MALAYSIA MYANMAR PALM OIL TRADE FAIR & SEMINAR POTS MYANMAR 2013 TAN SRI DATUK DR YUSOF BASIRON CEO, MALAYSIAN PALM OIL COUNCIL

Transcription

1 MALAYSIA MYANMAR PALM OIL TRADE FAIR & SEMINAR POTS MYANMAR 2013 TAN SRI DATUK DR YUSOF BASIRON CEO, MALAYSIAN PALM OIL COUNCIL PALM OIL IN THE GLOBAL OILS & FATS MARKET 28 JUNE 2013 TRADERS HOTEL, YANGON, MYAMNAR

2 PRESENTATION OUTLINE 1. Global Oils & Fats Production World oils & fats demand and supply 3. Demand by major users 4. Growth trend of oils & fats supply 5. Role of Malaysian Palm Oil 6. Brief overview of Myanmar oils & fats situation 7. Palm Oil & Health The Facts 8. Conclusions

3 WORLD OILS & FATS PRODUCTION ,000 50,000 40,000 ( 000 mt) 30,000 20,000 10, Palm Oil 11,013 21,874 46,011 53,446 Soybean Oil 16,097 25,531 40,217 41,758 Rapeseed Oil 8,160 14,470 23,966 24,444 Sunflower Oil 7,869 9,700 12,551 14,831 Others 37,752 43,130 49,813 51,776

4 WORLD OILS & FATS CONSUMPTION Palm Oil Soybean Oil Rapeseed Oil Sunflower Oil Others Total PopulaRon (Billion) Gross World Product (Trillion USD)

5 WORLD OILS & FATS CONSUMPTION (US$ Trillion) Consumption (Million MT) Global Population (Billion) Gross World Product (US$ Trillion)

6 OILS & FATS CONSUMPTION BY MAJOR COUNTRIES 2012 Country PopulaRon (Million) ConsumpRon (million MT) Kg/year China 1,354 34, EU , India 1,241 18, USA , Indonesia 242 8, Brazil 197 7, Pakistan 182 3, ArgenRna 41 3, Russia 143 3, Egypt 84 1,

7 OILS & FATS CONSUMPTION BY MAJOR COUNTRIES Ø Consumption in each country tends to favour locally produced oils and fats. Ø In North America, Europe and the Soviet Union, annual seed crops are the main sources of oil Ø In tropical countries, coconut oil and palm oil, together with groundnut oil, are the main types produced and consumed.

8 OILS & FATS CONSUMPTION Ø World consumption of oils and fats has grown steadily during the last twenty five years. Consumption over the last five years has increased from 152 million tonnes in 2007 to 183 million tonnes in Ø The growth rate in recent years has been higher than the rate that prevailed in the 1990's due to the incremental demand especially from the biofuels market.

9 OILS & FATS CONSUMPTION BY MAJOR COUNTRIES Ø For consumption, the list is headed by two rich countries (Europe and USA) and by two highly populated countries (China and India). Countries in this list have high populations (mostly in excess of 100 million) and/or are significant producers of palm oil or soybean oil. Ø Three countries (Bangladesh, India, and Nigeria) have lower levels of Kg/person. However it has to be noted that lipid consumption for food purposes comes also from sources such as dairy products (cheese, cream) other than butter, from meat and fish, and from nuts and chocolate.

10 OILS & FATS CONSUMPTION Ø In the period from 1999 to 2005, annual increases in consumption were typically in the range of 4 to 5 million tonnes and arose primarily from the growth in demand for oils and fats as a food. Annual increases in consumption thereafter have been higher and reflect the additional use of oils and fats as biofuel feedstock. Ø World average per capita consumption of all oils and fats has also grown progressively each year during the last decade from a level of 18.9 kg in 2001 to 25.9 kg in Consumption per capita is closely related to income.

11 OILS & FATS CONSUMPTION Ø In 2012, per capita consumption was 55 kg and 59 kg in the US and the EU27 respectively, compared to 15 kg and 25 kg for India and China respectively. Ø At low income levels, elasticity of demand is high, whereas at high income levels, elasticity is reduced to values close to zero. Ø The highest increases in consumption will be in low to middle income countries, where increasing per capita income can combine with relatively high rates of population growth. Ø These high growth countries will tend to be in the developing world where palm oil consumption has traditionally been strong.

12 CONSUMPTION PALM OIL VS OTHER OILS Others 46% Palm Oil 14% Soybean Oil 20% Others 38% Palm Oil 19% Soybean Oil 22% Sunflower Oil 10% Rapeseed Oil 10% Sunflower Oil 8% Rapeseed Oil 13%

13 CONSUMPTION PALM OIL VS OTHER OILS Others 29% Palm Oil 27% Others 28% Palm Oil 28% Sunflower Oil 7% Soybean Oil 23% Sunflower Oil 8% Soybean Oil 23% Rapeseed Oil 14% Rapeseed Oil 13%

14 PALM OIL IN THE GLOBAL OILS & FATS MARKET Ø Palm oil is the largest produced vegetable oil in the world Ø In 2004 palm oil pushed soybean oil into second place as the most produced oils & fats in the world Ø Palm is generally the cheapest commodity vegetable oil and also the cheapest oil to produce and to refine.

15 PALM OIL IN THE GLOBAL OILS & FATS MARKET Ø By reason of its availability and (relatively) low cost, it is an important component of the increasing intake of oils and fats in the developing world Ø It is a versatile oil used not only in food applications but also non food such as detergents, pharmaceuticals and biofuels. Ø Palm oil is widely used in the food industry, for example, palm olein used as a frying oil and palm stearin as hardstock in the production of spreads and cooking fats.

16 PALM OIL IN THE GLOBAL OILS AND FATS MARKET Ø A mid-fraction also produced during fractionation is used as a cocoa butter equivalent (CBE). Ø Palm oil is being increasingly used for non-food purposes. In 2000 when production was 24.3 million MT, 3.5 million MT (15%) was used for industrial purposes. In 2011 production rose to 51.1million MT and 11.7 million MT (23%) was used for industrial purposes. Ø When palm biodiesel becomes a widely traded commodity, the proportion used for industrial purposes will rise even further. Ø Without the large volume of exported palm oil from Malaysia, there would be a major problem in meeting world demand for vegetable oil.

17 PALM OIL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION Ø ProducRon of palm oil in 2012 was almost million MT and 90% of palm oil comes mainly from Malaysia and Indonesia Ø Other producers are Thailand, Nigeria and Columbia Ø ConsumpRon of palm oil comes mainly from China, India, EU, Pakistan, USA and Thailand

18 PALM OIL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION Ø India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka with a combined annual consumpron of 9.8 million MT is the biggest regional consumer of palm oil. It is clear how important imported palm oil is to the highly- populated Indian sub- conrnent Ø The USA was not a significant consumer of palm oil and in the past denigrated the oil as a saturated tropical oil. However. consumpron has risen in recent years as American food manufacturers revised their recipes to lower the level of trans unsaturated acids produced through parral hydrogenaron of soybean oil

19 WORLD OILS & FATS PRODUCTION ,000 50,000 40,000 ( 000 MT) 30,000 20,000 10,000 - Palm Oil Soybean Oil Rapeseed Oil Sunflower Oil Others Series1 53,446 41,758 24,444 14,831 51,776

20 OILS & FATS EXPORTS Others 34% Sunflower Oil 9% Rapeseed Oil 7% Soybean Oil 14% Palm Oil 36% Sunflower Oil 8% Rapeseed Oil 5% Others 26% Soybean Oil 19% Palm Oil 42%

21 OILS & FATS EXPORTS Sunflower Oil 7% Rapeseed Oil 5% Soybean Oil 15% Others 18% Palm Oil 55% Sunflower Oil 10% Rapeseed Oil 6% Soybean Oil 13% Others 15% Palm Oil 56%

22 NET IMPORTING AND EXPORTING COUNTRIES FOR OILS & FATS (2012) REFLECTING REAL AVAILABILITY China EU- 27 India North Africa Pakistan Other Bangladesh Iran Mexico Egypt Japan Turkey South Africa South Korea Nigeria Taiwan Brazil Ukraine Canada Philippines Russia ArgenRna Net Exporters Net Importers Indonesia Malaysia - 15,000-10,000-5, ,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 ('000 MT)

23 PALM OIL PRICE DISCOUNT VS SOYBEAN OIL USD/MT USD/MT (50) Palm Oil Price (USD/MT) Soybean Oil Price (USD/MT) Discount (100)

24 TRACKING CPO PRICES AGAINST STOCK USAGE RATIO 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, SUR vs CPO Price F 16.00% 14.00% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% SUR CPO Price Forecasted CPO Average Forecasted CPO Higher Forcasted CPO Lower

25 WORLD CULTIVATED AREA OF OIL SEEDS Land Use Type Total Area (mil ha) As % Area Total Agricultural Land Oil Seeds Soybean Rapeseed Sunflower Oil Palm Coconut Other Oil Seeds Malaysian Palm Oil percent of total land area planted with oil seeds Only 0.29 percent of world agricultural land is used for palm oil and Malaysian palm oil only took 0.1 percent Source: FAO, Oil World (2012), MPOB (2012)

26 SCARCITY OF LAND EXPANSION VS PRODUCTIVITY Higher palm oil yields a solution to land scarcity Soybean Sunflower Rapeseed Oil Palm Oil Crop Production (Mn T) % of Total Production Average Oil Yield (t/ha/year) Total Area (Mn Ha) % Area Soybean Sunflower Rapeseed Oil Palm Total Note: 1 for palm oil and palm kernel oil 2 for 7 major oils (groundnut, coconut, cottonseed and above oils) Source: Oil World, Dec 2012

27 The FAO Food Price For 2012 as a whole, the Index averaged 212, 7.0 percent less than in 2011, with the sharpest declines registered by sugar(17.1 percent), dairy products (14.5 percent) and oils (10.7 percent). The 2012 price falls were much more modest for cereals (2.4 percent) and meat (1.1 percent). The FAO Oils/Fats Price Index For 2012 as a whole, the index averaged 225, which compares with 252 in The main reason for the fall in December is the continued build-up of large global inventories of palm oil as abundant production in Southeast Asia coincided with a protracted weakness of import demand. Source:

28 World s Fastest Growing Economies

29 Oil palm is the most efficient, effective and highest yielding among all vegetable oils produced Million ha / Million MT Palm oil Sunflower oil Rapeseed oil Soybean Oil Land Area (mil ha) Production (mil MT) Source: Oil World, December 2012

30 MALAYSIAN PALM OIL EXPORTS 18,500, ,000,000 17,500,000 17,000,000 (MT) 16,500,000 16,000,000 15,500,000 15,000,000 14,500,000 14,000, (MT) 15,412,512 15,880,744 16,664,068 17,993,265 17,575,486

31 MALAYSIA PALM OIL MONTHLY PRODUCTION, EXPORT & END STOCK (MAY) 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 0 Source : MPOB Data Jan '2011 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan '2012 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan '2013 Feb Mar Apr May Stock Export Prod

32 MYANMAR OILS & FATS SITUATION Year Consumption ( 000 MT) Production ( 000 MT) Import ( 000 MT)

33 MYANMAR OILS & FATS CONSUMPTION ( 000 MT) Palm Oil Sesame Oil Groundnut Oil Sunflower Oil Soybean Oil

34 MYANMAR OILS & FATS CONSUMPTION, PRODUCTION& 1000 IMPORT ( 000 MT) Consumption Production Import

35 PALM OIL AND HEALTH THE FACTS

36

37 Areas of Opportunities for Malaysian Palm Oil A MALAYSIAN PRODUCT INNOVATION

38

39 Innovation comes in many forms and all shapes and sizes! The practice of frying foods to increase palatability and increase consumer appreciation is rated among the top 20 innovations in the food industry National Academy of Science, Royal Society, United Kingdom, Sept.

40 Fatty Acid Profile & Oxidative Stability Palm AOM Lard AOM Cotton AOM Soybean AOM Com AOM Sunflower AOM Canola AOM Low Lin canolca (C5) AOM Low lin Soy AOM Natreon Sun AOM Natreon Canola AOM % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Source: Sats Oleic 18:1 Linoleic 18:2 Linolenic 18:3

41 Talking Points for Slide 2: A variety of commercially available oils were evaluated for their oxidative stability. Palm olein is featured as the oil with the highest oxidative stability (AOM 50). An animal fat such as lard, although has somewhat similar fatty acid composition has only half the oxidative stability (AOM 25). High oleic acid varieties which are mostly GMO oils, can have high oxidative stability but their costs may be prohibitive for many applications. The possibility of blended oils must thus be explored and we are reminded by the wisdom of a senior US scientist, Dr. Gary List: (see next slide)

42 OXIDATIVE STABILITY OF OILS PV or O2 uptake Lard Soya bean Palm Olein hrs. 0 0 hrs. 0 hrs. 10 hrs. 15 hrs. 20 hrs. 25 hrs. 30 hrs. 40 hrs. 45 hrs. 50 hrs. Time taken for Peak Peroxide Development An animal fat such as lard, despite low linoleic acid has limited frying capabilities. Palm olein is highly stable and a blend of olein with soybean oil may help provide better frying characteristics and consumer acceptance.

43 Deterioration during Frying Palm Olein is Superior To Peanut Oil For Deep Frying Oil hours FFA % Smoke point C Peanut Oil Palm olein Viscosity (CP) Polymers % Foam Index * Longer shelf life of fried food with no rancid or off flavors produced for longer period as compared to other oils. Fried Packaged Products: Minimum of 6 to 12 months shelf life, therefore can stay much longer on the shelf as compared to foods fried in other oils.

44 PALM OIL FRACTIONS WITH DIFFERENT IODINE VALUE RANGES FOR FOODS Palm Oil IV Olein IV Hard Stearin IV Super Olein IV Soft PMF IV Soft Stearin IV Super Stearin IV Top Olein IV Hard PMF IV Various tailor made fractions from palm are ideal for direct applications or as blended products throughout the food and frying industries.

45 What Happens When A Population Is Exposed to Palm Oil As The Primary Dietary Fat Consumed Over 20 years Results from an on-going Collaborative Population Study (Unpublished, 2013) National University of Malaysia and MPOC Sundram et al. 2013

46 SUBJECT CHARACTERISTICS Subjects characteristics Females (n=133) Males (n=73) Mean ± SD Mean ± SD Age (yr) ± ± Weight (kg) ± ± Height (cm) ± ± 20.0 BMI (kg/m 2 ) ± ± 4.19 Waist Circumference (cm) 79.4 ± ±12.99 Body Fat (%) ± ±6.12 Sundram et al. 2013

47 % DISTRIBUTION AND USE OF COOKING OIL IN DAILY DIET Rice Bran Oil, 0.6 Canola, 0.6 Corn, 3.6 Sunflower, soya, etc., 13% Olive, 0.6 Canola Palm, 81.7% Corn Olive Palm Rice Bran Oil Sunflower Sundram et al. 2013

48 LDL particle size is a crucial determinant of CVD risk. Small LDL particles are the most atherogenic How diet influences LDL size is an active on-going research question, largely still unexplored!

49 The long term (>20 years) consumption of palm oil has similar effects as PUFA oils on LDL particles but on HDL particles, palm oil has a beneficial outcome not seen with PUFA oils. Lipoprotein ParRcle Size unit Palm Oil Group Other PUFA Oils P value Total LDL nmol/l 1131± ±416 NS Large LDL nmol/l 181±87 181±121 NS Medium LDL nmol/l 542± ±249 NS Small LDL nmol/l 407± ±363 NS Total HDL µmol/l 31±5 29±3 p=0.04 Small HDL µmol/l 16±5 13±4 p=0.01 Sundram et al. 2013

50 CORRELATIONS: CARBOHYDRATE INTAKE AND LIPOPROTEIN PARTICLE SIZE r-value p-value Total LDL Large LDL Medium LDL Small LDL In our regular diet, it is the carbohydrate content rather than fats that trigger adverse outcomes for LDL particles and coronary heart disease. Sundram et al. 2013

51 CORRELATIONS: FAT INTAKE (PRIMARILY PALM OIL) AND LDL PARTICLE SIZE Total LDL NS Large LDL NS Medium LDL Small LDL NS Fat consumption is the form of palm oil had no adverse outcomes on LDL particles after >20 years consumption Sundram et al. 2013

52 CONCLUSIONS Malaysia will be the source of affordable, healthy and sustainable supply of oils & fats in Myanmar Solution Provider: Consumers get strategic solutions from palm oil: food security, transfree products and competitive prices.

53 CONCLUSIONS Dominance of Palm Oil Increasing: Palm oil continues to be an attractive long term commodity for producers and consumers. Investment in oil palm cultivation should continue in the long term. Solution Provider: Consumers get strategic solutions from palm oil: food security, transfree products and competitive prices.

54 CONCLUSIONS In terms of Myanmar, foreign exchange can be saved by using palm oil as it is cheaper than other edible oils At current price, palm oil is USD250/MT cheaper than soybean oil Consumers get strategic solutions from palm oil: food security, transfree products and competitive prices.

55 Palm oil is:- CONCLUSIONS

56 THANK YOU Visit my blog: