D E R B Y, D E R B Y S H I R E, N O T T I N G H A M & N O T T I N G H A M S H I R E L M I S U M M A R Y

Transcription

1 D E R B Y, D E R B Y S H I R E, N O T T I N G H A M & N O T T I N G H A M S H I R E L M I S U M M A R Y

2 2 A B O U T This dcument prvides a summary f key findings fr the Derby, Derbyshire, Nttingham and Nttinghamshire LEP area, based n findings frm three majr UKCES research prducts: Wrking Futures, the Emplyer Skills Survey (ESS) and the Emplyer Perspectives Survey (EPS). Thrughut the dcument, findings fr the LEP area are cmpared with England r the UK as a whle. Fr ESS and EPS differences are nly reprted when they are statistically significant; when figures are described as similar r n different, this means that there is n statistically significant difference. Whilst the percentages may differ slightly between the figure fr the LEP area and England/the UK, when we say similar it means that we cannt be cnfident that the difference is due t anything mre than chance. In the case f Wrking Futures statistical significance is a mre cmplex issue, since the analysis is frwardlking. The published guidelines relating t the interpretatin f this dataset have been fllwed. WF Wrking Futures Wrking Futures uses rbust surces f natinal data n demgraphics, educatin, emplyment and the ecnmy t make prjectins f the UK labur market. Whilst nt a crystal-ball, Wrking Futures mves beynd anecdtal guesses t prvide rigrus, evidence-based prjectins thrugh the applicatin f prven mdels. E S S Emplyer Skills Survey The Emplyer Skills Survey is the UK s definitive surce f intelligence n emplyer investment. Explring the skills challenges that emplyers face, the levels and nature f training investment, recruitment f yung peple and the relatinship between skills challenges and business strategy, the ESS gives us a reliable, timely and valuable insight int the skills issues emplyers face. E P S Emplyer Perspectives Survey The Emplyer Perspectives Survey prvides insights int the thughts and behaviur f UK Emplyers as they make decisins abut hw t engage with training prviders, schls, clleges and individuals in the wider skills system, t get the skills they need.

3 3 W O R K I N G F U T U R E S Jbs and the ecnmy The verall picture fr the UK ecnmy ver the next decade ( ) is ne f gradual upturn, but with n quick return t lng term trends as bserved fllwing previus recessins. Overall, the number f jbs in the Derby, Derbyshire, Nttingham and Nttinghamshire LEP area is prjected t rise by arund 47,000 ver the next decade ( ), an average annual rate f grwth f 0.4 per cent. This is smewhat lwer than the UK average rate (0.6 per cent). Sectrs The sectr prfile f the LEP area is bradly similar t the UK as a whle. Hwever, the Derby, Derbyshire, Nttingham and Nttinghamshire LEP area is smewhat ver-represented, relative t the UK, in manufacturing (excluding engineering) and in the cnstructin sectr. It is under-represented in prfessinal services, as well as in finance and insurance. Private sectr services as a whle are expected t cntribute arund 90 per cent f net jb grwth in the LEP area between 2012 and 2022, higher than the UK average f 85 per cent. The leading surces f emplyment grwth in the Derby, Derbyshire, Nttingham and Nttinghamshire LEP area (in abslute terms) are frecast t be cnstructin (+13,000), whlesale and retail trades (+10,000), health and scial care (+9,000), supprt services (+9,000) and Infrmatin Technlgy (+8,000). Public administratin is prjected t see a net decline in its level f emplyment between 2012 and 2022 in the LEP area (lss f 4,000 jbs, equivalent t a fall f 7 per cent); this decline is in line with the verall UK picture. Manufacturing is prjected t see a cntinued decline in jbs (with a lss f 9,000 jbs the equivalent f a fall f 8 per cent - ver the decade in the LEP area). Again, this decline reflects the wider picture in the UK. Occupatins The Derby, Derbyshire, Nttingham and Nttinghamshire LEP area has a slightly lwer representatin f emplyment in higher skilled ccupatins, cmpared with the UK as a whle. In the LEP area, 39 per cent f emplyment is in the three high skilled ccupatinal grups: managers, prfessinals and assciate prfessinals. This cmpares with a UK average f 43 per cent. Hwever, this difference is partly the result f a much higher figure in Lndn (57 per cent). The prprtin f emplyment in the three lwest-skilled ccupatins is slightly higher than the UK average. In the LEP area, 27 per cent f emplyment is in sales r custmer service, plant/prcess peratives and elementary rles, cmpared with a UK average f 25 per cent. The prprtin emplyed in middle-ranking ccupatins is slightly higher than the UK average: jbs in administrative, skilled trades and caring/leisure rles accunt fr 34 per cent f emplyment in the LEP area, cmpared with 32 per cent in the UK. As with the wider UK picture, we expect t see jb grwth cncentrated in higher level rles, as well as in lwer level rles relating t care. The prjectins fr the LEP area are fr: 60,000 additinal high level jbs (fr managers, prfessinals and assciate prfessinals), with arund half f these in prfessinal rles. Higher skilled jbs are expected t grw at a slightly lwer rate than in the UK as a whle (15 per cent cmpared with 17 per cent ver the curse f the decade). 27,000 fewer jbs in middle ranking administrative, secretarial and skilled trades ccupatins. Nevertheless, these areas f decline are expected t remain significant surces f emplyment by the end f the decade. Fr example, there are still

4 34 expected t be arund 102,000 administrative and secretarial jbs in 2022 in the LEP area, despite the lss f arund 15,000 jbs in the previus decade. Arund 26,000 additinal jbs in caring r leisure rles. Wmen are expected t take tw thirds f the additinal high level jbs created in the LEP area ver the decade, as well as mst f the additinal jbs in caring rles. Hwever, female wrkers will be hit by the lsses nted abve in sales, administrative and elementary jbs. Qualificatins As a result f supply and demand factrs, the qualificatin prfile f emplyment is expected t shift markedly in the LEP area: The prprtin f jbs held by peple qualified at a higher level (level 4 and abve) is prjected t increase frm 36 per cent t 46 per cent between 2012 and Wrkers with lw qualificatins (belw level 2) are expected t decline frm 20 per cent t 14 per cent f the ttal wrkfrce ver this perid. Replacement Demands We estimate that replacement demands (i.e. jb penings created by peple leaving the labur frce temprarily r permanently) will cntribute mre than eight times as many jb penings as net jb grwth ver the next decade: 404,000 penings cmpared with 47,000. Replacement demands mean that there will be a need t recruit suitably skilled peple acrss all brad ccupatinal grups, including thse prjected t decline: Fr sme ccupatinal grups (mstly higher skilled nes), we expect t see strng net grwth in the number f jbs, supplemented by large replacement demands. Fr example, net grwth f 29,000 jbs in prfessinal rles is prjected t be supplemented by 71,000 jb penings arising frm replacement demands. Fr thse ccupatinal areas in which we expect t see a net decline in the number f jbs, replacement demands mean that we can still expect a strng supply f jb penings. Fr example, in administrative rles, it is prjected that a net lss f arund 5,000 jbs will be mre than ffset by 37,000 jb penings resulting frm replacement demands.

5 5 E M P L O Y E R S K I L L S S U R V E Y 2013 Skill shrtages Arund ne in eight emplyers in the Derby, Derbyshire, Nttingham and Nttinghamshire LEP area (13 per cent) reprted vacancies at the time f the survey (March t July 2013). This is slightly lwer than the figure fr England as a whle (15 per cent). While in mst cases demand fr skills is met thrugh successful recruitment, just under a third f vacancies in the LEP area (31 per cent) are reprted t be hard-t-fill. This is slightly higher than the England average (28 per cent). When asked (withut prmpting) abut the main reasns fr hard-t-fill vacancies in their establishment, a shrtage f suitably skilled wrkers is seen as the main reasn in the Derby, Derbyshire, Nttingham and Nttinghamshire LEP area, fllwed by pr terms and cnditins (e.g. pay) ffered fr the pst. While a lack f skills is als the main reasn given in England as a whle, pr terms and cnditins is mre likely t be a reasn in the LEP area than in the rest f England. Overall, skill-shrtage vacancies represent 19 per cent f all vacancies in the LEP area, slightly lwer than the England-wide figure (22 per cent). Skill gaps Mst emplyers say that they have a prficient wrkfrce with n skill gaps. Hwever, arund ne in seven (14 per cent) reprt skills gaps in the LEP area, similar t England as a whle (15 per cent). This represents fur per cent f the ttal wrkfrce in Derby, Derbyshire, Nttingham and Nttinghamshire, again similar t the figure fr the whle f England (five per cent). In mst cases, prficiency prblems are due at least in part t emplyees being new in their rles and/r still in training fr their rles. These factrs accunt at least in part fr 77 per cent f all skills gaps in the LEP area, similar t England as a whle (75 per cent). In Derby, Derbyshire, Nttingham and Nttinghamshire and in England mre widely, the main impact f prficiency prblems is an increased wrklad fr ther staff. In the LEP area, the ccupatins where (internal) skills gaps are mst acute are elementary jbs, while (external) skill shrtages are mst cmmn fr skilled trades and fr caring, leisure and ther service staff. In general, emplyers tend t be challenged either in terms f having inadequate skills amng sme f their existing wrkfrce r struggling t find new recruits with the skills that the vacant psitins require. It is very rare fr emplyers t be challenged frm bth directins; just ne per cent f all emplyers experience bth skill-shrtage vacancies and skills gaps; this prprtin is the same in the LEP area as in England as a whle. Just ver tw in five emplyers in the LEP area (42 per cent) reprt skills under-use (i.e. they have staff wh are ver-skilled and verqualified fr the jbs that they are currently ding); this is lwer than the England-wide figure f 48 per cent. Training and Wrkfrce Develpment Mst emplyers fund r arrange training fr their staff: in the LEP area, tw-thirds had dne s ver the previus 12 mnths (66 per cent); this is in line with the England-wide figure (als 66 per cent). Just under half f emplyers in the LEP area prvide ff-the-jb training (46 per cent), while arund ne in five ffer n-the-jb training nly (19 per cent). These prprtins are very similar t the England-wide average figures (48 per cent and 17 per cent respectively). The number f staff receiving training in the LEP area is in line with England generally. In Derby, Derbyshire, Nttingham and Nttinghamshire, 62 per cent f staff received training in the previus 12 mnths, the same as the England-wide figure.

6 6 Hwever, the number f days training was higher in the LEP area than in England as a whle. Each persn trained received an average f 7.6 days training ver the previus 12 mnths in the LEP area, cmpared with 6.7 days n average in England. While mst emplyers culd be described as being in training equilibrium having been able t prvide all the training that they wanted ver the previus 12 mnths, arund tw-fifths f all emplyers in the LEP area (39 per cent, including nn-trainers that had nt delivered any) wanted t prvide mre training than they had been able t d. This is slightly lwer than the prprtin in England as a whle (42 per cent). Recruitment f Yung Peple A quarter f emplyers in the LEP area (25 per cent) recruited at least ne educatin leaver in the tw t three years preceding the survey, similar t the England-wide figure (27 per cent). Specifically: Mre than ne in fur emplyers in the LEP area (27 per cent) recruited at least ne educatin leaver in the tw t three years preceding the survey. This prprtin is the same as fr England as a whle, and recruitment f schl and cllege leavers specifically was als at a similar level t the England average. In the LEP area: Nine per cent had recruited a 16 year-ld schl leaver; 11 per cent had recruited a year ld schl leaver; 13 per cent had recruited a year ld cllege leaver; Nine per cent emplyers in the Derby, Derbyshire, Nttingham and Nttinghamshire LEP area had recruited smene frm a university r HEI, lwer than the England figure f 14 per cent. High Perfrmance Wrking practices and Prduct Market Strategies High Perfrmance Wrking (HPW) is defined by the UK Cmmissin as a general apprach t managing rganisatins that aims t stimulate mre effective emplyee invlvement and cmmitment in rder t achieve high levels f perfrmance (UKCES 2009). The survey identifies a minrity f emplyers 12 per cent in the LEP area wh are HPW emplyers in the sense that they adpt a number f HPW practices. This prprtin is the same in England as a whle. Prduct Market Strategies (PMS) are defined within the survey by aggregating respnses t a series f questins explring pricing strategies, appraches t innvatin and the nature f the prduct market (the extent t which the market attracts a premium and the extent f custmisatin f prducts and services in the market). Aggregating these respnses classifies just under half f private sectr emplyers in Derby, Derbyshire, Nttingham and Nttinghamshire (47 per cent) as having a high r very high prduct market strategy, indicating that their cmpetitive success is nt dependent n price, they pursue innvatin, they cmpete n quality and/r that they ffer custmised gds r services. This is n a par with the prprtin in England as a whle (45 per cent).

7 7 E M P L O Y E R P E R S P E C T I V E S S U R V E Y 2014 Emplyer Perspectives n Recruitment Arund tw in five emplyers in the Derby, Derbyshire, Nttingham and Nttinghamshire LEP area (42 per cent) recrded at least ne vacancy in the 12 mnths preceding the survey. This is lwer than the prprtin acrss England as a whle (50 per cent). Relevant wrk experience was rated by arund tw-thirds f recruiting emplyers in Derby, Derbyshire, Nttingham and Nttinghamshire (68 per cent) as being a critical r significant factr lked fr in candidates. Cre Maths and English skills fllwed next, rated as critical r significant by 60 per cent f recruiting emplyers. Arund half f recruiting emplyers rated vcatinal qualificatins as critical r significant (48 per cent), and the same prprtin (48 per cent) said this abut academic qualificatins. These pririties reflect the wider picture acrss England. Over time, the survey as a whle has seen an increasing imprtance placed n bth academic and vcatinal qualificatins by recruiting emplyers. Overall, ne in fur emplyers in Derby, Derbyshire, Nttingham and Nttinghamshire (25 per cent) had taken n smene under the age f 25 in the previus 12 mnths, slightly lwer than the England-wide figure (31 per cent). On the ther hand, ne in seven emplyers had taken n smene aged 50 years r lder (14 per cent), similar t the prprtin in England as a whle (13 per cent). Emplyer Perspectives n Wrk Experience Arund a third (34 per cent) f emplyers in the LEP area had prvided individuals with wrk placements in the previus 12 mnths, while 17 per cent had cnducted wrk inspiratin activities with peple in educatin (such as mck interviews, delivering talks and hlding site visits fr students). These prprtins are similar t the average figures acrss England. EPS 2014 canvassed emplyers awareness f Traineeships and fund that arund three-quarters f emplyers in Derby, Derbyshire, Nttingham and Nttinghamshire (76 per cent) had heard f the scheme, higher than the figure fr England (68 per cent). Hwever, the survey as a whle indicates that many f these emplyers had limited knwledge f the scheme. Emplyer Perspectives n Peple Develpment A cnsiderable prprtin f emplyers in Derby, Derbyshire, Nttingham and Nttinghamshire use external prviders t deliver training (43 per cent), althugh internal training prvisin is mre cmmn (52 per cent). The figure fr external training is similar fr England as a whle, whereas the prprtin ffering internal training is slightly lwer in the LEP area than in England generally. Emplyers mst cmmnly lk t private prviders (private sectr training firms r third sectr prviders) when they are lking utside f their wn rganisatin t deliver training: 39 per cent f all emplyers in the LEP area engaged the services f private prviders (similar t the England-wide figure), while nly ten per cent used FE Clleges (slightly higher than the England-wide figure) and six per cent HEIs (similar t the figure fr the whle f England). The survey as a whle indicates that the gap between use f private and public prvisin has widened in recent years. Just under a quarter f establishments in Derby, Derbyshire, Nttingham and Nttinghamshire (22 per cent) ffer training that is designed t lead t a vcatinal qualificatin (slightly lwer than the figure fr the whle f England 26 per cent). Arund ne in six emplyers in the LEP area (18 per cent) had wrked with ther emplyers t access, develp r share expertise n skills and training. This is in line with the prprtin fr England as a whle (17 per cent). In general, the survey fund that the nature f these relatinships was equally likely t be frmal r infrmal/ad hc.

8 8 Arund ne in three establishments in Derby, Derbyshire, Nttingham and Nttinghamshire (32 per cent) had sught external infrmatin, advice r ther practical help n skills and training-related issues in the last 12 mnths. This is higher than the Englandwide figure (27 per cent). Natinal Occupatinal Standards (NOS) specify the standard f perfrmance an individual must achieve when carrying ut a functin in the wrkplace, tgether with the knwledge and understanding they need t meet that standard cnsistently. Bradly speaking, there was sme awareness f the standards: almst half f all emplyers in the LEP area (45 per cent) had heard f Natinal Occupatinal Standards; this is higher than the prprtin in England generally (39 per cent). Emplyer Perspectives n Apprenticeships One in six emplyers in the LEP area (17 per cent) ffer frmal Apprenticeships (fllwing a framewrk and designed t lead t a natinally recgnised qualificatin), similar t the England-wide figure f 15 per cent. At the time f the survey, 40 per cent f all emplyers in the Derby, Derbyshire, Nttingham and Nttinghamshire LEP area were expecting t ffer frmal Apprenticeships in the future (higher than the figure f 35 per cent fr England as a whle).

9 UK Cmmissin fr Emplyment and Skills (UKCES)