events Egocentric bias. Dramatic events seem more common than non-dramatic events. Biases in the media create biases in the availability of stereotypes. Recent events seem more common than earlier events. Anything that makes events easier to encode or retrieve can make the events seem more frequent than they are. Psych 355, Miyamoto, Spr '18 Summary re the Availability Heuristic - END 27

28 Psych 355, Miyamoto, Spr '18 END 28 Summary re the Availability Heuristic Judging probability in terms of availability is a heuristic. I.e., it is generally a reasonable way to estimate likelihood, but it can lead to certain systematic errors. Factors that are not related to experienced frequency can make make particular events more available. E.g., the perceived probability of being killed by a random crazy person will tend to be exaggerated if biased news and cognitive biases make this kind of event more available than more mundane events.

Heuristics & Biases:

Heuristics & Biases: Heuristics & Biases: The Availability Heuristic and The Representativeness Heuristic Psychology 355: Cognitive Psychology Instructor: John Miyamoto 05/29/2018: Lecture 10-2 Note: This Powerpoint presentation

More information

Representativeness Heuristic and Conjunction Errors. Risk Attitude and Framing Effects

Representativeness Heuristic and Conjunction Errors. Risk Attitude and Framing Effects 1st: Representativeness Heuristic and Conjunction Errors 2nd: Risk Attitude and Framing Effects Psychology 355: Cognitive Psychology Instructor: John Miyamoto 05/30/2018: Lecture 10-3 Note: This Powerpoint

More information

Answer the questions on the handout labeled: Four Famous Reasoning Problems. Try not to remember what you may have read about these problems!

Answer the questions on the handout labeled: Four Famous Reasoning Problems. Try not to remember what you may have read about these problems! Classroom Experiment Answer the questions on the handout labeled: Four Famous Reasoning Problems Try not to remember what you may have read about these problems! Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17 1 The Representativeness

More information

Psychology 466: Judgment & Decision Making

Psychology 466: Judgment & Decision Making Psychology 466: Judgment & Decision Making Psychology 466: Judgment & Decision Making Instructor: John Miyamoto 09/28/2017: Lecture 01-2 Note: This Powerpoint presentation may contain macros that I wrote

More information

Introduction to Preference and Decision Making

Introduction to Preference and Decision Making Introduction to Preference and Decision Making Psychology 466: Judgment & Decision Making Instructor: John Miyamoto 10/31/2017: Lecture 06-1 Note: This Powerpoint presentation may contain macros that I

More information

Introduction to Categorization Theory

Introduction to Categorization Theory Introduction to Categorization Theory (Goldstein Ch 9: Knowledge) Psychology 355: Cognitive Psychology Instructor: John Miyamoto 05/15/2018: Lecture 08-2 Note: This Powerpoint presentation may contain

More information

History of JDM Linear Judgment Models

History of JDM Linear Judgment Models Finish: Begin: History of JDM Linear Judgment Models Psychology 466: Judgment & Decision Making Instructor: John Miyamoto 10/03/2017: Lecture 02-1 Note: This Powerpoint presentation may contain macros

More information

Inside View Versus Outside View Irregularity Hypothesis Attribute Substitution

Inside View Versus Outside View Irregularity Hypothesis Attribute Substitution Finish: Next: Next: Inside View Versus Outside View Irregularity Hypothesis Attribute Substitution Psychology 466: Judgment & Decision Making Instructor: John Miyamoto 10/24/2017: Lecture 05-1 Note: This

More information

Psychological Factors Influencing People s Reactions to Risk Information. Katherine A. McComas, Ph.D. University of Maryland

Psychological Factors Influencing People s Reactions to Risk Information. Katherine A. McComas, Ph.D. University of Maryland Psychological Factors Influencing People s Reactions to Risk Information Katherine A. McComas, Ph.D. University of Maryland What This Tutorial Covers Reasons for understanding people s risk perceptions

More information

FAQ: Heuristics, Biases, and Alternatives

FAQ: Heuristics, Biases, and Alternatives Question 1: What is meant by the phrase biases in judgment heuristics? Response: A bias is a predisposition to think or act in a certain way based on past experience or values (Bazerman, 2006). The term

More information

Managerial Decision Making: Session 6

Managerial Decision Making: Session 6 Representativeness Review Managerial Decision Making: Session 6 Classic Heuristics: Representativeness (continued) and Availability Kent L. Womack, 2003, all rights reserved. Please do not share outside

More information

The Case Against Deliberative Decision Making

The Case Against Deliberative Decision Making The Case Against Deliberative Decision Making Psychology 466: Judgment & Decision Making Instructor: John Miyamoto 11/30/2017: Lecture 10-2 Note: This Powerpoint presentation may contain macros that I

More information

to Cues Present at Test

to Cues Present at Test 1st: Matching Cues Present at Study to Cues Present at Test 2nd: Introduction to Consolidation Psychology 355: Cognitive Psychology Instructor: John Miyamoto 05/03/2018: Lecture 06-4 Note: This Powerpoint

More information

Thinking and Intelligence

Thinking and Intelligence Thinking and Intelligence Learning objectives.1 The basic elements of thought.2 Whether the language you speak affects the way you think.3 How subconscious thinking, nonconscious thinking, and mindlessness

More information

Actor-Observer Bias One of the most established phenomenon in social psychology YOUR behavior is attributed to OTHER S behavior is attributed to

Actor-Observer Bias One of the most established phenomenon in social psychology YOUR behavior is attributed to OTHER S behavior is attributed to 1 The Self in Social Psychology Disclaimer: there are many class demonstrations not included in the notes (to prevent ruining them); if you miss this lecture, you should get the notes from someone in the

More information

An Understanding of Role of Heuristic on Investment Decisions

An Understanding of Role of Heuristic on Investment Decisions International Review of Business and Finance ISSN 0976-5891 Volume 9, Number 1 (2017), pp. 57-61 Research India Publications http://www.ripublication.com An Understanding of Role of Heuristic on Investment

More information

Chapter 11 Decision Making. Syllogism. The Logic

Chapter 11 Decision Making. Syllogism. The Logic Chapter 11 Decision Making Syllogism All men are mortal. (major premise) Socrates is a man. (minor premise) (therefore) Socrates is mortal. (conclusion) The Logic Mortal Socrates Men 1 An Abstract Syllogism

More information

Insight Assessment Measuring Thinking Worldwide

Insight Assessment Measuring Thinking Worldwide California Critical Thinking Skills Test (CCTST). The CCTST measures the reasoning skills human beings use in the process of reflectively deciding what to believe or what to do. Skill/Attribute Name SE

More information

Memory Schemas, Source Monitoring & Eyewitness Memory

Memory Schemas, Source Monitoring & Eyewitness Memory Memory Schemas, Source Monitoring & Eyewitness Memory Psychology 355: Cognitive Psychology Instructor: John Miyamoto 05/09/2018: Lecture 07-3 Note: This Powerpoint presentation may contain macros that

More information

Sensory Memory, Short-Term Memory & Working Memory

Sensory Memory, Short-Term Memory & Working Memory Sensory, Short-Term & Working Psychology 355: Cognitive Psychology Instructor: John Miyamoto 04/17/2018: Lecture 04-2 Note: This Powerpoint presentation may contain macros that I wrote to help me create

More information

Emotional Intelligence and NLP for better project people Lysa

Emotional Intelligence and NLP for better project people Lysa Emotional Intelligence and NLP for better project people Lysa Morrison @lysam8 Copyright 2015 Lysa Morrison Reasons projects fail Three of the most common causes of project failure according to the National

More information

Step One for Gamblers

Step One for Gamblers Step One for Gamblers We admitted we were powerless over gambling that our lives had become unmanageable. Gamblers Anonymous (GA) (1989b, p. 38) Before beginning this exercise, please read Step One in

More information

Step 2 Challenging negative thoughts "Weeding"

Step 2 Challenging negative thoughts Weeding Managing Automatic Negative Thoughts (ANTs) Step 1 Identifying negative thoughts "ANTs" Step 2 Challenging negative thoughts "Weeding" Step 3 Planting positive thoughts 'Potting" Step1 Identifying Your

More information

Behavioral Game Theory

Behavioral Game Theory School of Computer Science, McGill University March 4, 2011 1 2 3 4 5 Outline Nash equilibria One-shot games 1 2 3 4 5 I Nash equilibria One-shot games Definition: A study of actual individual s behaviors

More information

Pearson Education Limited Edinburgh Gate Harlow Essex CM20 2JE England and Associated Companies throughout the world

Pearson Education Limited Edinburgh Gate Harlow Essex CM20 2JE England and Associated Companies throughout the world Pearson Education Limited Edinburgh Gate Harlow Essex CM20 2JE England and Associated Companies throughout the world Visit us on the World Wide Web at: www.pearsoned.co.uk Pearson Education Limited 2014

More information

Introduction to Long-Term Memory

Introduction to Long-Term Memory Introduction to Long-Term Memory Psychology 355: Cognitive Psychology Instructor: John Miyamoto 04/26/2018: Lecture 05-4 Note: This Powerpoint presentation may contain macros that I wrote to help me create

More information

Chapter 1 Review Questions

Chapter 1 Review Questions Chapter 1 Review Questions 1.1 Why is the standard economic model a good thing, and why is it a bad thing, in trying to understand economic behavior? A good economic model is simple and yet gives useful

More information

in Cognitive Neuroscience

in Cognitive Neuroscience Finish: History of Cognitive Psychology Then: Physiological Measures. in Cognitive Neuroscience Psychology 355: Cognitive Psychology Instructor: John Miyamoto 03/29/2018: Lecture 01-4 Note: This Powerpoint

More information

Psychological. Influences on Personal Probability. Chapter 17. Copyright 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.

Psychological. Influences on Personal Probability. Chapter 17. Copyright 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc. Psychological Chapter 17 Influences on Personal Probability Copyright 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc. 17.2 Equivalent Probabilities, Different Decisions Certainty Effect: people

More information

Introduction to Psychology Social Psychology Quiz

Introduction to Psychology Social Psychology Quiz MULTIPLE CHOICE: 1. We usually adapt our behavior to the demands of the social situation, and in ambiguous situations: A) We take our cues from the behavior of others. B) We will do the same thing that

More information

References. Christos A. Ioannou 2/37

References. Christos A. Ioannou 2/37 Prospect Theory References Tversky, A., and D. Kahneman: Judgement under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, Science, 185 (1974), 1124-1131. Tversky, A., and D. Kahneman: Prospect Theory: An Analysis of

More information

Introduction to Attention and Theories of Selective Attention

Introduction to Attention and Theories of Selective Attention Introduction to Attention and Theories of Selective Attention Psychology 355: Cognitive Psychology Instructor: John Miyamoto 04/09/2018: Lecture 03-1 Note: This Powerpoint presentation may contain macros

More information

The Power of Feedback

The Power of Feedback The Power of Feedback 35 Principles for Turning Feedback from Others into Personal and Professional Change By Joseph R. Folkman The Big Idea The process of review and feedback is common in most organizations.

More information

Perception Search Evaluation Choice

Perception Search Evaluation Choice Decision Making as a Process Perception of current state Recognition of problem, opportunity, source of dissatisfaction Framing of problem situation and deciding how to decide Search Search for alternatives

More information

COUNSELING PSYCHOLOGY. Spring 2004

COUNSELING PSYCHOLOGY. Spring 2004 COUNSELING PSYCHOLOGY Spring 2004 Instructor: Debra VanderVoort, Ph.D. Class, Room, & Time : Psy 377, UCB 245, W 5:00-7:45 Office: UCB 273; 974-7402 Office Hours: MW: 2:00-2:50; 4:15-4:45; 7:45-9:30 and

More information

"Consolidation theory posits that once a memory is consolidated, it remains consolidated.

Consolidation theory posits that once a memory is consolidated, it remains consolidated. "Consolidation theory posits that once a memory is consolidated, it remains consolidated. In contrast to this expectation, we will argue that memory retrieval can return a consolidated/fixed memory to

More information

Herbert A. Simon Professor, Department of Philosophy, University of Wisconsin-Madison, USA

Herbert A. Simon Professor, Department of Philosophy, University of Wisconsin-Madison, USA Health Economics, Policy and Law (2008), 3: 79 83 ª Cambridge University Press 2008 doi:10.1017/s1744133107004343 Response Valuing health properly DANIEL M. HAUSMAN* Herbert A. Simon Professor, Department

More information

CHAPTER 3: SOCIAL PERCEPTION: UNDERSTANDING OTHER PEOPLE CHAPTER OVERVIEW

CHAPTER 3: SOCIAL PERCEPTION: UNDERSTANDING OTHER PEOPLE CHAPTER OVERVIEW CHAPTER 3: SOCIAL PERCEPTION: UNDERSTANDING OTHER PEOPLE CHAPTER OVERVIEW Chapter 3 covers three main topics: impressions others make on us, attribution processes and biases, and the impressions we make

More information

THINKING, FAST AND SLOW by Daniel Kahneman

THINKING, FAST AND SLOW by Daniel Kahneman THINKING, FAST AND SLOW by Daniel Kahneman Thinking, Fast and Slow analyses two modes of thought; system one and system two. It examines emotional thought versus more logical thought and how this is evident

More information

Reasoning with Uncertainty. Reasoning with Uncertainty. Bayes Rule. Often, we want to reason from observable information to unobservable information

Reasoning with Uncertainty. Reasoning with Uncertainty. Bayes Rule. Often, we want to reason from observable information to unobservable information Reasoning with Uncertainty Reasoning with Uncertainty Often, we want to reason from observable information to unobservable information We want to calculate how our prior beliefs change given new available

More information

Family Connections Validation Skills

Family Connections Validation Skills Page 24 Definition of validation What Is Validation? (Fruzzetti) Identifying and communicating your understanding of what the other person is saying or feeling in a CLEAR way Communicate what you understand

More information

Feature Integration Theory

Feature Integration Theory Feature Integration Theory Psychology 355: Cognitive Psychology Instructor: John Miyamoto 04/12/2018: Lecture 03-4 Note: This Powerpoint presentation may contain macros that I wrote to help me create the

More information

Thinking Like a Researcher

Thinking Like a Researcher 3-1 Thinking Like a Researcher 3-3 Learning Objectives Understand... The terminology used by professional researchers employing scientific thinking. What you need to formulate a solid research hypothesis.

More information

Aim of Activity: To explore stereotypes, role models and possible occupations

Aim of Activity: To explore stereotypes, role models and possible occupations Classroom set Activity 5: Design a scientist Aim of Activity: To explore stereotypes, role models and possible occupations Activity Instruction: Draw a scientist, it can be any kind of scientist, try to

More information

Introduction to Behavioral Economics Like the subject matter of behavioral economics, this course is divided into two parts:

Introduction to Behavioral Economics Like the subject matter of behavioral economics, this course is divided into two parts: Economics 142: Behavioral Economics Spring 2008 Vincent Crawford (with very large debts to Colin Camerer of Caltech, David Laibson of Harvard, and especially Botond Koszegi and Matthew Rabin of UC Berkeley)

More information

Artificial Intelligence Programming Probability

Artificial Intelligence Programming Probability Artificial Intelligence Programming Probability Chris Brooks Department of Computer Science University of San Francisco Department of Computer Science University of San Francisco p.1/25 17-0: Uncertainty

More information

Behavioural models. Marcus Bendtsen Department of Computer and Information Science (IDA) Division for Database and Information Techniques (ADIT)

Behavioural models. Marcus Bendtsen Department of Computer and Information Science (IDA) Division for Database and Information Techniques (ADIT) Behavioural models Cognitive biases Marcus Bendtsen Department of Computer and Information Science (IDA) Division for Database and Information Techniques (ADIT) Judgement under uncertainty Humans are not

More information

Guidelines for Incorporating & Strengthening Perspective-Taking & Self-Authorship into Division of Student Life Programs

Guidelines for Incorporating & Strengthening Perspective-Taking & Self-Authorship into Division of Student Life Programs Guidelines for Incorporating & Strengthening Perspective-Taking & Self-Authorship into Division of Student Life Programs Your program or service has been identified as potentially high impact in helping

More information

Nudges: A new instrument for public policy?

Nudges: A new instrument for public policy? Nudges: A new instrument for public policy? M.C. Villeval (CNRS, GATE) - Origin: Behavioral Economics BE blends experimental evidence and psychology in a mathematical theory of strategic behavior (Camerer,

More information

Chapter 13. Social Psychology

Chapter 13. Social Psychology Social Psychology Psychology, Fifth Edition, James S. Nairne What s It For? Social Psychology Interpreting the Behavior of Others Behaving in the Presence of Others Establishing Relations With Others Social

More information

The Conference That Counts! March, 2018

The Conference That Counts! March, 2018 The Conference That Counts! March, 2018 Statistics, Definitions, & Theories The Audit Process Getting it Wrong Practice & Application Some Numbers You Should Know Objectivity Analysis Interpretation Reflection

More information

Recognizing Ambiguity

Recognizing Ambiguity Recognizing Ambiguity How Lack of Information Scares Us Mark Clements Columbia University I. Abstract In this paper, I will examine two different approaches to an experimental decision problem posed by

More information

Personality and Interests

Personality and Interests Chapter 4 Focusing on You: Personality and Interests I am a great believer in luck, and I find that the harder I work, the more I have of it. - Thomas Jefferson Learning Objectives List differences in

More information

Helping Your Asperger s Adult-Child to Eliminate Thinking Errors

Helping Your Asperger s Adult-Child to Eliminate Thinking Errors Helping Your Asperger s Adult-Child to Eliminate Thinking Errors Many people with Asperger s (AS) and High-Functioning Autism (HFA) experience thinking errors, largely due to a phenomenon called mind-blindness.

More information

The Decision Making Process

The Decision Making Process DECISION MAKING PROCESS SLIDE 1 INTRODUCTORY SLIDE For those who would like to walk students through a more traditional-looking process of Decision Making When Ethics Are in Play, the following notes and

More information

Relapse Prevention Workbook

Relapse Prevention Workbook Relapse Prevention Workbook I. First step of Relapse Prevention: A. Relapse prevention planning can start before you feel ready. Actual relapse prevention starts when you have accepted goals of learning

More information

Business Ethics Concepts & Cases

Business Ethics Concepts & Cases Business Ethics Concepts & Cases Manuel G. Velasquez Chapter One Basic Principles: Ethics and Business Ethics and Morality Ethics is the study of morality. Morality = The standards that an individual or

More information

Why do Psychologists Perform Research?

Why do Psychologists Perform Research? PSY 102 1 PSY 102 Understanding and Thinking Critically About Psychological Research Thinking critically about research means knowing the right questions to ask to assess the validity or accuracy of a

More information

COGNITIVE BIAS REPORT

COGNITIVE BIAS REPORT COGNITIVE BIAS REPORT Introduction Cognitive Bias Report I created this cognitive bias report, because I have found studying our cognitive biases to be extremely helpful in facilitating a life of freedom

More information

Social Cognitive Theory: Self-Efficacy

Social Cognitive Theory: Self-Efficacy Social Cognitive Theory: Self-Efficacy Concepts in Social Cognitive Theory: Observational Learning Reciprocal Determinism Personal Control o Delay of Gratification o Self-Efficacy o Locus of Control LP

More information

SOCI 323 Social Psychology

SOCI 323 Social Psychology SOCI 323 Session 7 Theories of Attribution Lecturer: Dr. Peace Mamle Tetteh, Department of Sociology Contact Information: ptetteh@ug.edu.gh College of Education School of Continuing and Distance Education

More information

Graphic Organizers. Compare/Contrast. 1. Different. 2. Different. Alike

Graphic Organizers. Compare/Contrast. 1. Different. 2. Different. Alike 1 Compare/Contrast When you compare and contrast people, places, objects, or ideas, you are looking for how they are alike and how they are different. One way to organize your information is to use a Venn

More information

UNIVERSITY OF DUBLIN TRINITY COLLEGE. Faculty of Arts Humanities and Social Sciences. School of Business

UNIVERSITY OF DUBLIN TRINITY COLLEGE. Faculty of Arts Humanities and Social Sciences. School of Business UNIVERSITY OF DUBLIN TRINITY COLLEGE Faculty of Arts Humanities and Social Sciences School of Business M.Sc. (Finance) Degree Examination Michaelmas 2011 Behavioural Finance Monday 12 th of December Luce

More information

Chapter 7: Cognitive Aspects of Personality. Copyright Allyn & Bacon (2009)

Chapter 7: Cognitive Aspects of Personality. Copyright Allyn & Bacon (2009) Chapter 7: Cognitive Aspects of Personality Roots in Gestalt Psychology Human beings seek meaning in their environments We organize the sensations we receive into meaningful perceptions Complex stimuli

More information

Solution-Focused Therapy

Solution-Focused Therapy Running head: SOLUTION-FOCUSED THERAPY 1 Solution-Focused Therapy Life Philosophy, School of Thought, Goals, Techniques & Theoretical Orientation Melissa Anne Morris, B.A. Texas State University School

More information

TWO WAYS OF THINKING ABOUT A RELATIONSHIP ISSUE

TWO WAYS OF THINKING ABOUT A RELATIONSHIP ISSUE TWO WAYS OF THINKING ABOUT A RELATIONSHIP ISSUE Here are two different ways of thinking about a relationship issue. Take a mild issue (4 on a scale of 10 in intensity) and view it through these two different

More information

ABSOLUTE AND RELATIVE JUDGMENTS IN RELATION TO STRENGTH OF BELIEF IN GOOD LUCK

ABSOLUTE AND RELATIVE JUDGMENTS IN RELATION TO STRENGTH OF BELIEF IN GOOD LUCK SOCIAL BEHAVIOR AND PERSONALITY, 2014, 42(7), 1105-1116 Society for Personality Research http://dx.doi.org/10.2224/sbp.2014.42.7.1105 ABSOLUTE AND RELATIVE JUDGMENTS IN RELATION TO STRENGTH OF BELIEF IN

More information

Behavioral Biases in Underwriting: Implications for Insurers

Behavioral Biases in Underwriting: Implications for Insurers Behavioral Biases in Underwriting: Implications for Insurers Jiten Voralia Swiss Re This presentation has been prepared for the Actuaries Institute 2015 ASTIN and AFIR/ERM Colloquium. The Institute Council

More information

UNIT. Experiments and the Common Cold. Biology. Unit Description. Unit Requirements

UNIT. Experiments and the Common Cold. Biology. Unit Description. Unit Requirements UNIT Biology Experiments and the Common Cold Unit Description Content: This course is designed to familiarize the student with concepts in biology and biological research. Skills: Main Ideas and Supporting

More information

Brief History of Cognitive Psychology

Brief History of Cognitive Psychology Brief History of Cognitive Psychology Psychology 355: Cognitive Psychology Instructor: John Miyamoto 03/27/2018: Lecture 01-3 Note: This Powerpoint presentation may contain macros that I wrote to help

More information

Consolidation of Memories. Memory in the Real World

Consolidation of Memories. Memory in the Real World Finish: Consolidation of Memories. Begin: Memory in the Real World Psychology 355: Cognitive Psychology Instructor: John Miyamoto 05/08/2018: Lecture 07-2 Note: This Powerpoint presentation may contain

More information

Aspects of Affective Forecasting

Aspects of Affective Forecasting Aspects of Affective Forecasting Then: The Peak-End Model of Memory for Experienced Utility Psychology 466: Judgment & Decision Making Instructor: John Miyamoto 11/21/2017: Lecture 09-1 Note: This Powerpoint

More information

Theory Building and Hypothesis Testing. POLI 205 Doing Research in Politics. Theory. Building. Hypotheses. Testing. Fall 2015

Theory Building and Hypothesis Testing. POLI 205 Doing Research in Politics. Theory. Building. Hypotheses. Testing. Fall 2015 and and Fall 2015 and The Road to Scientific Knowledge and Make your Theories Causal Think in terms of causality X causes Y Basis of causality Rules of the Road Time Ordering: The cause precedes the effect

More information

Stress Prevention in 6 Steps S T E P 3 A P P R A I S E : C O G N I T I V E R E S T R U C T U R I N G

Stress Prevention in 6 Steps S T E P 3 A P P R A I S E : C O G N I T I V E R E S T R U C T U R I N G Stress Prevention in 6 Steps S T E P 3 A P P R A I S E : C O G N I T I V E R E S T R U C T U R I N G 6 steps overview 1. Assess: Raising Awareness 2. Avoid: Unnecessary stress; problem solving 3. Appraise

More information

Final Exam: PSYC 300. Multiple Choice Items (1 point each)

Final Exam: PSYC 300. Multiple Choice Items (1 point each) Final Exam: PSYC 300 Multiple Choice Items (1 point each) 1. Which of the following is NOT one of the three fundamental features of science? a. empirical questions b. public knowledge c. mathematical equations

More information

Chapter 3: Perception and the Self in IPC 01/24/2012

Chapter 3: Perception and the Self in IPC 01/24/2012 Chapter 3: Perception and the Self in IPC 01/24/2012 Section 1: The Self in Interpersonal Communication Self Concept Your self concept develops from at least four sources: Others Images: Cooley s concept

More information

fmri: What Does It Measure?

fmri: What Does It Measure? fmri: What Does It Measure? Psychology 355: Cognitive Psychology Instructor: John Miyamoto 04/02/2018: Lecture 02-1 Note: This Powerpoint presentation may contain macros that I wrote to help me create

More information

Desirability Bias: Do Desires Influence Expectations? It Depends on How You Ask.

Desirability Bias: Do Desires Influence Expectations? It Depends on How You Ask. University of Iowa Honors Theses University of Iowa Honors Program Spring 2018 Desirability Bias: Do Desires Influence Expectations? It Depends on How You Ask. Mark Biangmano Follow this and additional

More information

Simpson s paradox (or reversal paradox)

Simpson s paradox (or reversal paradox) Fallacy of division It is the opposite of the fallacy of composition. It occurs when it is automatically presumed that what is true at a larger scale (the global level) is true at some smaller scale (the

More information

The Scientific Method

The Scientific Method The Scientific Method Prelab Thoroughly explore the website Understanding Science: How Science Really Works at http://undsci.berkeley.edu. Answer the following five questions based on your textbook and

More information

Critical Thinking Assessment at MCC. How are we doing?

Critical Thinking Assessment at MCC. How are we doing? Critical Thinking Assessment at MCC How are we doing? Prepared by Maura McCool, M.S. Office of Research, Evaluation and Assessment Metropolitan Community Colleges Fall 2003 1 General Education Assessment

More information

Mental capacity and mental illness

Mental capacity and mental illness Mental capacity and mental illness The Mental Capacity Act 2005 (MCA) Mental capacity is the ability to make your own decisions. If you lose mental capacity the Mental Capacity Act 2005 (MCA) protects

More information

Strategic Decision Making. Steven R. Van Hook, PhD

Strategic Decision Making. Steven R. Van Hook, PhD Strategic Decision Making Steven R. Van Hook, PhD Reference Textbooks Judgment in Managerial Decision Making, 8th Edition, by Max Bazerman and Don Moore. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 2012. ISBN: 1118065700

More information

What is Experimental Economics? ECO663 Experimental Economics. Paul Samuelson once said. von Neumann and Morgenstern. Sidney Siegel 10/15/2016

What is Experimental Economics? ECO663 Experimental Economics. Paul Samuelson once said. von Neumann and Morgenstern. Sidney Siegel 10/15/2016 What is Experimental Economics? The use of experimental methods to answer economic questions in various areas of study. ECO663 Experimental Economics Instructor Shihomi Ara-Aksoy Individual Choice Behavior

More information

5. is the process of moving from the specific to the general. a. Deduction

5. is the process of moving from the specific to the general. a. Deduction Applied Social Psychology Understanding and Addressing Social and Practical Problems 3rd Edition Gruman Test Bank Full Download: https://testbanklive.com/download/applied-social-psychology-understanding-and-addressing-social-and-practical-p

More information

"Games and the Good" Strategy

Games and the Good Strategy "Games and the Good" Hurka!1 Strategy Hurka argues that game-playing is an intrinsic good! He thinks game-playing as an intrinsic good is a "modern view value"! Hurka says he will "defend the value only

More information

Depression: Dealing with unhelpful thoughts

Depression: Dealing with unhelpful thoughts Depression: Dealing with unhelpful thoughts Macquarie University Counselling Service, Campus Wellbeing Level 2 Lincoln Building C8A 9850 7497 counselling@mq.edu.au http://www.campuslife.mq.edu.au/campus-wellbeing/counselling

More information

Emotional Intelligence of dealing with People and Situations. Instructor Bill Friel City of Ormond Beach

Emotional Intelligence of dealing with People and Situations. Instructor Bill Friel City of Ormond Beach Emotional Intelligence of dealing with People and Situations Instructor Bill Friel City of Ormond Beach Bill.Friel@ormondbeach.org Intrapersonal Competencies Self-awareness Means really knowing yourself

More information

Motivational Interviewing

Motivational Interviewing Motivational Interviewing By: Tonia Stott, PhD What is Motivational Interviewing? A client-centered, directive method for enhancing intrinsic motivation to change by exploring and resolving ambivalence

More information

CS324-Artificial Intelligence

CS324-Artificial Intelligence CS324-Artificial Intelligence Lecture 3: Intelligent Agents Waheed Noor Computer Science and Information Technology, University of Balochistan, Quetta, Pakistan Waheed Noor (CS&IT, UoB, Quetta) CS324-Artificial

More information

Behind the Scenes of Decision Making:

Behind the Scenes of Decision Making: Behind the Scenes of Decision Making: Heuristics, Black Swans and Invisible Gorillas Prof Claudine Storbeck & Dr Bianca Birdsey The Centre for Deaf Studies HI HOPES Early Intervention Programme University

More information

UNIT II: RESEARCH METHODS

UNIT II: RESEARCH METHODS THINKING CRITICALLY WITH PSYCHOLOGICAL SCIENCE UNIT II: RESEARCH METHODS Module 4: The Need for Psychological Science Module 5: Scientific Method and Description Module 6: Correlation and Experimentation

More information

Psychotherapy. A Cognitive Approach. Mark J. Berber, MD

Psychotherapy. A Cognitive Approach. Mark J. Berber, MD Mark J. Berber, MD Dr. Mark Berber has written an excellent brief approach to psychotherapy. If you use Dr. Berber s booklet you can appreciably help yourself with your thinking and feeling problems...and

More information

Handout: Instructions for 1-page proposal (including a sample)

Handout: Instructions for 1-page proposal (including a sample) 15.301/310, Managerial Psychology Prof. Dan Ariely Recitation 1 (Given by Head TA) Handout: Instructions for 1-page proposal (including a sample) Contact info given: email, phone, office Self description

More information

t-test for r Copyright 2000 Tom Malloy. All rights reserved

t-test for r Copyright 2000 Tom Malloy. All rights reserved t-test for r Copyright 2000 Tom Malloy. All rights reserved This is the text of the in-class lecture which accompanied the Authorware visual graphics on this topic. You may print this text out and use

More information

1) Principle of Proactivity

1) Principle of Proactivity 1) Principle of Proactivity Principle of proactivity teaches us that we can influence our life to a much greater extend than we usually think. It even states that we are the cause of majority of things

More information

PSYCHOLOGY : JUDGMENT AND DECISION MAKING

PSYCHOLOGY : JUDGMENT AND DECISION MAKING PSYCHOLOGY 4136-100: JUDGMENT AND DECISION MAKING http://psych.colorado.edu/~vanboven/teaching/psyc4136/psyc4136.html Monday, 1:00-3:30, Muenzinger D156B Instructor Assistant Dr. Leaf Van Boven Jordan

More information

Behavioral Finance 1-1. Chapter 5 Heuristics and Biases

Behavioral Finance 1-1. Chapter 5 Heuristics and Biases Behavioral Finance 1-1 Chapter 5 Heuristics and Biases 1 Introduction 1-2 This chapter focuses on how people make decisions with limited time and information in a world of uncertainty. Perception and memory

More information

Dr Anita Rose Director of Clinical Service: Consultant in Neuropsychology & Rehabilitation

Dr Anita Rose Director of Clinical Service: Consultant in Neuropsychology & Rehabilitation Dr Anita Rose Director of Clinical Service: Consultant in Neuropsychology & Rehabilitation Hope this finishes soon as I am hungry Did I lock my car when I left it in the car park? Will today finish in

More information