Market comment Markkommentaar. October / Oktober 2015

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1 Market comment Markkommentaar October / Oktober 2015

2 Inleiding Vanaf Januarie tot begin Oktober is sowat 10,9 miljoen sakkies meer verkoop op markte as die ooreenstemmende tydperk verlede jaar. Die gemiddelde prys was sowat R6,78 per 10kg sakkie laer. Wat kan ons verwag vir die res van die jaar? Meer as hektare geplant se inligting is reeds beskikbaar. In vergelyking met dieselfde tyd verlede jaar is hektaar meer aangeplant. Beteken dit pryse kan die res van die jaar onder druk bly, soos tans ervaar word? Sien die volgende bladsy Introduction Since the beginning of January till the beginning of October about 10,9 million bags more were sold on markets than the same time last year. The average price were down by about R6,78 per 10kg bag. What can we expect for the rest of the year? Information for more than hectares is already available. Compared to the same time last year, about hectares more have been planted. Does this mean that prices will remain under pressure for the rest of the year, as is currently the situation? See the next page 2

3 Average Weekly prices?? Prysverwagting: Pryse bereik gewoonlik rondom Oktober `n hoogtepunt waarna dit weer afwaarts begin neig tot ten minste begin Desember (langtermyn tendens). Volgens ASA se nuutste oesskatting behoort Oktober se volumes na markte effens minder te wees as September se volumes. Pryse het alreeds opwaarts begin neig in lyn met die langtermyn tendens (September se volumes na markte was laer as Augustus se volumes en het pryse dus begin styg). 3

4 Average Weekly prices?? Price expectation: Prices normally reach a high in October, where after it will experience downward pressure till round about the beginning of December (long-term trend). According to PSA's latest crop estimate should the volumes to markets during October be less than September's volumes. Prices have already started an upwards movement in line with the long-term trend. 4

5 Factors that could play a role in the market place: Rainfall can result in upward pressure on prices when producers cannot lift potatoes. High temperatures may affect the quality of potatoes (negative) and thus the price of potatoes. More hectares planted in Limpopo and a relative warm winter (good yields) may result in more potatoes coming to the markets than normally, especially during October (prices may be negatively affected). Faktore wat `n rol kan speel in die markplek: Reënval kan veroorsaak dat pryse opwaartse druk ervaar omrede produsente nie kan uithaal nie. Hoë temperature kan die kwaliteit van aartappels negatief affekteer en dus `n invloed uitoefen op markpryse. Meer hektare geplant in Limpopo tesame met `n warm winter (goeie opbrengste) kan veroorsaak dat Limpopo meer aartappels as normaal na markte stuur, veral gedurende Oktober (pryse kan dus afwaartse druk ervaar). 5

6 What is currently happening on markets? / Wat is tans besig om op markte te gebeur? Voorraadvlakke het die laaste 2 weke Aug en die eerste week Sept laer begin neig. Pryse het gevolglik opwaartse druk begin ervaar. 13 & 14 Aug: highest stock levels ever 6

7 Why are prices under pressure? R = record volumes January till October: 2015 versus ,9 million 10kg bags more were sold on markets Average price is down R6,78 per 10kg bag Januarie tot Oktober: 2015 versus ,9 miljoen 10kg sakkies meer verkoop op markte Gemiddelde prys R6,78 per 10kg sakkie laer R R R R R R R R R It is expected that the sales volumes for Oct could also be above normal. 7

8 Why are market prices under pressure? 10,9 million bags more than last year = 14% up Market price came down R6,78 per bag = 20% down In die figuur word nominale pryse aangedui nie reële pryse nie 8

9 Sedert Oktober verlede jaar: Aartappelpryse klop nie inflasie nie 2013 & 2014: Goeie pryse & goeie opbrengste See the 2015 monthly real prices in the graph: Current real prices are lower than previous years. Prices do not beat inflation. Not a good position to be in. 9

10 Is aartappelproduksie se volhoubaarheid in die gedrang? Reële markpryse beweeg nie meer opwaarts soos in die verlede nie. Reële produksiekoste styg in die meeste streke Why did we lose more than 100 potato farmers (20%) during the last 4 seasons? Producers must take cognisance of the current situation and respond accordingly as far as planting is concerned! 10

11 Gedurende die laaste 2 jaar is hektaar meer aangeplant Yes, we are growing, 2015: Grootste oes & Hoogste gem opbrengs, but are we planting ourselves out of business? 11

12 Farmers & Agents are losing money, despite GOOD yields Die reële maandelikse omset op markte vir aartappels is laer as die vorige 2 jaar. Ons kan dus nie inflasie klop nie. The real monthly turnover on markets for potatoes for 2015 is lower than 2014 and 2013, meaning we cannot beat inflation. 12

13 Verwagte aanplantings alreeds bekend: 2016 seisoen Region Eastern Free State Mpumalanga Gauteng South Western FS North West KZN (summer) Ceres North Eastern Cape Sandveld (summer) RSA ? Some regions already started planting and will commence lifting early December. Opsommend: Daar word nie eintlik minder hektare aangeplant nie. Limpopo & Wes VS se 2016 hektare sal eers volgende jaar beskikbaar kom. 13

14 Wat kan ons verwag in 2016? 2013 & 2014 Goeie opbrengste & Goeie pryse Produsente klop inflasie 2015 Goeie opbrengste & Swak pryse Produsente klop nie inflasie nie 2016 Aanduidings is dat nie minder geplant word nie Produsente sal weer nie inflasie kan klop nie 14

15 15

16 Regions lifting potatoes Streke wat tans aartappels bemark

17 Streke se markaandeel op markte Currently Limpopo is the largest supplier of potatoes to the markets. 17

18 Hectares planted in Limpopo Limpopo: 2015: For the first time more than hectares will be planted 18

19 `n Relatief warm winter is ervaar, soos in season a relative warm winter September 2013 tot November 2013 op markte: Verwerkers koop meer as 2.5 milj sakkies op plase = goeie pryse 2014 season a relative cold winter Julie 2014 tot September 2014 op markte: Koueskade = 2.7 milj sakkies minder na markte as vorige jaar = goeie pryse 2015: Weer `n warm winter & meer hektare. Weeklikse lewerings kan moontlik gedurende Oktober 1.8 miljoen per week bereik => Indien dit realiseer kan dit pryse waarskynlik afwaarts druk

20 Sandveld 20

21 Sandveld Weekly sales volume Sandveld: See previous page Frost damage effect on market during October/November?

22 2015: Eastern FS & Western FS hectares planted More hectares were planted

23 Eastern Free State / Oos-Vrystaat Weekly sales volume Weens reënval kon produsente nie normaal uithaal Largest harvest ever best yield/ha ever Grootste oes ooit beste opbrengs/ha ooit Largest harvest ever best yield/ha ever Grootste oes ooit beste opbrengs/ha ooit Largest harvest ever best yield/ha ever Grootste oes ooit beste opbrengs/ha ooit

24 Western Free State / Wes-Vrystaat Weekly sales volume Good yields are being realised. Ook grootste oes tot dusver.

25 2016 oes: Streke wat Desember begin bemark (markaandeel Januarie = 60%) 1. Suidwes-Vrystaat bykans selfde hektare 2. Noordwes bykans selfde hektare 3. Gauteng bykans selfde hektare 4. Mpumalanga Januarie vanjaar: Limpopo lewer groot hoeveelhede op markte. Januarie 2016? Waarskynlik nie, hang af van Moeder Natuur. Weens oormaat reens Desember 2014 kon sommige produsente eers Januarie 2015 klaar uithaal. 150 hektaar minder 25

26 Streke wat Desember begin met 2016 oes: Markpryse klop nie inflasie nie Mpu & Gauteng: Afgelope 2 seisoene: Klop nie inflasie nie Nwes & SW VS: Afgelope seisoen: Klop nie inflasie nie Feitlik alle streke het wel goeie opbrengste gerealiseer 26

27 Thank you / Dankie Disclaimer:

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