PREVIEW OF REGISTRY-SPECIFIC AND AGGREGATED RELATIVE SURVIVAL ESTIMATES IN CANCER IN NORTH AMERICA

Transcription

1 PREVIEW OF REGISTRY-SPECIFIC AND AGGREGATED RELATIVE SURVIVAL ESTIMATES IN CANCER IN NORTH AMERICA

2 CINA SURVIVAL Authors: Chris Johnson, Deborah Hurley, Angela Mariotto, Reda Wilson, Donna Turner, Hannah Weir It takes a village: Bin Huang, Diane Nishri, all SATF members Steve Scoppa, Joe Zou, Rick Firth, others at IMS 2

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4 SURVIVAL ANALYSIS TASK FORCE NAACCR Strategic Management Plan Priority Area 3: Research and Data Use Goal 1, Objective 3: Facilitate the development and availability of state and province-specific relative survival data. Expected Outcomes: Cancer survival estimates on a wider population than are currently available will be provided by NAACCR. 4

5 METHODS REGISTRY INCLUSION 1. Active consent 2. Meet CINA incidence criteria for all relevant years 3. Either 1. Meet SEER standard for follow-up (90%) or 2. Ascertain deaths through study cutoff date 1. State and NDI linkages (US) 2. Provincial death linkage (CD) 6

6 NOV 2014 CFD SECONDARY USE OF DATA 3.4 Publication of registry-specific and aggregated relative survival estimates in Cancer in North America. 7

7 NAACCR VITAL STATUS FOLLOW-UP ACTIVITIES FORM 8

8 RECONCILING NAACCR AND NPCR FOLLOW-UP ACTIVITIES FORMS 9

9 CHOOSING YEAR OF LAST FOLLOW-UP Follow Up Through: Registry Type Canadian NPCR SEER Total

10 RULES FOR INCLUSION IN CINA SURVIVAL NOV 2014 CFD 1. Active consent 2. Meet CINA incidence criteria for all years, Either 1. Meet SEER standard for follow-up (90%) or 2. Ascertain deaths through 2011: 1. State and NDI linkages (US) 2. Provincial death linkage (CD) 11

11 CINA SURVIVAL NOV 2014 CFD 12

12 METHODS SEER*Stat 13

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15 RELATIVE SURVIVAL 101 Measure of excess mortality experienced by cancer patients Relative Survival = Observed Survival (patients) Expected Survival (population) Theoretical measure represents cancer survival in the absence of other causes of death 16

16 RELATIVE SURVIVAL 101 EXPECTED SURVIVAL Survival probability of a population similar to the patient group but free of the cancer under study Estimated from life tables matched to the cancer patients by age, sex, year Assumes that life tables are representative of patients other-cause survival 17

17 INTERNATIONAL CANCER SURVIVAL STANDARD ICSS Standard 1 Everything else All Sites Combined ICSS Standard 3 Hodgkin Lymphoma Testis ICSS Standard 2 Brain & Other Nervous System Cervix Uteri Melanoma of the Skin Thyroid 18

18 International Cancer Survival Standards (ICSS) Weights used in SEER*Stat using the Five Default Age Groups Age Standard for Survival Population Weights (15-44, 45-54, 55-64, 65-74, 75+) ICSS 1 ICSS 2 ICSS years 7,000 28,000 60, years 12,000 17,000 10, years 23,000 21,000 10, years 29,000 20,000 10, years 29,000 14,000 10,000 19

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21 RESULTS: WHAT WILL CINA SURVIVAL LOOK LIKE? PDF will include 105 pages of tables 22

22 SECTION A 5-year relative survival ratios for Cancers diagnosed and followed through 2011 By Sex, All Races 1. NAACCR U.S. Combined 2. NAACCR Canadian Combined 3. NAACCR North American Combined 23

23 5-Year Age-Standardized Relative Survival Ratios (RSR) for Cancers Diagnosed Complete Method, Follow-Up Through 2011 By Sex, All Races Registry=NAACCR U.S. Combined Males and Females Males Females SiteCategories N RSR 95% CI N RSR 95% CI N RSR 95% CI All Sites 6,082, ,128, ,953, Brain & Other Nervous System 81, , , Breast 914, , , Cervix Uteri 55, , Colon & Rectum 602, , , Corpus & Uterus, NOS 193, , Esophagus 66, , , Hodgkin Lymphoma 37, , , Kidney & Renal Pelvis 215, , , Larynx 52, , , Leukemia 166, , , Liver & Intrahepatic Bile Duct 100, , , Lung & Bronchus 859, , , Melanoma of the Skin 265, , ,

24 5-Year Age-Standardized Relative Survival Ratios (RSR) for Cancers Diagnosed Complete Method, Follow-Up Through 2011 By Sex, All Races Registry=NAACCR Canadian Combined Males and Females Males Females SiteCategories N RSR 95% CI N RSR 95% CI N RSR 95% CI All Sites 685, , , Brain & Other Nervous System 9, , , Breast 94, , Cervix Uteri 6, , Colon & Rectum 88, , , Corpus & Uterus, NOS 21, , Esophagus 7, , , Hodgkin Lymphoma 3, , , Kidney & Renal Pelvis 20, , , Larynx 4, , Leukemia 20, , , Liver & Intrahepatic Bile Duct 8, , , Lung & Bronchus 92, , , Melanoma of the Skin 25, , ,

25 5-Year Age-Standardized Relative Survival Ratios (RSR) for Cancers Diagnosed Complete Method, Follow-Up Through 2011 By Sex, All Races Registry=NAACCR North American Combined Males and Females Males Females SiteCategories N RSR 95% CI N RSR 95% CI N RSR 95% CI All Sites 6,767, ,484, ,283, Brain & Other Nervous System 91, , , Breast 1,009, , ,000, Cervix Uteri 61, , Colon & Rectum 691, , , Corpus & Uterus, NOS 214, , Esophagus 73, , , Hodgkin Lymphoma 41, , , Kidney & Renal Pelvis 235, , , Larynx 56, , , Leukemia 187, , , Liver & Intrahepatic Bile Duct 108, , , Lung & Bronchus 951, , , Melanoma of the Skin 291, , ,

26 SECTION A (CONT.) 5-year relative survival ratios for Cancers diagnosed and followed through 2011, U.S. 4. By Sex, White 5. By Sex, Black 27

27 5-Year Age-Standardized Relative Survival Ratios (RSR) for Cancers Diagnosed Complete Method, Follow-Up Through 2011 NAACCR U.S. Registries, by Sex TableShellCats=White Males and Females Males Females SiteCategories N RSR 95% CI N RSR 95% CI N RSR 95% CI All Sites 5,114, ,628, ,486, Brain & Other Nervous System 72, , , Breast 763, , , Cervix Uteri 42, , Colon & Rectum 498, , , Corpus & Uterus, NOS 163, , Esophagus 57, , , Hodgkin Lymphoma 30, , , Kidney & Renal Pelvis 182, , , Larynx 43, , , Leukemia 145, , , Liver & Intrahepatic Bile Duct 74, , , Lung & Bronchus 736, , , Melanoma of the Skin 252, , ,

28 5-Year Age-Standardized Relative Survival Ratios (RSR) for Cancers Diagnosed Complete Method, Follow-Up Through 2011 NAACCR U.S. Registries, by Sex, TableShellCats=Black Males and Females Males Females SiteCategories N RSR 95% CI N RSR 95% CI N RSR 95% CI All Sites 647, , , Brain & Other Nervous System 5, , , Breast 101, , , Cervix Uteri 8, , Colon & Rectum 71, , , Corpus & Uterus, NOS 19, , Esophagus 7, , , Hodgkin Lymphoma 4, , , Kidney & Renal Pelvis 23, , , Larynx 7, , , Leukemia 12, , , Liver & Intrahepatic Bile Duct 14, , , Lung & Bronchus 91, , , Melanoma of the Skin 1,

29 SECTION B By primary site category (24 sites plus All Sites) a) Table by registry b) Table by registry, U.S., White c) Table by registry, U.S., Black 75 tables 30

30 5-Year Age-Standardized Relative Survival Ratios (RSR) for Cancers Diagnosed Complete Method, Follow-Up Through 2011 By Registry SiteCategories=Colon & Rectum Males and Females Males Females Registry N RSR 95% CI N RSR 95% CI N RSR 95% CI NAACCR U.S. Combined 602, , , NAACCR Canadian Combined 88, , , NAACCR North American Combined 691, , , Alabama 15, , , Alaska 1, California 99, , , CA - Greater Bay 19, , , CA - Los Angeles 26, , , Colorado 8, , , Connecticut 12, , , Georgia 26, , , GA - Atlanta 7, , , Hawaii 4, , , Idaho 4, , , Iowa 11, , ,

31 5-Year Age-Standardized Relative Survival Ratios (RSR) for Cancers Diagnosed Complete Method, Follow-Up Through 2011 NAACCR U.S. Registries, by Primary Site Category and Registry, White SiteCategories=Colon & Rectum TableShellCats=White Males and Females Males Females Registry N RSR 95% CI N RSR 95% CI N RSR 95% CI NAACCR U.S. Combined 498, , , Alabama 11, , , Alaska 1, California 77, , , CA - Greater Bay 13, , , CA - Los Angeles 18, , , Colorado 7, , , Connecticut 11, , , Georgia 17, , , GA - Atlanta 4, , , Hawaii 1, Idaho 3, , , Iowa 11, , ,

32 5-Year Age-Standardized Relative Survival Ratios (RSR) for Cancers Diagnosed Complete Method, Follow-Up Through 2011 NAACCR U.S. Registries, by Primary Site Category and Registry, Black SiteCategories=Colon & Rectum TableShellCats=Black Males and Females Males Females Registry N RSR 95% CI N RSR 95% CI N RSR 95% CI NAACCR U.S. Combined 71, , , Alabama 3, , , Alaska * * * California 7, , , CA - Greater Bay 1, CA - Los Angeles 3, , , Colorado Connecticut Georgia 7, , , GA - Atlanta 2, , , Hawaii * * 9. Idaho * Iowa * * 33

33 SECTION C By primary site category (24 sites plus All Sites) a) Table by race, stage, age; U.S. b) Table by stage, age; Canada c) Table by stage, age; North America 75 tables on 25 pages 34

34 5-Year Age-Standardized Relative Survival Ratios (RSR) for Cancers Diagnosed Follow-Up Through 2011 By Registry, Method, Race (US), Stage, and Age SiteCategories=Colon & Rectum Registry=NAACCR U.S. Combined Males and Females Males Females TableShellCats N RSR 95% CI N RSR 95% CI N RSR 95% CI Total 602, , , Race White 498, , , Black 71, , , Stage Localized 243, , , Regional 209, , , Distant 119, , , Unknown 39, , , Age Group , * 16, * 15, * , * 44, * 37, * , * 72, * 53, * , * 80, * 65, * , * 95, * 121, * SiteCategories=Colon & Rectum Registry=NAACCR Canadian Combined Males and Females Males Females TableShellCats N RSR 95% CI N RSR 95% CI N RSR 95% CI Total 88, , , Stage Localized 8, , , Regional 10, , , Distant 6, , , Unknown 6, , , Age Group , * 1, * 1, * , * 5, * 4, * , * 11, * 7, * , * 14, * 9, * , * 16, * 17, * SiteCategories=Colon & Rectum Registry=NAACCR North American Combined Males and Females Males Females TableShellCats N RSR 95% CI N RSR 95% CI N RSR 95% CI Total 691, , , Stage Localized 252, , , Regional 220, , , Distant 125, , , Unknown 45, , , Age Group , * 18, * 17, * , * 49, * 41, * , * 83, * 60, * , * 94, * 75, * , * 111, * 139, * 35

35 5-Year Age-Standardized Relative Survival Ratios (RSR) for Cancers Diagnosed Follow-Up Through 2011 By Registry, Method, Race (US), Stage, and Age SiteCategories=Colon & Rectum Registry=NAACCR U.S. Combined Males and Females Males Females TableShellCats N RSR 95% CI N RSR 95% CI N RSR 95% CI Total 602, , , Race White 498, , , Black 71, , , Stage Localized 243, , , Regional 209, , , Distant 119, , , Unknown 39, , , Age Group , * 16, * 15, * , * 44, * 37, * , * 72, * 53, * , * 80, * 65, * , * 95, * 121, * 36

36 SiteCategories=Colon & Rectum Registry=NAACCR Canadian Combined Males and Females Males Females TableShellCats N RSR 95% CI N RSR 95% CI N RSR 95% CI Total 88, , , Stage Localized 8, , , Regional 10, , , Distant 6, , , Unknown 6, , , Age Group , * 1, * 1, * , * 5, * 4, * , * 11, * 7, * , * 14, * 9, * , * 16, * 17, * SiteCategories=Colon & Rectum Registry=NAACCR North American Combined Males and Females Males Females TableShellCats N RSR 95% CI N RSR 95% CI N RSR 95% CI Total 691, , , Stage Localized 252, , , Regional 220, , , Distant 125, , , Unknown 45, , , Age Group , * 18, * 17, * , * 49, * 41, * , * 83, * 60, * , * 94, * 75, * , * 111, * 139, * 37

37 RESULTS: WHAT WILL CINA SURVIVAL LOOK LIKE? Plus each registry will get detailed report! 38

38 WHAT IS LEFT TO DO? All sites combined? Site weighted estimate? Canadian registries no national death linkage Send individual registry reports for review Finally, publish CINA Survival 39