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1 Supplementary Appendix This appendix has been provided by the authors to give readers additional information about their work. Supplement to: Jha P, Peto R. Global effects of smoking, of quitting, and of taxing tobacco. N Engl J Med 2014; 370:60-8. DOI: /NEJMra
2 Global Effects of Smoking, of Quitting and of Taxing Tobacco Prabhat Jha, Richard Peto 2 Jan 2014 Web-appendix: UK, US and Poland - National trends from 1950s to 2010 in tobacco attributed mortality. References: 1. Peto R, Lopez AD, Boreham J, Thun M. Mortality from smoking in developed countries, (Accessed August 4, 2013 at 2. Peto R, Lopez AD, Boreham J, Thun M, Heath C Jr. Mortality from tobacco in developed countries: indirect estimation from national vital statistics. Lancet ;339: Peto R, Lopez AD, Boreham J, Thun M, Heath C Jr. Mortality from smoking in developed countries, st edition. Oxford: Oxford University Press, Thun M, Peto R, Boreham J, Lopez AD. Stages of the cigarette epidemic on entering its second century. Tobacco Control 2012; 21:
3 Webfig 1. UK, Total cancer mortality rates at ages 0-34 & 35-69, with the rates at subdivided into parts attributed, and not, to smoking Sources: WHO mortality data and UN population estimates. The rate for a 35-year period is the mean of the 7 annual death rates in the component 5-year age ranges. (Hence, without other causes of death, a rate of R per 100,000 would imply a 35-year risk of 1-exp[-35R/100,000].) The mortality attributed to smoking is estimated indirectly from the national mortality statistics, using the absolute lung cancer rate as a guide to the fraction of the deaths from other causes, or groups of causes, attributable to smoking (Peto, Lopez et al, 1992,1994).
4 Webfig 2. UK, Probabilities of death at ages 0-34 (left) & 35-69, with probabilities of death from smoking shaded Most of those killed by smoking would otherwise have survived beyond age 70, but a minority (shaded area to right of dotted line) would have died by 70 anyway. Sources: WHO mortality data and UN population estimates. The mortality attributed to smoking is estimated indirectly from the national mortality statistics (Peto, Lopez et al, 1992,1994).
5 30 46/ / / 301 / / / / / / / 306 / / / / / / / 309 / / / / / / / 323 / 15 11/ / / / / / 334 / 13 13/ 90 12/ / / / / 335 / 10 15/ 85 15/ / / / / 332 / / 79 19/ / / / / 332 / / 73 29/ / / / / 315 / / 68 32/ / / 93 49/ / 311 / / 60 40/ / / 83 42/ / 290 / / 54 39/ / / 78 37/ / 277 / / 51 42/ / / 75 35/ / 271 / / 50 39/ / 291 / 0.7M 2.2/ 5.8M 2.3/ 9.3M 4.6/ 16M / 0.4M 0.7/ 3.6M 1.3/ 12M 2.0/ 16M *Estimated as 10 times the sum of the annual numbers for 1995 & 2005
6
7 Webfig 3. US, Total cancer mortality rates at ages 0-34 & 35-69, with the rates at subdivided into parts attributed, and not, to smoking Sources: WHO (& US NCHS) mortality data and UN population estimates. The rate for a 35-year period is the mean of the 7 annual death rates in the component 5-year age ranges. (Hence, without other causes of death, a rate of R per 100,000 would imply a 35-year risk of 1- exp[-35r/100,000].) The mortality attributed to smoking is estimated indirectly from the national mortality statistics, using the absolute lung cancer rate as a guide to the fraction of the deaths from other causes, or groups of causes, attributable to smoking (Peto, Lopez et al, 1992,1994).
8 Webfig 4. US, Probabilities of death at ages 0-34 (left) & 35-69, with probabilities of death from smoking shaded Most of those killed by smoking would otherwise have survived beyond age 70, but a minority (shaded area to right of dotted line) would have died by 70 anyway. Sources: WHO (& US NCHS) mortality data and UN population estimates. The mortality attributed to smoking is estimated indirectly from the national mortality statistics (Peto, Lopez et al, 1992,1994).
9 122 62/ / / 828 / / / / / / / 873 / / / / / / / 976 / / / / / / / 1035 / 74 12/ / / / / / 1078 / 68 27/ / / / / / 1051 / 56 40/ / / / / / 1075 / 54 54/ / / / / / 1098 / 48 66/ / / / / / 1113 / 48 72/ / / / / / 1173 / 44 75/ / / / / / 1178 / 38 73/ / / / / / 1208 / 39 73/ / / / / / 1233 / 36 70/ / / 1236 / 4.9M 6.9/ 22M 5.5/ 29M 12/ 56M / 2.6M 2.7/ 13M 4.0/ 34M 6.6/ 50M *Estimated as 10 times the sum of the annual numbers for 1965, 1975, 1985, 1995 & 2005
10
11 Webfig 5. Poland, Total cancer mortality rates at ages 0-34 & 35-69, with the rates at subdivided into parts attributed, and not, to smoking Sources: WHO mortality data and UN population estimates. The rate for a 35-year period is the mean of the 7 annual death rates in the component 5-year age ranges. (Hence, without other causes of death, a rate of R per 100,000 would imply a 35-year risk of 1-exp[-35R/100,000].) The mortality attributed to smoking is estimated indirectly from the national mortality statistics, using the absolute lung cancer rate as a guide to the fraction of the deaths from other causes, or groups of causes, attributable to smoking (Peto, Lopez et al, 1992,1994).
12 Webfig 6. Poland, Probabilities of death at ages 0-34 (left) & 35-69, with probabilities of death from smoking shaded Most of those killed by smoking would otherwise have survived beyond age 70, but a minority (shaded area to right of dotted line) would have died by 70 anyway. Sources: WHO mortality data and UN population estimates. The mortality attributed to smoking is estimated indirectly from the national mortality statistics (Peto, Lopez et al, 1992,1994).
13 / / / 136 / / / / / / 32 13/ 117 / / / / / / 39 17/ 121 / / / / / / 52 26/ 141 / / / / / 72 10/ 64 33/ 158 / / / / / 83 15/ 83 45/ 189 / / / / / 89 17/ 94 54/ 202 / / / / / / 87 60/ 209 / / / / / / 87 61/ 206 / / / / / 95 20/ 90 57/ 195 / / / / / 92 22/ 95 56/ 197 / / / / / 91 21/ / 200 / / / / 179 / 0.9M 1.5/ 4.2M 0.7/ 3.8M 2.2/ 8.8M / 0.5M 0.2/ 2.2M 0.2/ 5.2M 0.3/ 7.8M *Estimated as 10 times the sum of the annual numbers for 1965, 1975, 1985, 1995 & 2005
14
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