US pharmaceutical market: trends, issues, forecast. Doug Long Vice President Industry Relations IMS Health

Transcription

1 US pharmaceutical market: trends, issues, forecast Doug Long Vice President Industry Relations IMS Health

2 2006 Strategic management review The World Pharmaceutical Market All reproduction rights, quotations, broadcasting, publications reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without express written consent of IMS HEALTH. 2

3 About IMS Health Operating in more than 100 countries, IMS is the world s leading provider of information solutions to the pharmaceutical and healthcare industries. With $2.0 Billion in 2006 revenue and more than 50 years of industry experience, IMS offers leading-edge business intelligence products and services that are integral to client s day-to-day operations, including portfolio optimization capabilities; launch and brand management solutions; sales force effectiveness innovations; and managed care and over-the-counter offerings. IMS s Global Consulting and Services group is the industry premier resource for answers and actionable insights that improve ROI and the delivery of quality healthcare worldwide Additional information is available at http// 3

4 The US Pharmaceutical Market Growth is Moderating (Data through May 2007) Percent Change vs. Yr Ago Dollars TRXs Latest 12 Months Latest 6 Months 6.5 YTD Current Month 4

5 Generics ahead of brands in Rx and sales dollar growth Sales growth Twelve months ending 1Q 2007 TRx growth Twelve months ending 1Q % 25% 20% 15% 26.6% 15% 10% 10% 5% 0% 8.9% 9.9% 6.8% MAT 1Q % 0% -5% 5.2% -4.4% 1.2% MAT 1Q % Total market Brands Branded generics Unbranded generics Source: IMS Health, National Sales Perspectives, Mar 2007 Source: IMS Health, National Prescription Audit, Mar

6 Unbranded generics contributed more to sales growth in the MAT to Q than in 2003 Contribution to sales growth percentage of absolute change 2003 MAT 1Q 2007 Unbranded generics 16% Branded generics 12% Brands 73% Unbranded generics 27% Branded generics 11% Brands 62% AC = +$24bn AC = +$23bn Source: IMS Health, National Sales Perspectives, Mar

7 Unbranded generics are gaining traction 100% 90% 80% 70% % Dollars % Total prescriptions dispensed 6% 6% 7% 8% 8% 9% 10% 10% 8% 9% 9% 9% 10% 10% 10% 10% 38% 38% 40% 43% 46% 50% 54% 55% 60% 11% 11% 11% 11% 50% 40% 86% 85% 84% 83% 83% 81% 80% 80% 11% 10% 9% 9% 30% 20% 51% 51% 49% 46% 44% 40% 37% 36% 10% 0% MAT 1Q MAT 1Q 2007 Brands Branded generics Unbranded generics Source: IMS Health, National Prescription Audit Plus, National Sales Perspectives, Mar

8 Growth of generic sales is volatile but above brands now for five years Percent change vs. prior year SALES GROWTH % 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Total market Unbranded generics Brands Branded generics MAT 1Q 2007 Source: IMS Health, National Sales Perspectives, Mar

9 Generics driving total market recovery in Rx growth; Branded generics growth now positive Percent change vs. prior year TRX GROWTH % 15% 10% 5% 0% Total market Unbranded generics Brands Branded generics MAT 1Q % Source: IMS Health, National Prescription Audit, Mar

10 Absolute growth of unbranded generics takes off in the last four years; brands down Absolute growth of prescriptions 300 Unbranded generics Brands Branded generics TRXS MN MAT 1Q 2007 Source: IMS Health, National Prescription Audit, Mar

11 Branded Generics Disaggregated Generics continue to gain traction (Branded generics are allocated to brands and generic) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 11% 10% 11% 12% 12% 13% 15% 15% 89% 90% 89% 88% 88% 87% 85% 85% % Dollars % Total Prescriptions Dispensed MAT 1Q % 47% 48% 51% 53% 57% 61% 62% 54% 53% 52% 50% 47% 43% 39% 38% MAT 1Q 2007 Brands Generics Source: IMS Health, IMS National Prescription Audit, Plus, IMS National Sales Perspectives, Mar

12 MAT 1Q 2007 absolute growth corporations March 2007 update Dollars AC US$bn Total Rx dispensed AC TRxs mn Roche (incl Genentech) 2.6 Teva 53.0 Amgen 2.4 Mylan 27.1 Teva 2.0 Apotex 18.0 AstraZeneca 1.9 Barr (incl Pliva) 13.9 Apotex 1.2 Lupin Pharma 13.9 GlaxoSmithkline 1.1 Dr Reddys 11.4 Novartis (incl Sandoz) 1.0 Ranbaxy 10.8 Abbott 0.8 Watson 10.8 Lilly 0.7 AstraZeneca 10.6 Dr Reddys 0.7 Lannett 10.1 Source: IMS Health, National Sales Perspectives, National Prescription Audit, Mar

13 MAT 1Q 2007 absolute growth - products March 2007 update Dollars AC AC US$mn Total Rx dispensed TRxs mn simvastatin Teva 1,110 azithromycin Greenstone 14.5 clopidogrel Apotex 1,101 levothyroxine Mylan 14.4 Aranesp Amgen 1,023 simvastatin Teva 14.0 Vytorin Merck & SP 876 lisinopril Lupin 11.4 Avastin Genentech 705 sertraline hcl Greenstone 10.0 Cymbalta Lilly 640 clopidogrel Apotex 9.9 Nexium AstraZeneca 639 fluticasone Par 8.8 sertraline hcl Greenstone 624 sertraline hcl Teva 8.2 Lucentis Genentech 614 azithromycin Teva 8.0 Lyrica Pfizer 581 Vytorin Merck & SP 7.6 Source: IMS Health, National Sales Perspectives, National Prescription Audit Plus, Dec

14 Top launches in 2006: seven of the top 10 are generics based on average monthly sales Top launches by avg mthly sales Mfr Month Avg mthly sales 1 clopidogrel bisulf Apotex Aug simvastatin Teva Jun Lucentis Genentech Jul sertraline hcl Greenstone Jun simvastatin Dr Reddys Jun budeprion xl Teva Dec sertraline hcl Teva Aug Atripla BMS/Merck/Gilead Feb Gardasil Merck Jul fluticasone prop Par Feb Source: IMS Health, National Sales Perspectives, Mar

15 Key trends and issues

16 Performance overview

17 Amgen growing at 19%, Roche at 30% and Pfizer still negative but recovering MAT 1Q 2007 Leading corporations US$mn % Share % Change US industry 280, % 1 Pfizer 26, % 2 GlaxoSmithKline 21, % 3 Merck 16, % 4 Johnson & Johnson 16, % 5 AstraZeneca 14, % 6 Amgen 14, % 7 Novartis (incl. Sandoz) 14, % 8 Sanofi-Aventis 11, % 9 Roche (incl. Genentech) 11, % 10 Lilly 9, % Top , % 7% Source: IMS Health, National Sales Perspectives, Mar

18 Teva moving up; counting Novartis, three major generic companies in the top 20 MAT 1Q 2007 Leading corporations US$mn % Share % Change 11 Abbott 9, % 12 Wyeth 8, % 13 Teva 7, % 14 Bristol Myers Squibb 5, % 15 Boehringer Ingelheim 5, % 16 TAP Pharmaceuticals 4, % 17 Schering-Plough 3, % 18 Forest 3, % 19 Watson 3, % 20 Eisai 2, % Top , % Source: IMS Health, National Sales Perspectives, Mar

19 Small companies are contributing more to growth 100% Twelve months ending March % 25% All others 46% 60% 20% Top % 40% 20% 56% Top 10 45% 0% US sales share Contribution to sales growth Source: IMS Health, National Sales Perspectives, Mar

20 Together, Teva and Ivax create a generics giant controlling a fifth of the generics business Sales of unbranded generics by leading corporations Source: IMS Health, National Sales Perspectives, Mar 2007 MAT 1Q 2007 US$mn % Share % Change US industry 28, % 27% 1. Teva (incl Ivax) 5, % 2. Novartis (Sandoz) 2, % 3. Mylan 2, % 4. Watson 1, % 5. Apotex 1, % 6. Pfizer (Greenstone) 1, % 7. Par 1, % 8. Barr Labs (incl Pliva) % 9. Boehringer Ingelheim % 10. Dr Reddy s % Top 10 20, % 20

21 Generics companies dominated the top 10 on a total prescription basis MAT 1Q 2007 Leading corporations TRxs mn % Share % Change US industry 3, % 1. Teva % 2. Pfizer % 3. Novartis (incl. Sandoz) % 4. Mylan % 5. Watson % 6. Barr Labs (incl. Pliva) % 7. Merck % 8. AstraZeneca % 9. GlaxoSmithKline % 10. Mallinckrodt % Top 10 2, % 4.9% Source: IMS Health, National Prescription Audit, MAT March

22 Combination of Teva and Ivax creates a generics giant controlling a fifth of the market Prescriptions of unbranded generics by leading corporations Source: IMS Health, National Prescription Audit, Mar 2007 MAT 1Q 2007 US TRX % Share % Change US industry 2, % 13% 1. Teva (incl. Ivax) % 13% 2. Mylan % 12% 3. Novartis (incl. Sandoz) % 1% 4. Watson % 5% 5. Barr Labs (incl Pliva) % 15% 6. Mallinckrodt % 6% 7. Actavis % -2% 8. Qualitest % 7% 9. Par % 6% 10. Pfizer (incl. Greenstone) % 64% Top 10 1, % 11% 22

23 Lipid regulators are still the leading class while cancer therapies show strong growth MAT 1Q 2007 Leading classes US$mn % Share % Growth US industry 280, % 1. Lipid regulators 21, % 2. Proton pump inhibitors 13, % 3. Anti-depressants 13, % 4. Anti-psychotics 12, % 5. Erythropoietins 10, % 6. Seizure disorders 9, % 7. Monoclonal antibodies 6, % 8. Angiotensin II antagonists 6, % 9. Insulin sensitizers 4, % 10. Calcium blockers 4, % Top , % 9.2% Source: IMS Health, National Sales Perspectives, Mar

24 Lipid lowering agents led all classes by prescription volume in 2006 Leading therapy classes TRXs mn MAT 1Q 2007 % Share % Change US Industry 3, % 1. Lipid lowering agents % 2. Codeine & comb % 3. Anti-depressants % 4. Ace inhibitors % 5. Beta blockers % 6. Proton pump inhibitors % 7. Synthetic thyroid hormone % 8. Seizure disorders % 9. Calcium blockers % 10. Benzodiazepines % Top 10 1, % 7.5% Source: IMS Health, National Prescription Audit, MAT Mar

25 Lipitor continues on top; Nexium, Aranesp and Advair Diskus moving up MAT 1Q 2007 Products Company US$mn % Share % Growth US industry 280, % 1. Lipitor Pfizer 8, % 2. Nexium AstraZeneca 5, % 3. Aranesp Amgen 4, % 4. Advair Diskus GSK 4, % 5. Prevacid TAP 3, % 6. Epogen Amgen 3, % 7. Enbrel Amgen 3, % 8. Singulair Merck 3, % 9. Seroquel AstraZeneca 3, % 10. Neulasta Amgen 3, % Top 10 41, % 10.3% Source: IMS Health, National Sales Perspectives, Mar

26 Among leading prescription products, generics show the highest growth MAT 1Q 2007 Leading Products Company TRXs mn % Share % Change US industry 3, % 1. Lipitor Pfizer % 2. HYCD/APAP Mallinckrodt % 3. Toprol-XL AstraZeneca % 4. Norvasc Pfizer % 5. HYCD/APAP Watson % 6. amoxicillin Teva % 7. Nexium AstraZeneca % 8. Lexapro Forest % 9. Synthroid Abbott % 10. Singulair Merck % Top % 4.2% Source: IMS Health, National Prescription Audit, MAT Mar

27 Future outlook

28 US market five year outlook : opportunities and challenges Future NCEs, active pipeline of specialty products, biologics, and vaccines Medicare drug benefit Strong demand fueled by aging population Future patent expirations/generics Weaker than expected performance of NCEs in 2005 Safety concerns Decline of detailing Therapeutic substitution CAGR 5-8% 28

29 Thank you! Doug Long Vice President Industry Relations IMS Health phone: