Global Propylene Market Outlook: In Excess for How Long?
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1 FOURTH ANNUAL ASIA CHEMICAL CONFERENCE 216 Global Propylene Market Outlook: In Excess for How Long? Presentation 1 November 216 ihsmarkit.com Jinsu Yim, Director, , jinsu.yim@ihsmarkit.com
2 Steam Cracker Contents 216 Refinery 58 Million tons 38 Million tons Metathesis 5 Million tons Others 1 Million tons PDH 119 Million tons CTO/MTO 11Million tons 6 Million tons 2
3 P/E Ratio Historical Low Propylene/Ethylene Ratio Global P/E Ratio 1.5 Propylene Tighter than Ethylene 1..5 Ethylene Tighter than Propylene NAM Contract Price NEA Spot Price SEA Spot Price WEP Contract Price 3
4 PDH and CTO lead unconventional production World: 216 PG/CG Propylene Prod. by Feedstock FCC Splitters 29% Dehydro 9% Metathesis 4% Olefin Cracking.4% World: 221 PG/CG Propylene Prod. by Feedstock FCC Splitters 25% Dehydro 13% Metathesis 4% Olefin Cracking 1% Stm. Crackers 5% Methanol to Olefins 2% 22 MM tons 36 MM tons Methanol to Propylene.2% 216 On-Purpose Capacity 221 Others On- Purpose.5% Coal to Olefins 2% Coal to Propylene 1% HS FCC 3% Production = 98.1 Million Metric Tons Stm. Crackers 44% Others On- Purpose 1% Production = Million Metric Tons Methanol to Olefins 2% Methanol to Propylene 1% Coal to Olefins 4% Coal to Propylene 1% HS FCC 4% 4
5 Million Metric Tons Per Year Slower Growth From Conventional Production Others 18% Metathes is 19% CTO/ CTP 13% MTO/ MTP 9% PDH 41% Others 15% Metathes is 15% PDH 42% CTO/ CTP 19% MTO/ MTP 9% Total Propylene Capacity = 22 Million Metric Tons Per Year Total Propylene Capacity = 36 Million Metric Tons Per Year Refinery/ FCC Steam Cracker 5
6 Dollars Per Metric Ton Propylene prices to stay close for all regions Global Propylene Spot Prices 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 NEA CFR NAM Pipeline WEP CIF 6
7 Million Metric Tons Operating Rate World Propylene Supply Remains Long World: PG/CG Propylene Supply & Demand % 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% Demand Production Total Capacity Operating Rate (% AAGR = IHS Markit
8 Million Metric Tons Operating Rate Asia Propylene Supply Changes Short to Balance Asia Propylene Supply/Demand Balance 1 1% % 8% 7% 6% 5% Production Demand Total Capacity Operating Rate 8
9 Million Metric Tons Per Year On-purpose Capacity Dependence on On-Purpose Production Increase Total NE Asia Propylene Capacity 75 55% % 33% 22% 11% % NEA On-purpose CHI On-purpose KOS On-purpose Total Capacity 9
10 Million Metric Tons NE Asia Will Be Self-sufficient for Propylene Monomer Propylene Monomer Trade JAP SKOR TAI CHI Export Import 1
11 Propylene Equivalent Trade Flow West Europe 1, , ,95 3,813 3,681 Northeast Asia -156 North America 2,366-3,62-2, South America ,432 Middle East Others* -2,413 Southeast Asia *Others: Africa, Indian Sub., CIS & Baltic, Central Europe -4,8 11
12 China Propylene Rapidly Changes 12
13 More Private Company Owns Propylene Capacities China C3 Ownership Changes from 21 to Shenhua 1% Others 25% Sinopec 45% Others 52% Sinopec 24% CNOOC 2% PetroChina 18% PetroChina 27% Shenhua 4% CNOOC 2% 13
14 Million Metric Tons Percentage Dependence on Alternate Technologies for Propylene Production to Increase China s Million Metric Propylene Tons Capacity Percent, % Steam Crackers Refinery On Purpose On Purpose % of Total Capacity 14
15 US Dollar Per metric Ton Abundant Shale Gas In North America Boost PDH in Asia Propane FOB Mont Belview vs CFR NEA 1,2 1, US Dollar Per metric Ton Gap Propane CFR NEA Propane FOB Mont Belview 15
16 Million Metric Tons Propane import increased in line with PDH Propane import in China Total import US 16
17 Million Metric Tons Coal/Methanol based Propylene Will Contribute More Than 25 Percent in China CTO/MTO Projects in China Completed Projects (by end 216) CTO/CTP: 11 MTO/MTP: 15 Upcoming Projects (by end 221) CTO/CTP: 1 MTO/MTP: CTO CTP MTO MTP 17
18 PDH Projects in China Project Owner Location Capacity kt/a Start Up Operating 1 Bohai Chemical Tianjin 5,8 Oct/213 2 Zhejiang Satellite PC I Pinghu, Zhejiang Aug/214 3 Ningbo Haiyue Ningbo, Zhejiang Sep/214 4 Shaoxing Sanjin Shaoxing, Zhejiang Sept/214 5 Shandong Chambroad Binzhou, Shandong April/215 6 Donghua Energy Co., Ltd-Yangzijiang I Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu May/215 7 Yantai Wanhua Yantai, Shandong Aug/215 8 Shandong Shenchi Dongying, Shandong Sep/215 9 Hebei Haiwei Jingxiam, Hebei Jul/216 1 Ningbo Fuji 1 Ningbo, Zhejiang Oct/ Qixiang Tengda Zibo, Shandong Aug/216 Under Construction 12 Fujian Meide PC I Fuzhou, Fujian 66 mid/217 Under Planning 13 Zhejiang Satellite PC II Pinghu, Zhejiang Hebei Haiwei II Jingxian, Hebei Fujian Meide PC II Fuzhou, Fujian ,8 16 Donghua Energy Co., Ltd-Yangzijiang II Zhangjiagang, Zhejiang Donghua Energy Co., Ltd-Ningbo Fuji II Ningbo, Zhejiang 66 Unknown 18 Jiangsu Weiming Dafeng, Jiangsu 66 Unknown Operating Under construction Planning
19 Million Metric Tons China Move Towards Self-Sufficiency China s Propylene Capacity Percentage Net Equivalent Import Domestic Derivative Equivalent Demand Self-sufficiency 19
20 Adding Too Much Capacities In Asia? 2
21 221 Propylene Capacity for Major Asia Country 1,28 11,484 9,748 8, Cracker Refinery Metathesis 2,34 Cracker 4, Refinery Cracker Refinery PDH Metathesis 21
22 Million Metric Tons Operating Rate Oversupply Increasing in Korea 1 14% 8 11% 6 97% 4 94% 2 9% 86% Production Demand Total Capacity Operating Rate 22
23 Million Metric Tons Per Year Million Metric Tons Per Year South Korea Propylene & Derivatives S. Korea Propylene Capacity 12 S. Korea Propylene Equivalent Trade Steam Crackers Refinery/ FCC On-Purpose Propylene Acrylonitrile Polypropylene Others Net Trade 23
24 Million Metric Tons New Derivatives Focus on PP & PO Asia Propylene Derivative Capacity Addition AN Acrylic Acid Phenol Oxo-Alcohol PP Propylene Oxide Others Notes: All capacities in per ton propylene basis 24
25 Propylene Cost Competitiveness 25
26 Dollars Per Metric Ton NEA Propylene Production Technology Breakdown of Cost Structure for 216 1, Naphtha Cracker* CTO* MTO* PDH FCC Splitter Feedstock Co-Credits Variable Fixed Total Notes: *Per Ton Light Olefins Basis 26
27 Dollars Per Metric Ton Crackers become more competitive in a low crude oil environment NEA On-Purpose Propylene Production Cost 2, 1,5 1, 5 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Non-Integrated Naphtha Cracker* Integrated (BDE/BTX) Naphtha Cracker* Metathesis PDH MTO* (Basis: Shanghai, E China) CTO* (Basis: Inner Mongolia, NW China) Notes: *Per Metric Ton Light Olefins 27
28 Dollars Per Metric Ton Coal-based Economics still Attractive in the Long-term NEA On-Purpose Propylene Production Cost 1,6 1, Non-Integrated Naphtha Cracker* Integrated Naphtha Cracker* Metathesis FCC Splitter PDH MTO* (Basis: Shanghai, E China) CTO* (Basis: Inner Mongolia, NW China) Notes: *Per Metric Ton Light Olefins 28
29 Dollars Per MT PDH is propylene price setter in Asia PDH vs Naphtha cracker cost 2, , , Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan 1 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 PDH Cost Naphtha cracker Cost Propylene, CFR NEA P/E Ratio P/E Ratio 29
30 Key takeaway box Aggressive investment in on-purpose propylene and short ethylene balance made historical low P/E ratio. China PDH feedstock exposure to US propane increases. NE Asia PDH producers will set propylene floor and ceiling prices in Asia Asia moves towards self-sufficient propylene and derivatives in the future Prices more dependent on economics of alternate routes - Seasonal propane price - Ethylene margin for naphtha cracker 3
31 IHS Markit Customer Care: Americas: +1 8 IHS CARE ( ) Europe, Middle East, and Africa: +44 () Asia and the Pacific Rim: IHS Markit TM COPYRIGHT NOTICE AND DISCLAIMER. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent of IHS Markit. Content reproduced or redistributed with IHS Markit permission must display IHS Markit legal notices and attributions of authorship. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the opinions and analyses that are based upon it, and to the extent permitted by law, IHS Markit shall not be liable for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage, or expense incurred by reliance on information or any statement contained herein. In particular, please note that no representation or warranty is given as to the achievement or reasonableness of, and no reliance should be placed on, any projections, forecasts, estimates, or assumptions, and, due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events and results may differ materially from forecasts and statements of belief noted herein. This presentation is not to be construed as legal or financial advice, and use of or reliance on any information in this publication is entirely at your own risk. IHS Markit and the IHS Markit logo are trademarks of IHS Markit.
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