Food Production and Violent Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa. - Supplementary Information -

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1 Food Production and Violent Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa - Supplementary Information - Halvard Buhaug a,b,1, Tor A. Benaminsen c,a, Espen Sjaastad c & Ole Magnus Theisen b,a a Peace Research Institute Oslo, PRIO b Norwegian University of Science and Technology, NTNU c Norwegian University of Life Sciences, NMBU This document provides descriptive statistics of key indicators and details on a selection of sensitivity tests and alternative model specifications that complement the results reported in the main article. Replication material and documentation of additional tests are available at PRIO s replication data web page. 1 Contact: halvard@prio.org 1

2 Table of Contents A. Data and measurements... 3 Variable definitions... 3 Table A1. Descriptive statistics... 5 B. CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND FOOD PRODUCTION... 6 Table B1. Climate variability and food production, Table B2. Climate variability and food production growth, Table B3. Rainfall and food production by country: West Africa/Western Sahel, Table B4. Rainfall and food production by country: West/Central Africa, Table B5. Rainfall and food production by country: East/Central Africa, Table B6. Rainfall and food production by country: Southern Africa, C. FOOD AND CONFLICT: REDUCED-FORM MODELS... 9 Table C1. Food production... 9 Table C2. Food production growth... 9 Table C3. Food production, climate-sensitive subsample Table C4. Food production growth, climate-sensitive subsample Table C5. Food production and civil conflict onset, alternative specifications Table C6. Food production and social unrest, alternative OLS specifications Table C7. Food production and social unrest, alternative negative binomial specifications Table C8. Food production and food-related unrest, alternative OLS specifications Table C9. Food production and food-related unrest, alternative negative binomial specifications Table C10. Food production and non-state conflicts, alternative specifications Table C11. Food production and coup attempts, alternative specifications D. CLIMATE AND CONFLICT: REDUCED-FORM MODELS Table D1. Rainfall, temperature, and political violence E. FOOD AND CONFLICT: INSTRUMENTAL VARIABLE ANALYSIS Table E1. Food production instrumented by weather patterns Table E2. Food production growth instrumented by weather patterns Table E3. Food production instrumented by weather patterns, climate sensitive subsample Table E4. Food production growth instrumented by weather patterns, climate sensitive subsample Table E5. Crops production instrumented by weather patterns Table E6. Crops production instrumented by weather patterns, climate sensitive subsample Table E7. Cereals production instrumented by weather patterns Table E8. Cereals production instrumented by weather patterns, climate sensitive subsample F. INTERACTIVE RELATIONSHIPS Table F1. Food production deviation and GDP per capita Figure F1. Marginal effect of food production deviation by level of development Table F2. Food production deviation and agricultural population Figure F2. Marginal effect of food production deviation by share of agricultural population Table F3. Food production deviation and regime type (SIP2) Figure F3. Marginal effect of food production deviation by level of democracy G. ALTERNATIVE ESTIMATORS FOR SCAD EVENTS Figure G1. The distribution of SCAD events Table G1. Negative and zero-inflated negative binomial models H. PROPOSED CASES SUPPORTING A CLIMATE-CONFLICT LINK

3 A. Data and measurements Variable definitions Civil conflict onset coded 1 in first year of a new conflict, and in first year of an old conflict after at least two calendar years of inactivity. A civil conflict is defined as military fighting between a state and one or more non-state actor(s) over territory or government resulting in at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar year. Source: UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset, v Social unrest events number of protests, riots, demonstrations, strikes, and other social disturbances in year. Variable is log-transformed before use in OLS models. Source: Social Conflict in Africa Database, v.2.0. Food-related social unrest number of protests, riots, demonstrations, strikes, and other social disturbances in year that relate specifically to food, water, and/or subsistence resources. Variable is logtransformed before use in OLS models. Source: Social Conflict in Africa Database, v.2.0. coded 1 if ongoing fighting between organized non-state actors in year resulting in at least 25 battle-related deaths. Source: UCDP Non-State Conflict dataset, v.2.3. Coup attempt coded 1 if one or more attempted coups d'état in year. Both failed and successful attempts at overthrowing the regime are included. Source: Global Instances of Coup Dataset, v Food production value of annual food production in year, expressed in Geary-Khamis dollars per capita. This indicator constitutes a better proxy for the economic shock imposed on food producers than simpler statistics of volumes of production as it accounts for fluctuations in the market value of the food commodity. Source: FAOSTAT Food production Δ growth in food production since the previous year, expressed in percent. Source: FAOSTAT Food production deviation deviation between food production in year and mean annual food production in the sample period, , expressed in percent. Source: FAOSTAT Crops production value of annual crops production in country year, expressed in Geary-Khamis dollars per capita. Source: FAOSTAT Crops production Δ growth in crops production since the previous year, expressed in percent. Source: FAOSTAT Crops production deviation deviation between crops production in year and mean annual crops production in the sample period, , expressed in percent. Source: FAOSTAT Cereals production value of annual cereals production in country year, expressed in Geary-Khamis dollars per capita. Source: FAOSTAT Cereals production Δ growth in cereals production since the previous year, expressed in percent. Source: FAOSTAT Cereals production deviation deviation between cereals production in year and mean annual cereals production in the sample period, , expressed in percent. Source: FAOSTAT Precipitation annual total precipitation in country, expressed in mm. Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and University of Delaware; aggregated to the country level through PRIO-GRID. 3

4 Temperature annual mean temperature in country, expressed in C. Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and University of Delaware; aggregated to the country level through PRIO-GRID. Infant mortality rate (IMR) number of deaths of under-one-year-old infants per 1,000 live births in year. Source: World Development Indicators Discrimination extent of ethno-political discrimination in year, expressed as the demographic size of the largest politically discriminated ethnic group relative to the group(s) in power. Source: Ethnic Power Relations dataset, v.1.1. Exclusion extent of ethno-political exclusion in year, expressed as the demographic size of the largest politically excluded ethnic group relative to the group(s) in power. Source: Ethnic Power Relations dataset, v.1.1. Population size of the country population in year, expressed in (ln) 1,000s. Source: Gleditsch & Ward Interstate System Membership dataset, v.1.0. GDP per capita real Gross Domestic Product per capita in year, expressed in (ln) constant 1996 US dollars. Source: Gleditsch Expanded Trade and GDP data, v.4.0. SIP2 institutional consistency, expressed on a continuous scale from 0 (perfect autocracy) to 1 (perfect democracy. Source: Scalar Index of Polities, Agricultural dependence agriculture value added as share of GDP in year, expressed in percent. Source: World Development Indicators Agricultural population agriculture population as share of total population in year, expressed in percent. Source: World Development Indicators Time count of calendar years since start of time period; 1961=1. List of countries full Sub-Saharan Africa sample (42 countries) Angola ( ), Benin ( ), Botswana ( ), Burkina Faso ( ), Burundi ( ), Cameroon ( ), Central African Republic ( ), Chad ( ), Congo ( ), Côte d'ivoire ( ), Democratic Republic of the Congo ( ), Djibouti ( ), Eritrea ( ), Ethiopia ( ), Gabon ( ), Gambia ( ), Ghana ( ), Guinea ( ), Guinea-Bissau ( ), Kenya ( ), Lesotho ( ), Liberia ( ), Madagascar ( ), Malawi ( ), Mali ( ), Mauritania ( ), Mozambique ( ), Namibia ( ), Niger ( ), Nigeria ( ), Rwanda ( ), Senegal ( ), Sierra Leone ( ), Somalia ( ), South Africa ( ), Sudan ( ), Swaziland ( ), Togo ( ), Uganda ( ), United Republic of Tanzania ( ), Zambia ( ), Zimbabwe ( ). Due to specified time lag on some variables, the regression models typically only cover years from 1962 onwards. List of countries climate-sensitive subsample (13 countries) Benin ( ), Burkina Faso ( ), Chad ( ), Guinea ( ), Kenya ( ), Mali ( ), Mauritania ( ), Niger ( ), Senegal ( ), Somalia ( ), Sudan ( ), Togo ( ), Zimbabwe ( ). 4

5 Table A1. Descriptive statistics Variable N Mean Std.dev Min Max Civil conflict onset 2, Social unrest events Food-related social unrest , Coup attempt 2, Food production p.c. 1, Food production growth (Δ) 1, Food production deviation 1,904 > Crops production p.c. 1, Crops production growth (Δ) 1, Crops production deviation 1,904 > Cereals production p.c. 1, Cereals production growth (Δ) 1, Cereals production deviation 1,904 < Precipitation 2, Temperature 2, Infant mortality rate (IMR) 2, Discrimination 1, Exclusion 1, >0.999 Population (ln) 1, GDP p.c. (ln) 1, SIP2 2, Agricultural dependence 1, Agricultural population 1, Time 2,

6 B. CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND FOOD PRODUCTION Table B1. Climate variability and food production, (B1) (B2) (B3) (B4) (B5) (B6) VARIABLES Food Cereals Crops Food Cereals Crops Rainfall 0.041** 0.020** 0.043** 0.012** 0.006** 0.014** (0.013) (0.006) (0.013) (0.004) (0.002) (0.005) Rainfall squared ** ** ** (0.004) (0.002) (0.004) Temperature * * (0.006) (0.004) (0.006) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) Temperature squared (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) Production t ** 0.623** 0.863** 0.882** 0.642** 0.869** (0.026) (0.068) (0.034) (0.025) (0.066) (0.032) Conflict t (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) Time (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) Constant * * (0.069) (0.051) (0.070) (0.025) (0.014) (0.025) Observations 1,820 1,820 1,820 1,820 1,820 1,820 R-squared Fixed-effects OLS coefficients with robust standard errors in parentheses; ** p<0.01, * p<0.05. Models differ in the specification of dependent variable (food; cereals; crops) and inclusion vs. exclusion of squared climate terms. Table B2. Climate variability and food production growth, (B7) (B8) (B9) (B10) (B11) (B12) VARIABLES Food Δ Cereals Δ Crops Δ Food Δ Cereals Δ Crops Δ Rainfall ** ** 8.305* ** (9.490) (21.387) (12.999) (3.409) (5.818) (4.589) Rainfall squared ** ** (3.089) (6.903) (4.373) Temperature * * ** ** (3.980) (12.203) (5.777) (1.014) (3.081) (1.426) Temperature squared (0.085) (0.236) (0.128) Production t ** ** ** ** ** ** (0.031) (0.020) (0.054) (0.032) (0.020) (0.055) Time 0.081** 0.187* ** 0.208** 0.117* (0.029) (0.073) (0.045) (0.031) (0.064) (0.047) Conflict t * (0.683) (2.557) (0.980) (0.671) (2.494) (0.968) Constant ** * ** ** (49.778) ( ) (69.275) (22.788) (74.791) (31.820) Observations 1,778 1,725 1,778 1,778 1,725 1,778 R-squared Fixed-effects OLS coefficients with robust standard errors in parentheses; ** p<0.01, * p<0.05. Models differ in the specification of dependent variable (food; cereals; crops) and inclusion vs. exclusion of squared climate terms. 6

7 Table B3. Rainfall and food production by country: West Africa/Western Sahel, (B13) (B14) (B15) (B16) (B17) (B18) (B19) (B20) (B21) (B22) Country Guinea- Bissau Gambia Mali Senegal Benin Mauritania Niger Côte d Ivoire Guinea Burkina Faso Precipitation dev ** 0.022** 0.002* 0.002* 0.008** * 0.004** (0.001) (0.003) (0.001) (0.003) (0.001) (0.001) (0.002) (0.001) (0.000) (0.001) Civil conflict ** ** (0.001) (0.007) (0.005) (0.004) (0.004) (0.009) (0.002) (0.001) (0.002) Time 0.001** * 0.000** ** 0.000** * 0.000** 0.001** (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) Food prod. t ** 0.477** 0.204* 0.692** 0.916** 0.671** ** 0.305* (0.178) (0.114) (0.139) (0.101) (0.102) (0.118) (0.142) (0.145) (0.061) (0.133) Constant 0.060** 0.069* 0.056** 0.144** 0.033** ** ** (0.015) (0.027) (0.016) (0.020) (0.012) (0.021) (0.020) (0.029) (0.008) (0.009) Observations R-squared OLS coefficients with robust standard errors in parentheses; ** p<0.01, * p<0.05. Standardized precipitation deviation from country mean. Civil conflict incidence omitted from the model for Benin due to no conflict observations. Table B4. Rainfall and food production by country: West/Central Africa, (B23) (B24) (B25) (B26) (B27) (B28) (B29) (B30) (B31) (B32) Country Liberia Sierra Ghana Togo Cameroon Nigeria Gabon C.A.R. Chad Congo Leone Precipitation dev * ** (0.000) (0.001) (0.003) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.000) Civil conflict * ** (0.001) (0.002) (0.004) (0.002) (0.001) (0.004) (0.001) (0.001) (0.002) (0.001) Time * (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) Food prod. t ** 0.842** 0.882** 0.806** 0.815** 0.889** 0.855** 0.748** 0.711** 0.894** (0.070) (0.066) (0.087) (0.101) (0.067) (0.058) (0.089) (0.106) (0.086) (0.078) Constant ** * 0.035** (0.007) (0.006) (0.011) (0.013) (0.010) (0.006) (0.017) (0.013) (0.012) (0.007) Observations R-squared OLS coefficients with robust standard errors in parentheses; ** p<0.01, * p<0.05. Standardized precipitation deviation from country mean. 7

8 Table B5. Rainfall and food production by country: East/Central Africa, (B33) (B34) (B35) (B36) (B37) (B38) (B39) (B40) (B41) (B42) Country DRC Uganda Kenya Tanzania Burundi Rwanda Somalia Djibouti Ethiopia Sudan Precipitation dev * ** ** (0.001) (0.002) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.002) (0.001) (0.002) (0.001) (0.001) Civil conflict * * (0.001) (0.009) (0.002) (0.002) (0.007) (0.003) (0.011) (0.001) (0.004) Time ** ** (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) Food prod. t ** 0.833** 0.539** 0.696** 0.630** 0.514** 0.675** 0.724** 0.827** 0.537** (0.093) (0.095) (0.152) (0.107) (0.132) (0.146) (0.096) (0.174) (0.101) (0.108) Constant ** 0.034** 0.056** 0.076** 0.077** 0.030* ** (0.010) (0.025) (0.019) (0.012) (0.020) (0.023) (0.022) (0.014) (0.010) (0.016) Observations R-squared OLS coefficients with robust standard errors in parentheses; ** p<0.01, * p<0.05. Standardized precipitation deviation from country mean. Civil conflict incidence omitted from the model for Tanzania due to no conflict observations. Table B6. Rainfall and food production by country: Southern Africa, (B43) (B44) (B45) (B46) (B47) (B48) (B49) (B50) (B51) (B52) (B53) Country Angola Mozamb. Zambia Zimbabwe Malawi South A. Namibia Lesotho Botswana Swaziland Madag. Precipitation dev ** * (0.001) (0.003) (0.001) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) (0.005) (0.001) (0.002) (0.001) (0.001) Civil conflict 0.004* * ** (0.002) (0.012) (0.006) (0.004) (0.002) (0.002) Time 0.000** ** ** * ** ** ** ** ** (0.000) (0.001) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.001) (0.000) (0.001) (0.000) (0.000) Food prod. t ** 0.817** 0.556** 0.423** 0.842** 0.414** ** 0.795** 0.724** (0.045) (0.107) (0.136) (0.114) (0.111) (0.121) (0.288) (0.138) (0.128) (0.068) (0.100) Constant ** ** 0.081** ** 0.315** 0.058** 0.104** 0.061** 0.056** (0.005) (0.032) (0.011) (0.013) (0.012) (0.025) (0.082) (0.011) (0.033) (0.019) (0.020) Observations R-squared OLS coefficients with robust standard errors in parentheses; ** p<0.01, * p<0.05. Standardized precipitation deviation from country mean. Civil conflict incidence omitted from the models for Zambia, Malawi, Namibia, Botswana, and Swaziland due to no conflict observations. 8

9 C. FOOD AND CONFLICT: REDUCED-FORM MODELS Table C1. Food production Civil conflict onset Social unrest events Coup attempt (C1) (C2) (C3) (C4) (C5) (C6) (C7) (C8) Food prod (0.244) (1.674) (0.459) (0.322) Food prod. t (0.282) (1.578) (0.424) (0.344) Time * * (0.001) (0.001) (0.006) (0.006) (0.002) (0.002) (0.001) (0.001) Conflict t ** ** 0.328** 0.328** 0.215** 0.217** (0.021) (0.020) (0.047) (0.047) (0.056) (0.057) (0.041) (0.042) Constant * 0.869** 0.357** 0.320** 0.170** 0.168** (0.039) (0.044) (0.300) (0.290) (0.092) (0.091) (0.051) (0.055) Observations 1,878 1, ,885 1,862 R-squared Fixed-effects OLS coefficients with robust standard errors in parentheses; ** p<0.01, * p<0.05. Models differ in the specification of dependent variable (conflict type) and current vs. lagged food production terms. Models C2, C4, C6, and C8 (with lagged food production) are identical to the article s Models 1, 3, 5, and 7, respectively. Table C2. Food production growth Civil conflict onset Social unrest events Coup attempt (C9) (C10) (C11) (C12) (C13) (C14) (C15) (C16) Food prod. Δ (0.000) (0.002) (0.001) (0.001) Food prod. Δ t (0.001) (0.002) (0.001) (0.001) Time * * (0.000) (0.001) (0.006) (0.006) (0.002) (0.002) (0.001) (0.001) Conflict t ** ** 0.332** 0.332** 0.219** 0.219** (0.020) (0.021) (0.046) (0.046) (0.057) (0.056) (0.043) (0.043) Constant 0.044** 0.049** 0.600* 0.612* 0.266** 0.271** 0.093** 0.101** (0.013) (0.014) (0.237) (0.240) (0.086) (0.086) (0.015) (0.017) Observations 1,862 1, ,862 1,820 R-squared Fixed-effects OLS coefficients with robust standard errors in parentheses; ** p<0.01, * p<0.05. Models differ in the specification of dependent variable (conflict type) and current vs. lagged food production terms. Models C10, C12, C14, and C16 (with lagged food production growth) are identical to the article s Models 2, 4, 6, and 8, respectively. 9

10 Table C3. Food production, climate-sensitive subsample Civil conflict onset Social unrest events Coup attempt VARIABLES (C17) (C18) (C19) (C20) (C21) (C22) (C23) (C24) Food prod (0.514) (3.430) (1.457) (0.643) Food prod. t (0.499) (4.216) (0.673) (0.702) Time (0.001) (0.001) (0.014) (0.013) (0.004) (0.004) (0.001) (0.001) Conflict t * * 0.400** 0.395** (0.040) (0.041) (0.071) (0.071) (0.119) (0.125) (0.046) (0.046) Constant * 0.365* 0.202* 0.235* (0.071) (0.072) (0.542) (0.598) (0.192) (0.163) (0.093) (0.102) Observations R-squared Fixed-effects OLS coefficients with robust standard errors in parentheses; ** p<0.01, * p<0.05. Models differ in the specification of dependent variable (conflict type) and current vs. lagged food production terms. Table C4. Food production growth, climate-sensitive subsample Civil conflict onset Social unrest events Coup attempt (C25) (C26) (C27) (C28) (C29) (30) (C31) (C32) Food prod. Δ (0.001) (0.003) (0.001) (0.001) Food prod. Δ t (0.001) (0.003) (0.001) (0.001) Time (0.001) (0.001) (0.013) (0.013) (0.004) (0.004) (0.001) (0.001) Conflict t * * 0.399** 0.394** (0.040) (0.042) (0.071) (0.071) (0.125) (0.124) (0.046) (0.046) Constant * 0.441* 0.116** 0.119** (0.026) (0.028) (0.447) (0.451) (0.150) (0.149) (0.026) (0.028) Observations R-squared Fixed-effects OLS coefficients with robust standard errors in parentheses; ** p<0.01, * p<0.05. Models differ in the specification of dependent variable (conflict type) and current vs. lagged food production terms. 10

11 Table C5. Food production and civil conflict onset, alternative specifications (C33) (C34) (C35) (C36) (C37) (C38) (C39) (C40) (C41) (C42) (C43) (C44) VARIABLES Logit Logit OLS OLS Logit Logit OLS OLS Logit Logit OLS OLS Food prod. dev. t (0.006) Food prod. Δ t (0.013) (0.001) Food prod. t (0.282) Crops prod. dev. t (0.006) Crops prod. Δ t (0.008) (0.000) Crops t (0.288) Cereals prod. dev. t (0.006) Cereals prod. Δ t (0.003) (0.000) Cereals prod. t (0.961) GDP p.c. t (0.187) (0.185) (0.185) (0.186) (0.185) (0.202) Population 0.290** 0.291** 0.289** 0.290** 0.291** 0.280* (0.101) (0.101) (0.101) (0.101) (0.102) (0.109) Exclusion t * 1.061* 1.050* 1.061* 1.088* 0.981* (0.458) (0.460) (0.456) (0.458) (0.476) (0.461) Time (0.012) (0.011) (0.001) (0.001) (0.011) (0.011) (0.000) (0.001) (0.012) (0.012) (0.001) (0.001) Conflict t ** ** ** ** ** ** (0.377) (0.377) (0.020) (0.021) (0.369) (0.375) (0.020) (0.021) (0.374) (0.370) (0.019) (0.022) Constant ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** (1.167) (1.168) (0.044) (0.014) (1.164) (1.169) (0.033) (0.014) (1.176) (1.270) (0.026) (0.014) Observations 1,820 1,820 1,862 1,820 1,820 1,820 1,862 1,820 1,820 1,768 1,862 1,768 R-squared Country FE NO NO YES YES NO NO YES YES NO NO YES YES Logit and OLS coefficients with robust standard errors in parentheses; ** p<0.01, * p<0.05. Models differ in the choice of estimator (logit with time-varying controls or OLS with unit constants) and specification of food production terms. 11

12 Table C6. Food production and social unrest, alternative OLS specifications (C45) (C46) (C47) (C48) (C49) (C50) (C51) (C52) (C53) (C54) (C55) (C56) VARIABLES OLS OLS OLS OLS OLS OLS OLS OLS OLS OLS OLS OLS Food prod. dev. t (0.002) Food prod. Δ t (0.002) (0.002) Food prod. t (1.578) Crops prod. dev. t (0.002) Crops prod. Δ t (0.002) (0.001) Crops prod. t (1.753) Cereals prod. dev. t (0.001) Cereals prod. Δ t (0.001) (0.001) Cereals prod. t (6.301) GDP p.c. t (0.050) (0.050) (0.050) (0.050) (0.051) (0.050) Population 0.184** 0.183** 0.189** 0.183** 0.190** 0.183** (0.040) (0.040) (0.040) (0.040) (0.039) (0.040) Exclusion t (0.115) (0.115) (0.115) (0.114) (0.120) (0.115) Time (0.005) (0.005) (0.006) (0.006) (0.005) (0.005) (0.006) (0.006) (0.005) (0.005) (0.006) (0.006) Conflict t ** 0.614** 0.328** 0.332** 0.610** 0.613** 0.326** 0.332** 0.603** 0.613** 0.329** 0.332** (0.043) (0.043) (0.047) (0.046) (0.042) (0.043) (0.048) (0.046) (0.041) (0.043) (0.046) (0.046) Constant ** 0.612* ** 0.609* ** 0.610* (0.541) (0.537) (0.290) (0.240) (0.531) (0.535) (0.256) (0.240) (0.518) (0.537) (0.244) (0.241) Observations R-squared Country FE NO NO YES YES NO NO YES YES NO NO YES YES Logit and OLS coefficients with robust standard errors in parentheses ** p<0.01, * p<0.05. Models differ in the choice of time-varying controls vs. unit constants and specification of food production terms. 12

13 Table C7. Food production and social unrest, alternative negative binomial specifications (C57) (C58) (C59) (C60) (C61) (C62) (C63) (C64) (C65) (C66) (C67) (C68) VARIABLES Nbreg Nbreg Nbreg Nbreg Nbreg Nbreg Nbreg Nbreg Nbreg Nbreg Nbreg Nbreg Food prod. dev. t (0.003) Food prod. Δ t (0.003) (0.002) Food prod. t (2.152) Crops prod. dev. t (0.003) Crops prod. Δ t (0.002) (0.002) Crops prod. t (2.100) Cereals prod. dev. t * (0.002) Cereals prod. Δ t (0.001) (0.001) Cereals prod. t (9.185) GDP p.c. t * * * * * (0.073) (0.071) (0.072) (0.071) (0.075) (0.071) Population 0.289** 0.288** 0.296** 0.289** 0.304** 0.285** (0.082) (0.082) (0.082) (0.081) (0.083) (0.081) Exclusion t (0.208) (0.209) (0.205) (0.209) (0.209) (0.208) Time * * * (0.009) (0.009) (0.009) (0.009) (0.009) (0.009) (0.009) (0.009) (0.009) (0.009) (0.009) (0.009) Conflict t ** 0.053** 0.027** 0.027** 0.052** 0.053** 0.027** 0.027** 0.051** 0.053** 0.027** 0.027** (0.011) (0.011) (0.004) (0.005) (0.011) (0.011) (0.004) (0.005) (0.011) (0.011) (0.005) (0.005) Constant ** 1.375** ** 1.367** ** 1.374** (0.945) (0.931) (0.455) (0.387) (0.911) (0.927) (0.375) (0.388) (0.942) (0.920) (0.403) (0.386) Observations Lnalpha ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** (0.109) (0.108) (0.158) (0.159) (0.110) (0.109) (0.158) (0.160) (0.113) (0.108) (0.160) (0.158) Country FE NO NO YES YES NO NO YES YES NO NO YES YES Negative binomial regression coefficients with robust standard errors in parentheses; ** p<0.01, * p<0.05. Models differ in the choice of time-varying controls vs. unit constants and specification of food production terms. 13

14 Table C8. Food production and food-related unrest, alternative OLS specifications (C69) (C70) (C71) (C72) (C73) (C74) (C75) (C76) (C77) (C78) (C79) (C80) VARIABLES OLS OLS OLS OLS OLS OLS OLS OLS OLS OLS OLS OLS Food prod. dev. t (0.002) Food prod. Δ t (0.001) (0.001) Food prod. t (0.730) Crops prod. dev. t (0.002) Crops prod. Δ t (0.001) (0.001) Crops prod. t (0.609) Cereals prod. dev. t (0.001) Cereals prod. Δ t (0.000) (0.000) Cereals prod. t (2.290) GDP p.c. t (0.035) (0.037) (0.034) (0.038) (0.036) (0.037) Population 0.089* 0.092* 0.090* 0.092* 0.090* 0.092* (0.039) (0.043) (0.039) (0.043) (0.040) (0.043) Exclusion t (0.073) (0.072) (0.072) (0.072) (0.072) (0.072) Time * 0.007* * 0.007* * 0.007* (0.004) (0.004) (0.003) (0.003) (0.004) (0.004) (0.003) (0.003) (0.004) (0.004) (0.003) (0.003) Conflict t * 0.103* * 0.102* * 0.103* (0.040) (0.040) (0.023) (0.023) (0.042) (0.040) (0.023) (0.023) (0.043) (0.040) (0.022) (0.022) Constant * * * * * * (0.467) (0.542) (0.158) (0.119) (0.473) (0.543) (0.113) (0.118) (0.503) (0.545) (0.112) (0.119) Observations R-squared Country FE NO NO YES YES NO NO YES YES NO NO YES YES OLS coefficients with robust standard errors in parentheses; ** p<0.01, * p<0.05. Models differ in the choice of time-varying controls vs. unit constants and specification of food production terms. 14

15 Table C9. Food production and food-related unrest, alternative negative binomial specifications (C81) (C82) (C83) (C84) (C85) (C86) (C87) (C88) (C89) (C90) (C91) (C92) VARIABLES Nbreg Nbreg Nbreg Nbreg Nbreg Nbreg Nbreg Nbreg Nbreg Nbreg Nbreg Nbreg Food prod. dev. t (0.009) Food prod. Δ t (0.011) (0.011) Food prod. t * (4.914) Crops prod. dev. t (0.007) Crops prod. Δ t (0.008) (0.008) Crops prod. t * (3.939) Cereals prod. dev. t (0.005) Cereals prod. Δ t (0.002) (0.002) Cereals prod. t (16.073) GDP p.c. t (0.177) (0.164) (0.180) (0.164) (0.170) (0.163) Population 0.682** 0.670** 0.683** 0.672** 0.676** 0.666** (0.157) (0.152) (0.155) (0.152) (0.154) (0.151) Exclusion t (0.551) (0.558) (0.561) (0.558) (0.537) (0.563) Time ** 0.060* ** 0.060* ** 0.060* (0.025) (0.024) (0.023) (0.024) (0.025) (0.024) (0.023) (0.024) (0.025) (0.025) (0.023) (0.024) Conflict t * 0.023* * 0.023* * 0.023* (0.011) (0.011) (0.007) (0.006) (0.011) (0.011) (0.007) (0.006) (0.011) (0.011) (0.006) (0.006) Constant ** ** * ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** (1.796) (1.650) (1.087) (0.900) (1.720) (1.641) (0.828) (0.903) (1.689) (1.637) (0.938) (0.898) Observations lnalpha 0.785* 0.778* * 0.767* * 0.780* (0.388) (0.391) (0.487) (0.461) (0.380) (0.388) (0.482) (0.458) (0.390) (0.393) (0.462) (0.462) Country FE NO NO YES YES NO NO YES YES NO NO YES YES Negative binomial regression coefficients with robust standard errors in parentheses; ** p<0.01, * p<0.05. Models differ in the choice of time-varying controls vs. unit constants and specification of food production terms. 15

16 Table C10. Food production and non-state conflicts, alternative specifications (C93) (C94) (C95) (C96) (C97) (C98) (C99) (C100) (C101) (C102) (C103) (C104) VARIABLES Logit Logit OLS OLS Logit Logit OLS OLS Logit Logit OLS OLS Food prod. dev. t (0.007) Food prod. Δ t (0.009) (0.001) Food prod. t (0.424) Crops prod. dev. t (0.006) Crops prod. Δ t (0.007) (0.000) Crops prod. t (0.373) Cereals prod. dev. t (0.005) Cereals prod. Δ t (0.003) (0.000) Cereals prod. t (1.629) GDP p.c. t (0.194) (0.202) (0.190) (0.202) (0.198) (0.203) Population 0.816** 0.823** 0.851** 0.826** 0.838** 0.811** (0.166) (0.163) (0.162) (0.163) (0.168) (0.169) Exclusion t (0.636) (0.641) (0.647) (0.642) (0.640) (0.635) Time ** ** ** ** ** ** (0.020) (0.019) (0.002) (0.002) (0.019) (0.019) (0.002) (0.002) (0.020) (0.019) (0.002) (0.002) Conflict t ** 2.600** 0.217** 0.219** 2.551** 2.594** 0.217** 0.219** 2.585** 2.616** 0.220** 0.224** (0.414) (0.412) (0.057) (0.056) (0.391) (0.412) (0.058) (0.056) (0.412) (0.416) (0.057) (0.057) Constant * * 0.320** 0.271** * * 0.312** 0.270** * * 0.261** 0.276** (2.871) (2.830) (0.091) (0.086) (2.689) (2.820) (0.086) (0.086) (2.775) (2.838) (0.083) (0.086) Observations R-squared Country FE NO NO YES YES NO NO YES YES NO NO YES YES Logit and OLS coefficients with robust standard errors in parentheses; ** p<0.01, * p<0.05. Models differ in the choice of estimator (logit with time-varying controls or OLS with unit constants) and specification of food production terms. 16

17 Table C11. Food production and coup attempts, alternative specifications (C105) (C106) (C107) (C108) (C109) (C110) (C111) (C112) (C113) (C114) (C115) (C116) VARIABLES Logit Logit OLS OLS Logit Logit OLS OLS Logit Logit OLS OLS Food prod. dev. t (0.007) Food prod. Δ t (0.011) (0.001) Food prod. t (0.344) Crops prod. dev. t (0.006) Crops prod. Δ t (0.007) (0.000) Crops prod. t (0.397) Cereals prod. dev. t * (0.003) Cereals prod. Δ t (0.002) (0.000) Cereals prod. t ** (1.033) GDP p.c. t * * * * * * (0.167) (0.168) (0.168) (0.168) (0.165) (0.172) Population (0.114) (0.121) (0.118) (0.121) (0.120) (0.126) Exclusion t (0.291) (0.311) (0.283) (0.311) (0.297) (0.320) Time * * * * * * * * * * * * (0.012) (0.010) (0.001) (0.001) (0.011) (0.010) (0.001) (0.001) (0.010) (0.010) (0.001) (0.001) Conflict t ** 1.000** ** 0.997** ** 1.005** (0.352) (0.350) (0.042) (0.043) (0.356) (0.350) (0.042) (0.043) (0.350) (0.350) (0.043) (0.043) Constant ** 0.101** ** 0.101** ** 0.102** (1.739) (1.779) (0.055) (0.017) (1.775) (1.778) (0.047) (0.017) (1.783) (1.811) (0.028) (0.016) Observations 1,820 1,820 1,862 1,820 1,820 1,820 1,862 1,820 1,820 1,768 1,862 1,768 R-squared Country FE NO NO YES YES NO NO YES YES NO NO YES YES Logit and OLS coefficients with robust standard errors in parentheses; ** p<0.01, * p<0.05. Models differ in the choice of estimator (logit with time-varying controls or OLS with unit constants) and specification of food production terms. 17

18 D. CLIMATE AND CONFLICT: REDUCED-FORM MODELS Table D1. Rainfall, temperature, and political violence Civil conflict onset Social unrest events Coup attempt SSA Subset SSA Subset SSA Subset SSA Subset VARIABLES (D1) (D2) (D3) (D4) (D5) (D6) (D7) (D8) Rainfall (0.027) (0.074) (0.137) (0.515) (0.056) (0.206) (0.033) (0.117) Rainfall t * (0.018) (0.051) (0.158) (0.559) (0.062) (0.291) (0.033) (0.129) Temperature (0.011) (0.023) (0.066) (0.162) (0.029) (0.061) (0.016) (0.028) Temperature t (0.012) (0.019) (0.089) (0.234) (0.027) (0.069) (0.019) (0.035) Time (0.001) (0.001) (0.007) (0.023) (0.003) (0.007) (0.001) (0.001) Conflict t ** * 0.322** 0.388** 0.230** 0.248* (0.021) (0.041) (0.045) (0.080) (0.058) (0.114) (0.040) (0.049) Constant (0.359) (0.914) (2.673) (8.426) (1.035) (2.157) (0.587) (1.203) Observations 2, , R-squared Number of countries Fixed-effects OSL coefficients with robust standard errors in parentheses; ** p<0.01, * p<0.05. Models differ in the specification of dependent variable (conflict type) and full sample vs. climate-sensitive subsample. 18

19 E. FOOD AND CONFLICT: INSTRUMENTAL VARIABLE ANALYSIS Table E1. Food production instrumented by weather patterns Civil conflict onset Social unrest events Coup attempt (D9) (D10) (D11) (D12) (D13) (D14) (D15) (D16) Food prod (0.869) (19.202) (4.402) (0.916) Food prod. t (0.786) (21.276) (4.175) (1.082) Time ** (0.001) (0.001) (0.017) (0.016) (0.004) (0.003) (0.001) (0.001) Conflict t ** ** 0.367** 0.364** 0.233** 0.234** (0.021) (0.021) (0.061) (0.062) (0.070) (0.059) (0.041) (0.041) Constant ** (0.144) (0.132) (2.503) (2.709) (0.575) (0.565) (0.147) (0.170) Observations 1,836 1, ,843 1,862 R-squared Number of countries Country FE YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES Prec. 1st stage.086**.086** *.028*.037**.082**.085** Prec. sq. 1st stage -.026** -.026** * -.025** -.026** Temp. 1st stage Temp. sq. 1st stage Endogeneity test F/.p 2.25/ / / / / / / /.09 Prob. Bassman overid Prob. Sargan overid Fixed-effects OSL coefficients with robust standard errors in parentheses; ** p<0.01, * p<0.05. Instruments are linear and squared precipitation and temperature, and a lagged dependent variable and a common time-trend. Models differ in the specification of dependent variable (conflict type) and current vs lagged instruments. 19

20 Table E2. Food production growth instrumented by weather patterns Civil conflict onset Social unrest events Coup attempt (D17) (D18) (D19) (D20) (D21) (D22) (D23) (D24) Food prod. Δ (0.003) (0.012) (0.004) (0.002) Food prod. Δ t (0.003) (0.015) (0.004) (0.004) Time * (0.000) (0.001) (0.007) (0.006) (0.003) (0.002) (0.001) (0.001) Conflict t ** ** 0.324** 0.335** 0.237** 0.215** (0.020) (0.020) (0.045) (0.045) (0.057) (0.054) (0.043) (0.043) Constant 0.135** 0.139** 1.150** 1.213** 0.813** 0.863** 0.166** 0.174** (0.017) (0.020) (0.250) (0.238) (0.096) (0.083) (0.016) (0.017) Observations 1,820 1, ,820 1,820 R-squared Number of countries Country FE YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES Prec. 1st stage 28.1** 28.2** 36.8** 36.4** 37.0** 37.8** 28.2** 28.1** Prec. sq. 1st stage -7.82** -7.83** -12.6** -12.3** -12.5** -12.8** -7.85** -7.82** Temp. 1st stage -1.61* -1.61* * -1.60* Endogeneity test 1.34/ / / / / / / /0.04 Prob. Bassman overid Prob. Sargan overid Fixed-effects OSL coefficients with robust standard errors in parentheses; ** p<0.01, * p<0.05. Instruments are linear and squared precipitation and linear temperature of the country of concern, and a lagged dependent variable and a common time-trend. The square of temperature is left out due to its very high correlation with the linear term. Models differ in the specification of dependent variable (conflict type) and current vs lagged instruments. 20

21 Table E3. Food production instrumented by weather patterns, climate sensitive subsample Civil conflict onset Social unrest events Coup attempt (D25) (D26) (D27) (D28) (D29) (D30) (D31) (D32) Food prod (1.227) (8.420) (4.877) (1.375) Food prod. t (1.026) (12.996) (5.643) (1.442) Time (0.001) (0.001) (0.016) (0.014) (0.005) (0.004) (0.001) (0.001) Conflict t * * 0.396** 0.395** 0.266* 0.238* (0.038) (0.040) (0.078) (0.069) (0.116) (0.118) (0.042) (0.042) Constant (0.200) (0.162) (1.217) (1.714) (0.552) (0.768) (0.212) (0.225) Observations R-squared Number of countries Country FE YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES Prec. 1st stage.157**.157**.068**.075**.081**.092**.157**.156** Prec. sq. 1st stage -.057** -.056** -.029** -.032** -.034** -.037** -.056** -.056** Temp. 1st stage Temp. sq. 1st stage Endogeneity test.482/ / / / / / / /.24 Prob. Bassman overid Prob. Sargan overid Fixed-effects OSL coefficients with robust standard errors in parentheses; ** p<0.01, * p<0.05. Instruments are linear and squared precipitation and temperature of the country of concern, and a lagged dependent variable and a common time-trend. Models differ in the specification of dependent variable (conflict type) and current vs lagged instruments. 21

22 Table E4. Food production growth instrumented by weather patterns, climate sensitive subsample Civil conflict onset Social unrest events Coup attempt (D33) (D34) (D35) (D36) (D37) (D38) (D39) (D40) Food prod. Δ (0.002) (0.006) (0.005) (0.002) Food prod.δ t (0.002) (0.012) (0.006) (0.003) Time * (0.001) (0.001) (0.014) (0.013) (0.004) (0.004) (0.001) (0.001) Conflict t * * 0.395** 0.397** 0.255* 0.231* (0.040) (0.040) (0.075) (0.067) (0.118) (0.116) (0.045) (0.044) Constant 0.144** 0.154** ** 0.973** 0.184** 0.191** (0.036) (0.040) (0.480) (0.405) (0.128) (0.128) (0.027) (0.028) Observations R-squared Number of countries Country FE YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES Prec. 1st stage 83.5** 83.9** 90.7** 85.9** 89.3** 90.8** 84.0** 83.8** Prec. sq. 1st stage -29.5** -29.6** -35.8** -33.9** -35.6** -35.2** -30.0** -29.6** Temp. 1st stage -3.00* Endogeneity test.178/ / / / / / / /.94 Prob. Bassman overid Prob. Sargan overid Fixed-effects OSL coefficients with robust standard errors in parentheses; ** p<0.01, * p<0.05. Instruments are linear and squared precipitation and linear temperature of the country of concern, and a lagged dependent variable and a common time-trend. The square of temperature is left out due to very high correlation with the linear term. Models differ in the specification of dependent variable (conflict type) and current vs lagged instruments. 22

23 Table E5. Crops production instrumented by weather patterns Civil conflict onset Social unrest events Coup attempt (D41) (D42) (D43) (D44) (D45) (D46) (D47) (D48) Crops prod (0.955) (15.334) (3.841) (1.244) Crops prod. t (0.879) (17.059) (4.190) (1.419) Time * (0.001) (0.001) (0.014) (0.014) (0.004) (0.003) (0.001) (0.001) Conflict t ** ** 0.369** 0.358** 0.244** 0.227** (0.021) (0.022) (0.057) (0.062) (0.064) (0.056) (0.041) (0.041) Constant ** 0.767** ** (0.093) (0.089) (0.822) (0.834) (0.204) (0.239) (0.114) (0.130) Observations 1,836 1, ,843 1,862 R-squared Fixed-effects OSL coefficients with robust standard errors in parentheses; ** p<0.01, * p<0.05. Instruments are linear and squared precipitation and temperature of the country of concern, and a lagged dependent variable and a common time-trend. Models differ in the specification of dependent variable (conflict type) and current vs lagged instruments. Table E6. Crops production instrumented by weather patterns, climate sensitive subsample Civil conflict onset Social unrest events Coup attempt (D49) (D50) (D51) (D52) (D53) (D54) (D55) (D56) Crops prod * (1.534) (8.672) (6.184) (1.700) Crops prod. t (1.095) (13.287) (6.794) (1.728) Time * (0.001) (0.001) (0.016) (0.013) (0.004) (0.004) (0.001) (0.001) Conflict t * * 0.405** 0.397** 0.267* 0.237* (0.037) (0.040) (0.076) (0.067) (0.112) (0.118) (0.042) (0.043) Constant * 0.958* (0.139) (0.101) (0.681) (0.949) (0.323) (0.464) (0.142) (0.139) Observations R-squared Fixed-effects OSL coefficients with robust standard errors in parentheses; ** p<0.01, * p<0.05. Instruments are linear and squared precipitation and linear temperature of the country of concern, and a lagged dependent variable and a common time-trend. The square of temperature is left out due to its very high correlation with the linear term. Models differ in the specification of dependent variable (conflict type) and current vs lagged instruments. 23

24 Table E7. Cereals production instrumented by weather patterns Civil conflict onset Social unrest events Coup attempt (D57) (D58) (D59) (D60) (D61) (D62) (D63) (D64) Cereals prod (2.444) (21.236) (6.086) (2.564) Cereals prod. t (2.404) (23.822) (6.825) (3.559) Time * (0.001) (0.001) (0.007) (0.007) (0.003) (0.002) (0.001) (0.001) Conflict t ** ** 0.324** 0.330** 0.241** 0.219** (0.020) (0.019) (0.045) (0.047) (0.055) (0.055) (0.041) (0.041) Constant ** 1.283** 0.691** 0.891** 0.160** 0.298** (0.057) (0.057) (0.424) (0.434) (0.123) (0.142) (0.059) (0.078) Observations 1,836 1, ,843 1,862 R-squared Fixed-effects OSL coefficients with robust standard errors in parentheses; ** p<0.01, * p<0.05. Instruments are linear and squared precipitation and temperature of the country of concern, and a lagged dependent variable and a common time-trend. Models differ in the specification of dependent variable (conflict type) and current vs lagged instruments. Table E8. Cereals production instrumented by weather patterns, climate sensitive subsample Civil conflict onset Social unrest events Coup attempt (D65) (D66) (D67) (D68) (D69) (D70) (D71) (D72) Cereals prod (2.981) (15.182) (10.319) (3.090) Cereals prod. t (2.480) (24.348) (11.441) (4.104) Time * (0.001) (0.001) (0.014) (0.013) (0.004) (0.004) (0.001) (0.001) Conflict t ** * 0.388** 0.395** 0.254* (0.037) (0.042) (0.075) (0.068) (0.116) (0.124) (0.044) (0.043) Constant ** ** 1.046** 0.158* (0.070) (0.054) (0.572) (0.581) (0.119) (0.245) (0.068) (0.084) Observations R-squared Fixed-effects OSL coefficients with robust standard errors in parentheses; ** p<0.01, * p<0.05. Instruments are linear and squared precipitation and linear temperature of the country of concern, and a lagged dependent variable and a common time-trend. The square of temperature is left out due to its very high correlation with the linear term. Models differ in the specification of dependent variable (conflict type) and current vs lagged instruments. 24