Health impact assessment of particulate matter exposure in Pearl River Delta (PRD), China

Transcription

1 Health impact assessment of particulate matter exposure in Pearl River Delta (PRD), China Peng Xie,Zhao-rong Liu College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University

2 Outline Human health effects of PM pollution PM pollution level in PRD in 26 Risk assessment methods Results and discussion Conclusions

3 Science. 37: , News Focus, 25

4 Pope and Dockery, J. Air & Waste Manage. Assoc. 56: , 26

5 PM 1 PM % Confidence Intervals TM- total mortality RM- respiratory mortality CM-cardiovascular mortality RHA-respiratory hospital admissions CHA- cardiovascular hospital admissions RO- respiratory outpatients CO- cardiovascular outpatients CA- children asthma CB-children bronchitis

6

7

8 Guangzhou PM1 Shenzhen PM1 Concentration (µg/m 3 ) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Concentration (µg/m 3 ) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Zhuhai PM1 Foshan PM1 Concentration (µg/m 3 ) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Concentration (µg/m 3 ) Sep Oct Nov Dec Jiangmen PM1 Dongguan PM1 Concentration (µg/m 3 ) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Concentration (µg/m 3 ) Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

9 Zhaoqing PM1 Concentration (µg/m 3 ) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Huizhou PM1 2 Zhongshan PM Concentration (µg/m 3 ) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Concentration (µg/m 3 ) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2 Hongkong PM Concentration (µg/m 3 ) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec WHO 24-hour average Guideline 5µg/m 3

10 Concentration (µg/m 3 ) Guangzhou PM Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Concentration (µg/m 3 ) Hongkong PM Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec WHO 24-hour average Guideline 25µg/m 3

11 Annual Concentration (µg/m 3 ) WHO PM1 annual average Guideline 2 µg/m 3 WHO PM2.5 annual average Guideline 1µg/m 3 PM1 PM2.5 GZ SZ ZH FS JM ZQ HZ ZS DG HK GZ-Guangzhou SZ-Shenzhen ZH-Zhuhai FS-Foshan JM-Jiangmen ZQ-Zhaoqing HZ-Huizhou ZS-Zhongshan DG-Dongguan HK-Hongkong Except for Guanzhou and Hongkong, the concentrations of PM2.5 were converted from PM1. The conversion factor.7 was used.

12 Risk assessment method Short-term effects Poisson model number of attributable deaths Long-term effects Poisson model number of attributable deaths Life-table gain in life expectancy

13 short-term effects 365 E = ( p β ( C ι C ) Ε ) i = = ( p β C Ε ) i = 1 β - exposure-response coefficient C i - ambient PM daily concentrations C - reference PM 24-hour concentrations (here WHO Guideline values were used) ΔC- difference between C i and C (ΔC= if C i below C ) p- amount of population E and E - the health effects at C i and C ΔE - the health damage caused by increased pollution

14 Long-term effects E + β C C Ε Ε = p ((1 ( )) ) p β C Ε = β - exposure-response coefficient C - ambient PM annual concentrations C - reference PM annual concentrations (here WHO guideline values were used) ΔC- difference between C and C p- amount of population E and E - the health effects at C i and C ΔE - the health damage caused by increased pollution

15 Long-term exposure Life expectancy of residents in PRD in 26 Age group GZ SZ ZH FS JM ZQ HZ ZS DG HK

16 Short-term effects PM 1 PM % Confidence Intervals GZ-Guangzhou SZ-Shenzhen ZH-Zhuhai FS-Foshan JM-Jiangmen ZQ-Zhaoqing HZ-Huizhou ZS-Zhongshan DG-Dongguan HK-Hongkong 27 (95%CI, 22-34) premature deaths would be prevented annually for PM 1

17 Long-term effects PM 1 PM % Confidence Intervals GZ-Guangzhou SZ-Shenzhen ZH-Zhuhai FS-Foshan JM-Jiangmen ZQ-Zhaoqing HZ-Huizhou ZS-Zhongshan DG-Dongguan HK-Hongkong 43 premature deaths would be prevented annually for PM 1 and 4 premature deaths for PM 2.5

18 Long-term effects Life extending /year GZ SZ PM 1 ZH FS JM ZQ HZ ZS DG HK PM Age groups Life extending /year GZ-Guangzhou SZ-Shenzhen ZH-Zhuhai FS-Foshan JM-Jiangmen ZQ-Zhaoqing HZ-Huizhou ZS-Zhongshan DG-Dongguan HK-Hongkong GZ SZ ZH FS JM ZQ HZ ZS DG HK Age groups

19 Long-term effects GZ-Guangzhou SZ-Shenzhen ZH-Zhuhai FS-Foshan JM-Jiangmen ZQ-Zhaoqing HZ-Huizhou ZS-Zhongshan DG-Dongguan HK-Hongkong

20 Long-term effects GZ-Guangzhou SZ-Shenzhen ZH-Zhuhai FS-Foshan JM-Jiangmen ZQ-Zhaoqing HZ-Huizhou ZS-Zhongshan DG-Dongguan HK-Hongkong Average lifetime of residents in PRD would prolong 2.57 years for PM 1 and 2.38 years for PM 2.5 from PM reductions

21 Discussion PM exposure level Exposure-response functions Co-pollutants

22 PM exposure Annual concentrations of PM1 ( µg/m 3 ) Guangdong Guangzhou Hong Kong Shenzhen Zhongshan Foshan Jiangmen year A relative stable PM pollution level in PRD especially from 24

23 Exposure-response Functions Percent increase in mortality per 1µg/m 3 increase of PM concentrations Exposure-response coefficients Pollutans Subjects mean (β) 95% confidence interval Short-term PM 2.5 all population.42 (.3,.81) exposure PM 1 all population.33 (.24,.43) Long-term PM 2.5 3years 7.6 (3.6, 11.6) exposure PM 1 3years 5.4 (2.8, 7.8)

24 Exposure-response functions Percent increase in mortality per 1µg/m 3 increase of PM PM1 2. China Europe USA Canada 1.6 China- our study result Europe- Peters et al. 22 Neuberger et al.,27 USA- Zanobetti et al. 29 Canada- Burnett et al. 2 Percent increase in mortality per 1µg/m 3 increase of PM China- our study result Europe- Anderson et al. 24 USA- Daniels et al. 2 Canada- Burnett et al. 2 PM2.5 China Europe USA Canada

25 Co-pollutants A nnual average daily concentration /µ g/m NO2 SO2 O3 PM1 GZ SZ ZH FS JM ZQ HZ ZS DG HK GZ-Guangzhou SZ-Shenzhen ZH-Zhuhai FS-Foshan JM-Jiangmen ZQ-Zhaoqing HZ-Huizhou ZS-Zhongshan DG-Dongguan HK-Hongkong NO 2 : µg/m 3 ; SO 2 : 2-11 µg/m 3 O 3 : 3-6 µg/m 3

26 Areas Pollutants SO 2 NO 2 O 3 PM 1.739(**).84(**).418(**) Guangzhou SO (**).233(**) NO (**) PM 1.551(**).498(**).57(**) Shenzhen SO (**).265(**) NO (**) PM 1.483(**).49(**).196(**) Zhuhai SO (**) -.7 (**) NO (**) PM 1.881(**).795(**).142(**) Foshan SO 2 1.8(**) -.44 NO (**) PM 1.739(**).43(**).244(**) Jiangmen SO (**) -.62(**) NO (*) PM 1.635(**).775(**).319(**) Zhaoqing SO (**).219(**) NO (*) PM 1.85(**).713(**).321(**) Zhongshan SO (**).44(**) NO (*) PM 1.413(**).593(**).659(**) Hong Kong SO (**).248(**) NO (**) ** Correlation is significant at the.1 level (2-tailed)

27 Conclusions 1. Annual mean concentrations of PM 1 and PM 2.5 were found to reach 72µg/m 3 and 51µg/m 3 respectively in PRD, in 26. Foshan, Huizhou And Dongguan had more severe PM pollution. Zhongshan and Zhuhai had a little slighter PM pollution. 2. In term of avoidable deaths, 27(95% CI, 22-34) premature deaths for PM 1 could be prevented annually if the PM 24-hour concentrations were reduced to below WHO 24-hour guideline value. Much larger benefits would be gained for long-term exposure. For PM 1, 42(95% CI, 28-55) premature deaths would be prevented annually and the number of deaths avoidable became 4(95% CI, 23-54), for PM The expected gain in person-years of adults would be 68 and the average lifetime would prolong 2.57 years for PM 1. And for PM 2.5, the expected gain in person-years would turn to 63 and the average lifetime would prolong 2.38 years if the annual concentrations in PRD reduced to below WHO guideline values. 4. The potential benefits of reducing PM levels varied in different prefectures. Different manage strategies should be carried out in different types of prefectures in PRD to improve the air quality.

28 Thank you for your attentions!