Strategic Decision Making
|
|
- Madison Cooper
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Strategic Decision Making Making better decisions BCHFP Conference 28 September 2017 Professor Michael Parent Our Goals This Afternoon 1. To understand individual and group decision making processes in greater depth. 2. To understand the main biases that affect us all when making strategic decisions. 3. To learn about mitigating and coping strategies. Professor Michael Parent 1
2 2017 BCFHPS Annual Conference Vancouver BC September 28, 2017 Strategic planning (and execution) is the process of making decisions about the allocation of scarce resources. Let s Explore the Sources Competitive Advantage Value Activities Resources/ Capabilities Professor Michael Parent 2
3 Rationality Managers make consistent, value-maximizing choices with specific constraints. Rationality assumes that decision-makers: Are perfectly rational, fully objective, and logical Have carefully defined the problem and identified all possible alternatives Have a clear and specific goal Will select the alternative that maximizes outcomes in the organization s interests rather than in their personal interests. Cognitive Limitations Human decision makers can retain only a few bits of information in short-term memory 7 plus or minus 2 Propensity for risk may limit the amount of information needed to arrive at a decision risk takers may require less information than risk avoiders Those who think in concrete rather than abstract terms tend to be somewhat limited in their ability to process information inside versus outside the box Professor Michael Parent 3
4 Bounded Rationality Problem Space Simon refers to this as satisficing What is intuition? Managers make decisions based on their past experiences Managers make decisions based on cultural values Experience-based Decisions Managers make decisions based on feelings or emotions Value-based Decisions Affect-based Decisions Intuition Subconscious Mental Processing Cognitive-based Decisions Managers use data from their subconscious to help them make decisions Managers make decisions based on skills, knowledge, and training Professor Michael Parent 4
5 Our two systems of thinking System 1 (Thinking Fast) Operates automatically and quickly, with little or no effort and no sense of voluntary control Example: =? System 2 (Thinking Slow) Allocates attention to the effortful mental activities that need attention Example: 17 x 22 =? Common Decision-Making Errors & Biases Status Quo Overconfidence Anchoring Self-Serving Immediate Gratification Sunk Costs Decision-Making Errors & Biases Selective Perception Randomness Confirmation Representation Availability Framing Professor Michael Parent 5
6 Top 6 Most Common Decision-Making Errors & Biases Status Quo Overconfidence Anchoring Decision-Making Errors & Biases Representation Availability Framing Anchoring Trap When considering a decision, the mind gives disproportionate weight to information already received Be open minded, think about the problem from many different perspectives Be careful not to anchor to your colleagues or advisors Professor Michael Parent 6
7 Status Quo Decisions Which would you rather do? Win $800 for sure Accept an 85% chance of winning $1000 and a 15% chance of wining $0 Professor Michael Parent 7
8 Decisions Which would you rather do? Pay an $800 fine for sure Take an 85% chance of paying $1000 and a 15% chance of paying $0 Prospect Theory Value of outcome Losses - + Gains Professor Michael Parent 8
9 Question There are 600 people in a town that have been infected by a certain virus. There are two competing programs, of which one has to be selected. If Program A is adopted, 200 people will be saved If Program B is adopted, there is a one-third probability that 600 people will be saved and a two-thirds probability that no people will be saved Which of the two programs would you favor? Same Question? There are 600 people in a town that have been infected by a certain virus. There are two competing programs, of which one has to be selected. If Program C is adopted, 400 people will die If Program D is adopted, there is a one-third probability that nobody will die and a two-thirds probability that 600 people will die Which of the two programs would you favor? Professor Michael Parent 9
10 Framing Effects The two sets of choices are objectively identical. Changing the description of outcomes from lives saved to lives lost is sometimes sufficient to shift prototypic choice from risk-averse to riskseeking behavior. Availability In four pages of a novel (about 2,000) words), how many words would you expect to find that have the form _ n _ (7-letter words that have n in the 6 th position)? Professor Michael Parent 10
11 Availability Example 2 In four pages of a novel (about 2,000) words), how many words would you expect to find that have the form i n g (7-letter words that end with ing )? Retrievability Did you respond with higher number for Problem 2a than for 2b? Retrievability of 7-letter words ending with ing apparently easier than 7-letter words with n as the 6 th letter. Professor Michael Parent 11
12 Availability Heuristic What is readily available in memory influences the people s judgments. A person s choice may be influenced by: Their closeness (in time or space) Vividness of their experience in dealing with the situation People tend to make judgments using retrievability of information. Can you read this? Aoccdrnig to a rscheearch at Cmabrigde Uinervtisy, it deosn't mttaer in waht oredr the ltteers in a wrod are, the olny iprmoetnt tihng is taht the frist and lsat ltteer be at the rghit pclae. The rset can be a toatl mses and you can sitll raed it wouthit porbelm. Tihs is bcuseae the huamn mnid deos not raed ervey lteter by istlef, but the wrod as a wlohe. Professor Michael Parent 12
13 The next one has got to be a winner! You are at the Roulette table and a Red number has come up 9 times in a row. You put all of your chips on Black because on average it has a higher likelihood of coming up next. This thinking is: (a) Correct (b) Incorrect Representation What this Means The performance of the tenth stock is independent of the performance of the first nine. The Gamblers Fallacy - We have an inappropriate tendency to assume that random and non-random events will balance out they don t! After holding bad cards on ten hands of poker, the player believes she is due for a good hand. After winning $1,000 on the BC Lottery, a woman changes her regular number (after all, how likely is it that that number will come up twice.) A gambler will wait to play a slot machine that someone has put a lot of money into without any big payouts Professor Michael Parent 13
14 Overconfidence Bias Decision-makers generally ascribe more credibility to data than is warranted and hence overestimate the probability of success merely due to the presence of an abundance of data Predictive accuracy reaches a ceiling at an early point in an information gathering process and confidence in decisions continues to climb as more and more information is obtained This bias is most extreme in tasks of great difficulty Consequentially, Overconfident managers stop gathering and processing information about an issue sooner Preempts the collection of disconfirming evidence Reduces analysis of data and discourages the examination of alternative ideas and solutions Other Traps Sunk Cost Most people have a tendency to throw good money after bad Confirming Evidence Most people seek out evidence to support their existing thoughts Present vs Future Present concerns tend to have more weighting Endowment Effect we value those things we are more involved with more highly Professor Michael Parent 14
15 The Four Mental Functions People who prefer ST Sensing and Thinking/Objective SF Sensing and Feeling/Relative NF Intuition and Feeling/Relative NT Intuition and Thinking/Objective Focus attention on Facts Facts Possibilities Possibilities And handle these with They tend to become And find scope for their abilities in Non personal Analysis Practical and matter of fact Technical areas with facts and objects Personal warmth Personal warmth Non personal Analysis Sympathetic and friendly Practical help and services for people Enthusiastic and insightful Understanding and communication with people Logical and ingenious Theoretical and technical developments What your Personality Type says about Decision Making How do you make good individual decisions? Don t just do something, stand there. Professor Michael Parent 15
16 The Importance of Setting Goals First Groupthink is a mode of thinking that people engage in when they are deeply involved in a cohesive in-group, when the members striving for unanimity overrides their motivation to realistically appraise alternative courses of action Professor Michael Parent 16
17 Why does Groupthink happen? Team members want to get along above all else Critical information is withheld because individual members censor themselves Ideas often accepted without careful consideration of the pros and cons Pressure to not consider alternative view points Maintain togetherness by protecting the team from outside information Diffusion of responsibility How to recognize groupthink The First Step in Avoiding it! Options rejected during discussion are never brought up again Information that might challenge the team s thinking is not actively sought Different perspectives offered are often quickly dismissed No alternatives offered When positions presented (especially by leader), people focus on why it is right Professor Michael Parent 17
18 Factors giving rise to groupthink Rationalization Direct pressure Illusions of invulnerability Belief in inherent group morality Isolationism Self-censorship The symptoms of groupthink 1. Incomplete surveying of alternatives The group fails to seek out all of its possible alternatives. The group picks one idea and goes with it, paying no attention to substitute ideas. 2. Incomplete surveying of objectives The group never takes into consideration all of the possible objectives they have to choose from. This could cause the best objective not to be chosen. 3. Failure to examine major costs and risks of the preferred choice. The group overlooks possible negative outcomes when other alternatives were available. Professor Michael Parent 18
19 The symptoms of groupthink 4. Poor information search The group fails to seek out all the possible information needed to make an effective decision. An incomplete information search could either be done improperly or incompletely. 5. Selective bias in processing information at hand. The group demonstrates a tendency to choose from certain information; excluding other valuable pieces of information. 6. Failure to reconsider originally rejected alternatives. The group fails to review previously rejected alternatives, ignoring possible positive alternatives. 7. Failure to work out detailed implementation, monitoring, and contingency plans. The group fails to make contingency plans, ignoring possible future problems. Another scenario is the group ineffectively creates contingency plans. How to avoid groupthink Promote an open climate. Avoid isolation of the group. Invite outsiders in when making decisions. Engage in critical evaluation. Appoint a rotating Devil s Advocate Conduct a pre-mortem Allow true dialogue without undue influence from the leader. Sometimes, even, the leader could not be in the room when critical issues are first discussed. Professor Michael Parent 19
20 Reference Class Forecasting (RCF) (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979) Key Take-Aways Today: 1. Pay attention to the decision frame re-frame if necessary 2. Base decisions on evidence and make sure you consider ALL the evidence you need confirmatory & disconfirmatory Are your displays of evidence clear? compelling? Don t take a straw poll it commits people to positions As a leader, avoid statements about your preferred alternative Use devil s advocacy and pre-mortems Promote the use of RCF for critical resource-allocation decisions 3. Be consciously aware of the bias(es) that might be influencing you. Professor Michael Parent 20
21 Selected Bibliography all of these books were NY Times Bestsellers and offer more detail on the incredible science behind decision making. Daniel Kahneman (2011). Thinking, Fast and Slow. An epic book summarizing a lifetime s research, and expanding on Systems 1 and 2. A bit technical and dense at times, but very readable. Richard Thaler & Cass Sunstein (2009). Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth and Happiness. One of the first non-academic books dealing with the new science of behavioral economics. Dan Ariely (2009). Predictably Irrational. The book that details many of the examples Ariely presented in today s videos. Michael Lewis (2016). The Undoing Project: A Friendship That Changed Our Minds. One of the best books of the year! Provides the origin and back stories of Tversky and Kahnneman s incredible lifetime of collaboration. Thank You! Professor Michael Parent 21
UNCONSCIOUS BIAS. It Matters. Presented by Training Evolution, Inc.
UNCONSCIOUS BIAS It Matters Presented by Training Evolution, Inc. Your Objectives 1. Understand the definition of unconscious bias. 2. Understand the different types of unconscious bias. 3. Understand
More informationHUMANITIES 001: CREATIVE MINDS W E E K 4
HUMANITIES 001: CREATIVE MINDS W E E K 4 REVIEW: WHAT IS CREATIVITY? Paper Airplane Exercise Main Problems? Limiting beliefs Limiting behaviors Your were stuck in the usual/ordinary REVIEW: WHAT IS CREATIVITY?
More informationHow do we see the world?
How do we see the world? Sensation and Perception CLASS OBJECTIVES In this chapter we explore sensation and perception, the vital processes by which we connect with and function in the world. What is sensation?
More informationCNS 5037 NEUROPHILOSOPHY OF CONSCIOUSNESS. Day 2 Cognition & The Thinking Brain
CNS 5037 NEUROPHILOSOPHY OF CONSCIOUSNESS Day 2 Cognition & The Thinking Brain Agenda Mindfulness Exercise Introduction: Self-Assessment & Review Context for Today s class: Thinking Brain The Thinking
More informationReorganizing the Perceptional World
Reorganizing the Perceptional World How do we recognize WHAT objects are? Info is analyzed by the brain Brain finds a match from memory (recognition) Placed into a perceptual category Can your brain recognize
More informationA Glimpse into the World of Implicit Bias Research: Understanding the Dynamics of Unconscious Associations
A Glimpse into the World of Implicit Bias Research: Understanding the Dynamics of Unconscious Associations Cheryl Staats Senior Researcher Kirwan Institute for the Study of Race and Ethnicity The Ohio
More informationComputer Vision. Gestalt Theory. Gestaltism. Gestaltism. Computer Science Tripos Part II. Dr Christopher Town. Principles of Gestalt Theory
A B C Computer Vision Computer Science Tripos Part II Dr Christopher Town A B Gestalt Theory D C Gestalt: a meaningful whole or group Whole is greater than the sum of its parts Relationships among parts
More informationProfessionalism: How to Recognize, Understand and Respect Racial, Cultural, Gender, Socioeconomic and Generational Differences
Professionalism: How to Recognize, Understand and Respect Racial, Cultural, Gender, Socioeconomic and Generational Differences I. INTRODUCTION II. III. IV. IDENTIFYING IMPLICIT BIAS WHY DOES IT MATTER?
More informationHuman Perception. Topic Objectives. CS 725/825 Information Visualization Fall Dr. Michele C. Weigle.
CS 725/825 Information Visualization Fall 2013 Human Perception Dr. Michele C. Weigle http://www.cs.odu.edu/~mweigle/cs725-f13/ Topic Objectives! Define perception! Distinguish between rods and cones in
More informationAnnouncements. Exam 2 is a week from Today
Announcements Exam 2 is a week from Today VI. Sleep and Dreams Mini-Mailbag I was wondering why some people have such vivid dreams that they can have difficulty remembering if it actually happened or
More informationAnnouncements. VI. Sleep and Dreams. Mini-Mailbag. Dream remembering 2/26/2014. Exam 2 is a week from Today
Announcements Exam 2 is a week from Today VI. Sleep and Dreams Mini-Mailbag I was wondering why some people have such vivid dreams that they can have difficulty remembering if it actually happened or was
More informationHow do you know someone is asleep? Announcements. VI. Sleep and Dreams. VI. Sleep and Dreams 2/22/2012. Papers. PsychPortal-D2L integration
Announcements Papers Draft due sometime Feb 17 to Mar 9 (lottery) Due FRIDAY 11:55 PM Visit your assigned preceptor PsychPortal-D2L integration Has started, but not finished! Exam 2 is next Wednesday (2/29)
More informationAnnouncements. Papers. PsychPortal-D2L integration. Exam 2 is next Wednesday (2/29) PsychPortal deadlines
Papers Announcements Draft due sometime Feb 17 to Mar 9 (lottery) Due FRIDAY 11:55 PM Visit your assigned preceptor PsychPortal-D2L integration Has started, but not finished! Exam 2 is next Wednesday (2/29)
More informationPolicy Implications of Unexamined Implicit Bias on Student Success
Policy Implications of Unexamined Implicit Bias on Student Success Abbie Robinson-Armstrong, Ph.D., Vice President, Intercultural Affairs Kim Misa, M.A., Research Associate, Intercultural Affairs Steven
More informationShould You Trust Your Gut?
Should You Trust Your Gut? Human psychological weaknesses when making decisions in the face of uncertainty Patrick Leach Copyright 2012 by Decision Strategies 1 Dead Guy in the Envelope 2 A bit of psychology
More informationImplicit Bias & De-biasing Strategies in Action
Implicit Bias & De-biasing Strategies in Action Aliah Mestrovich Seay, LCMFT #855 Extension Specialist - New Youth and Adult Audiences North Dakota State University Extension Fall Conference Fargo, North
More informationMENTAL AND EMOTIONAL PROBLEMS. Mental and Emotional Disorders
MENTAL AND EMOTIONAL PROBLEMS Mental and Emotional Disorders identify types of anxiety disorders. describe mood disorders. identify signs of major depression. MENTAL AND EMOTIONAL DISORDERS Mental and
More informationAre We Rational? Lecture 23
Are We Rational? Lecture 23 1 To Err is Human Alexander Pope, An Essay on Criticism (1711) Categorization Proper Sets vs. Prototypes and Exemplars Judgment and Decision-Making Algorithms vs. Heuristics
More informationARE YOUR STUDENTS HEARING YOU?
HEALTHY AND SAFETY ARE YOUR STUDENTS HEARING YOU? THE IMPORTANCE OF ACOUSTIC TREATMENT IN K-12 SCHOOLS BY JAMES WRIGHT We would never teach reading in a classroom without lights. Why then do then do we
More informationBehavioral Finance 1-1. Chapter 5 Heuristics and Biases
Behavioral Finance 1-1 Chapter 5 Heuristics and Biases 1 Introduction 1-2 This chapter focuses on how people make decisions with limited time and information in a world of uncertainty. Perception and memory
More informationROLE OF HEURISTICS IN RISK MANAGEMENT
ROLE OF HEURISTICS IN RISK MANAGEMENT Kuwait Enterprise Risk Management Conference 4 th Edition, 2017 Abhishek Upadhayay CFPS, MIRM its about time We use heuristics to simplify choices in relation to risk.
More informationSensation and Perception. Created by David Silverman
Sensation and Perception Created by David Silverman Sensation and Perception Sensation- How our sensory receptors and nervous system receive information (stimulus) from the environment Perception- The
More informationMedication Safety. Emory Martin, RPh Asst Executive Director Pharmacy
Medication Safety Emory Martin, RPh Asst Executive Director Pharmacy L A S A Look alike Sound alike Use extra care in handling Avoid Look-A Likes Read With Care 1. When distracted or hurried, you may think
More informationPsychological. Influences on Personal Probability. Chapter 17. Copyright 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Psychological Chapter 17 Influences on Personal Probability Copyright 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc. 17.2 Equivalent Probabilities, Different Decisions Certainty Effect: people
More informationDSM-5 A 02-Language Disorder
DYs UenCY DSM-5 A 02-Language Disorder Persistent difficulties in the acquisition and use of spoken language (sound-, word-, sentence-, and discourse-level comprehension, production, and awareness), written
More informationFEEDBACK TUTORIAL LETTER
FEEDBACK TUTORIAL LETTER 1 ST SEMESTER 2017 ASSIGNMENT 2 ORGANISATIONAL BEHAVIOUR OSB611S 1 Page1 OSB611S - FEEDBACK TUTORIAL LETTER FOR ASSIGNMENT 2-2016 Dear student The purpose of this tutorial letter
More informationAn Understanding of Role of Heuristic on Investment Decisions
International Review of Business and Finance ISSN 0976-5891 Volume 9, Number 1 (2017), pp. 57-61 Research India Publications http://www.ripublication.com An Understanding of Role of Heuristic on Investment
More informationChapter 11 Decision Making. Syllogism. The Logic
Chapter 11 Decision Making Syllogism All men are mortal. (major premise) Socrates is a man. (minor premise) (therefore) Socrates is mortal. (conclusion) The Logic Mortal Socrates Men 1 An Abstract Syllogism
More informationStrategic Decision Making. Steven R. Van Hook, PhD
Strategic Decision Making Steven R. Van Hook, PhD Reference Textbooks Judgment in Managerial Decision Making, 8th Edition, by Max Bazerman and Don Moore. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 2012. ISBN: 1118065700
More informationRepresentativeness heuristics
Representativeness heuristics 1-1 People judge probabilities by the degree to which A is representative of B, that is, by the degree to which A resembles B. A can be sample and B a population, or A can
More informationChemistry. Biology. Neuroscience
Chemistry Biology Anatomy & Physiology Neuroscience Chemistry study of substances q q 92 naturally occurring plus additional elements that are synthetically made Combine to form Compounds Ø Two Categories:
More informationArticle from. Forecasting and Futurism. Month Year July 2015 Issue Number 11
Article from Forecasting and Futurism Month Year July 2015 Issue Number 11 Thinking, Fast and Slow Review by Tyson Mohr As a reader of this newsletter, you ve almost certainly heard of Daniel Kahneman
More informationLinks. Date: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cd29umt yzmk. Basketball:
Links Date: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cd29umt yzmk Basketball: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yrqrkihlw-s Implicit Bias Hazards for Visionary Diversity Leadership in the Dental Profession Uncovering
More informationHere s a list of the Behavioral Economics Principles included in this card deck
Here s a list of the Behavioral Economics Principles included in this card deck Anchoring Action Goals Availability Bias Decision Paralysis Default Bias Disposition Effect Ego Depletion Endowment Effect
More informationTHINKING, FAST AND SLOW by Daniel Kahneman
THINKING, FAST AND SLOW by Daniel Kahneman Thinking, Fast and Slow analyses two modes of thought; system one and system two. It examines emotional thought versus more logical thought and how this is evident
More informationUNIVERSITY OF DUBLIN TRINITY COLLEGE. Faculty of Arts Humanities and Social Sciences. School of Business
UNIVERSITY OF DUBLIN TRINITY COLLEGE Faculty of Arts Humanities and Social Sciences School of Business M.Sc. (Finance) Degree Examination Michaelmas 2011 Behavioural Finance Monday 12 th of December Luce
More informationCOGNITIVE BIAS IN PROFESSIONAL JUDGMENT
COGNITIVE BIAS IN PROFESSIONAL JUDGMENT Dr. Janet L Sutton, PhD Behavioral Economist, Senior Research Psychologist U.S. Department of Defense (retired): -Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL, Wright-Patterson
More informationERGONOMICS FORUM. Gavin McKellar 4
ERGONOMICS FORUM Gavin McKellar 4 Counting Human Factors Human Factors Litson and Associates Human Factors What is Human Factors? Human factors involves the study of all aspects of the way humans relate
More informationReduce Tension by Making the Desired Choice Easier
Daniel Kahneman Talk at Social and Behavioral Sciences Meeting at OEOB Reduce Tension by Making the Desired Choice Easier Here is one of the best theoretical ideas that psychology has to offer developed
More informationChapter 1 Review Questions
Chapter 1 Review Questions 1.1 Why is the standard economic model a good thing, and why is it a bad thing, in trying to understand economic behavior? A good economic model is simple and yet gives useful
More informationBehavioral Biases in Underwriting: Implications for Insurers
Behavioral Biases in Underwriting: Implications for Insurers Jiten Voralia Swiss Re This presentation has been prepared for the Actuaries Institute 2015 ASTIN and AFIR/ERM Colloquium. The Institute Council
More informationOct. 21. Rank the following causes of death in the US from most common to least common:
Oct. 21 Assignment: Read Chapter 17 Try exercises 5, 13, and 18 on pp. 379 380 Rank the following causes of death in the US from most common to least common: Stroke Homicide Your answers may depend on
More informationMedicines Management Programme Update
The Medicines Management Programme (MMP) Medicines Management Programme Update Michael Barry Clinical Lead HSE-Medicines Management Programme (MMP) www.hse.ie/yourmedicines What are our values? Ensuring
More informationNudges: A new instrument for public policy?
Nudges: A new instrument for public policy? M.C. Villeval (CNRS, GATE) - Origin: Behavioral Economics BE blends experimental evidence and psychology in a mathematical theory of strategic behavior (Camerer,
More information4/26/2017. Things to Consider. Making Decisions and Reasoning. How Did I Choose to Get Out of Bed...and Other Hard Choices
How Did I Choose to Get Out of Bed...and Other Hard Choices Judgments, Decision Making, Reasoning Things to Consider What kinds of reasoning traps do people get into when making judgments? What is the
More informationManaging Conflict in Multidisciplinary Teams
Managing Conflict in Multidisciplinary Teams Karl la. Smith Engineering Education Purdue University Technological Leadership Institute/ STEM Education Center/ Civil Engineering - University of Minnesota
More informationLesson 6 Evolution, Emotion, and Reason
Lesson 6 Evolution, Emotion, and Reason Introduction: Connecting Your Learning Lesson 6 introduces you to the genetics of human psychology, reasoning, and emotions. You will begin with a lecture by Dr.
More informationThe Wellbeing Course. Resource: Mental Skills. The Wellbeing Course was written by Professor Nick Titov and Dr Blake Dear
The Wellbeing Course Resource: Mental Skills The Wellbeing Course was written by Professor Nick Titov and Dr Blake Dear About Mental Skills This resource introduces three mental skills which people find
More informationInfinity-Valued Logic. A really powerful way to evaluate, grade, monitor and decide.
A really powerful way to evaluate, grade, monitor and decide. Let s start with single-value logic: Next comes dual-value logic: Then three-value logic: Then four-value logic: Beyond that we can move to
More informationSchool of Psychology. Professor Richard Kemp. Cognitive Bias: Psychology and Forensic Science
School of Psychology Professor Richard Kemp Cognitive Bias: Psychology and Forensic Science Professor Bryan Found Cognitive Bias: Psychology and Forensic Science What is Cognitive Bias and why does it
More informationHealthy Living Chiropractic Newsletter Gateway Chiropractic Center 3519 Gateway Drive, Eau Claire, WI
Healthy Living Chiropractic Newsletter Gateway Chiropractic Center 3519 Gateway Drive, Eau Claire, WI 715-831-0955 www.gatewaytomyhealth.com There are natural ways of seeking wellness. There are natural
More informationThe innate effect of Bias
The innate effect of Bias Overview Research by behavioural economists has clearly demonstrated we are not rational; in fact we are naturally irrational. Deeply embedded biases affect every decision we
More informationBuilding Leaders Worth Following 5 VOICES QUICK START GUIDE. From Steve Cockram & Jeremie Kubicek Authors of 5 Voices Co-Founders, GiANT Worldwide
Building Leaders Worth Following 5 VOICES QUICK START GUIDE From Steve Cockram & Jeremie Kubicek Authors of 5 Voices Co-Founders, GiANT Worldwide 5 LEADERSHIP VOICES QUICK START GUIDE If you ve taken the
More informationReasoning with Uncertainty. Reasoning with Uncertainty. Bayes Rule. Often, we want to reason from observable information to unobservable information
Reasoning with Uncertainty Reasoning with Uncertainty Often, we want to reason from observable information to unobservable information We want to calculate how our prior beliefs change given new available
More informationPositive Psychologists on Positive Psychology: Alex Linley
, A. (2012). Positive Psychologists on Positive Psychology: Alex Linley, International Journal of Wellbeing, 2(2), 83 87. doi:10.5502/ijw.v2i2.4 EXPERT INSIGHT Positive Psychologists on Positive Psychology:
More informationHow to Manage Seemingly Contradictory Facet Results on the MBTI Step II Assessment
How to Manage Seemingly Contradictory Facet Results on the MBTI Step II Assessment CONTENTS 3 Introduction 5 Extraversion with Intimate and Expressive 8 Introversion with Expressive and Receiving 11 Sensing
More informationHow rational are humans? Many important implications hinge. Qu a r t e r ly Jo u r n a l of. Vol. 15 N o Au s t r i a n.
The Qu a r t e r ly Jo u r n a l of Vol. 15 N o. 3 370 374 Fall 2012 Au s t r i a n Ec o n o m i c s Book Review Thinking, Fast and Slow Dan i e l Ka h n e m a n Lon d o n: Al l e n La n e, 2011, 499 p
More informationThe Decision Making Process
DECISION MAKING PROCESS SLIDE 1 INTRODUCTORY SLIDE For those who would like to walk students through a more traditional-looking process of Decision Making When Ethics Are in Play, the following notes and
More informationBehavioral Finance 1-1. Chapter 6 Overconfidence
Behavioral Finance 1-1 Chapter 6 Overconfidence 1 Overconfidence 1-2 Overconfidence Tendency for people to overestimate their knowledge, abilities, and the precision of their information, or to be overly
More informationRationality in Cognitive Science
Rationality in Cognitive Science Some Views of Rationality in Cognitive Science Anderson s (1991) Principle of Rationality: The cognitive system optimizes the adaptation of the behavior of the organism.
More informationHave you ever noticed how easy it is to know when someone else is
part one From the Outside Looking In Have you ever noticed how easy it is to know when someone else is making a bad decision a friend is impulsively quitting her job; a family member is buying a house
More informationDecision-Making Models in Foreign Policy
Decision-Making Models in Foreign Policy Foreign policies are the strategies governments use to guide their actions in the international arena. Foreign policies spell out the objectives state leaders have
More informationWhat You Will Learn to Do. Linked Core Abilities Build your capacity for life-long learning Treat self and others with respect
Courtesy of Army JROTC U3C1L1 Self-Awareness Key Words: Assessment Associate Cluster Differentiate Introspection What You Will Learn to Do Determine your behavioral preferences Linked Core Abilities Build
More informationKevin Burns. Introduction. Foundation
From: AAAI Technical Report FS-02-01. Compilation copyright 2002, AAAI (www.aaai.org). All rights reserved. Dealing with TRACS: The Game of Confidence and Consequence Kevin Burns The MITRE Corporation
More informationImproving Marketing Performance With Behavioral Insights:
We usually think of ourselves as sitting in the driver's seat, with ultimate control over the decisions we made...this perception has more to do with our desires-with how we want to view ourselves-than
More informationORGANISATIONAL BEHAVIOUR
ORGANISATIONAL BEHAVIOUR LECTURE 3, CHAPTER 6 A process through which Individuals organize and interpret their sensory impressions in order to give meaning to their environment. PERCEPTION Why is Perception
More informationBreaking the Rules. Stephen Carver FAPM FIRM
Breaking the Rules Stephen Carver FAPM FIRM Know the rules well that way you can break them more effectively On Compliance Some of the worst cultures have the biggest compliance departments and the most
More informationBehavioral Science Insights for a Hungry Healthcare Market
Behavioral Science Insights for a Hungry Healthcare Market How unconscious biases impact treatment decision-making By Amy Marta, Hensley Evans and Fiona Taylor Behavioral Science Insights for a Hungry
More informationMindfulness at work. Ben Dattner, Ph.D. Allison Dunn
Mindfulness at work Ben Dattner, Ph.D. Allison Dunn Definition Mindlessness involves automatic, habitual thought: Treating information as though it is context-free and true regardless of circumstances
More informationFingerspelling EEK! Lee Godbold, M.Ed Lead Interpreter, Texas School for the Deaf. BEI Master, Court, Medical NIC, Ed K-12
Fingerspelling EEK! Lee Godbold, M.Ed Lead Interpreter, Texas School for the Deaf BEI Master, Court, Medical NIC, Ed K-12 Never have I ever I've never been to EUROPE I've never been SKYDIVING I've never
More informationIntroduction to Behavioral Economics Like the subject matter of behavioral economics, this course is divided into two parts:
Economics 142: Behavioral Economics Spring 2008 Vincent Crawford (with very large debts to Colin Camerer of Caltech, David Laibson of Harvard, and especially Botond Koszegi and Matthew Rabin of UC Berkeley)
More informationApply Your knowledge of the Psychology of Learning
LP 9A applying operant cond 1 Apply Your knowledge of the Psychology of Learning You should start relating the psychology of learning to your list of occupations and/or social issues. Where do you see
More informationRepresentativeness Heuristic and Conjunction Errors. Risk Attitude and Framing Effects
1st: Representativeness Heuristic and Conjunction Errors 2nd: Risk Attitude and Framing Effects Psychology 355: Cognitive Psychology Instructor: John Miyamoto 05/30/2018: Lecture 10-3 Note: This Powerpoint
More informationManagerial Decision Making: Session 6
Representativeness Review Managerial Decision Making: Session 6 Classic Heuristics: Representativeness (continued) and Availability Kent L. Womack, 2003, all rights reserved. Please do not share outside
More informationKahneman, Daniel. Thinking Fast and Slow. New York: Farrar, Straus & Giroux, 2011.
The accumulating research indicates that individuals cognitive and behavioral orientations to objects (their thoughts and actions) are frequently based on rapid shortcuts or heuristics. The past few decades
More informationALCOHOL AND YOU Alcohol
ALCOHOL AND YOU Alcohol BEYOND ALCOHOL, WITHIN YOURSELF As you transition to college, one of the decisions that you and your classmates face deals with alcohol. While most of you faced decisions about
More informationChanging Public Behavior Levers of Change
Changing Public Behavior Levers of Change Implications when behavioral tendencies serve as "levers" Adapted from: Shafir, E., ed. (2013). The Behavioral Foundations of Public Policy. Princeton University
More informationFAQ: Heuristics, Biases, and Alternatives
Question 1: What is meant by the phrase biases in judgment heuristics? Response: A bias is a predisposition to think or act in a certain way based on past experience or values (Bazerman, 2006). The term
More informationFoundations for Success. Unit 3
Foundations for Success Unit 3 Know Yourself Socrates Lesson 1 Self-Awareness Key Terms assessment associate cluster differentiate introspection What You Will Learn to Do Determine your behavioral preferences
More informationProbabilities and Research. Statistics
Probabilities and Research Statistics Sampling a Population Interviewed 83 out of 616 (13.5%) initial victims Generalizability: Ability to apply findings from one sample or in one context to other samples
More informationThe one thing to note about Bazerman is that he brings deep and broad
The Power of Noticing: What the Best Leaders See Max H. Bazerman Simon & Schuster 2014 240 pp $20.39 (Amazon) Hardcover ISBN 13: 978 1476700298 Rating: Three Stars The one thing to note about Bazerman
More informationPerception Search Evaluation Choice
Decision Making as a Process Perception of current state Recognition of problem, opportunity, source of dissatisfaction Framing of problem situation and deciding how to decide Search Search for alternatives
More informationPresentation Preparation
November 2015 TABLE OF CONTENTS page 1 CHIROPRACTORS PRESENTING CHIROPRACTIC TO OTHER HEALTH PRACTITIONERS Presentation Tips Getting Ready Presentation Day Following Up page 3 COMMON QUESTIONS AND HOW
More informationBehavioral Finance? A Three-Part Model for Client Relationships
Behavioral Finance? A Three-Part Model for Client Relationships July 14, 2009 by Susan B. Weiner, CFA Behavioral finance can deepen your client relationships during market turmoil, if you recognize your
More informationA Behavioural Insights Approach to Population Level Behaviour Change
A Behavioural Insights Approach to Population Level Behaviour Change 2 nd December 2016 Amanda Bunten Behavioural Insights Research Analyst PHE BIT Amanda.Bunten@phe.gov.uk Jose Arellano PHE BIT Intern
More informationStep 2 Challenging negative thoughts "Weeding"
Managing Automatic Negative Thoughts (ANTs) Step 1 Identifying negative thoughts "ANTs" Step 2 Challenging negative thoughts "Weeding" Step 3 Planting positive thoughts 'Potting" Step1 Identifying Your
More informationDiagnostic Error Human Expertise and Cognitive Biases
Human Expertise and Cognitive Biases A recent article by Abraham Verghese looked a self-reported diagnostic error Verghese et al A. J. Med. December 2015: 128:1322-1324 Inadequate physical exam (failure
More informationCREATING AN INCLUSIVE CAMPUS UNDERSTANDING AND CHALLENGING IMPLICIT BIAS
CREATING AN INCLUSIVE CAMPUS UNDERSTANDING AND CHALLENGING IMPLICIT BIAS Lena Tenney, MPA, MEd. Coordinator of Public Engagement they/them/theirs Joshua Bates, MA, MCRP Social Policy Analyst he/him/his
More informationLeadership Beyond Reason
1-Values... 2 2-Thoughts... 2 Cognitive Style... 2 Orientation to Reality... 2 Holding Opposing Thoughts... 2 Adapting to New Realities... 2 Intuition... 2 Creativity... 3 Cognitive Distortions... 3 Observe
More informationSujata Ives, PhD, OWDS, GCDF. MAACCE Conference May 8 & Dr. Ives 1
Sujata Ives, PhD, OWDS, GCDF MAACCE Conference May 8 & 9 2014 Dr. Ives 1 I will be able to. Understand Brain Systems and Gender (sex) differences. Discuss Gut Brain. Discuss Metacognition. Recognize the
More informationBehavioural models. Marcus Bendtsen Department of Computer and Information Science (IDA) Division for Database and Information Techniques (ADIT)
Behavioural models Cognitive biases Marcus Bendtsen Department of Computer and Information Science (IDA) Division for Database and Information Techniques (ADIT) Judgement under uncertainty Humans are not
More informationQUESTIONS ANSWERED BY
Module 16 QUESTIONS ANSWERED BY BERNIE SIEGEL, MD 2 Q How do our thoughts and beliefs affect the health of our bodies? A You can t separate thoughts and beliefs from your body. What you think and what
More informationBehavioral Game Theory
School of Computer Science, McGill University March 4, 2011 1 2 3 4 5 Outline Nash equilibria One-shot games 1 2 3 4 5 I Nash equilibria One-shot games Definition: A study of actual individual s behaviors
More informationRob s family has been telling him to take his medicine. But he only listens when the doctor told him to do so.
COMPARTMENTS S2 Messenger img: totalhealth.co.uk Rob s family has been telling him to take his medicine. But he only listens when the doctor told him to do so. Adapted by 2014 DIC from 2010 IIT Institute
More informationLook to see if they can focus on compassionate attention, compassionate thinking and compassionate behaviour. This is how the person brings their
Compassionate Letter Writing Therapist Notes The idea behind compassionate mind letter writing is to help people engage with their problems with a focus on understanding and warmth. We want to try to bring
More informationSTRATEGIC COST ADVICE AND THE EFFECT OF THE AVAILABILITY HEURISTIC C J FORTUNE
CIB World Building Congress, April 21, Wellington, New Zealand Page 1 of 9 STRATEGIC COST ADVICE AND THE EFFECT OF THE AVAILABILITY HEURISTIC C J FORTUNE School of the Built Environment, Liverpool John
More informationBuilding Emotional Self-Awareness
Building Emotional Self-Awareness Definition Notes Emotional Self-Awareness is the ability to recognize and accurately label your own feelings. Emotions express themselves through three channels physically,
More informationGUEN DONDÉ HEAD OF RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF BUSINESS ETHICS
WHAT DOES ETHICS AT WORK MEAN TO EMPLOYEES? GUEN DONDÉ HEAD OF RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF BUSINESS ETHICS IBE 05/07/2018 1 ABOUT THE IBE The IBE was established in 1986 to promote high standards of business
More informationA Review of Counterfactual thinking and the first instinct fallacy by Kruger, Wirtz, and Miller (2005)
A Review of Counterfactual thinking and the first instinct fallacy by Kruger, Wirtz, and Miller (2005) BY RICHARD THRIPP EXP 6506 UNIVERSITY OF CENTRAL FLORIDA NOVEMBER 5, 2015 What is counterfactual thinking?
More information