Ex-Post Evaluation of Technical Cooperation Project Eradication of Opium Poppy Cultivation and Poverty Reduction in Kokang Special Region No.

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1 Republic of the Union of Myanmar 0. Summary Ex-Post Evaluation of Technical Cooperation Project Eradication of Opium Poppy Cultivation and Poverty Reduction in Kokang Special Region No.1 External Evaluator: Mimi Sheikh International Development Center of Japan, Inc. With the goal of preventing the Kokang Self-administered Zone (KSAZ) residents from reverting back to opium poppy cultivation and improving their livelihoods, this project first launched its emergency assistance to mitigate critical poverty in the region, followed by a comprehensive scheme to improve farming technology needed for alternative cropping and to improve the education and health environment. Because these goals complement Myanmar s minority development policies such as the 15 Year-Plan of Opium Eradication along with the KSAZ s development needs and Japanese assistant policies, the relevance of this project is high. Furthermore, according to the results of the beneficiary survey carried out at the 6 pilot village tracts, when comparing the pre-project and post-evaluation situation, the villagers experienced an increase in income due to the diversification of crops and improvements in the education and health environments. These changes in the quality of life are acknowledged by the villagers. The Myanmar government has also shown high regard for the project, recognizing that the series of achievements exemplify a successful example of sustainable transition from opium poppy cultivation. In addition, through this project, the Myanmar government and KSAZ have been able to build a greater relationship of trust which has had a positive impact in terms of peace and conflict resolution. Hence, the effectiveness and impact are regarded to be high. However, because the cooperation period and finances slightly exceeded the project plan despite the fact that all inputs were properly utilized the project s efficiency was evaluated as fair. Its sustainability is generally not considered to be a problematic issue: drug eradication policies have been maintained during ex-post evaluation, and in the area of finance, a development assistance budget specifically targeted for opium poppy-cultivating regions has been created since Nevertheless, because the system to transfer farming technology from the Department of Agriculture to the farmers is still not adequately equipped, and the movements of anti-government forces cannot be predicted, the project s sustainability has been undermined by a number of problems. Hence, the sustainability of project effects has been assessed as fair. In light of the above, this project is evaluated to be satisfactory. 1

2 1. Project Description Kokang (Project site) China Project Location Crops experimentally planted at Nali farm 1.1 Background Located in the northeastern part of Shan State in the Republic of the Union of Myanmar (hereinafter referred to as Myanmar ), the Kokang region has historically been renowned for its flourishing opium poppy cultivation, the source of the narcotic drug, opium, due to the central government s weak administrative rule. In March 1989, the Kokang people an ethnic minority of the Kokang region became the first of all anti-government groups to sign a ceasefire agreement with the government of Myanmar, winning their Overview of Kokang Self-Administered Zone Population: about 150, ,000 Area: 1,844.5 km 2 Topography: mountainous area (altitude from 1,000 to 2,000 m) Main common language: Chinese Main ethnic group: Chinese Han Administrative district: The region became self-administered zone in Myanmar is consists of 7 states, 7 region, 5 self-administered zones, and 1 union territory. Government location: Laukai The exact number is unknown because many people come and go between Kokang and Yunnan province in China at the border area. autonomy as Special Region No. 1. In exchange, the Kokang leadership agreed with the government to halt opium poppy cultivation that has been maintained for a century, and by strengthening their legal control, were able to successfully eradicate opium by However, the rapid eradication of opium poppy cultivation with the strengthening of legal control has had adverse effects on the farmers of the Kokang Special Region ( Kokang Self-Administered Zone (KSAZ) since 2009). Whereas 70% of their income derived from opium poppy trade prior to its eradication, the farmers suddenly lost their source of cash income. As a result, they could no longer acquire products and services that were typically obtained by cash in the past such as fertilizer, food, healthcare and education and their state of poverty deteriorated rapidly. Only within the reported cases 2

3 in 2003, more than 100 people succumbed to starvation, and more than 270 of the 4,000 people infected with malaria lost their lives in Konkyang of northern Kokang Special Region. It was imperative, therefore, for the Myanmar government to resolve this critical situation, maintain peace in the region and prevent farmers from reverting back to opium poppy cultivation for survival. Against this backdrop, JICA has dispatched experts to mainly Kyaukme of Shan State since 1997, promoting buckwheat cultivation as one of the substitute crops for opium poppy. Due to the projects achievements in improving the farmers income, the Myanmar government has requested JICA to launch a technical cooperation project with a comprehensive approach for agricultural development, maintenance of basic infrastructure and enhancement of education and health systems. Consequently, the project started in April Project Outline Kokang farmers became severely poor since the region eradicated opium poppy in 2003; famers no longer had cash income to buy fertilizer, food, healthcare and education services. Farmers did not have enough food and many lost their lives due to malaria infection. Nobody was ready to cultivate substitute crops planned by the project. Therefore, the project provided emergency support in order to help farmers break out from poverty and to gain an understanding of the upcoming project activities through the available assistance. After confirming the outcome of the emergency assistance, the project implemented development assistance including improved agricultural techniques, livelihood improvement by organizing villagers groups, developing school and health facilities to further improve the living standard of the region. Furthermore, the project expects KSAZ to continue livelihood development activities based on the cultivation of substitute crops for opium poppy after a series of successful examples were observed by the KSAZ government and villagers during the process of implementing development assistance through the project. The following is the project outline. Overall Goals Project Purposes Outputs Output 1 1. Living conditions of the beneficiaries are improved 2. Successful experiences of the poverty reduction and rural development in Kokang Special Region No. 1 is demonstrated as a rural development model of post opium poppy cultivation areas 1. Critical situation of people in poverty right after the eradication of opium poppy cultivation is mitigated 2. Successful experience of implemented with collaboration of Myanmar government and Kokang Special Region No. 1 and villagers self-reliant participation are demonstrated mainly in the Pilot Areas Urgent critical situation is mitigated in Kokang Special Region No. 1 3

4 Output 2 Output 3 Output 4 Output 5 Total cost (Japanese Side) Period of Cooperation Implementing Agency Other Relevant Agencies / Organizations Supporting Agency/Organization in Japan Related Projects Techniques and approaches regarding the whole process from cultivation to marketing of substitute crops are improved mainly in the Pilot Areas Improved farming techniques are disseminated and used by farmers mainly in the Pilot Areas The villagers' livelihood is improved (e.g. through group activities) mainly in the Pilot Areas Basic health situation and education environment are improved mainly in the Pilot Areas 1,074 million yen April, 2005 March, 2010 Extended Period: April, 2010 March, 2011 (extension) Responsible Agency: Ministry of Progress of Border Areas and National Races and Development Affairs / Progress of Border Area and National Races Department (PBANRD) Implementing Agency: Myanmar Agriculture Service (presently Department of Agriculture (DOA)), Ministry of Education (MOE), Ministry of Health (MOH), and Kokang Special Region No. 1 (The area had been self-administered zone since In this evaluation report, Kokang Special Region No. 1 is used to describe overall goals, project purposes, and outcomes which are established at the time of project planning. For other parts of the report, Kokang Self-administered Zone (KSAZ) will be used.) None Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries JICA technical assistance for eradication of opium Poppy cultivation by substitute crops (mainly buckwheat) ( ) The Development Study on Sustainable Agricultural and Rural Development for Poverty Reduction Programme in the Central Dry Zone of the Union of Myanmar ( ) Myanmar Agriculture Service, Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation ( ) Project for Eradication of Opium Poppy Cultivation and Rural Development in the Northern Part of Shan State ( ) 1.3 Outline of the Terminal Evaluation Achievement Status of Project Purpose at the time of the Terminal Evaluation Project purpose 1, Critical situation of people in poverty right after the eradication of opium poppy cultivation is mitigated was generally achieved. In contrast, project purpose 2, Successful experience of implemented with collaboration of Myanmar government and Kokang Special Region No. 1 and villagers self-reliant participation are demonstrated mainly in the Pilot Areas was partially achieved. Some of the planned 4

5 activities were not implemented due to the military conflict that occurred in 2009 and consequently, some of the project activities were suspended or postponed. The project period should be extended to undertake the incomplete activities Achievement Status of Overall Goal at the Time of the Terminal Evaluation Project outcomes such as constructing branch roads by applying road improvement techniques used in this project, and multiplying and distributing rice seed (type YJ-202) developed on their own after receiving primary seeds from the project were observed. The project outcomes are expected to be disseminated to other village tracts and villages in future Recommendations at the time of the Terminal Evaluation Due to the military conflict in August , the following activities shown in Table 1 were delayed. The project period should be extended for one and half years to undertake the unfinished activities. Output 2 Output 3 Output 4 Output 5 Table 1 Unimplemented Activities at the Time of Terminal Evaluation Buckwheat cultivation, technical advice for tea farmers and experimental demonstration in Tarshwetan farm Bokashi training, and demonstration at Nali farm and model farmers Monitoring animal dispersal through a revolving system and 3 water supply facilities in Taukshwe village tract 3 Teacher training in literacy class and health education, 2 literacy classes in Lontan and Minchen village tracts, 1 school construction in Chuntai village tract, 1 school renovation in Shaukai village tract, 13 school latrines in Lontan, Minchen and Chuntai village tracts, Extended Program on Immunization (EPI) in Lontan and Taukshwe village tracts 2. Outline of the Evaluation Study 2.1 External Evaluator Mimi Sheikh, International Development Center of Japan, Inc. 1 As a result of the terminal evaluation, the project was extended for one year. 2 The confrontation started when Myanmar government requested Kokang army to incorporate into national border guard force and when the government made a raid on a gun factory in 8 th August 2009, a large confrontation occurred from 27 th to 29 th August in Kokang. Although the official number is not known, a total of more than 200 people for both forces died and over 30,000 people were temporarily evacuated to Yunnan Province in China as refugees due to the incident. 3 Due to deterioration of safety in Taukshwe village tract, the plan was cancelled after the terminal evaluation. 5

6 2.2 Duration of Evaluation Study The ex-post evaluation was conducted under the following schedule. Duration of the Study: September, 2014 August, 2015 Duration of the Field Study: December 3 20, 2014 and March 16 23, Constraints during the Evaluation Study The indicators established during project planning did not provide information on the baseline data 4 and a way to obtain this data. Therefore, the evaluator needed to collect three points, which were the time of project planning, project completion, and ex-post evaluation, through a beneficiary survey. In addition, as a result of the ex-post evaluation, it was found that most of the data related to KSAZ were not collected or published. For this reason, while reviewing the indicator established at the time of project planning, the decision made in the evaluation was based on the information gathered through interviews of project stakeholders and beneficiary survey. Furthermore, questions concerning the time of project planning, project completion, and ex-post evaluation were going to be asked in the beneficiary survey, but the questions were narrowed down to a minimum number because it was discovered during pre-testing for the beneficiary survey that asking farmers all the questions made them feel pressured. It was also difficult for them to make the time to answer all the questions due to their daily farm work. In addition, the pilot village tracts for the project were located in a mountainous area and some areas were only accessible on foot. Thus, the evaluator could not visit all the villages to study the prevailing conditions within the limited study period. For villages that the evaluator could not visit, the evaluator interviewed village tract leaders in order to maintain the quality of the evaluation. Since information on budget allocation and expenditure was not publicly available, the data was collected by interviewing stakeholders and evaluated. 3. Results of the Evaluation (Overall Rating: B 5 ) 3.1 Relevance (Rating: 3 6 ) Relevance to the Development Plan of Myanmar The Government of Myanmar promulgated the 15 year-plan of Opium Eradication that promoted substitute crops to opium poppy cultivation and promised to achieve the plan in The Ministry of Progress of Border Areas and National Races and Development Affairs (PBANRD) produced a Thirty Year Development Master Plan for 4 It is qualitative and quantitative information which serve as a basis at the time of project start. 5 A: Highly satisfactory, B: Satisfactory, C: Partially satisfactory, D: Unsatisfactory 6 3: High, 2 Fair, 1 Low 6

7 Ethnic Minorities in order to improve the living condition of ethnic minorities in border areas. Under this plan, PBANRD constructed roads, bridges, schools, and health centers. The government policies to eradicate opium poppy and assist ethnic minorities did not change from the period of project planning to project completion. Therefore, the project was in line with the development plan of Myanmar Relevance to the Development Needs of Myanmar More than 100 people succumbed to starvation of the cases reported in 2003, and more than 270 of the 4,000 people infected with malaria lost their lives in Konkyang in the northern Kokang Special Region. In view of this situation, a project aimed at developing the area by improving the income level of farmers was urgently needed by the Kokang government and its people. As described later in the section on Effectiveness, although the poverty level dropped at the time the project was completed in comparison to the project planning period, the KSAZ government policy to achieve social economic development without returning to opium poppy cultivation, and the farmers development needs to improve their income by producing substitute crops to quickly free them from poverty had been consistently maintained during project period. Therefore, the project was in line with the development needs of Myanmar Relevance to Japan s ODA Policy According to Japan s ODA Data by Country issued by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan in 2004 and 2005, because the Aung San Suu Kyih movement had been restricted by the government authorities in Myanmar on May 30, 2003, the Japanese government decided to hold back approval of new ODA projects in principle, while approving projects that only supported urgent and humanitarian need. In view of the 100 deaths caused by starvation due to worsening poverty, the project was truly assistance for highly urgent and humanitarian need for the Kokang people. The JICA Country Assistance Program to Myanmar in 2002 placed eradication of opium poppy cultivation and dissemination of substitute crops and rural development to reduce poverty. Furthermore, it listed the northeast region of Shan state, where KSAZ is located, as a focused area for assistance. Thus, the project was in line with Japan s assistance policy. Based on the above, this project was highly relevant to the country s development plan and development needs, as well as Japan s ODA policy. Therefore, its relevance is high. 7

8 3.2 Effectiveness and Impact 7 (Rating: 3) Effectiveness Some Issues to be Considered for Evaluating Effectiveness There were 5 outputs agreed at the time of project planning However, there was difficulty in analyzing the difference between the before and after data since the baseline data for the outputs had not been recorded in the planning stage as explained in 2.3. Constraints during the Evaluation Study. Therefore, the data at the time of the project planning were also collected during the ex-post evaluation as much as possible. Living condition at the pilot sites improved was added to the existing indicator to evaluate effectiveness. Because the meaning of the Objective Indicator of Project Purpose 2, Good examples of successful experiences are obtained from the project's activities in the pilot areas was not well defined; and secondly, an additional indicator is necessary to comprehensively evaluate both the emergency support (Project Purpose 1) and development support (Project Purpose 2) of the project. In order to evaluate the additional indicator, differences between before and after the project were studied by conducting a face-to-face beneficiary survey of 200 beneficiaries (villagers) 8 in 6 pilot village tracts. Furthermore, two activities, 1) water supply facilities in Taukshwe village tract, and 2) promotion of Kokang handicrafts planned in the project were terminated due to the conflict in Thus, they were excluded from the evaluation on effectiveness Details on the achievement level of the respective outcomes are shown in the attachment Achievement of Project Purpose The project provided emergency support to help farmers break out from poverty and to gain an understanding of the upcoming project activities through the support. After confirming the outcome of the emergency support, the project implemented development assistance including improved agricultural techniques, livelihood improvement by organizing villagers groups, and development of school and health facilities to further improve the living standard in the region. Furthermore, the project expects that KSAZ will continue livelihood development activities based on cultivation of substitute crops for opium poppy after a series of successful examples were observed by KSAZ government and villagers while development assistance was implemented by the project. In order to measure these purposes, indicators were set for both emergency and development support at the time of project planning. Achievement of the Project 7 Sub-rating for Effectiveness is to be put with consideration of Impact. 8 Random sampling was used to select respondents. 8

9 Purpose based on the set indicators are discuss below. (1) Achievement Level of Emergency Support Project Purpose 1 on emergency support was Critical situation of people in poverty right after the eradication of opium poppy cultivation is mitigated The indicators used to measure Purpose 1 and its actual achievement are shown in Table 2. Table 2 Achievement of Project Purpose 1 Project Purpose Indicators Actual Critical situation of people in poverty right after the eradication of opium poppy cultivation is mitigated Food self-sufficiency period extended and kept for more than 6 months a year. Mortality rate (malaria) is controlled and is below the national mortality rate. According to Department of Agriculture (DOA) data, the food self-sufficiency date was extended from 4 months before the project to 6 months at the time of emergency support. According to MOH data, the number of malaria patients and related deaths were over 4,000 and 270 people, respectively, from 2003 to 2004 in Kokang. However the number of deaths related to malaria was only one person at the time of project completion. During the emergency support, crop seeds for food security and bed-nets were distributed; and a road was renovated to mitigate the critical poverty situation in Kokang(output 1). As for crop seeds, 30 tons of rice seed and maize and 1,047 tons of fertilizer were distributed to 239 villages. According to interviews with village tract leaders and farmers, the emergency support helped to increase agricultural production, especially when it achieved an immediate increase in food crop production during an urgent situation. As for the effect of bed-nets, it was confirmed that massive prevalence of malaria has not been reported since Therefore, it was concluded that the distributed malaria nets contributed to the prevention of a malaria outbreak. As for road development, renovation of 43 kilometers of road between Tarshwetan and Konkyan made it much easier to transport people and goods. It used to take 6 hours to travel the distance during dry season before the project, which was shortened to 2.5 hours after the project. This made it possible to move people and goods even during the rainy season. Furthermore, the road helped the efficient operation of emergency support conducted by other development partners such as the UN and NGOs. Since a critical situation in Kokang was mitigated during the project period as described above, Project Purpose 1 was achieved. 9

10 (2) Achievement Level of Development Support Project Purpose 2 was, Successful experience of implemented with collaboration 9 of Myanmar government and Kokang Special Region No.1 and villagers self-reliant participation 10 are demonstrated mainly in the Pilot Areas 11. The indicators to measure Project Purpose 2 and the actual achievement results are shown in Table 3. Table 3 Achievement of Project Purpose 2 Project Purpose Indicators Actual Successful experience of implemented with collaboration of Myanmar government and Kokang Special Region No.1 and villagers self-reliant participation are demonstrated mainly in the Pilot Areas Good examples of successful experiences were obtained from the project's activities in the pilot areas. Livelihood improved in the pilot areas (this indicator was added at the time of ex-post evaluation). Good examples were observed such as continuing farming activities, improving farming techniques and living conditions by developing the water supply system, raising animals through a revolving system, and further development of the education and health environment. Villagers livelihood had improved due to an increase in household income. In the development assistance, three components were undertaken in order to develop the region, namely 1) establish and improve the farming system, 2) establish community-based livelihood improvement activities, and 3) improve health conditions and the educational environment. The study confirmed that the outcome of these activity components had been achieved. Good examples of three components acknowledged by project stakeholders are described below. Establish and improve the farming system After eradicating opium poppy, farmers began producing substitute crops such as rice and maize. However, they needed to improve production because substitute crops required more farming techniques and knowledge than opium poppy production. The project undertook to develop the capacity of the DOA staff in KSAZ, to develop and 9 Kokang people exchanged a cease-fire agreement with Myanmar government in 1989 and became a special region No. 1 of Shan state and later became a self-administered zone in A certain number of rebels have still existed in KSAZ and the situation of the area is still unpredictable. Also due to the language differences, field based information in KSAZ cannot be entirely grasped by Myanmar government. When Myanmar government undertakes any activities in villages in KSAZ, cooperation with KSAZ government officers who have a network with village tract leaders and village leaders is dispensable. There are not much project experiences in cooperation between Myanmar government and KSAZ government, collaboration was stressed in the Project Purpose 2 even though a cooperation of two parties may be considered as a not special matter. 10 Project beneficiaries were located in mountain remote area and most of beneficiaries did not have a mean of transportation or communication tool before the project. Language was also an issue for villagers. Thus, self-reliant participation was stressed in the Project Purpose 2 for the villagers to improve their living condition themselves in case of if there is no assistance provided by outsiders. 11 Based on the interviews with Project counterparts, Successful experience are demonstrated mainly in the Pilot Areas was understood that the techniques and knowledge learned through Japanese assistance were tried by farmers and some successful examples were recognized by stakeholders in this evaluation. 10

11 renovate the Nali farm and Konkyan extension center, and to support increased projection of subsistence crops (rice and maize) by distributing excellent varieties to farmers. Furthermore, where farming of subsistence crops had been stabilized, it was shown there was an increase and improvement in farming and selling of cash crops. According to DOA data, the lowland rice variety YJ-202 was cultivated at two village tracts in 2009, which increased to four in 2011 at the time the project was completed. The variety maze seed QPM had been cultivated by 1,500 villages in 2009 and 1,200 villages in Tea and walnut plants were distributed and the required techniques needed to cultivate these plants were transferred by the time the project was completed. While the sale amount of tea was zero at the time of project planning, it had increased to 1,600 kg in 2011, at the time of project completion 13. The project transferred Bokashi and compost techniques to the DOA staff; and the DOA staff transferred the techniques to farmers by providing training at the Nali farm and through mobile training. DOA staff and farmers understood that utilization of Bokashi and compost techniques would result in stable and inexpensive production; and farmers were expected to increase agriculture productivity through these practices. More than 2,200 farmers (733 farmers per year) attended Bokashi and compost related training which greatly exceeded the targeted number of 59 farmers per year. The study also found that a certain number of farmers, who had participated in the training, had continued to practice these techniques even at the time of project completion (2014). The improvements in the farming system and diversity of crops described above resulted in increasing farmers household incomes. For instance, when 200 farmers (198 valid answers) were asked about a change in their household income from the project planning period to the project completion period, all respondents saw an improvement as shown in Table 4. The change in household income will be further described in section Impact. 12 The reasons for the decrease in yield amount of QPM maize were not known because the re asons differed depending on the farmer. According DOA and Japanese experts, some of the reasons were farming techniques, weather, and crop disease. 13 This number may not include the sale amount to Chinese enterprises that purchase directly from tea leaf from farmers. 11

12 Table 4 Change in Household Income From Project Planning Time to Project Completion (n=198) Did your household income improve from prior to 2004 compared with 2011? Extremely improved 0% Very improved 7% Moderately improved 53% Slightly improved 41% Not at all improved 0% Total 100% Source: Beneficiary survey of Kokang villagers. Establishment of community based livelihood improvement activities Accessibility to villages located in isolated mountains is very bad. Thus, it takes a while for government assistance to reach the villages. Group activities 14 such as water supply management and raising livestock through a revolving system 15 were experimentally introduced in the project in order to improve the livelihood of villagers even if outside assistance is unable to reach the area. There was no traditional culture in Kokang where villagers jointly managed an activity together to improve their livelihood. However, 29 groups in the pilot village undertook income generating activities such as animal revolving activities (pig, water buffalo, cow, and mountain goat) and the number of animals successfully increased in comparison to the initially provided number. Moreover, 9 water supply facilities in 3 village tracts, namely Minchen, Chuntai, Lontan were built or renovated 16. The water facilities reduced the villagers workload of picking up water and saved hours to allow them to do other tasks such as housework and study. As for the maintenance of water supply facilities, workshops were held in villages where the facilities were built, to teach maintenance techniques and provide maintenance equipment. By the time the project was completed, a community-based livelihood system was developed. 14 The Village level approach in the Project is a method where activities were carried out by grouping villagers. 15 Domestic animal rental committee was established in village tracts where an animal -raising activity through a revolving fund was carried out. The project provided pigs, goats, and buffalo and the committee rented them out to villagers. The beneficiaries raise, breed the rented animals, and then sell them. The beneficiaries must pay back the amount of money including interest. The procedure is slightly different according to animal type. 16 In February 9, 2007, a water supply tank built with the participation of villagers at Lonkan village in Minchen exploded. Three villagers died and two were injured (the project partially outsour ced tasks such as facility design to a local contractor). A later study found out that the accident occurred due to multiple reasons; however, one of the major factors was poor construction undertaken by the local contractor. JICA accepted that they did not fulfill the management and supervising responsibility as the work ordering party, reconstructed a new facility, and paid compensation to the victims. As a result of this accident, JICA re-checked all the water supply facilities constructed or modified by the project. When any safety concerns were found, it was demolished and reconstructed. 12

13 Improved health conditions and educational environment Five schools with attached facilities such as latrines and dormitories and two regional health centers were built and/or renovated in the project. Literacy education for preschoolers and sanitary education for school children were provided by the MOE and MOH staff members in Kokang, who received technical transfer from JICA experts. According to interviews with villagers, accessibility to education and health care in pilot village tracts improved when compared to the project planning period. It was also found that technical transfers to MOH and MOE staff members in Kokang, putting up posters, and creating and distributing guidelines increased the students and children s awareness about sanitation. In addition to the successful examples and outcomes identified for the three major activity components above, there is one more factor to be considered in determining the effectiveness of the project. That is the collaboration factor. Project Purpose 2 was to be implemented from 2008 to 2010 after the completion of the emergency support in However, the project was temporarily suspended as a result of the military conflict between the Myanmar government and KSAZ in August Consequently, the project period was extended to Despite this, both the Myanmar government and KSAZ cooperated and completed the project without abandoning it. This is worthy of the collaboration stated in Project Purpose 2, and thus highly evaluated. In contrast, whereas many qualitative outcomes were identified, base line data for numerical indicators set at the time of project planning did not exist and some of quantitative indicators were not monitored during the project. Thus, quantitative evidence to measure achievement was partially insufficient. Due to the reasons above, Project Purpose 2 was mostly achieved. Picture 1: Elementary school built by the Project. The school is used as a Myanmar public school in the morning and a Chinese private school taught by a Chinese teacher in the afternoon. Picture 2: A latrine built within School area. The Project aimed to extend sanitary education to children s homes by making children use a latrine at school. Today, most of villagers in Kokang have a latrine at home. In summary, a critical poverty situation of the Kokang people was mitigated within two years after the project started due to emergency assistance and regional development 13

14 activities that were implemented through collaboration between the Myanmar government and KSAZ; and community based approach by the development support. Consequently, an increase in household income and an improved quality in livelihood were achieved by the villagers at the time of project completion. Thus, it is concluded that the project achieved its project purpose, whereas quantitative evidence to determine the achievement of outcomes were partly insufficient. Hence, effectiveness of the project is mostly high Impact Achievement of Overall Goals With continuous support from the DOA, it is anticipated that the farmers in in this project in KSAZ will maintain agricultural techniques and cultivate cash crops such as tea and maze (for domestic animals), sugarcane, and walnut, while maintaining food self-sufficiency. Subsequently, this will lead to an increase in income for farmers and an improvement in the overall living conditions of the Kokang residents. Meanwhile, schools and health centers in Kokang will be continuously developed by the Myanmar government. Two overall goals were established to measure the above outcomes at the time of project planning. The achievement level of these overall goals and the reasons behind the achievement are discussed as below. (1) Overall Goal 1: Living conditions of the beneficiaries are improved The indicators to measure Overall Goal 1 and its actual achievement are shown in Table 5. Table 5 Achievement of Overall Goal 1 Overall Goal Indicator Actual Living conditions Number and content of According to the beneficiary survey, quantity, of the village meals were improved frequency, and quality of village food intake have all improved (Table 6) while the baseline data was beneficiaries are by 20% not recorded and the 20% planned at the time of improved the ex-ante evaluation is baseless. The result of beneficiary survey conducted for 200 villagers in the project pilot village tracts regarding dietary changes is shown in Table 6. In answer to the question, Did you or any household member worry that your household would not have enough food, 44% of the respondents answered either Very often, Often, or Sometimes at the time of project planning, which dramatically decreased to 1%, at the time of the ex-post evaluation. To the question, Did you or any household member have to eat a smaller meal because there was not enough food, 10% of the respondents answered 14

15 either Very often, Often, or Sometimes at the time of project planning, while the answer was no at the time of the ex-post evaluation. To the question, Did you or any household member have to eat fewer meals a day because there was not enough food, the answers, Very often, Often, or Sometimes decreased from 11.5% to 1%. Therefore, the survey showed that the amount of food for each villager in Kokang today increased compared to the time during project planning. Food quality has also improved. To the question Did you or any household member have to eat foods you really did not want to because of the lack of resources to obtain other types of food, 35.5% of the respondents answered, either Very often, Often, or Sometimes during project planning, while the response dramatically decreased to 1.5% at the time of the ex-post evaluation. A respondent, who had been forced to eat food he did not want to, commented that his family ate food for domestic animals when they did not have food, but today they are able to eat white rice every day. Table 6 Diet of the People in Pilot Village Tracts (N=200) Did you or any household member worry that your household would not have enough food? 2004 Planning 2014 Ex-post Evaluation Source: Beneficiary survey of Kokang villagers Change in Food Amount Did you or any household member have to eat a smaller meal because there was not enough food? 2004 Planning 2014 Ex-post Evaluation Did you or any household member have to eat fewer meals a day because there was not enough food? 2004 Planning 2014 Ex-post Evaluation Change in Food Quality Did you or any household member have to eat foods you really did not want to because of the lack of resources to obtain other types of food? 2004 Planning 2014 Ex-post Evaluation Never 24.5% 97.5% 85.0% 99.5% 88.5% 99.0% 40.0% 98.5% Rarely 31.5% 1.5% 5.0% 0.5% 5.5% 1.0% 24.5% 0.0% Sometimes 36.0% 1.0% 10.0% 0.0% 6.0% 0.0% 27.5% 1.5% Often 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 0.0% Very Often 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Two major reasons for the improved diet of the Kokang citizens were discovered through the survey. One reason was that many farmers are now able to cultivate food crops at their farm as a result of the improved farming system supported by the project. Many famers said they now ate home-grown rice and vegetables. Another reason is that many farmers had started to cultivate cash crops and gradually improved their quality. Their income improved through the sales of these crops and consequently, the farmers are able to purchase food from China using cash income. The survey results showed that household income during the project planning period 15

16 and the project completion period, Slightly Improved (41%), Moderately Improved (53%) and Very Improved (7%) (Table 4) whereas the results during the project completion and ex-post evaluation periods were 17%, 74%, and 9%, respectively. The household income of villagers in the pilot village tracts had further increased after the project was completed. Figure 1 Change in Household Income (n=198) Source: Beneficiary survey of Kokang villagers The possible reasons for the improved income are listed in Table 7. The top three reasons are 1) changed crops (163 farmers), 2) changed inputs (85 farmers), and 3) ownership of domestic animals (83 farmers). Table 7 Possible Reasons for the Improved Household Income Comparison between the Project Planning to Ex-post Evaluation Periods (n=200 / multiple answers allowed) Unit: farmer Changed crops 163 Changed infrastructure 1 Changed farm techniques 26 Installed new farm equipment 0 Changed inputs such as fertilizer, pesticide, and herbicide 85 Ownership of domestic animals 83 Others 130 Source: Beneficiary survey of Kokang villagers In a comparison of income generating crops, most farmers produced maize (167 farmers), rice (151 farmers), tea (142 farmers) during the project planning period. However, the cash crop had diversified at the time of the ex-post evaluation: sugarcane (69 farmers), walnut (47 farmers) followed by the three top cash crops such as maize 16

17 (159 farmers), tea (162 farmers), rice (93 farmers). The amount of tea sold increased from 1,600 kg at the time the project was completed to 3,000 kg at the time of the ex-post evaluation. This is because private Chinese companies have been buying sugarcane and tea leaf directly from the Kokang farmers. The project was initiated before the Chinese companies began actively purchasing agricultural products and the impact of the Chinese market was considered in depth during the assistance for cash crop cultivation in the project. In other words, it is assumed that the Chinese companies began noticing the agricultural products in Kokang because the farming techniques had improved in the region due to the project 17. As a result, Chinese companies purchased more agricultural products in Kokang and the amount sold increased accordingly. Therefore, it was concluded that the project greatly contributed to increasing farmer income despite the major impact the Chinese companies have had. Table 8 Income Generating Crops (n=200 / multiple answer allowed / unit: farmer) Planning Time (2004) Ex-post Evaluation (2014) Rice Maize Buckwheat 3 0 Tea Walnut 9 47 Gum 4 9 Coffee 0 1 Sugarcane 0 69 Source: Beneficiary survey of Kokang villagers Table 9 shows data on changes in the living condition in the pilot village tracts. As shown, 70% of the respondents felt their health condition, education environment, and overall living condition had Moderately Improved or Very Improved. Poverty in the region had been alleviated. 17 Based on an interview with DOA staff. 17

18 Table 9 Changes in the Living Condition in the Pilot Village Tracts (Comparison between the Project Planning and Ex-Post Evaluation Periods) Health Condition and Education Overall Living Environment (n=198) Condition (n=199) Extremely improved 0.0% 0.0% Very improved 48.0% 12.6% Moderately improved 31.8% 63.8% Slightly improved 20.2% 23.6% Not at all improved 0.0% 0.0% Total 100% 100% Source: Beneficiary survey of Kokang villagers In assessing the reasons behind the improved living condition based on interviews with the MOH and villagers, it was found that most of the homes in Kokang today (2015) had latrines, in addition to the school; and health conditions had largely improved from the project planning period. The aim of the project was that health education taught to children at school would be extended to their family through family discussions at home 18. Thus, it was concluded that the dissemination of latrines at village homes was one of the project s achievements. As for other achievements, the number of children who were immunized increased from 480 at the time of project completion to 768 during the ex-post evaluation. Deworming and vitamin A distribution continues even today (2014). The regional health service centers built by the project have been succeeded by AMDA Multi-sectorial & Integrated Development Service (AMDA-MINDS) 19. The government of Myanmar has pushed forward with building elementary schools and there is a learning environment in Kokang if it is in Burmese. The school attendance rate increased from 29.03% in 2010/2011 to 79.98% in 2013/2014 in the Laukai township and 10.86% to 61.43% during the same period in Konkyang. The situation is better today (2014) compared to the project completion period (2011). Some schools divide school hours into two shifts an afternoon class is taught in Burmese and a morning class in Chinese. The teacher for the Chinese class is hired privately using money collected from villagers who are interested in teaching their children in Chinese 20. According to an interview with village tract leaders, more children are able to learn in Chinese today because the villagers income has improved. 18 Based on an interview with MOH and MOE staff. 19 AMDA-MINDS is a non-profit organization which specializes in the social development sector. The organization has been supporting school children, regional health service centers, and the establishment of basic maternal and child health system since 2004 in the Kokang region. 20 Although the official language in Myanmar is Burmese, a common language used in Kokang is Chinese. Since Kokang shares its border with China, many families prefer that their children learn Chinese so that they can use their language skills to do business with the Chinese in the future. 18

19 In summary, by continuing agricultural techniques, villagers are able to cultivate and sell cash crops such as tea, maze (for domestic animals), sugarcane, and walnut, in addition to crops for home consumption. Subsequently, this lead to increased income for farmers. An improved education and health environment has been continuously undertaken by the government of Myanmar and NGOs as well. As a result, Kokang villagers have achieved an overall improvement in their living condition including the quality of their diet. Therefore, Overall Goal 1 has been largely achieved. (2) Overall Goal 2: Successful experiences of the poverty reduction and rural development in Kokang Special Region No. 1 is demonstrated as a rural development model of post opium poppy cultivation areas The indicators to measure Overall Goal 2 and the actual achievement are shown in Table 10. Table 10 Achievement of Overall Goal 2 Overall Goal Indicator Actual A significant number of cases of successful experiences appreciated by respective departments, agencies and authorities as well as people are identified. Successful experiences of the poverty reduction and rural development in Kokang Special Region No.1 is demonstrated as a rural development model of post opium poppy cultivation areas Successful examples were identified in agriculture and school health components. The project was well appreciated by the government of Myanmar and consequently a similar project has been undertaken by JICA. As discussed in Effectiveness, three components, 1) establish and improve the farming system, 2) establish community based activities to improve livelihood, 3) improve the health condition and educational environment were undertaken in order to develop the region. Continuation of various activities of these components was identified at the time of the ex-post evaluation and some of the on-going activities were acknowledged as successful examples by village tract leaders and village leaders. For example, for component 1, establish and improve the farming system, cultivation techniques for tea and walnut supported in the project had largely extended among the pilot village tracts. According to an interview of a farmer in Manlow, the cultivation method for tea had changed from random to terrace planting as a result of Japanese assistance. Consequently, this new practice increased the amount of tea production. These new methods were also applied in neighboring villages. 19

20 Picture 3: After receiving technical assistance from the project, he still cultivates tea at his farm. The tea is an important source of income for his family. Picture 4: A farmer continues to produce rice and vegetables by using techniques transferred by the project for self-consumption. His family does not have a food problem. For component 3, improve the health condition and educational environment to develop the region, the school health guideline developed in the JICA project was distributed to all elementary schools in Kokang and was used as a textbook on health guidance by teachers. At the New Nyopyinsipa Elementary School in Lontan, which the evaluation team visited, we observed that latrine usage and hand washing were thoroughly implemented. Personal sanitation had improved and subsequently, diarrhea, skin disease, and worming had also been prevented. These are only a few successful examples, but the government of Myanmar recognized many other positive effects had been brought into the region following project completion. The government of Myanmar believes the project is a good example that had successfully improved farmers household income and seeks to apply the project in other areas where a transition from opium cultivation has been undertaken. To this end, the Project for Eradication of Opium Poppy Cultivation and Rural Development in the Northern Part of Shan State ( ) was undertaken by JICA. According to an interview of the United Nations Office of Drugs and Crime (UNODC), UN agencies and NGOs had been undertaking Kokang and Wa Initiative (KOWI) in transitional areas from opium poppy cultivation since The activities under the initiative are mostly in line with the project. This development method had been established as a regional development model for the area shifting from opium to substitute crop cultivation. As stated in the Myanmar Opium Survey 2014 published by UNODC, the cultivation area of opium increased from 21,600 hectares in 2006 to 57,600 hectares in Thus the challenge today is how to prevent villagers from returning to opium poppy cultivation. Meanwhile, KSAZ has been maintaining an opium free zone since 2003 by strengthening legal control and increasing farmers household income according to the UNDOC analysis. For the latter case, the Myanmar Opium Survey 2014 showed a causal relationship between opium poppy cultivation, 20