REFERENCE CODE GDHCER022 PUBLICAT ION DATE AUGUST 2013 OVERWEIGHT AND OBESITY - EPIDEMIOLOGY FORECAST TO 2022

Transcription

1 REFERENCE CODE GDHCER022 PUBLICAT ION DATE AUGUST 2013 OVERWEIGHT AND OBESITY -

2 Executive Summary Obesity is an escalating global public health problem that has reached pandemic proportions. It is caused by a combination of excessive caloric intake and physical inactivity, which, in turn, leads to excessive fat accumulation in the body, negatively impacting health. Obesity is the major cause of type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease, and ischemic stroke, which are increasing globally (Larson and Wolk, 2006). The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that worldwide, 2.8 million people die each year due to obesity and its associated comorbidities (WHO, 2013a). Moreover, 35.8 million (2.3%) of global disabilityadjusted life years (DALYs) are caused by overweight/obesity (WHO, 2013d). Globally, in 2008, 35% of adults ages 20 years and older were overweight, as defined by a body mass index (BMI) of 25 kg/m 2 (includes all overweight and obese), and 11% were obese (BMI 30 kg/m 2 ) (WHO, 2013a; WHO, 2013c; WHO, 2013d). During , the obesity prevalence almost doubled globally. In 1980, only 5% of men and 8% of women over the age of 20 years were obese, and in 2008, these proportions almost doubled to 10% for men and 14% for women, resulting in an estimated 205 million and 297 million prevalent cases of obesity in men and women, respectively (WHO, 2013d). This report provides an overview of the risk factors, comorbidities, and the global trends for overweight and obesity in the nine major markets (9MM) (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, Brazil, and Canada). The report also includes a 10-year epidemiology forecast of the prevalent cases of overweight, obesity, obesity class I, obesity class II, and obesity class III segmented by sex and age. In addition, the report includes a 10-year forecast of the prevalent cases of obesity-associated comorbidities, such as diagnosed diabetes, diagnosed hypertension, and dyslipidemia, among adults with overweight/obesity in some of these markets. To forecast the prevalent cases of overweight, obesity, obesity class I, obesity class II, and obesity class III segmented by sex and age in these major markets, GlobalData epidemiologists used longitudinal historical data obtained from country-specific, national-level studies using the uniform diagnostic criteria specified by the WHO for overweight (BMI = kg/m 2 ), obesity (BMI = kg/m 2 ), obesity class I (BMI = kg/m 2 ), obesity class II (BMI = kg/m 2 ), and obesity class III (BMI = kg/m 2 ), and applied regression methods to forecast the prevalent cases (WHO, 2013c). GlobalData epidemiologists used country-specific national or regional studies that mirror the national population to develop a forecast for the hypertension, dyslipidemia, and type 2 diabetes comorbidities in selected markets. 2

3 Executive Summary As shown in the below figures, GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the number of prevalent cases of overweight in the 9MM will grow by 8.70% during the forecast period, from million cases in 2012 to million cases by Compared with overweight, GlobalData epidemiologists forecast a substantial growth in the projected number of prevalent cases of obesity in the 9MM, with a 27.5% increase during the forecast period, from million cases in 2012 to million cases in Throughout the forecast period, the US will have the most prevalent cases of overweight and obesity, with million cases of overweight and million cases of obesity by 2022, followed by Brazil, with million cases of overweight and million cases of obesity. 9MM, Prevalent Cases of Overweight, Ages 18 Years, Both Sexes, N (Millions), 2012 and MM 7MM 5EU US Brazil Japan Germany UK Italy France Spain Canada Prevalent Cases of Overweight (N=Millions) Source: GlobalData; CCHS, 2004; Charles et al., 2008; CHMS, 2010; CHMS, 2012; Flegal et al., 2010; Flegal et al., 2012; Gallus et al., 2006; Gallus et al., 2013; Gigante et al., 2011; Hauner et al., 2008; HSE, 2011; INE, 2013a; INE, 2013b; INE, 2013c; Monteiro et al., 2007; Ogden et al., 2006; Tanaka and Kokubo, 2005; WHO, 2011; WHO, 2013b; Yoshiike et al., Note: 5EU = France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and UK; 7MM = US, 5EU, and Japan; 9MM = 7MM, Brazil, and Canada 9MM, Prevalent Cases of Obesity, Ages 18 Years, Both Sexes, N (Millions), 2012 and MM 7MM US 5EU Brazil Germany UK France Canada Spain Italy Japan Prevalent Cases of Obesity (N=Millions) Source: GlobalData; CCHS, 2004; Charles et al., 2008; CHMS, 2010; CHMS, 2012; Flegal et al., 2010; Flegal et al., 2012; Gallus et al., 2006; Gallus et al., 2013; Gigante et al., 2011; Hauner et al., 2008; HSE, 2011; INE, 2013a; INE, 2013b; INE, 2013c; Monteiro et al., 2007; Tanaka and Kokubo, 2005; WHO, 2011; WHO, 2013b; Yoshiike et al., Note: 5EU = France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and UK; 7MM = US, 5EU, and Japan; 9MM = 7MM, Brazil, and Canada The major drivers of the substantial increase in the projected prevalence and prevalent cases of overweight and obesity in the 9MM is both an increased adoption of a westernized lifestyle and an increase in the prevalence of obesity risk factors. As modern lifestyles typically include risk factors such as a sedentary lifestyle and physical inactivity combined with high caloric intake, it will be difficult for public health organizations and policymakers to aim for effective control measures at a population level to curtail this fast-growing epidemic. As a result, GlobalData epidemiologists predict that the obesity epidemic and its associated comorbidities will continue to increase, making them a significant threat to public health. 3

4 List of Tables List of Figures Introduction Catalyst Related Reports Upcoming Reports Epidemiology Disease Overview Risk Factors and Comorbidities Family history is a strong predictor of obesity Physical inactivity is an independent predictor of obesity Excessive caloric intake doubles the risk for obesity Hypertension is as high as 42% in obese adults Dyslipidemia and type 2 diabetes are common comorbidities in obese patients Global Trends US EU Japan Brazil Canada Forecast Methodology

5 3.4.1 Sources Used Forecast Assumptions and Methods: Prevalent Cases of Overweight, Obesity, Obesity by Class, and Comorbidities Sources Not Used Epidemiology Forecast of Overweight ( ) Prevalent Cases of Overweight Age-Specific Prevalent Cases of Overweight Sex-Specific Prevalent Cases of Overweight Age-Standardized Prevalence of Overweight Epidemiology Forecast of Obesity ( ) Prevalent Cases of Obesity Age-Specific Prevalent Cases of Obesity Sex-Specific Prevalent Cases of Obesity Age-Standardized Prevalence of Obesity Epidemiology Forecast of Obesity Class I ( ) Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class I Age-Specific Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class I Sex-Specific Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class I Age-Standardized Prevalence of Obesity Class I Epidemiology Forecast of Obesity Class II ( ) Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class II Age-Specific Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class II Sex-Specific Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class II

6 3.8.4 Age-Standardized Prevalence of Obesity Class II Epidemiology Forecast of Obesity Class III ( ) Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class III Age-Specific Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class III Sex-Specific Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class III Age-Standardized Prevalence of Obesity Class III Epidemiology Forecast of Comorbidities among Adults with Overweight/Obesity (2012 and 2022) Prevalent Cases of Diagnosed Diabetes among Adults with Overweight/Obesity Prevalent Cases of Diagnosed Hypertension in Adults with Overweight/Obesity Prevalent Cases of Dyslipidemia among Adults with Overweight/Obesity Discussion Conclusions on Epidemiological Trends Limitations of the Analysis Strengths of the Analysis Appendix Bibliography About the Authors Epidemiologists Reviewers Global Director of Epidemiology and Health Policy Global Head of Healthcare About GlobalData

7 4.4 About EpiCast Disclaimer

8 1.1 List of Tables Table 1: The WHO Classification System of Adult Overweight and Obesity According to BMI Table 2: Risk Factors and Comorbidities of Obesity Table 3: 9MM, Age-Adjusted and Crude Prevalence (%) of Obesity, by Sex, Ages 20 Years, Table 4: JASSO and WHO Classifications of Obesity Table 5: Sources of Epidemiological Data Used for Forecasting the Prevalent Cases of Overweight Table 6: Sources of Epidemiological Data Used for Forecasting the Prevalent Cases of Obesity Table 7: Sources of Epidemiological Data Used for Forecasting the Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class I, Class II, and Class III Table 8: Sources of Epidemiological Data Used for Forecasting the Prevalent Cases of Comorbidities in Overweight/Obese Table 9: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of Overweight, Ages 18 Years, Both Sexes, N (Millions), Table 10: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of Overweight, By Age, Both Sexes, N (Millions), Row (%), Table 11: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of Overweight, Ages 18 Years, By Sex, N (Millions), Row (%), Table 12: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of Obesity, Ages 18 Years, Both Sexes, N (Millions), Table 13: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of Obesity, By Age, Both Sexes, N (Millions), Row (%), Table 14: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of Obesity, Ages 18 Years, by Sex, N (Millions), Row (%), Table 15: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class I, Ages 18 Years, Both Sexes, N (Millions), Table 16: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class I, by Age, Both Sexes, N (Millions), Row (%), Table 17: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class I, Ages 18 Years, By Sex, N (Millions), Row (%), Table 18: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class II, Ages 18 Years, Both Sexes, N (Millions), Table 19: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class II, By Age, Both Sexes, N (Millions), Row (%), Table 20: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class II, Ages 18 Years, By Sex, N (Millions), Row (%),

9 Table 21: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class III, Ages 18 Years, Both Sexes, N (Millions), Table 22: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class III, By Age, Both Sexes, N (Millions), Row (%), Table 23: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class III, Ages 18 Years, By Sex, N (Millions), Row (%), Table 24: 5MM*, Prevalent Cases of Diagnosed Diabetes among Adults with Overweight/Obesity, Both Sexes, N (Millions), 2012 and Table 25: 6MM*, Prevalent Cases of Diagnosed Hypertension among Adults with Overweight/Obesity, Both Sexes, N (Millions), 2012 and Table 26: 4MM, Prevalent Cases of Dyslipidemia* among Adults with Overweight/Obesity, Both Sexes, N (Millions), 2012 and

10 1.2 List of Figures Figure 1: US, Overweight and Obesity Age-Adjusted Prevalence (%), Ages Years, Men, Figure 2: US, Overweight and Obesity Age-Adjusted Prevalence (%), Ages Years, Women, Figure 3: France, Overweight and Obesity Prevalence (%), Ages 15 Years, Men, Figure 4: France, Overweight and Obesity Prevalence (%), Ages 15 Years, Women, Figure 5: Italy, Overweight and Obesity Prevalence (%), Ages 18, Men, Figure 6: Italy, Overweight and Obesity Prevalence (%), Ages 18, Men, Figure 7: UK, Overweight and Obesity Prevalence (%), Ages 16 Years, Men, Figure 8: UK, Overweight and Obesity Prevalence (%), Ages 16 Years, Women, Figure 9: Japan, Obesity Prevalence (%), Ages 20 Years, By Sex, Figure 10: Brazil, Overweight and Obesity Prevalence (%), Ages 20 Years, Men, Figure 11: Brazil, Overweight and Obesity Prevalence (%), Ages 20 Years, Women, Figure 12: Canada, Obesity Prevalence (%), Ages 18 Years, Both Sexes, Figure 13: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of Overweight, Ages 18 Years, Both Sexes, N (Millions), Figure 14: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of Overweight, by Age, Both Sexes, N (Millions), Figure 15: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of Overweight, Ages 18 Years, by Sex, N (Millions), Figure 16: 9MM, Overweight Age-Standardized Prevalence (%), Ages 18 Years, By Sex, Figure 17: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of Obesity, Ages 18 Years, Both Sexes, N (Millions), Figure 18: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of Obesity, By Age, Both Sexes, N (Millions), Figure 19: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of Obesity, Ages 18 Years, by Sex, N (Millions), Figure 20: 9MM, Obesity Age-Standardized Prevalence (%), Ages 18 Years, By Sex, Figure 21: 9MM*, Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class I, Ages 18 Years, Both Sexes, N (Millions),

11 Figure 22: 9MM*, Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class I, By Age, Both Sexes, N (Millions), Figure 23: 9MM*, Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class I, Ages 18 Years, by Sex, N (Millions), Figure 24: 9MM*, Obesity Class I Age-Standardized Prevalence (%), Ages 18 Years, by Sex, Figure 25: 9MM*, Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class II, Ages 18 Years, Both Sexes, N (Millions), Figure 26: 9MM*, Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class II, By Age, Both Sexes, N (Millions), Figure 27: 9MM*, Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class II, Ages 18 Years, by Sex, N (Millions), Figure 28: 9MM*, Age-Standardized Prevalence (%) of Obesity Class II, Ages 18 Years, By Sex, Figure 29: 9MM*, Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class III, Ages 18 Years, Both Sexes, N (Millions), Figure 30: 9MM*, Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class III, By Age, Both Sexes, N (Millions), Figure 31: 9MM*, Prevalent Cases of Obesity Class III, Ages 18 Years, By Sex, N (Millions), Figure 32: 9MM*, Obesity Class III Age-Standardized Prevalence (%), Ages 18 Years, By Sex, Figure 33: 5MM*, Prevalent Cases of Diagnosed Diabetes among Adults with Overweight/Obesity, Both Sexes, N (Millions), Figure 34: 6MM*, Prevalent Cases of Diagnosed Hypertension among Adults with Overweight/Obesity, Both Sexes, N (Millions), Figure 35: 4MM*, Prevalent Cases of Dyslipidemia** among Adults with Overweight/Obesity, Both Sexes, N (Millions),

12 Introduction 2 Introduction 2.1 Catalyst Overweight and obesity are diseases characterized by abnormal or excessive fat accumulation in the body, which can increase the likelihood of developing type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular diseases (Larson and Wolk, 2006; WHO, 2013a). The World Health Organization (WHO) classifies overweight and obesity by body mass index (BMI). A BMI of 25 kg/m 2 is considered overweight, and a BMI of 30 kg/m 2 is considered to be obese (WHO, 2013c). Obesity is an escalating public health problem with an increasing prevalence worldwide, and it has become a well-known threat to public health (WHO, 2013d). To provide a thorough description of the overweight and obese (all obese, class I obesity, class II obesity, class III obesity) patient population in each country, GlobalData epidemiologists segmented the overweight and obesity prevalent cases by sex, age (in five-year increments, beginning at age 18 years and ending at 85 years) in the nine major markets (9MM) (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, Brazil, and Canada). GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that there were million prevalent cases of overweight adults in the 9MM in 2012, which will increase to million cases in 2022, increasing at an Annual Growth Rate (AGR) of 0.86%. GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that there were million prevalent cases of obesity in the 9MM in 2012, which will increase to million cases in 2022, increasing at an AGR of 2.75%. While the trend in the prevalent cases of overweight remains almost stable for most of the 9MM during the forecast period, a substantial growth in the prevalent cases of obesity is seen in most of the markets. Approximately 57% of the million prevalent cases of overweight adults in the 9MM in 2012 were in men. Approximately 52% of the million prevalent cases of obese adults in the 9MM in 2012 were in women. 12

13 Appendix 4.3 About GlobalData GlobalData is a leading global provider of business intelligence in the Healthcare industry. GlobalData provides its clients with up-to-date information and analysis on the latest developments in drug research, disease analysis, and clinical research and development. Our integrated business intelligence solutions include a range of interactive online databases, analytical tools, reports and forecasts. Our analysis is supported by a 24/7 client support and analyst team. GlobalData has offices in New York, Boston, London, India and Singapore. 4.4 About EpiCast EpiCast is a series of premier epidemiology reports written and developed by Masters and PhD level epidemiologists. EpiCast Reports are in-depth, high quality, transparent and market-driven, providing expert analysis of epidemiological trends and forecasting of patient populations for major markets. Specifically, the reports identify disease trends over a 10-year forecast period in six to seven major markets (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan). Additional countries, such as Canada, Brazil, India and China, are covered in these reports if their markets are highly relevant. 123

14 Appendix 4.5 Disclaimer All Rights Reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher, GlobalData. 124