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1 PSG's Weekly Chart Perspective Portfolio Strategy Group Report Date: Monday, September 27, 21 Daily Close UST 1 Year CMT 5 Year History US Recession Sep-5 Dec-5 Mar-6 Jun-6 Sep-6 Dec-6 Mar-7 Jun-7 Sep-7 Dec-7 Mar-8 Jun-8 Sep-8 Dec-8 Mar-9 Jun-9 Sep-9 Dec-9 Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 YIELD CURVES Treasury, Agency Bullets, California GO Yield to Maturity Maturity Years ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE SECURITIES MENTIONED IS AVAILABLE ON REQUEST. This does not purport to be a complete statement of all material facts relating to securities mentioned. The information contained, while not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness, has been obtained from sources, which we believe to be reliable. Opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This notice shall not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor shall there be any sale of these securities in any state in which said offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities law of any such state. Stone & Youngberg LLC and its officers and employees may have an interest in some or all of any securities mentioned herein. Member FINRA/SIPC. Stone & Youngberg LLC, 1 Ferry Building San Francisco, CA
2 PSG Chart Perspective INTEREST RATE TRENDS 9/27/21 UST Yield Curves Year Ago, 3 Days Ago, Current 1 Week Ago Yield C. Current Yield C. Yr Ago Yield C Day Trend 3 Month T-Bill & 1 Year CMT 3 Mo T-Bill Yield 1 year CMT MATURITY YEARS -.25 Jun-29 Jul-9 Jul-19 Jul-29 Aug-8 Aug-18 Sep-7 Sep-17 Sep-27 SWAP Curve Year Ago, 3 Days Ago, Current Yr Ago Yield C. 1 Week Ago Yield C. Current Yield C. 9 Day Trend 2 YEAR, 1 YEAR & 3 YEAR CMS 2 year CMS 1 year CMS 3 year CMS MATURITY YEARS.6 Jun-29 Jul-9 Jul-19 Jul-29 Aug-8 Aug-18 Sep-7 Sep-17 Sep-27 Agency & Treasury Yield Curves Current AGY Yield Curve Current UST Curve Agency Zero, TSY Strip & Current TSY Yield Curves Agency Zero Treasury Strip Current UST Curve MATURITY YEARS MATURITY YEARS STONE and YOUNGBERG PORTFOLIO STRATEGY GROUP Page 2 of 9
3 PSG Chart Perspective MORTGAGE STATISTICS 9/27/21 1 YEAR Weekly Close 1 Year TSY, 3 Yr Jumbo Mtge & FNMA 3 Yr Commitment Rate Jumbo Mtge (Left Scale) FNMA Comt Rate (Left Scale) 1 Yr TSY (Right Scale) 1 YEAR Weekly Close SPREAD 3 Yr FNMA Mtge - 1 Year TSY & 3 Yr Jumbo - 1 Year TSY Spread 3 Yr FNMA Mtge Spread 3 Yr Jumbo Mtge - 1 Yr TSY Oct-9 Dec-9 Jan-1 Mar-1 Apr-1 Jun-1 Aug-1 Sep-1 Oct-9 Dec-9 Jan-1 Mar-1 Apr-1 Jun-1 Aug-1 Sep-1 1 YEAR Weekly Close MBA Purchases & Refi Indices NSA 346 Mortgage Purchases (Left Scale) Mortgage Refinancings (Right Scale) 4,87 WEEKLY CLOSING: 1 Yr ARM, 3 Yr FNMA & JUMBO MTG RATES 296 4,37 Trading Day 1 Year ARM 3 Year FNMA 3 Year JUMBO ,87 3,37 2,87 2,37 1,87 1,37 24-Sep % 3.76% 5.32% 17-Sep % 3.92% 5.34% 1-Sep % 3.9% 5.4% 3-Sep % 3.78% 5.5% 27-Aug % 3.72% 5.45% 2-Aug % 3.69% 5.34% 13-Aug % 3.85% 5.37% 6-Aug % 3.94% 5.44% 3-Jul % 3.96% 5.42% 23-Jul % 4.3% 5.43% 16-Jul % 4.2% 5.44% 9-Jul % 4.12% 5.47% 2-Jul-1 3.2% 4.11% 5.49% Oct-9 Nov-9 Jan-1 Mar-1 Apr-1 Jun-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Source: Bankrate.com US and efanniemae.com 24 1 YEAR Weekly Close MBA Total Average Loan Size Current MBA Ave Loan Size = YEAR Weekly Close 1 Yr ARM (Bankrate.com) vs. 12 Mo LIBOR 1 Year ARM 12 Month LIBOR Oct-9 Nov-9 Jan-1 Mar-1 Apr-1 Jun-1 Jul-1 Sep Oct-9 Dec-9 Jan-1 Mar-1 Apr-1 Jun-1 Aug-1 Sep-1 STONE and YOUNGBERG PORTFOLIO STRATEGY GROUP Page 3 of 9
4 PSG Chart Perspective EQUITY/COMMODITY INDICES 9/27/21 DJIA and S&P INDICES - 9 Day Trend DJIA (RIGHT scale) S&P 5 (LEFT scale) 1, NASDAQ FINANCIAL INDEX (1 largest financial companies) 1,15 1,13 1,11 1,9 1,77 1,67 1,57 1,47 1, ,7 1, ,5 1,17 1, ,3 12-Aug 17-Aug 2-Aug 25-Aug 3-Aug 2-Sep 8-Sep 13-Sep 16-Sep 21-Sep 24-Sep 9, Aug 17-Aug 2-Aug 25-Aug 3-Aug 2-Sep 8-Sep 13-Sep 16-Sep 21-Sep 24-Sep CRUDE OIL SPOT PRICE $ bbl. - 3 Day Trend $1,3 GOLD SPOT PRICE $ oz - 3 Day Trend $1,29 $76 $1,28 $1,27 x $74 $1,26 $1,25 $72 $1,24 $1,23 $7 12-Aug 17-Aug 2-Aug 25-Aug 3-Aug 2-Sep 8-Sep 13-Sep 16-Sep 21-Sep 24-Sep $1,22 16-Aug 19-Aug 24-Aug 27-Aug 1-Sep 6-Sep 9-Sep 14-Sep 17-Sep 22-Sep 27-Sep DOLLAR INDEX SPOT 1973=1 CRB INDEX - 3 Day Trend Aug 31-Aug 3-Sep 6-Sep 9-Sep 12-Sep 15-Sep 18-Sep 21-Sep 24-Sep 27-Sep Aug 19-Aug 24-Aug 27-Aug 1-Sep 6-Sep 9-Sep 14-Sep 17-Sep 22-Sep 27-Sep STONE and YOUNGBERG PORTFOLIO STRATEGY GROUP Page 4 of 9
5 PSG Chart Perspective AGENCY BULLET SPREADS 9/27/21 AGENCY BULLET SPREADS 5 Yr and 1 Yr MATURITIES WEEKLY 5 YR AGY SPREAD - END OF WEEK WEEKLY 1 YR AGY SPREAD - END OF WEEK END OF WEEK SPREAD 5 Yr AGY vs. 5 Yr UST Average Spread = 27 END OF WEEK SPREAD 1 Yr AGY vs. 1 Yr UST Average Spread = Nov-2 Apr-9 May-7 Jun-4 Jul-2 Jul-3 Nov-2 Apr-9 May-7 Jun-4 Jul-2 Jul-3 DAILY 5 YR AGY SPREAD - Last 21 Trading Days DAILY 1 YR AGY SPREAD - Last 21 Trading Days DAILY SPREAD 5 Yr AGY vs. 5 Yr UST Average Spread = 25 DAILY SPREAD 1 Yr AGY vs. 1 Yr UST Average Spread = /27 9/2 9/8 9/14 9/2 9/ /27 9/2 9/8 9/14 9/2 9/24 SPREAD: 5 YEAR AGENCY vs UST SPREAD: 1 YEAR AGENCY vs UST End of Week DAILY End of Week DAILY 27 9/ /24 25 Sep /23 26 Sep /23 27 Sep /22 28 Sep /22 28 Sep /21 27 Sep / / /2 28 Aug /17 25 Aug /17 28 Aug /16 26 Aug /16 29 Aug-6 2 9/15 26 Aug-6 2 9/15 29 Jul /14 25 Jul /14 28 Jul /13 25 Jul /13 28 Jul /1 24 Jul /1 28 Jul /9 26 Jul /9 3 Jul-2 2 9/8 25 Jul /8 3 STONE and YOUNGBERG PORTFOLIO STRATEGY GROUP Page 5 of 9
6 PSG Chart Perspective CORPORATE SPREADS 9/27/21 MOODY'S CORPORATE AA & BAA RATED INDICES SPREADS 3 Yr Maturity SPREAD WEEKLY 3 YR MOODY'S AA-Rated Index vs 3 Yr UST SPREAD WEEKLY 3 YR MOODY'S BAA-Rated vs 3 Yr UST END OF WEEK SPREAD 3 Yr Moody's AA-Rated CORP vs 3 Yr UST Average Spread = 99 END OF WEEK SPREAD 3 Yr Moody's BAA-Rated CORP vs 3 Yr UST Average Spread = Nov-2 Apr-9 May-7 Jun-4 Jul-2 Jul-3 Nov-2 Apr-9 May-7 Jun-4 Jul-2 Jul-3 DAILY 3 Yr MOODY'S AA-Rated Index SPREAD - 21 Trading Days DAILY 3 Yr MOODY'S BAA-Rated Index SPREAD - 21 Trading Days DAILY SPREAD 3 Yr Moody's AA-Rated CORP vs. 3 Yr UST Average Spread = 94 DAILY SPREAD 3 Yr Moody's BAA-Rated CORP vs. 3 Yr UST Average Spread = /25 8/31 9/7 9/13 9/17 9/ /25 8/31 9/7 9/13 9/17 9/23 SPREAD: 3 YEAR MOODY'S AA-Rated Corporate vs UST SPREAD: 3 YEAR MOODY'S BAA-Rated Corporate vs UST DAILY YIELD SPREAD DAILY YIELD SPREAD 9/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / STONE and YOUNGBERG PORTFOLIO STRATEGY GROUP Page 6 of 9
7 PSG Chart Perspective CALIFORNIA GO SPREADS 9/27/21 MOODY'S AAA MUNI INDEX vs. UST SPREADS 1 Yr & 2 Yr Maturities WEEKLY 1 Yr Moody's AAA & 1 Yr UST - End of Week Trend WEEKLY 2 Yr Moody's AAA & 2 Yr CMT - End of Week Trend WEEKLY 1 Yr Moody's AAA Muni & 1 Yr UST WEEKLY 2 Yr Moody's AAA Muni & 2 Yr CMT 1 Year Moody's AAA Muni 1 Year Treasury 2 Year Moody's AAA Muni 2 Year CMT Yield Yield Nov-2 Apr-9 May-7 Jun-4 Jul-2 Jul-3 SPREAD - WEEKLY 1 Yr Moody's AAA Muni vs 1 Yr UST SPREAD - WEEKLY 2 Yr Moody's AAA vs 2 Yr CMT SPREAD 1 Yr Moody's AAA vs. 1 Yr UST Average Spread = Nov-2 Apr-9 May-7 Jun-4 Jul-2 Jul-3 Nov-2 Apr-9 May-7 Jun-4 Jul-2 Jul-3 SPREAD 2 Yr Moody's AAA Muni vs. 2 Yr CMT Average Spread = SPREAD IN BPS Nov-2 Apr-9 SPREAD IN BPS May-7 Jun-4 Jul-2 Jul-3 SPREAD: 1 YEAR CA GO vs UST SPREAD: 3 YEAR CA GO vs UST Weekly Yield Spread Weekly Yield Spread Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul STONE and YOUNGBERG PORTFOLIO STRATEGY GROUP Page 7 of 9
8 PSG Chart Perspective ECONOMIC STATISTICS 9/27/ REAL GDP Q-Q - Quarterly % Change 6 Year History Average = Monthly CPI YOY ALL ITEMS & CORE CPI All Items CPI Core QTR4 4 QTR2 5 QTR2 6 QTR2 7 QTR2 8 QTR2 9 QTR Sep-7 Feb-8 Jul-8 Dec-8 May-9 Oct-9 Mar-1 Aug-1 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE % - Monthly (Revised) Last 36 Months NON FARM PAYROLLCHAGE (Revised) Monthly = bar 3 Month Moving Avg. = line Sep-7 Feb-8 Jul-8 Dec-8 May-9 Oct-9 Mar-1 Aug-1-8 Feb-8 Jul-8 Dec-8 May-9 Oct-9 Mar-1 Aug-1 HOUSING STARTS & BUILDING PERMITS Monthly Trends Housing starts Building Permits. TRADE BALANCE $ billion - Monthly Last 36 Months Sep-7 Feb-8 Jul-8 Dec-8 May-9 Oct-9 Mar-1 Aug Aug-7 Jan-8 Jun-8 Nov-8 Apr-9 Sep-9 Feb-1 Jul-1 STONE and YOUNGBERG PORTFOLIO STRATEGY GROUP Page 8 of 9
9 PSG Chart Perspective ECONOMIC STATISTICS II 9/27/21 PCE Deflator (% Change - YoY) Monthly Non-Farm Productivity (% Change - QoQ) Jul-8 Nov-8 Mar-9 Jul-9 Nov-9 Mar-1 Jul-1-2. QTR2 7 QTR4 7 QTR2 8 QTR4 8 QTR2 9 QTR4 9 QTR2 1 US Personal Consumption (% Change - QoQ) $8 Fed Consumer Credit Total Net Change (MoM - In Billions) 1.8 $ $4 $2 $ $2 -$4 -$6 -$ $1 -$12 -$ $ $18 -$2 -$ QTR2 7 QTR4 7 QTR2 8 QTR4 8 QTR2 9 QTR4 9 QTR2 1 -$24 Jul-8 Nov-8 Mar-9 Jul-9 Nov-9 Mar-1 Jul US Personal Income (% Change - MoM) 1.3 US Personal Spending (% Change - MoM) Jul-8 Nov-8 Mar-9 Jul-9 Nov-9 Mar-1 Jul Jul-8 Nov-8 Mar-9 Jul-9 Nov-9 Mar-1 Jul-1 STONE and YOUNGBERG PORTFOLIO STRATEGY GROUP Page 9 of 9
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