GPP 501 Microeconomic Analysis for Public Policy Fall 2017
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1 GPP 501 Microeconomic Analysis for Public Policy Fall 2017 Given by Kevin Milligan Vancouver School of Economics University of British Columbia Lecture Sept 6th: Consumer Choice GPP501: Lecture Sept 6 1 of 29
2 Agenda for today: 1. How economists think about choice. 2. Behavioural challenges to the standard model. GPP501: Lecture Sept 6 2 of 29
3 How do humans make choices? Q: What factors are considered? Q: What do you think? GPP501: Lecture Sept 6 3 of 29
4 The economics approach Start with a basic model you may find it falls far short of reality as you see it! See how far the basic model can take us. Then assess what happens when assumptions of the model fail. GPP501: Lecture Sept 6 4 of 29
5 Friedman (1953): The Methodology of Positive Economics Judge models on: Predictive success Parsimony / simplicity Do not judge models on: Realism of assumptions Assess additions to the basic model by their marginal explanatory power compared to their marginal cost of complexity. GPP501: Lecture Sept 6 5 of 29
6 Positive vs Normative Economics This is a key distinction in economic methodology: Positive: What is Normative: What should be Question: How clean do you think this distinction is? GPP501: Lecture Sept 6 6 of 29
7 What is the economic model of choice? Assume we follow some axioms: o What is an axiom? GPP501: Lecture Sept 6 7 of 29
8 What is the economic model of choice? Economists use a model of choice built up from some axioms: o What is an axiom? Dictionary.com: 1. a self-evident truth that requires no proof. 2. a universally accepted principle or rule. 3. Logic, Mathematics. a proposition that is assumed without proof for the sake of studying the consequences that follow from it. Economists surely use axioms as (3). But sometimes we are accused of (1) and (2). (And maybe sometimes the accusers are correct!) We need to start at the ground level with the axioms to understand how economics works. GPP501: Lecture Sept 6 8 of 29
9 The axioms of choice: (1) Completeness Can we rank all alternatives? Which do you like better? 1 apple or 1 orange 3 apples or 5 oranges 2 apples or 3 oranges or 1 banana or 10 shoelaces In the extreme, what problem arises for this axiom? But, in the spirit of Friedman (1953), let s just assume you can and see how far that gets us. GPP501: Lecture Sept 6 9 of 29
10 The axioms of choice: (2) Transitivity Can we make inferences across different rankings? If I like. apples more than oranges and oranges more than bananas What can we say about my ranking of apples and bananas? If transitivity holds, then we can infer that I like apples more than bananas. Can you think of situations where this doesn t hold? GPP501: Lecture Sept 6 10 of 29
11 The axioms of choice: (3) Reflexivity This just means that any choice is at least as good as itself. If I like apples at least as much as I like apples. This one seems a little obvious; but it s logically necessary to get where we re going. GPP501: Lecture Sept 6 11 of 29
12 Rationality If your choices satisfy these three axioms, economists say that people are rational. What do you understand as rational? Are humans rational? If humans aren t rational, what is the use of making this assumption? GPP501: Lecture Sept 6 12 of 29
13 Agenda for today: 1. How economists think about choice. 2. Behavioural challenges to the standard model. Behavioural economics: Definitions Empirical example Policy example GPP501: Lecture Sept 6 13 of 29
14 Modern challenge: Behavioural Economics Since the late 1990s, economists have opened up the way we think about choice to new ideas from psychology and other disciplines. Definition: Behavioural economics encompasses deviations from the standard rational model. That s a broad and odd definition! GPP501: Lecture Sept 6 14 of 29
15 Examples of behavioural economics decision making: Bounded rationality: Challenges the completeness axiom Leads people to develop mental shortcuts Framing; context-specificity: Challenges transitivity; maybe reflexivity axioms. Choice depends on how/when/context presented Loss aversion; anchoring; salience; endowment effect etc. See Rabin (1998) for an early survey. Matthew Rabin, Psychology and Economics, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 35, No. 1 (March 1998), pp GPP501: Lecture Sept 6 15 of 29
16 Many economists were resistant. Some of the objections It can t be true because axioms violated! Lab experiments don t count! If you can t write down the theory I won t believe it. It s just rounding errors; it doesn t matter. GPP501: Lecture Sept 6 16 of 29
17 Empirical example: Madrian and Shea (2001) Paper studies employees decisions to join a firm s pension plan. What matters for this decision in the standard economic model? What behavioural economic factors might matter? Brigitte C. Madrian; Dennis F. Shea The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 116, No. 4. (Nov., 2001), pp GPP501: Lecture Sept 6 17 of 29
18 Empirical example: Madrian and Shea (2001) Situation: Fortune 500 company; health care/insurance industry; operates in 38 states. Big. Company has a 401(k) plan. (What s that?) Could contribute up to 15% of salary; first 6 percent received 50% employer match. Own contributions vested immediately; firm s match vested after 2 years. Loans / Hardship withdrawals allowed in special cases. To enroll: (1) authorize payroll deduction (2) select a contribution rate (3) allocate investments to selection of up to 9 funds. Plan changed on April 1, Prior: eligible only if tenure>1 year; had to choose to enroll. Post: immediate eligibility; auto-enrollment. Effectively defines three groups. OLD: hired before the change. WINDOW: Freshly hired; worked under a year before April 1, NEW: Hired after the change. GPP501: Lecture Sept 6 18 of 29
19 GPP501: Lecture Sept 6 19 of 29
20 Empirical example: Madrian and Shea (2001) Q: What does standard economic model predict? Q: What behavioural factors might matter here? Q: What is your guess for the impact of immediate eligibility? Q: What is your guess for the impact of default enrollment? GPP501: Lecture Sept 6 20 of 29
21 GPP501: Lecture Sept 6
22 GPP501: Lecture Sept 6 22 of 29
23 GPP501: Lecture Sept 6 23 of 29
24 GPP501: Lecture Sept 6 24 of 29
25 GPP501: Lecture Sept 6 25 of 29
26 Empirical example: Madrian and Shea (2001) Q: What do you think is driving the results? Q: Is there any standard model explanation? Q: What lies behind procrastination? Laziness? Cognitive biases? How good are you at this? Translation: Tomorrow, tomorrow, but not today, say all the lazy people. GPP501: Lecture Sept 6 26 of 29
27 Why Madrian and Shea (2001) matters: Pensions policy: We used to worry a lot about the tax rate on savings, or match rate on pension plans. Those impacts are swamped by a simple change to the default option. Broader policy: Choice architecture matters. A lot. Changing behaviour can actually be cheap. Economic theory: Gave big boost to theorists trying to work behavioural mechanisms into economic models. GPP501: Lecture Sept 6 27 of 29
28 Kevin s policy corner: Time permitting, I have some stories. Registered Education Savings Plan. Working Income Tax Benefit. GPP501: Lecture Sept 6 28 of 29
29 For next time We will build on our framework with choice to understand what economists call demand. We will then move on to producers/supply. GPP501: Lecture Sept 6 29 of 29
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![Biases and [Ir]rationality Informatics 1 CG: Lecture 18](/thumbs/89/98913193.jpg "Biases and [Ir]rationality Informatics 1 CG: Lecture 18")
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