Smoke-free laws are easy. Support rarely differs across party lines.

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3 Smoke-free laws are easy. Support rarely differs across party lines. Avoid making it a partisan or ideological issue. The biggest challenge is downscale men and even a solid majority of that group supports it. Even more than 60% of strong Tea Party supporters back it. The rights of customers and employees to breathe clean air trumps that of smokers to smoke and owners to allow smoking.

4 Smoke-free laws are easy. Support rarely differs across party lines. The right to breathe clean air in public places and at work is a very powerful message. Protection from exposure to second hand smoke is also powerful. Public opinion is more divided on e-cigarettes.

5 South Dakota Statewide Survey ~ November 9-12, As you may know, three years ago in 2010, South Dakota voters approved a law requiring smoke-free workplaces in the state. Now that the law has been in effect for three years, do you approve or disapprove of South Dakota s smoke-free workplace law? Disapprove 4% Disapprove 10% Overall Total Approve: 85% Total Disapprove: 14% An overwhelming majority strongly supports the 2010 statewide indoor smoking ban. Don't Know 1% By Party +81% +61% +71% 90% 80% 85% Approve 16% Approve 69% 9% Total GOP (44%) Total Approve 19% Lean/Ind (21%) Total Disapprove 14% Total Democrat (31%)

6 A large majority of the electorate favor the law prohibiting smoking inside restaurants and bars. As you may know, in January of 2010 a statewide law went into effect that prohibits smoking inside restaurants and bars. Would you say that you favor or oppose this law? Total Favor: 74% Total Oppose: 25%* Oppose 15% DK/Ref 2% Oppose 9% Favor 13% Favor 61% *Denotes Rounding NC Statewide Tobacco Survey ~ February

7 7 An overwhelming majority supports the 2010 indoor workplace smoking ban. As you may know, three years ago in 2010, a law requiring smoke-free indoor workplaces and public places in the state was passed. Now that the law has been in effect for three years, do you approve or disapprove of Kansas smoke-free law? Overall Total Approve: 86% Total Disapprove: 12% +55% +76% By Ideology +79% +83% Disapprove 3% Disapprove 9% Don't Know 1% Refused 1% 76% 88% 89% 91% Approve 10% 21% 12% 10% 8% Approve 76% Very Conservative (18%) Conservative (21%) Moderate (39%) Liberal (19%) Total Approve Total Disapprove

8 NC Statewide Tobacco Survey ~ February The smoke-free law is popular across the partisan divide. Smoke-Free Law by Party +37% +44% +58% 68% 71% 78% 31% 27% 20% GOP (32%) Total Favor Ind (19%) Total Oppose Dem (44%)

9 NC Statewide Tobacco Survey ~ February Voters of all political ideologies strongly back the smoke-free law. Smoke-Free Law by Ideology +39% +56% +53% +51% 69% 78% 75% 75% 30% 22% 22% 24% Very Conservative (22%) Smwt Conservative (23%) Moderate (36%) Liberal (15%) Total Favor Total Oppose

10 NC Statewide Tobacco Survey ~ February Less educated men are the most resistant to the law, but more than 60% still favor it. Smoke-Free Law by Gender/Education +28% +51% +49% +78% 89% 74% 74% 63% 35% 23% 25% 11% Men w/o Deg (28%) Men w/ Deg (20%) Women w/o Deg (30%) Women w/ Deg (22%) Total Favor Total Oppose

11 NC Statewide Tobacco Survey ~ February A majority of Tea Party supporters back the smoke-free law. Smoke-Free Law by Tea Party Image +23% +73% +52% 86% 75% 61% 38% 13% 23% Favorable (26%) Total Favor Unfavorable (22%) Total Oppose No Opinion (51%)

12 MS Statewide Smoke-Free Law Baseline~ January 10 and 12, A smoke-free law is supported widely among those who back the Tea Party and those who view the movement negatively. Smoke-Free Law by Tea Party Support +34% +34% +60% +36% 80% 66% 67% 66% 32% 33% 20% 30% Favorable (18%) Favorable (10%) Total Unfavorable (16%) No Opinion (56%) Total Favor Total Oppose

13 Voters across the political spectrum would support a candidate in favor of a smoke-free law. Would you be more likely or less likely to support a candidate for political office here in Mississippi if they supported a law that would prohibit smoking in indoor public places, including workplaces, public buildings, offices, casinos, restaurants, and bars? Overall By Party Total More Likely: 63% Total Less Likely: 22% Much Less Likely 13% No Difference 13% Refused 2% Much More Likely 36% +48% +37% +38% 65% 65% 59% 27% 22% 17% Less Likely 9% More Likely 27% GOP (44%) Independent (13%) Total More Likely Democrat (39%) Total Less Likely MS Statewide Smoke-Free Law Baseline~ January 10 and 12,

14 NC Statewide Tobacco Survey ~ February The rights of customers and employees to breathe clean air trump the rights of smokers and business owners. Please indicate which ONE of the following you think is more important: 77% 19% The rights of customers and employees to breathe clean air in restaurants and bars or The rights of smokers to smoke and business owners to allow smoking inside restaurants and bars

15 Bryan, Texas American Heart Association Survey April 22-25, Voters say that everybody should have the right to breathe clean air. I am going to read you two points of view about the smoke-free law, and please tell me which point of view comes closest to your own opinion... 61% 32% Supporters say that everybody has the right to breathe clean air without the dangers of secondhand smoke. They say secondhand smoke contains more than four thousand chemicals, including dangerous cancer-causing substances like formaldehyde and arsenic. They say that this law will protect everyone from dangerous health effects by making all workplaces smoke-free. while Opponents say that business owners should have the right to decide whether smoking should be allowed in their restaurants and bars. They say that this law goes too far, and banning smoking will hurt the city s small business owners. They also say that a complete smoking ban will cause restaurants and bars to close, costing jobs and hurting our city s economy.

16 Bryan, Texas American Heart Association Survey April 22-25, Republicans and Independents are more likely to say that business owners should have the right to decide. By Party +19% +15% +27% +53% +42% 75% 70% 57% 53% 57% 38% 38% 30% 22% 28% Base GOP (25%) Soft/Lean GOP (18%) Independent (24%) Soft/Lean Democrat (15%) Base Democrat (15%) Right to Breathe Clean Air Owners Should Decide

17 The right to breathe clean air in public/at work is the strongest message for the smoke-free law. Smoke-Free Law Messages Ranked by % Very Convincing Everyone has the right to breathe clean air in public places and at work. 59% 83% Workers should not have to choose between their health and a paycheck. 52% 77% People should be able to go out and enjoy bars and restaurants without being forced to breathe dangerous secondhand smoke, and without smelling like smoke at the end of the night. The law will protect everyone from secondhand smoke, which is a proven cause of serious health problems. Exposure to secondhand smoke increases the risk of lung cancer and heart disease - even in non-smokers. This law will protect everyone from secondhand smoke, which contains more than 60 cancer causing chemicals like formaldehyde, arsenic and lead. The American Cancer Society, American Heart Association and American Lung Association support the law because it protects everyone from the dangers of secondhand smoke. Smoking costs Kentucky one and a half billion dollars each year in additional health care costs. A smoke-free law will improve health and help reduce that financial burden. Very Convincing Kentucky Statewide Tobacco Survey Smwt Convincing 49% 47% 46% 45% 40% 71% 77% 73% 77% 70% 17

18 MS Statewide Smoke-Free Law Baseline~ January 10 and 12, Messages in favor of a smoke-free law are received well by a strong majority of people. Ranked by % Agree (General Electorate) All workers in Mississippi should be protected from 73% 88% exposure to secondhand smoke in the workplace. 6% 12% Casinos, restaurants and bars would be healthier for 71% 87%* employees and customers if they were smoke-free. 7% 13% It would be really nice to go out and enjoy casinos, restaurants and bars in Mississippi without smelling like cigarette smoke when you get home. 9% 12%* 71% 85% States across the country are passing laws making all workplaces smoke-free, its time for Mississippi to do the same. 10% 18% 67% 81% Agree Total Agree Disagree Total Disagree *Denotes Rounding

19 Voters are divided on whether to extend the indoor smoking ban to electronic cigarettes. Electronic cigarettes, or e-cigarettes, are being sold as an alternative to traditional cigarettes. E-cigarettes are typically battery-operated devices that allow the user to inhale a vapor produced from cartridges filled with nicotine, flavoring agents, propylene glycol, and/or other constituents. Would you favor or oppose a proposal that would prohibit smoking of e-cigarettes in indoor workplaces and public places? Overall By Party Total Favor: 46%* Total Oppose: 46%* +3% -4% +2% Don't Know 6%* Oppose 29% Favor 30% 51% 47% 47% 47% 44% 45% Oppose 18% *Denotes Rounding Favor 17% Total GOP (44%) Total Favor Lean/Ind (21%) Total Oppose Total Democrat (31%) South Dakota Statewide Survey ~ November 9-12,

20 MS Statewide Smoke-Free Law Baseline~ January 10 and 12,

21 Tobacco taxes are far more problematic: Support/opposition is more partisan, although it is not overwhelming partisan. We need to win or tie with Independents to win. We need approximately 35-40% of Republicans to support it, depending. Higher educated voters are key especially college graduates.

22 Tobacco taxes are far more problematic: The messages to defeat tobacco tax increases are simpler and more direct. They are designed to inspire caution and uncertainty in voters. Caution and uncertainty means a no vote. One challenge is that Republicans and Democrats prefer different uses. GOPers want tax cuts, while Democrats want spending increases. Republican support drops off as the tax increase amount goes up.

23 Tobacco taxes are far more problematic: Revenue should be targeted to health policy, under the message that it helps cover the health care costs we all pay through taxes/insurance to treat smokingrelated diseases. Money that goes to the general fund is viewed by voters as going into a black hole.

24 2012 Missouri Proposition B Results Shall Missouri law be amended to: create the Health and Education Trust Fund with proceeds of a tax of $ per cigarette and 25% of the manufacturer's invoice price for roll-your-own tobacco and 15% for other tobacco products; use Fund proceeds to reduce and prevent tobacco use and for elementary, secondary, college, and university public school funding; and increase the amount that certain tobacco product manufacturers must maintain in their escrow accounts, to pay judgments or settlements, before any funds in escrow can be refunded to the tobacco product manufacturer and create bonding requirements for these manufacturers? No 50.8% Yes 49.2% Yes 1,321, % No 1,362, % -40,419

25 Independents were the key deciders, because Republicans and Democrats cancelled each other out. Proposition B Ballot by Party 61% 54% 58% 64% 58% 37% 36% 36% 31% 35% Base Republican (20%) Soft Republican (19%) Yes, in favor Independent (19%) No, against Soft Democrat (18%) Base Democrat (22%) Missouri Statewide Post-Elect Survey Slide 25

26 Voters without a college degree opposed the increase, while college graduates supported it. Proposition B Ballot by Education Level 65% 66% 31% 44% 51% 53% 39% 26% High School or Less (30%) Some College/ Technical (27%) Yes, in favor College Graduate (26%) No, against Post-Graduate (17%) Missouri Statewide Post-Elect Survey Slide 26

27 Republicans and Independents agreed the most accurate message was revenue would be diverted. Total Accurate by Party (CORE) Republican Independent Democrat 8,600 Missouri kids become daily smokers each year. Are you ready to vote yes on Proposition B to create a brighter future for Missouri kids by raising our lowest in the nation tobacco tax? 51% 50% 71% Proposition B will dedicate $223 million in new revenue to Missouri public schools. 46% 42% 66% Proposition B includes safeguards to ensure that revenue is spent as voters intend. 47% 39% 57% Proposition B will save lives. 41% 40% 58% Education money from Proposition B will be diverted. Remember the broken funding promises that came with the lottery and casinos. Missouri taxpayers are subsidizing the costs of tobacco use in Missouri. Medicaid costs associated with tobacco use cost five hundred thirty two million dollars each year. 61% 63% 54% 51% 49% 63% A 760% Tax Increase! Enough is Enough. 56% 57% 44% Proposition B will fund Obamacare. 36% 29% 24% Missouri Statewide Post-Elect Survey Slide 27

28 Nearly three in four voters favor the proposed $1.05 tobacco tax increase. Thinking some more about some of these proposals, would you favor or oppose a one dollar and five cents per pack increase in the state tobacco tax, with part of the revenue dedicated to a program to reduce tobacco use, particularly among kids, and the rest of the revenue dedicated to funding health care programs in the state? Total Favor: 73%* Total Oppose: 25% Oppose 16% Don't Know 3%* Oppose 9% Favor 54% *Denotes Rounding Favor 18% Louisiana Statewide Survey ~ April 7-9,

29 Louisiana Statewide Survey ~ April 7-9, There is overwhelming bipartisan support for increasing the state tobacco tax by $1.05. By Party +49% +52% +56% +45% +45% 73% 75% 78% 70% 72% 24% 23% 22% 25% 27% Base GOP (24%) Soft GOP (8%) Lean/ Independent (19%) Soft Democrat (14%) Base Democrat (31%) Total Favor Total Oppose

30 Louisiana Statewide Survey ~ April 7-9, Voters of all ideological stripes favor the tobacco tax increase. By Ideology +37% +49% +60% +49% +37% 68% 74% 79% 74% 68% 31% 25% 19% 25% 31% Very Conservative (25%) Conservative (24%) Moderate (35%) Liberal (12%) Conservative Democrat (18%) Total Favor Total Oppose

31 While both plans are very popular, using tobacco tax revenue for education tested slightly stronger with voters. Would you favor or oppose a proposal that would raise the state tobacco tax and use the revenue to help fund Kindergarten through Twelfth Grade education? ^ Total Favor: 76% Total Oppose: 22% Oppose 9% Oppose 13% Don't Know 2%* Would you favor or oppose a proposal that would raise the state tobacco tax and use the revenue to reduce the property tax? ^^ Oppose 9% Oppose 17% Don't Know 3% Total Favor: 71% Total Oppose: 26% Favor 49% Favor 22% Favor 54% * Denotes Rounding, ^Split Sample A, N=253, ^^Split Sample B, N=247 Favor 22% 31

32 Dems and Independents are more likely to support using tax revenue for education; GOPers for property taxes. By Party K % +64% +68% 72% 82% 82% 28% 18% 14% +66% +34% +24% Property Taxes 82% 64% 61% 16% 30% 37% *Split Sample Republican (48%) Total Favor Independent (19%) Total Oppose Democrat (29%) 32

33 Nebraskans strongly favor a tobacco tax hike that would lead to lower property taxes. Would you favor or oppose a proposal that would raise the state tobacco tax and use the revenue to help reduce property taxes? Total Favor : 68% Total Oppose: 29%* Overall By Party +30% +46% +24% +52% +57% Oppose 11% Oppose 19% Don't Know 2% Favor 49% 65% 35% 71% 25% 61% 37% 75% 76% 23% 19% Favor 19% * Denotes Rounding Base GOP (26%) Soft GOP (22%) Total Favor Independent (18%) Soft Democrat (15%) Total Oppose Base Democrat (17%) Nebraska Statewide Survey ~ October 6-8,

34 Support for a $1 per pack tobacco has bipartisan support. Would you favor or oppose a one dollar per pack increase in the state tobacco tax, plus an equivalent increase for other tobacco products like cigars and chewing tobacco, with the revenue dedicated to reducing property taxes and funding health care and wellness programs, including programs to prevent kids from smoking and helping smokers quit? Total Favor: 68% Total Oppose: 31% Oppose 22% Oppose 9% Overall Don't Know 1% By Party +36% +47% +12% +50% +68% 83% 73% 75% 62% 56% 44% 36% 26% 25% 15% Favor 16% Favor 52% Base GOP (26%) Soft GOP (22%) Independent (18%) Total Favor Soft Democrat (15%) Base Democrat (17%) Nebraska Statewide Survey ~ October 6-8,

35 The majority still supports a $1.35 tobacco tax increase, but Independents and base GOPers are in narrow opposition. Would you favor or oppose a one dollar and thirty five cent per pack increase in the state tobacco tax, plus an equivalent increase for other tobacco products like cigars and chewing tobacco, with the revenue dedicated to reducing property taxes and funding health care and wellness programs, including programs to prevent kids from smoking and helping smokers quit? Overall By Party Total Favor: 55% Total Oppose: 44%* -5% +13% -3% +18% +43% Oppose 31% Favor 39% 52% 47% 56% 43% 48% 51% 59% 41% 71% 28% Oppose 14% *Denotes Rounding Favor 16% Base GOP (26%) Soft GOP (22%) Total Favor Independent (18%) Soft Democrat (15%) Total Oppose Base Democrat (17%) Nebraska Statewide Survey ~ October 6-8,

36 Independents and Republicans like the tobacco tax increase more once they hear the idea of using it to offset property taxes. And, would you be more likely or less likely to support an increase in the state tobacco tax if you learned that part of the additional tax revenue would go to reducing property taxes? Overall By Party Total More Likely: 70% Total Less Likely: 28%* +39% +56% +24% +44% +59% Much Less Likely 16% Less Likely 11% Don't Know 2% Refused 1% Much More Likely 40% 68% 77% 60% 71% 79% 29% 21% 36% 27% 20% *Denotes Rounding More Likely 30% Base GOP (26%) Soft GOP (22%) Independent (18%) Total More Likely Soft Democrat (15%) Total Less Likely Base Democrat (17%) Nebraska Statewide Survey ~ October 6-8,

37 Louisiana Statewide Survey ~ April 7-9, By more than two-to-one, Louisianans say the tobacco tax increase would be fair. Thinking some more about an increase in the state tobacco tax, which of the following statements do you most agree with 65% 29% Some people say that a tobacco tax increase is fair because it helps cover the health care costs we all pay through higher taxes and higher insurance premiums to treat diseases caused by smoking. while Other people say that a tobacco tax increase is unfair to smokers because it forces one small group of people to pay for government programs we all use. Agree/ Unfair 20% Not So Agree/ Unfair 9% Not So Agree/ Fair 10% Don't Know 5% Refused 1% Agree/ Fair 55%

38 Louisiana Statewide Survey ~ April 7-9, Cancer research, reducing youth tobacco use, and Medicaid health care are seen as the best ways to spend new revenue. If Louisiana were to raise its tobacco tax, there are a number of different ways to use the additional revenue. I am going to read a list of proposals on how this revenue could be spent. After I read each one, please tell me whether you favor or oppose spending a significant portion of the revenue from a tobacco tax increase on that proposal. Ranked by % Favor Funding cancer research 68% 6% 12% 86%* Funding for programs to reduce tobacco use among kids 59% 13% 20% 80% Funding Medicaid health care services for low income residents 47% 15% 23% 76% Favor Total Favor Oppose Total Oppose *Denotes Rounding

39 Reducing the state income tax and funding programs through the general fund receive mixed responses. Ranked by % Favor Preventing cuts to health care programs 47% 21% 30% 68% Reducing the state budget shortfall 36% 20% 34% 62% Helping reduce or eliminate the state income tax as part of tax reform 31% 34% 50%* 47% Funding programs through the state s general fund 18% 33% 46% 48% *Denotes Rounding Favor Total Favor Oppose Total Oppose Louisiana Statewide Survey ~ April 7-9,

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