PSYCHOLOGY : JUDGMENT AND DECISION MAKING

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1 PSYCHOLOGY : JUDGMENT AND DECISION MAKING Monday, 1:00-3:30, Muenzinger D156B Instructor Assistant Dr. Leaf Van Boven Jordan Pennefather Muenzinger D343B Muenzinger D365D Office hours: Mon, 10:00-12:00 Office hours: Tue & Wed, 2:30-3:30 Description This course is an introduction to the scientific study of judgment and decision making. How much should I pay for this? Should I take this course? Will the treatment succeed? Which job should I accept? Why did he say that? This course will examine how--and how well--people make such judgments and decisions in everyday life. The core idea is that judgments and decisions are often based on simplifying heuristics rather than more formal and extensive algorithmic processing. Although these "mental shortcuts" typically yield accurate judgments and good decisions, they sometimes produce biased judgments (overestimating the risk of kidnappings and terror attacks), erroneous beliefs (in UFOs and astrology), and bad decisions (unprotected sex and excessive drug use). There are weekly laboratories in addition to lectures and classroom discussions. Students will take part in all aspects of judgment and decisionmaking research including participating in, designing, conducting, analyzing and presenting studies. Objectives, Expectations, and Requirements Objectives. This course has three objectives: (a) To provide students with an understanding of basic processes involved in judgment and decision making; (b) to sharpen students ability to think critically about psychological research; and (c) to enhance students ability to conduct and analyze their own research. Expectations. Students are expected to participate in class discussion. Students are expected to obtain, read and bring to class a copy of the assigned readings, which can be downloaded from the course website. Most of the readings are empirical journal articles. Although students are not expected to understand all of the statistical analyses in the readings, they should grasp the methods and conceptual analyses. The course requires a considerable time commitment. Following University of Colorado guidelines, for each credit hour students should plan to spend three hours of class-related activities (studying, research, writing) per week. Given that the class is a four-credit course, plan to spend 12 hours per week outside of class and laboratory. Requirements. The prerequisites for this course are Introduction to Psychology (PSYC 1001), Social Psychology (PSYC 2606), and Introduction to Statistics (PSYC 3101). Students are expected to have a working knowledge of descriptive statistics such as measures of central tendency (mean, median), variability (standard deviation, standard error), and association (correlation). Students will be expected to use inferential statistics such as t-tests, z-tests, and chi-squares to analyze the results of experiments.

2 Psych 4136: Judgment and Decision Making, p. 2 Grades Examinations. There will be a midterm and a cumulative final examination. Both will be closed-book exams. Students will be provided with a list of study questions one week before the midterm and approximately two weeks before the final. The exams will combine multiple choice, short answer, and essay questions. No make up exams will be given, except in the case of medical emergency or conflict with religious holidays. Assignments. There will be several homework and in-class assignments. Some weeks, there will be homework assignments announced in class for the following week. Other weeks, there will be assignments to be done in class. Lab Reports. There will be two lab reports written with a lab partner. Each report will describe the hypotheses under investigation, the methods, data analysis, and conclusions. Research Project. Students will form lab groups of four to five people. Each group will design and conduct an experiment to test a hypothesis regarding judgment and decision-making. The research will be presented in a poster format during undergraduate research day (26 April, 3:00-5:00), presented orally during the last class meeting, and written up in a final paper. Groups must discuss and have their project approved by the Instructor before conducting research. Participation. Participating in discussions is critical to your learning in this course. Active participation can bump borderline grades. Final Grades. Students earn points according to the following distribution: Assignments: 50 Lab reports: 100 (50 each) Midterm exam: 100 Research project: 125 Final exam: 125 TOTAL 500 Final grades in the course will be based on students points in comparison with a reference score, defined as the top 5% of the class. The use of a reference score means that fellow students set performance standards. Grades will be assigned as follows: A > 95% of the reference score A > 90% of the reference score B+ > 87% of the reference score B > 84% of the reference score B > 80% of the reference score C+ > 77% of the reference score C > 74% of the reference score C > 70% of the reference score D+ > 67% of the reference score D > 64% of the reference score D > 60% of the reference score F < 60% of the reference score

3 Psych 4136: Judgment and Decision Making, p. 3 LECTURE CALENDAR AND READINGS I. Introduction and Overview Jan 23, Course overview Gilovich, T., & Griffin, D. (2002). Heuristics and biases: Then and now. In T. Gilovich, D. Griffin, and D. Kahneman (Eds.), Heuristics and biases: The psychology of intuitive judgment (pp. 1-18). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Homework: statistics review assignment, due beginning of class Jan 30. Student survey: to be completed and turned in beginning of class Jan 30 Jan 30, Normative decision analysis Harvard Business School case : Mrs. Brown. Hastie, R., & Dawes, R. M. (2001). Rational choice in an uncertain world: The psychology of judgment and decision making. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications. (Chapter 2 What is decision making? pp ) Feb 6, Rationality, non-conscious processes, and two systems of reasoning Shafir, E., & LeBoeuf, R. A. (2002). Rationality. Annual Review of Psychology, 53, Strahan, E. J., Spencer, S. J., & Zanna, M. P. (2002). Subliminal priming and persuasion: Striking while the iron is hot. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 38, II. Judgmental Heuristics Feb 13, Availability and representativeness Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1982). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.), Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 3-20). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. (Originally in Science, 1974, 185, ) Gilovich, T., Vallone, R., & Tversky, A. (1985). The hot hand in basketball: On the misperception of random sequences. Cognitive Psychology, 17, Feb 20, Anchoring and adjustment Epley, N., & Gilovich, T. (2001). Putting adjustment back in the anchoring and adjustment heuristic: Differential processing of self-generated and experimenter provided anchors. Psychological Science, 12,

4 Psych 4136: Judgment and Decision Making, p. 4 Wansink, B., Kent, R. J., & Hoch, S. J. (1998). An anchoring and adjustment model of purchase quantity decisions. Journal of Consumer Research, 35, Feb 27, Emotion and motivated reasoning Dawson, E., Gilovich, T., Regan, D. T. (2002). Motivated reasoning and performance on the Wason selection task. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 28, Slovic, P., Finucane, M., Peters, E., & MacGregor, D. G. (2002). The affect heuristic. In T. Gilovich, D. Griffin, and D. Kahneman (Eds.), Heuristics and biases: The psychology of intuitive judgment (pp ). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Mar 6, Prediction and confidence Schkade, D. A., & Kahneman, D. (1998). Does living in California make people happy? A focusing illusion in judgments of life satisfaction. Psychological Science, 9, Griffin, A., & Tversky, A. The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence. (2002). In T. Gilovich, D. Griffin, and D. Kahneman (Eds.), Heuristics and biases: The psychology of intuitive judgment (pp ). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Mar 13, Midterm examination, in class III. Choices, Values, and Frames Mar 20, Prospect Theory Kahneman, D. & Tversky A. (1984). Choices, values, and frames. American Psychologist, 39, Knetsch, J. L. (1989). The endowment effect and evidence of nonreversible indifference curves. The American Economic Review, 79, Mar 27, Spring Break, no class Apr 3, Risk and uncertainty Slovic, P. (1987). Perception of risk. Science, 236, Rottenstreich, Y., & Hsee, C. K. (2001). Money, kisses, and electric shocks: On the affective psychology of risk. Psychological Science, 12, Apr 10, Constructed preference and reason based choice Tversky, A., Sattath, S., & Slovic, P. Contingent weighting in judgment and choice. In D. Kahneman and A. Tversky (Eds.), Choices, values, and frames (pp ). Cambridge University Press.

5 Psych 4136: Judgment and Decision Making, p. 5 Shafir, E., Simonson, I., & Tversky, A. (2000). Reason based choice. In D. Kahneman and A. Tversky (Eds.), Choices, values, and frames (pp ). Cambridge University Press. IV. Applications Apr 17, Conflict and negotiation Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (2000). Conflict resolution: A cognitive perspective. In D. Kahneman and A. Tversky (Eds.), Choices, values, and frames (pp ). Cambridge University Press. Thompson, L., & Hastie, R. (1990). Social perception in negotiation. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 47, Apr 24, Counterfactual thinking, regret, and happiness Gilovich, T., & Medvec, V. H. (1994). The temporal pattern to the experience of regret. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 67, Van Boven, L., & Gilovich, T. (2003). To do or to have? That is the question. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 85, V. Research presentations May 1, Research Presentations FINAL EXAMINATION: 4:30-7:00, Tue May 9, 2005, Muenzinger D156

6 Psych 4136: Judgment and Decision Making, p. 6 LAB CALENDAR Section : Tuesday, 3:30 5:20, Muenzinger D156 Section : Wednesday, 3:30 5:20, Muenzinger D156 Date Jan 17 & 18 Jan 24 & 25 Jan 31 & Feb 1 Feb 7 & 8 Feb 14 & 15 Feb 21 & 22 Feb 28 & Mar 1 Mar 7 & 8 Mar 14 & 15 Mar 21 & 22 Mar 28 & 29 Apr 4 & 5 Apr 11 & 12 Apr 18 & 19 Apr 25 & 26 Topic Stats & method review Aronson, E., Wilson, T. D., & Brewer, M. B. (1998). Experimentation in social psychology. In D. T. Gilbert, S. T. Fiske, & G. Lindzey (Eds.), Handbook of social psychology (Vol. 1, pp ). Boston, MA: McGraw-Hill. Study 1 data collection Study 1 data analysis Study 1 write up Study 2 data preparation/collection Study 2 data collection/analysis Study 2 data analysis/write up Spring break, no lab April 26, 3:00-5:00 Undergraduate research day presentation May 2 & 3 FINAL PAPERS DUE: Friday, May 5, 5:00