World Outlook for Castor Oil 2018

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1 World Outlook for Castor Oil 218 Siegfried Falk Co-editor of OIL WORLD ISTA Mielke GmbH Hamburg, Germany Global Castor Conference 218 Ahmedabad, 24 Feb 218

2 Biggest price increase in castor oil so far this season! - Overdue correction? - Supply shortage? - Incentive for farmers? Price Changes of Oils Oct/Jan 217/18 vs. year ago in % castor olive fish rape soya sunfl palm CNO PKO

3 Castor Oil & Soya Oil Prices in Rotterdam Monthly average prices in US-$/T Castor oil y avg Soya oil Prices from Oct 1994 until 31 January Castor Oil & Soya Oil Prices in Rotterdam Monthly premiums in US-$/T Prices from Oct 1994 until 15 February 218

4 Weekly Prices of Castor Oil (US-$/T) ex-tank Rotterdam and fob Kandla Castor oil, ex-tank Rotterdam Castor oil, fob Kandla Price rally in Mar/Apr 217 on lower crop Weaker prices since with quite large exports but dowtrend may be treacherous 8 Sep15 Ja16 May16 Sep16 Ja17 May17 Sep17 Jan18 From 3 Sept 215 until 15 Feb 218

5 CASTOR OIL: World Imports & Usage Thd T Consumption Imports 87/88 9/91 93/94 96/97 99/ 2/3 5/6 8/9 11/12 14/15 17/18 O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r 1 years to 16/17: Consumption +31% Imports +93%

6 CASTOR OIL : World Exports ( 1 T ) China Other Oct/Sept India Brazil P.R. ctrs. Total 1985/86-89/ /91-94/ /96-99/ /1-4/ /6-9/ / / / / / /18F * 1*.* 39* 57*

7 CASTOR OIL: Usage in Key Countries Thd T China EU-28 India This season China accounts for about 4% of world usage, vs. 3% ten years ago 5 9/91 93/94 96/97 99/ 2/3 5/6 8/9 11/12 14/15 17/18 O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r U.S.A. Brazil

8 CHINA : Castor Oil Output & Consumption T Consumption Production 94/95 96/97 98/99 /1 2/3 4/5 6/7 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/ 1/2 3/4 5/6 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r Imports 99 Thd T Imports Thd T

9 Oilseed Prices in India Monthly averages 1 Rs. per MT Groundnuts Rapeseed Castorseed Soybeans Jan15 May15 Sept15 Jan16 May16 Sept16 Jan17 May17 Sep17 Jan18 Source: Solvent Extractors' Association of India. Castorseed: From least to most expensive of 4 major oilseeds - Effects of higher vegoil import duties?

10 INDIA: Castorseed Supplies (Thd T) 24 crop stocks Jan F Depleted stocks are curbing 218 supplies to 7-year low with crop of Mn T

11 INDIA: Castorseed Supplies (Thd T) crop stocks Jan F F - Crush to decline in Further reduction of stocks? - Large crop required next year INDIA Castorseed Balance, 1 T Op stocks Crop Crush Oth. use End stocks

12

13 INDIA: Castor Crop vs Demand (Thd T) Crop World demand for India?? 5/6 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 4/5 6/7 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 Which crop size is needed to satisfy demand? What price signals will it take?

14 Weekly Prices of Castor Oil (US-$/T) ex-tank Rotterdam and fob Kandla Castor oil, ex-tank Rotterdam Castor oil, fob Kandla Sep15 Ja16 May16 Sep16 Ja17 May17 Sep17 Jan18 From 3 Sept 215 until 15 Feb 218

15 Another production surplus keeping vegoil prices under pressure in 217/ Veg. OILS: Production & Demand Change From Year Ago in Mn T Production Consumption 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r OILS: Surplus/Deficit of Output vs. Usage Mn T Surplus Deficit 4/5 5/6 6/7 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18

16 12 CBOT: Daily Indices of Soybean Complex 2 January 218 = 1 S oya M ea l M a rch Soybeans March 218 Effects from drought in Argentina 95 S oya O il M ar ch MALAYSIA: Crude Palm Oil Futures Close Third position in Malaysian Ringgit/T 22 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ja18 Feb Prices from 1 Nov 216 until 2 Feb Jan2 Jan16 Feb2 Feb13 Daily indices fro m 2 Jan 21 8 until 15 Feb 218 Vegoils gain competitiveness in energy Brent (ICE): D aily Futures of Crude M ineral Oil First position in US-$ per barrel Ja16 Mar May Jly Sep Nov Ja17 Mar May Jun Jly SepOct Dec J a18 D aily futures from Jan uary 2 16 u ntil 2 F eb 2 18

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19 INDIA: Castor Crop vs. Usage (1 T) Indian crop, oil equ. Indian exports + usage 5/6 8/9 11/12 14/15 17/18 O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r Crop is insufficient to satisfy demand Limited scope to bridge the gap by reducing stocks

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