Short-term Inflation analysis and forecast. September 2017 RESEARCH SERVICES DEPARTMENT RESEARCH AND ECONOMIC PROGRAMMING DIVISION

Transcription

1 Short-term Inflation analysis and forecast September 2017 RESEARCH SERVICES DEPARTMENT RESEARCH AND ECONOMIC PROGRAMMING DIVISION

2 c 2017 Bank of Jamaica Nethersole Place Kingston Jamaica Telephone: (876) Fax: (876) Website: ISSN Printed in Jamaica

3 Preface This report reviews recent trends in inflation and presents the outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year. The analysis is based on trends in short-term domestic demand and supply indicators as well as imported inflation. These factors inform the assumptions for the shortterm inflation forecasting model Monthly Inflation Sub-Index Model (MISI). Table of Contents 1.0 Review of Outturn Factors Underpinning the Revised Forecast Trends in demand Trends in supply Import prices Trends in Core Inflation Revised Forecast Summary and Conclusion 8 Appendices 9 Tables and Figures Figure 1: Trend in Monthly Inflation... 1 Figure 2: Regional Inflation... 1 Figure 3: Inflation Contribution... 2 Figure 4: Short-term Indicators of Demand 3 Figure 5: Industrial Electricity Sales... 4 Figure 6: International Oil Prices... 5 Figure 7: International Grains Prices... 5 Figure 8: Core Inflation (12-month change) 6 Figure 9: Monthly Inflation Fan Chart... 7 Figure 10: Trends in Selected Agriculture Production... 9

4 Short term Inflation Analysis and Forecast 1.0 Review of Outturn For September 2017, there was inflation of 0.7 per cent, which compares to inflation of 0.5 per cent recorded for September 2016 and average inflation of 1.5 per cent for September of the last five years. Given the September 2017 outturn, annual point-to-point inflation was 4.6 per cent, above the 1.9 per cent as at September 2016 and the 4.4 per cent outturn as at August 2017 (Figure 1). Figure 1: Trend in Monthly Inflation The outturn for September 2017 was below the 5- year monthly average for September. For September 2017, the Other Urban Centres (OUC) recorded higher levels of inflation relative to the Rural Area (RA) and the Greater Kingston Metropolitan Area (GKMA). This was mainly due to the higher price increases for Vegetables & Starchy Foods and Education in the OUC region (Figure 2). Figure 2: Regional Inflation September 2017 Research Services Department 1

5 Short term Inflation Analysis and Forecast Inflation in September 2017 was primarily driven by increases in Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels (HWEG) and Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages (FNB). The increase in HWEG was largely due to the upward movement in electricity rates. The increase in FNB was primarily due to increases in the prices of vegetables and starchy foods. Notable increases were also observed for Restaurants & Accommodation Services (R&A), as well as Education (ED). Inflationary pressure for the month was partly offset by a reduction in water and sewage rates. Figure 3: Inflation Contribution Inflation for September 2017 primarily reflected higher electricity rates, as well as increases in vegetables and starchy foods. These were partly offset by a reduction in water and sewage rates. Blue bars = positive and Red bars = negative MIS= Miscellaneous Goods & Services, R&A=Restaurants & Accommodation Services, ED=Education, R&C=Recreation & Culture, COM=Communication, TRAN= Transport, HLTH=Health, FHERM=Furnishings, Household Equipment & Routine Household Maintenance, HWEG=Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels, C&F=Clothing & Footwear, ABT=Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco, FNB=Food & Non- Alcoholic Beverages Source: STATIN September 2017 Research Services Department 2

6 Short term Inflation Analysis and Forecast 2.0 Factors Underpinning the Revised Forecast 2.1 Trends in demand The main indicators of domestic demand monitored by the BOJ gave mixed results for the review period. The 12-month average of the real value of imports is estimated to have accelerated by 1.6 per cent for the three months to September 2017 relative to 0.9 per cent in August. For the three months ended September 2017, the estimated 12- month average of the real value of debit and credit card transactions decelerated by 2.8 per cent (Figure 6). Figure 4: Short-term Indicators of Demand The indicators of domestic demand monitored by the BOJ gave mixed results. September 2017 Research Services Department 3

7 Short term Inflation Analysis and Forecast 2.2 Trends in supply For September 2017, RADA s forecast had suggested that the supply of most starches and vegetables were decreasing relative to the previous month. In this regard, the prices of vegetable and starchy foods were expected to accelerate in September relative to August Surveys carried out by the Ministry of Agriculture & Fisheries (MOA) and CAC indicated a deceleration in the rate of increase in agricultural prices in October 2017 relative to September Domestic agriculture commodity prices decelerated in September 2017 relative to the previous month. The 12-month average trend in industrial electricity sales, used as a proxy for industrial production accelerated in September 2017 relative to the same measure three months prior (see Figure 5). Figure 5: Industrial Electricity Sales The indicator of industrial productivity accelerated in September September 2017 Research Services Department 4

8 Short term Inflation Analysis and Forecast 2.3 Import prices In September 2017 crude oil prices rose by 3.8 per cent to an average of US$49.88 per bbl. The increase in prices mainly emanated from growing expectations that major oil producers will extend output cuts beyond March Additionally, US government data revealed an unexpected decline in crude inventories. As at October , crude oil prices rose by 3.2 per cent to an average of US$51.47 per bbl. The increase in prices mainly emanated from news of output disruptions by Saudi Arabia, Iraq s Kurdish region, and a decline in US crude oil inventories for the week ended 13 October Oil prices rose in September 2017 and is expected to rise for October. Figure 6: International Oil Prices Figure 7: International Grains Prices Forecast Actual September 2017 Research Services Department 5

9 Short term Inflation Analysis and Forecast For September 2017, the grains price index advanced by 2.3 per cent. This outturn mainly reflected increases of 3.4 per cent and 2.3 per cent in the price of wheat and rice respectively. The increase in the grains index was partly offset by a decline of 0.8 per cent in corn prices. For October 2017, the grains price index is expected to decline by 0.8 per cent. This outturn is expected to mainly a reflect reduction of 3.2 per cent in the price of corn. Declines are also expected in the prices of wheat and rice. The grains price index advanced in September 2017 but is expected to decline in October. 2.4 Trends in Core Inflation For September 2017, monthly CPI without Agriculture and Fuel (CPI-AF) accelerated to 0.3 per cent, relative to 0.2 per cent in the previous month. CPI without Food and Fuel (CPI- FF) accelerated to 0.4 per cent, relative to 0.2 per cent in the previous month while the Trimmed Mean (TRIM) remained constant at 0.2 per cent, relative to the previous month. At end-september 2017, all three annual point-to-point measures of core inflation accelerated relative to August The CPI-AF, CPI-FF and TRIM accelerated to 2.6 per cent, 2.2 per cent and 2.3 per cent from 2.5 per cent, 2.1 per cent and 2.2, respectively. All three measures of annual core inflation accelerated in September 2017 relative to the previous month Figure 8: Core Inflation (12-month change) September 2017 Research Services Department 6

10 Mar-13 Jul-13 Nov-13 Mar-14 Jul-14 Nov-14 Mar-15 Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jul-17 Nov-17 Mar-18 Short term Inflation Analysis and Forecast 3.0 Revised Forecast Inflation for October 2017 is forecasted to mainly reflect increases in HWEG. An increase in HWEG is expected due to higher electricity rates. The upward impulse for the month is also expected to emanate from FNB due to an increase in non-processed food prices. A decline in TRAN is expected to partly offset inflation for the month. Headline inflation for FY2017/18 is anticipated to fall within the target range of 4.0 per cent to 6.0 per cent. For the months of November and December 2017 inflation is projected to mainly reflect increases in FNB and HWEG. Inflation for FY2017/18 is forecasted to fall within the target range of 4.0 per cent to 6.0 per cent. The overall risks are viewed to be balanced over the next four quarters (see Figure 9). The main upside risks to the inflation forecast are adverse weather and stronger than anticipated demand conditions. The major downside risks include quicker than anticipated recovery of the agricultural sector following flood rain damage, lower than projected international commodity prices and weaker than anticipated demand. Figure 9: Monthly Inflation Fan Chart September 2017 Research Services Department 7

11 Short term Inflation Analysis and Forecast 4.0 Summary and Conclusion For September 2017, there was inflation of 0.7 per cent which was primarily driven by increases in Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels (HWEG) and Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages (FNB). The increase in HWEG was largely due to the upward movement in electricity rates. The increase in FNB primarily reflected the upward movement in the prices of vegetables and starchy foods. Notable increases were also observed for Restaurants & Accommodation Services (R&A), as well as Education (ED). Inflationary pressure for the month was partly offset by a reduction in water and sewage rates. Inflation in October is forecasted to mainly reflect increases in HWEG due to higher electricity rates. Inflation in November and December is anticipated to mainly reflect increases in FNB and HWEG. Inflation for fiscal year 2017/18 is projected to fall within the target range of 4.0 per cent to 6.0 per cent. September 2017 Research Services Department 8

12 Short term Inflation Analysis and Forecast Appendices Figure 10: Trends in Selected Agriculture Production September 2017 Research Services Department 9

13 Short term Inflation Analysis and Forecast September 2017 Research Services Department 10

14 Table 1A JAMAICA: HEADLINE INFLATION RATES Sep / 3 Month Monthly 3 mth* 3mth# 12 Month* 12 Month# FYTD CYTD C.P.I AVG. C.P.I % change % change % change % change % change % change % change Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep / December 2006 = 100 * Point to Point # Moving average Source: STATIN September 2017 Research Services Department 11

15 Table 1B JAMAICA: CPI WITHOUT FOOD AND FUEL Sep / 3 Month Monthly 3 mth* 3mth# 12 Month* 12 Month# FYTD CYTD CPI-FF Avg.CPIFF % change % change % change % change % change % change % change Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep /January 2000 = 100 * Point to Point # Moving average Source: BOJ September 2017 Research Services Department 12

16 Table 1C JAMAICA: CPI WITHOUT AGRICULTURE AND FUEL Sep / 3 Month Monthly 3 mth* 3mth# 12 Month* 12 Month# FYTD CYTD CPI-AF Avg.CPIAF % change % change % change % change % change % change % change Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep /January 2000 = 100 * Point to Point # Moving average Source: BOJ September 2017 Research Services Department 13

17 Table 1D JAMAICA: CPI WITHOUT FUEL Sep / 3 Month Monthly 3 mth* 3mth# 12 Month* 12 Month# FYTD CYTD CPI-F Avg.CPIA % change % change % change % change % change % change % change Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep /January 2000 = 100 * Point to Point # Moving average Source: BOJ September 2017 Research Services Department 14

18 Table 2 Regional Inflation Sep-MTH GKMA OUC RA Inflation(%) Inflation(%) Inflation(%) 01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES Food Bread and Cereals Meat Fish and Seafood Milk, Cheese and Eggs Oils and Fats Fruit Vegetables and Starchy Foods Vegetables Starchy Foods Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery Food Products n.e.c Non-Alcoholic Beverages Coffee, Tea and Cocoa Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Fruit and Vegetable Juices ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR Clothing Footwear HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS Rentals for Housing Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTENANC Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) Household Textiles Household Appliances Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils Tools and Equipment for House and Garden Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance HEALTH Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment Health Services TRANSPORT COMMUNICATION RECREATION & CULTURE EDUCATION RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES ALL DIVISIONS September 2017 Research Services Department 15

19 Table 2 Regional Inflation Sep-QTR GKMA OUC RA Inflation(%) Inflation(%) Inflation(%) 01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES Food Bread and Cereals Meat Fish and Seafood Milk, Cheese and Eggs Oils and Fats Fruit Vegetables and Starchy Foods Vegetables Starchy Foods Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery Food Products n.e.c Non-Alcoholic Beverages Coffee, Tea and Cocoa Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Fruit and Vegetable Juices ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR Clothing Footwear HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS Rentals for Housing Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTENANC Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) Household Textiles Household Appliances Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils Tools and Equipment for House and Garden Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance HEALTH Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment Health Services TRANSPORT COMMUNICATION RECREATION & CULTURE EDUCATION RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES ALL DIVISIONS September 2017 Research Services Department 16

20 Table 3A Component Contribution to Inflation Sep Weight in Monthly Weighted % Contrib'n the CPI Inflation(%) Inflation to Inflation 01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES Food Bread and Cereals Meat Fish and Seafood Milk, Cheese and Eggs Oils and Fats Fruit Vegetables and Starchy Foods Vegetables Starchy Foods Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery Food Products n.e.c Non-Alcoholic Beverages Coffee, Tea and Cocoa Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Fruit and Vegetable Juices ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR Clothing Footwear HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS Rentals for Housing Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTE Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) Household Textiles Household Appliances Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils Tools and Equipment for House and Garden Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance HEALTH Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment Health Services TRANSPORT COMMUNICATION RECREATION & CULTURE EDUCATION RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES ALL DIVISIONS September 2017 Research Services Department 17

21 Table 3B Inflation Comparison Sep-MTH & 2017 Weight in the CPI MTH MTH 01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES Food Bread and Cereals Meat Fish and Seafood Milk, Cheese and Eggs Oils and Fats Fruit Vegetables and Starchy Foods Vegetables Starchy Foods Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery Food Products n.e.c Non-Alcoholic Beverages Coffee, Tea and Cocoa Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Fruit and Vegetable Juices ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR Clothing Footwear HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS Rentals for Housing Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTENA Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) Household Textiles Household Appliances Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils Tools and Equipment for House and Garden Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance HEALTH Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment Health Services TRANSPORT COMMUNICATION RECREATION & CULTURE EDUCATION RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES ALL DIVISIONS September 2017 Research Services Department 18

22 Table 4A Component Contribution to Inflation Sep-QTR Weight in Quarterly Weighted % Contrib'n the CPI Inflation(%) Inflation Inflation 01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES Food Bread and Cereals Meat Fish and Seafood Milk, Cheese and Eggs Oils and Fats Fruit Vegetables and Starchy Foods Vegetables Starchy Foods Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery Food Products n.e.c Non-Alcoholic Beverages Coffee, Tea and Cocoa Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Fruit and Vegetable Juices ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR Clothing Footwear HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS Rentals for Housing Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTE Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) Household Textiles Household Appliances Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils Tools and Equipment for House and Garden Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance HEALTH Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment Health Services TRANSPORT COMMUNICATION RECREATION & CULTURE EDUCATION RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES ALL DIVISIONS September 2017 Research Services Department 19

23 Table 4B Inflation Comparison Sep-QTR & 2017 Weight in the CPI QTR QTR 01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES Food Bread and Cereals Meat Fish and Seafood Milk, Cheese and Eggs Oils and Fats Fruit Vegetables and Starchy Foods Vegetables Starchy Foods Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery Food Products n.e.c Non-Alcoholic Beverages Coffee, Tea and Cocoa Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Fruit and Vegetable Juices ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR Clothing Footwear HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS Rentals for Housing Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTENA Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) Household Textiles Household Appliances Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils Tools and Equipment for House and Garden Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance HEALTH Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment Health Services TRANSPORT COMMUNICATION RECREATION & CULTURE EDUCATION RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES ALL DIVISIONS September 2017 Research Services Department 20

24 Table 5A CYTD Component Contribution to Inflation Jan-Sep Weight in CYTD Weighted % Contrib'n the CPI Inflation(%) Inflation to Inflation 01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES Food Bread and Cereals Meat Fish and Seafood Milk, Cheese and Eggs Oils and Fats Fruit Vegetables and Starchy Foods Vegetables Starchy Foods Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery Food Products n.e.c Non-Alcoholic Beverages Coffee, Tea and Cocoa Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Fruit and Vegetable Juices ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR Clothing Footwear HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS Rentals for Housing Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTE Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) Household Textiles Household Appliances Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils Tools and Equipment for House and Garden Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance HEALTH Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment Health Services TRANSPORT COMMUNICATION RECREATION & CULTURE EDUCATION RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES ALL DIVISIONS September 2017 Research Services Department 21

25 Table 5B CYTD Inflation Comparison Jan-Sep & 2017 Weight in the CPI CYTD CYTD 01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES Food Bread and Cereals Meat Fish and Seafood Milk, Cheese and Eggs Oils and Fats Fruit Vegetables and Starchy Foods Vegetables Starchy Foods Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery Food Products n.e.c Non-Alcoholic Beverages Coffee, Tea and Cocoa Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Fruit and Vegetable Juices ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR Clothing Footwear HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS Rentals for Housing Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTENA Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) Household Textiles Household Appliances Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils Tools and Equipment for House and Garden Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance HEALTH Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment Health Services TRANSPORT COMMUNICATION RECREATION & CULTURE EDUCATION RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES ALL DIVISIONS September 2017 Research Services Department 22

26 Table 6A FYTD Component Contribution to Inflation Apr-Sep Weight in FYTD Weighted % Contrib'n the CPI Inflation(%) Inflation to Inflation 01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES Food Bread and Cereals Meat Fish and Seafood Milk, Cheese and Eggs Oils and Fats Fruit Vegetables and Starchy Foods Vegetables Starchy Foods Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery Food Products n.e.c Non-Alcoholic Beverages Coffee, Tea and Cocoa Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Fruit and Vegetable Juices ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR Clothing Footwear HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS Rentals for Housing Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTE Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) Household Textiles Household Appliances Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils Tools and Equipment for House and Garden Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance HEALTH Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment Health Services TRANSPORT COMMUNICATION RECREATION & CULTURE EDUCATION RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES ALL DIVISIONS September 2017 Research Services Department 23

27 Table 6B FYTD Inflation Comparison Apr-Sep & 2017 Weight in the CPI FYTD FYTD 01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES Food Bread and Cereals Meat Fish and Seafood Milk, Cheese and Eggs Oils and Fats Fruit Vegetables and Starchy Foods Vegetables Starchy Foods Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery Food Products n.e.c Non-Alcoholic Beverages Coffee, Tea and Cocoa Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Fruit and Vegetable Juices ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR Clothing Footwear HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS Rentals for Housing Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTENA Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) Household Textiles Household Appliances Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils Tools and Equipment for House and Garden Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance HEALTH Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment Health Services TRANSPORT COMMUNICATION RECREATION & CULTURE EDUCATION RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES ALL DIVISIONS September 2017 Research Services Department 24

28 Table 7 Annual Component Contribution to Inflation Sep Weight in Annual Weighted % Contrib'n the CPI Inflation(%) Inflation to Inflation 01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES Food Bread and Cereals Meat Fish and Seafood Milk, Cheese and Eggs Oils and Fats Fruit Vegetables and Starchy Foods Vegetables Starchy Foods Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery Food Products n.e.c Non-Alcoholic Beverages Coffee, Tea and Cocoa Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Fruit and Vegetable Juices ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR Clothing Footwear HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS Rentals for Housing Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTEN Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) Household Textiles Household Appliances Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils Tools and Equipment for House and Garden Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance HEALTH Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment Health Services TRANSPORT COMMUNICATION RECREATION & CULTURE EDUCATION RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES ALL DIVISIONS September 2017 Research Services Department 25