RTI International; 2 Wake Forest University School of Medicine; 3

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1 Tobacco Farmer Attitudes Towards Tobacco Manufacturers: Divergence of Interests in a Rapidly Changing Market? Presented by Robert H. Beach, PhD 1 ; Alison Snow Jones, PhD 2 ; W. David Austin, MPH 1 ; Erik C. Crankshaw, MPH 1 ; and David A. Altman, PhD 3 1 RTI International; 2 Wake Forest University School of Medicine; 3 Center for Creative Leadership Presented at The 134th Annual Meeting of the American Public Health Association Boston, MA, November 4 8, Cornwallis Road P.O. Box Research Triangle Park, NC 2779 Phone Fax rbeach@rti.org RTI International is a trade name of Research Triangle Institute

2 Outline Study overview Changing conditions in tobacco production Tobacco farmer attitudes towards the tobacco manufacturing industry (TMI) Alignment of interests TMI motivation and behavior Implications for tobacco control 2

3 Study Research Questions Can an intervention promoting tobacco diversification lessen the dependence of tobacco farmers on tobacco-related income? Assuming tobacco dependence is reduced: As tobacco farmers become less dependent on tobacco, will their attitudes towards tobacco control policies change? As tobacco farmers become less dependent on tobacco, will their attitudes towards tobacco manufacturers change? 3

4 U.S. Tobacco Production Total Production in Millions of Pounds 2,4 2,3 2,2 2,1 2, 1,9 1,8 1,7 1,6 1,5 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,1 1,

5 U.S. Farms Growing Tobacco Number of Farms Reported by Census 6, 55, 5, 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5,

6 Tobacco Quota Buyout Removal of quotas and price supports will Lower tobacco prices Allow geographic relocation of production Expected to speed transition to fewer, larger tobacco farms Smaller and older farmers are likely to stop growing tobacco Tobacco farmers and quota holders will receive buyout payments for the next 1 years to aid in transition, though top 2% of recipients will receive about 8% of payments Conflict with TMI over Phase II payments 6

7 Tobacco Farmer Attitudes Master Settlement Agreement provided information to farmers about TMI practices that may have affected attitudes Revealed manipulation of smoking risk information Farmer attitudes towards TMI are expected to depend on tobacco income dependence Those with higher dependence on tobacco are likely to indicate closer link between TMI performance and their own Similarly, exit from tobacco production is likely to decrease congruence with TMI 7

8 Data Panel survey of NC tobacco farmers drawn from 14 of the 15 highest-producing counties for flue-cured tobacco in the state Fielded 1997, 1999, 21, 24, 25 Many of the attitude questions were added in 24 or 25 Tobacco dependence Share of household income from tobacco HH Characteristics Demographics (age, gender, race), education, political ideology; indicator variables for married, children, use tobacco, treatment county 8

9 Dependent Variables for Regressions TMI_PROFIT tobacco companies hurt farmer profitability 4 responses; aggregated to 1) not at all or a little, 2) somewhat, 3) great deal CONGRUENCE if TMI do well, then farmers do well 5 responses, aggregated to 1) do not agree, 2) agree, 3) strongly agree EFFECTIVENESS TMI is less effective without growers 5 responses, aggregated to 1) do not agree, 2) agree, 3) strongly agree BLAME cigarette companies get too much blame for youth smoking 5 responses, aggregated to 1) do not agree, 2) agree, 3) strongly agree FARMERS cigarette companies care about tobacco farmers 5 responses, aggregated to 1) do not agree, 2) agree or strongly agree HONEST most cigarette companies are honest 5 responses, aggregated to 1) do not agree, 2) agree or strongly agree MONEY most cigarette companies care only about money 5 responses, aggregated to 1) do not agree, 2) agree, 3) strongly agree 9

10 Tobacco Companies Hurt Farmer Profitability 6 % Respondents Survey Year Not At All A Little Somewhat Great Deal 1

11 Tobacco Companies Hurt Farmer Profitability Those with positive tobacco income share in 24 more likely to feel tobacco companies hurt profitability Little difference between >% categories In 26: those with no tobacco income more likely to agree that TMI hurt farmer profitability Those with tobacco income >% less likely to agree No significant effect of political ideology Significant positive treatment effect Predicted d Predicte % -2% 2-35% 35-5% >5% Tobacco Income Share 26 % -2% 2-35% 35-5% >5% Tobacco Income Share Minimal Somewhat Great Deal Minimal Somewhat Great Deal 11

12 If Companies Do Well, Farmers Do Well 6 % Respondents Survey Year SD D N A SA 12

13 If Companies Do Well, Farmers Do Well Slight increase in probability of agreeing at higher income share for shares >% in 24 Between 24 and 26, probability of disagreeing increases for those with lower tobacco income shares decreases for those >2% Increase in probability with increasing tobacco income share is much stronger in 26 Significant positive effect on strongly agreeing of being conservative Significant negative treatment effect Predicted Predicted % -2% 2-35% 35-5% >5% Tobacco Income Share 26 % -2% 2-35% 35-5% >5% Tobacco Income Share NA A SA NA A SA 13

14 Companies Are Less Effective Without Growers 8 % Respondents Survey Year SD D N A SA 14

15 Companies Are Less Effective Without Growers Less likely not to agree and more likely to strongly agree at higher tobacco income shares Increase in probability of agreeing, decrease in probability of not agreeing or strongly agreeing between 24 and 26 Significant negative effect of being somewhat conservative or conservative Significant negative treatment effect Predicted Predicted % -2% 2-35% 35-5% >5% Tobacco Income Share 26 % -2% 2-35% 35-5% >5% Tobacco Income Share NA A SA NA A SA 15

16 Companies Get Too Much Blame for Youth Smoking % Respondents Survey Year SD D N A SA 16

17 Companies Get Too Much Blame for Youth Smoking Probability that respondents will not agree that the TMI get too much blame for youth smoking is significantly lower at higher tobacco income share, while the probability of strongly agreeing is significantly higher No significant effect of political ideology Significant negative treatment effect Predicted % -2% 2-35% 35-5% >5% Tobacco Income Share NA A SA 17

18 Companies Care About Farmers % Respondents Survey Year SD D N A SA 18

19 Companies Care About Farmers Probability that respondents will agree that the TMI care about farmers generally higher at higher tobacco income shares No significant effect of political ideology Significant negative treatment effect Predicted % -2% 2-35% 35-5% >5% NA A Tobacco Income Share 19

20 Companies Are Generally Honest % Respondents Survey Year SD D N A SA 2

21 Companies Are Generally Honest Probability that respondents will agree that the TMI are generally honest increases with tobacco income share No difference between those with no tobacco income and those with <2% share No significant effect of political ideology Significant negative treatment effect Predicted % -2% 2-35% 35-5% >5% Tobacco Income Share NA A 21

22 Companies Care Only About Money 7 6 % Respondents Survey Year SD D N A SA 22

23 Companies Care Only About Money No significant difference between categories, except: >5% tobacco income share much more likely not to agree, less agree to agree or strongly agree that the TMI care only about money No significant effect of political ideology Significant positive treatment effect Predicted % -2% 2-35% 35-5% >5% Tobacco Income Share NA A SA 23

24 Summary The majority of growers feel tobacco companies: hurt their profitability (69% in 25) are less effective without growers (8%) care only about money (79%) are not generally honest (56%) and there are fewer that agree that farmers do well when TMI does well over time (decline from 8% to 53% between 1997 and 25) But they also feel tobacco companies get too much blame for youth smoking (75%) tobacco companies care about farmers (53%) Tobacco income dependence is an important determinant of attitudes Those with higher tobacco income share more favorable towards TMI Treatment providing information to growers about TMI and alternative sources of income significant determinant of attitudes 24

25 Implications for Tobacco Control Declining number of growers and shifting attitudes as growers exit tobacco production or become less dependent on tobacco may lessen resistance to tobacco control measures Providing information to growers about the industry from another perspective as well as information on diversification and alternative income sources seems to be effective in modifying grower attitudes towards TMI There may be additional opportunities for public health advocates to collaborate with growers to lessen opposition to tobacco control measures 25