Flash War! AUTONOMOUS WEAPONS AND STRATEGIC STABILITY! Paul Scharre! Director, 20YY Future of Warfare Initiative!
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1 Flash War! AUTONOMOUS WEAPONS AND STRATEGIC STABILITY! Paul Scharre! Director, 20YY Future of Warfare Initiative!
2 Do Autonomous Weapons Pose Unique Challenges for Strategic Stability?! Lethal autonomous weapon systems (LAWS) are potential future weapons that would select and engage targets on their own! Discussions on LAWS to date have generally focused on legal, ethical, or moral issues! Strategic stability is an important consideration for new weapons and should be considered! 2!
3 Strategic Stability! Strategic stability is a broad overarching concept that encompasses many ideas! Developed in the 1950s with regard to nuclear weapons! Stable vs. unstable equilibrium! Stable equilibrium: when perturbed, returns to the equilibrium Unstable equilibrium: when perturbed, collapses to a new equilibrium Thus, instability is a condition when perturbations can naturally generate momentum towards war! Stability is a condition when peace is resilient against perturbations.! 3!
4 Different Kinds of Stability/Instability! First-strike stability Actors do not have an incentive to strike first. First strike instability could stem from vulnerable weapons postures, where weapons could be destroyed in a disarming first strike. Solution is resilient weapons postures.! Crisis stability / escalation control Actors does not have an incentive to rapidly escalate a conflict. A condition of fragile stability would be one where, if conflict seems imminent, both sides have an incentive to rapidly escalate (example: World War I).! Arms race stability Actors do not have an incentive to race ahead in weapons development.! 4!
5 Crisis Stability and Escalation Control! Periods of heightened tension between military powers often exist (sometimes for extended periods of time) where nations engage in military and diplomatic brinkmanship and escalation short of outright war! Brinkmanship intended to convey willingness to take risks in order to achieve aims, but without initiating war! Countries may attempt to escalate/de-escalate crises in an attempt to achieve their aims at the lowest cost! Some element of miscalculation and accidents are inevitable in these situations! Escalation control is about the ability for countries to manage escalation/de-escalation deliberately! 5!
6 Causes of Escalation in a Conflict! Deliberate escalation Conscious escalation by a nation s leaders based on strategic reality! Can be driven by perverse incentives, such as firststrike instability Automatic (or near-automatic) escalation Can stem from automatic responses such as a dead hand system; doctrine, such as launch on warning; or delegation of authority to subordinates! Accidental / inadvertent escalation Numerous Cold War incidents point to this challenge! 6!
7 Seeking Stability! It is in everyone s interest to avoid a situation of fragile stability where perturbations, accidents, brinkmanship, or miscalculation could rapidly lead to inadvertent escalation and/or outright war! In a stable situation, war would only come about because one party truly sought it, not because of miscalculation! Yet fundamental tension in the concept of strategic stability. Too much stability can undermine deterrence! Adversary may not believe you would be willing to bear the cost of war! Value in the the threat that leaves something to chance! How loose is the rock on the slippery slope?! 7!
8 Autonomous Weapons and Strategic Stability! How do autonomous weapons affect strategic stability?! On the one hand, automaticity can improve deterrence if one can credibly convince an adversary one has tied one s hands in advance and a response is guaranteed! Adversary dissuaded from attack, improving stability On the other hand, instability increases if:! The adversary doesn t believe you and attacks anyway The system automatically reacts to false positive data and responds when it shouldn t have You would actually rather not carry out your threat, but you actually have tied your hands effectively 8!
9 1983 Soviet Nuclear Incident! September 26, 1983: Soviet Oko early warning satellite system detects five U.S. nuclear intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) launched at the Soviet Union! Soviet watch officer Lieutenant Colonel Stanislav Petrov believes U.S. launching only five missiles in a first strike doesn t make sense! Incomplete information and compressed time to make a decision Petrov decides to go with his gut and reports that the system is malfunctioning Petrov was right: Soviet satellites were falsely detecting sunlight reflecting off cloud tops as ICBM launches! What would a machine have done? Whatever it was programmed to do! 9!
10 2010 Wall Street Flash Crash! May 6, 2010: Dow Jones experiences flash crash, losing 10% of its value in a matter of minutes! Cause of flash crash are complex and multi-causal:! Unintended interactions between autonomous trading algorithms Human error Deliberate behavioral hacking of trading algorithms Problem exacerbated by high-speed trading! Solution: regulators install circuit breakers to halt trading if stock price drops too quickly! Could unintended interactions between LAWS cause a flash war? No referee in war to call timeout in a crisis! 10!
11 Could Autonomy/Automation Undermine Stability?! Automation could undermine stability by:! Inadvertent escalation due to unintended interactions with environment, enemy forces, or between autonomous systems (flash war) Fragile instability if accelerated tempo of war requires striking first Undesired automatic escalation where human does not have the ability to apply judgment to specific context, preventing a deliberate choice about escalation Deterrence fails adversary not convinced! Context changes tied hands too effectively Projection bias fail to accurately estimate future preferences 11!
12 Could Autonomy/Automaton Improve Stability?! Automation could improve stability by:! Helping humans to process information faster and buying more time for human decision-makers Automatic defenses, tilting offense-defense balance away from incentives to strike first Credibly tying decision-makers hands in their response to aggression, improving deterrence 12!
13 Additional Strategic Considerations! LAWS could also pose special challenges for war termination if human controllers lack communications with LAWS and they cannot be recalled in a timely manner! For example, undersea sub-hunting LAWS Issues surrounding speed, automated response, and stability are already arising in cyberspace! Interactions occur at superhuman speeds Concepts like active defense and automated hacking back blur lines between defense and offense 13!
14 Path Forward! Strategic stability should be part of the conversation about LAWS! Some uses of automation might improve stability, such as faster information processing to buy time for decision-makers! Defensive LAWS may similarly improve stability by reducing incentives for attack! Other forms of automation/laws could lead to a condition of fragile stability with risk of unintended escalation! States should work together to better understand risks and develop a common rules of the road to avoid the most dangerous outcomes! A flash war benefits no one! 14!
15 15!
16 Autonomous Weapons and Risk! Essence of autonomy is delegating a task to a machine! 1 st order risk is the machine doesn t do what the user would have wanted it to do in that situation! For LAWS, that could mean engaging when it shouldn t have or not engaging when it should! 2 nd order risks, such as: moral hazard risk stemming from successful use; risk of not using autonomy; or risk from enemy LAWS not considered here! 16!
17 Unintended Lethality! If a LAWS engages a target inappropriately (a target or in a context in which the human user would not have wanted an engagement), result could be unintended lethality! To civilians Accidentally deliberately targeted by the autonomous weapon Collateral damage in excess of what the human user intended To friendly forces (fratricide) To enemy combatants Right target, but wrong place, time, or context for use Intentional use of a LAWS by a human to target civilians isn t unintended lethality, it s a war crime! 17!
18 Why Are Autonomous Weapons Different?! Humans make mistakes. Other machines break. What s different about autonomous weapons?! Autonomous weapons concentrate lethality in the machine s cognitive process! Semi-autonomous weapons that have a human in the loop have to stop and wait for human approval for each engagement. If accidents happen, the human can make adjustments or halt the weapon system for subsequent engagements Autonomous weapons could have multiple inappropriate engagements before the human is able to intervene (or until ammunition is exhausted) 18!
19 Autonomous Weapons and Normal Accidents! No systems are 100% failure proof! Accidents can stem from:! Internal errors, software bugs, and malfunctions Unforeseen interactions within the system Human-machine integration failures Unanticipated interactions with the environment Enemy hacking, spoofing, or behavioral hacking Over a long enough time frame, some failures are inevitable even in very well-designed systems! 19!
20 Complexity and Understandability! Weaknesses and failures are manageable if they can be predicted in advanced! Human users can compensate for known system flaws by changing how the system is used! Unanticipated failures are particularly machine! Complexity and sophistication in autonomous systems is a double-edged sword! Enables more intelligent action by the system But internal cognitive processes of the machine may be less understandable to the human user Human user may have a harder time predicting the system s actions in novel situations Uncertainty in risk estimate for novel situations is high 20!
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