Current Trends in ODS Production and Supply

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1 Current Trends in ODS Production and Supply Erik Pedersen Tenth Annual Financial Agents Workshop The World Bank Washington, D.C. June 27 to June 28, 26

2 Apparent export in 25 by CFC producing countries to Global CFC supply CFC is now (June 26) produced in the following countries: Non-Article 5 countries: Greece, Spain and U.S. Article 5 countries: China, India, Republic of Korea Argentina and Venezuela. Total reported global CFC production in 25 was ODP tons. Total estimated Article 5 CFC consumption in 25 was about 25, ODP tons, and essential uses nominated for non-article 5 use for was 5, ODP tons,

3 25 CFC production and consumption as per Art. 7 data reporting (in ODP tons) Country/region EU* USA* Argentina* China India Korea, Republic* Korea, DPR Mexico* Venezuela* Total Production 6, ,657 18,72 11,263 4,5 Closed 6,21 2,451 51,596 *Only 24 production and consumption figures available. Consumption 5, 1,153 1,657 13,22 4,73 4,5 1,64 2,451* 33,658 Export 1, ,5 7,19 4,417 17,938

4 Country CFC Production Phaseout Agreements with the MLF Argentina China 18,75 13,5 7, India Korea DPR Korea, Rep of* Mexico Venezuela Total Available for export 11,294 4,61 5,86 2,913 44,838 14, 7,342 4,61 2,913 29,83 8,2 12,66 2, ,15 * Rep. of Korea is not requesting funding from the MLF. Production on is estimated as maximum allowed production under the MP. The additional 15% allowed for basic domestic need is not included. Korea has so far not reported export 3,389 1,38 2,259 1,38 1,13 1,

5 CFC-11 and CFC-12 production 24 data Country Argentina China India Korea DPR Korea, Rep of* Mexico Venezuel a *Mexico and Korea not incl. CFC ,65 2, ,479* CFC ,324 1,611 3,276 3,115* CFC-113 1,99 * 1,99 CFC-114 CFC

6 Total CFC-11 and CFC-12 Production Country Argentina China India (estimated) Korea DPR Korea, Rep of* Mexico Venezuela CFC , , Data CFC ,714 1,363 2,23 23,858 CFC- 114 CFC- 113 * CFC-115

7 24 CFC consumption reported by non-cfc producers (25 figures in bracket) Countries > 1, ODP tons ODP tons Countries < 1, ODP tons ODP Tons Algeria 1,45 Bangladesh 294 Brazil 1,87 Chile 23 Colombia Congo, Dem Rep 329 Egypt 821 1,47 Romania 116 Indonesia 3,925 Serbia 282 Iran 3,471 Tunisia 271 Malaysia 1,126 Turkey 257 Nigeria 2,116 UAE 291 Pakistan 85 Yemen 746 Philippines (1,49) 1,389 Saudi Arabia 1,15 Syria 928 Thailand 1,358 Total 21,126 Total 2,816

8 Phase-out schedules for WB-implemented National Ozone Phaseout Plans Countries Antigua and Barbudas The Bahamas Ecuador Indonesia (UNDP/WB) Jordan Malaysia Philippines Thailand Tunisia Turkey Vietnam Total , ,59 1, , , ,36 1, , , , , ,329

9 CFC Phaseout schedules for other medium volume ODS consuming countries Countries Algeria* Brazil Colombia Egypt* Lebanon Nigeria Pakistan* Saudi Arabia* Syria* Iran Total 12,147 1,2 3,72 2,782 2,16 * MP mandated phase-out schedule,

10 Supply and demand outlook based on Article 5 production and consumption agreements and reported 23 data Apparent availability of CFC for export by CFC producing Art. 5 countries 14, 8,2 2,3 1,15 95 Demand by Bank implemented NOPPs 8,479 6,93 3,255 1,749 1,329 Demand by other larger CFC consuming countries with phasout agreements 15,22 12,287 4,629 3,195 2,499 Low Volume Consuming Countries (baseline <3 tons ) (62 reported) 2,73 2, Very Low Volume Consuming Countries (baseline <1 tons) (2 reported) Total estimated ODS consumption by none CFC producers 26,441 21,14 8,711 5,771 4,655 Balance before EU export -12,441-12,94-6,441-4,621-3,75

11 CFC Production Conclusions CFC production phase-out is accelerated by a number of producing countries, especially by EU and South American countries. MLF Agreements are playing an important role. Provided all the agreed MLF ODS phaseout plans are implemented according to agreements, CFC demand also will decline rapidly from 25 and forward. Based on existing MLF agreement, their will be a shortfall in CFC supply in 26 and onwards, however, it seems that a number of countries are accelerating their CFC phaseout and CFC consumption is well below what is allowed under the agreements.

12 Conclusions (cont.) In 26 and after, total demand for CFC can only be covered if CFC production in EU and US remain. It seems that stockpiles of CFC exist in many countries covering the present gap. However, there is no or very limited information available. It seems that the production in EU will be reduced further in 26. However, EU might still continue to produce to meet BDN. Waiting to see the situation

13 Halon Production and Consumption Production of halons Only Rep. of Korea produce halons 1211 and 131. China continue to produce halon 131 but stopped halon 1211 production by Jan 1, 26. Halon 242 is no longer produced. Recycled halons and stock of newly produced halons in China would be able to cover some of the residual demand, especially for critical uses. The countries reporting halon imports in 24 are: Mexico, Georgia, Pakistan Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Oman Democratic Republic of Congo, Nigeria, Somalia, Sierra Leone Imports (4,312 ODP tons) exceeded by far the exports by the two halon producing countries (86 ODP tons). Most of the imports could be recycled halons from EU. Countries should review the sources before allowing imports.

14 Conclusions There is no need to produce new halons at present. Existing demand for halon 1211 and halon 131 for civil aviation can be covered by recycled halons. Most military organizations are taking care of their own needs and stockpiling for future uses. Commercial shipping is the most critical area and will probably be forced to change to no halons. Demand for recycled halon 131 can be covered by existing halon banks in developed countries and halon 1211 from China, There is a significant problem in making halon recycling operational in developing countries.