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1 Toward a Common Metric for Risk Assessment across Diverse Factors in Fatigue Risk Management Systems: Quantifying Human Performance in Terms of Signal-to-Noise Ratio Hans P.A. Van Dongen, Ph.D. Director, Sleep and Performance Research Center Professor, Elson S. Floyd College of Medicine Washington State University Spokane

2 A Typical Problem in Fatigue Risk Management: Assessing the System-Wide Risk from Fatigue in Coupled Physical and Cyber Infrastructures in 24/7 Operations with Humans in the Loop Decision graph

3 frequency A Key Aspect of Fatigue Risk from Sleep-Deprived Humans in the Loop: Instability in Sustained Attention response reaction time (ms) response reaction time (ms) Psychomotor Vigilance Test 2 5 h awake (13:) h awake (13:) time on task (s) time time on on task (s) (min) Psychomotor Vigilance Test (PVT) Lapse threshold (5 ms) Baseline Sleep deprivation Doran SM, Van Dongen HPA, Dinges DF. Arch Ital Biol 21; 139: Satterfield BC, Van Dongen HPA. Fatigue Biomed Health Behav 213; 1: response time (ms)

4 frequency Sleep Deprivation Degrades Cognitive Processing in Neuronal Circuits Involved in Task Performance frequency diffusion diffusion model model simulations for simulations PVT for responses the PVT BLC SD reaction time (ms) Diffusion Decision Model ӿ ӿ ӿ ӿ ӿ ӿ ӿ ӿ ӿ ӿ ӿ ӿ ӿ ӿ Numerosity Numerosity Discrimination Discrimination a Ratcliff R, Van Dongen HPA. Psychon Bull Rev, 29; 16(4): b Ratcliff R, Van Dongen HPA. PNAS, 211; 18:

5 Sleep Deprivation Degrades Cognitive Processing in Neuronal Circuits Involved in Task Performance Diffusion Decision Model ӿ ӿ ӿ ӿ ӿ ӿ ӿ ӿ ӿ ӿ ӿ ӿ ӿ ӿ Numerosity Discrimination Numerosity Discrimination Drift Rate SD-easy SD-medium SD-harder C-easy C-medium C-harder a.1. BL SD/C REC BL SD REC Ratcliff R, Van Dongen HPA. Psychon Bull Rev, 29; 16(4): b Ratcliff R, Van Dongen HPA. PNAS, 211; 18:

6 Sleep Deprivation Degrades Cognitive Processing in Neuronal Circuits Involved in Task Performance ӿ ӿ ӿ ӿ ӿ ӿ ӿ ӿ ӿ ӿ ӿ ӿ ӿ ӿ SD-easy Diffusion Decision Model Numerosity Discrimination Numerosity Discrimination Drift Rate SD-medium SD-harder C-easy C-medium C-harder a.1. BL SD/C REC BL SD REC Ratcliff R, Van Dongen HPA. Psychon Bull Rev, 29; 16(4): b Ratcliff R, Van Dongen HPA. PNAS, 211; 18:

7 Sleep Deprivation Degrades Cognitive Processing in Neuronal Circuits Involved in Task Performance Fatigue may make any cognitive processing harder and less reliable Diffusion Decision Model ӿ ӿ ӿ ӿ ӿ ӿ ӿ ӿ ӿ ӿ ӿ ӿ ӿ ӿ Numerosity Discrimination Numerosity Discrimination Drift Rate SD-easy SD-medium SD-harder C-easy C-medium C-harder a.1. BL SD/C REC BL SD REC Ratcliff R, Van Dongen HPA. Psychon Bull Rev, 29; 16(4): b Ratcliff R, Van Dongen HPA. PNAS, 211; 18:

8 A Diffusion Decision Model-Based Metric of the Fidelity of Information Processing: PVT Signal to Noise Ratio (SNR) SNR N N i1 w S N N N wi Si wi wis i i i i i 2 i 2 1 S i = 1 / (RT i C), w i = 1 / (r 2 S i + 1), C = 1 ms, r 2 = 196 ms, RT i is the ith response time (in ms), and N is the number of PVT stimuli Chavali VP, Riedy SM, Van Dongen HPA. Sleep, 217, in press. 8

9 Impact of Sleep Deprivation on PVT SNR in Laboratory Studies SNR Medium effect size ( f 2 =.34) Time Awake (h) Chavali VP, Riedy SM, Van Dongen HPA. Sleep, 217, in press. 9

10 Impact of Sleep Deprivation on PVT SNR in Laboratory Studies PVT testing with chin rest SNR Time Awake (h) Chavali VP, Riedy SM, Van Dongen HPA. Sleep, 217, in press. 1

11 A Baseline-Invariant Version of the PVT SNR Metric db LSNR = 1 log 1 (SNR) LSNR (db) 13-3 db 11 Large effect size ( f 2 =.4) db Time Awake (h) Chavali VP, Riedy SM, Van Dongen HPA. Sleep, 217, in press. 11

12 Conclusions The LSNR metric for the PVT quantifies the fidelity of information processing LSNR has high sensitivity to fatigue, high degree of statistical normality, and absence of floor and ceiling effects A given change in LSNR always has the same meaning regardless of absolute values a reduction in LSNR of 3 units (i.e., a 3 db change) represents a 5% drop in the fidelity of information regardless of the starting point The SNR baseline value may therefore be freely chosen to anchor the metric ( db point), which is helpful for mathematical models of fatigue LSNR provides a basis for calculations of the overall reliability of partially automated operational systems with sleep-deprived humans in the loop As such, LSNR may be a useful tool for systems-integrated fatigue risk management Chavali VP, Riedy SM, Van Dongen HPA. Sleep, 217, in press. 12

13 Acknowledgments Research supported by: Office of Naval Research Air Force Office of Scientific Research Army Medical Research and Materiel Command National Institutes of Health NASA Headquarters Department of Defense US Naval Medical Logistics Command Naval Postgraduate School US Army Research Office Department of Transportation Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration Federal Aviation Administration Transportation Research Board Regional Airline Association FedEx Express Pulsar Informatics Institutes for Behavior Resources State of Washington

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