Risk assessment principle and Risk management
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1 Risk assessment principle and Risk management Regional Seminar on Dangerous Offenders Yerevan, January 2016 Vaclav Jiricka Czech Republic
2 RISKS
3 DEFINITION: RISK - possibility of loss or injury - potential of losing something of value, such as physical health, social status, emotional well being RISK - a consequence of action taken in spite of uncertainty LIKELIHOOD MAGNITUDE
4 DEFINITION: RISK Intervention Risk Effect size Aspirin Heart attack 0.03 Chemotherapy Breast cancer 0.11 Bypass surgery Heart disease 0.15 Offender Treatment Recidivism 0.29
5 RISK ASSESSMENT
6 RISK ASSESSMENT: DEFINITIONS - requires calculations of two components of risk: the magnitude of the potential loss and the probability that the loss will occur - the determination of quantitative or qualitative value of risk related to a concrete situation and a recognized threat
7 PUBLIC OPINION Bread and water! They are NOT in a hotel! Have them build roads! They shall learn how to behave!
8 EVEN VERY DANGEROUS OFFENDERS WILL BE RELEASED ONE DAY
9 PUBLIC OPINION Bread and water! They are NOT in a hotel! Let the prison staff do SOMETHING about them! They shall learn how to behave!
10 POSSIBLE TARGET GROUPS FOR TREATMENT The same treatment to all prisoners? Mentally ill / unstable / impaired? Low" risk criminals / young offenders? Career / persistant criminals? High risk criminals > behavior in the prison? High risk criminals > according to their offence? High risk criminals > personality disordered? Responsive and motivated prisoners?
11 SECURITY TREATMENT
12 SECURITY TREATMENT
13 PRISONERS RISKS AND PUBLIC SECURITY PUBLIC SECURITY INTERNAL RISK EXTERNAL RISKS isolation following the rules prison security adaptation and regime Aim: safe sentence safe prison expecting of law-abiding behaviour after release reduction of recidivism treatment Aim: reintegration
14 INTERNAL RISKS SECURITY RISKS
15 EXAMPLES OF INTERNAL RISKS Personality Personality disorder Affective disorder Substance abuse* History of suicide attempts* Violence (offender / victim role) Cognitive skills Escape Social contacts organized criminality appropriate authorities religious authorities Other behavioural signs Readings Writings Handsigns etc. * check within the first 24 hours after admission
16 EXTERNAL RISKS CRIMINOGENIC RISKS
17 RECOMMENDATION ON DANGEROUS OFFENDERS Recommendation CM/Rec(2014)3 of the Committee of Ministers to member States concerning dangerous offenders (Adopted by the Committee of Ministers on 19 February 2014 at the 1192nd meeting of the Ministers Deputies) Part I 1 e): Risk management is the process of selecting and applying a range of intervention measures in custodial and community settings and in the post-release period or in the context of preventive supervision, with the aim of reducing the risk of very serious sexual or very serious violent crime against persons.
18 RECOMMENDATION ON DANGEROUS OFFENDERS Part I 5: 6: The length of the sentence or the offender's general recidivism cannot constitute the only criteria for defining an offender as dangerous in this sense. The risk management of dangerous offenders should, where appropriate, have the long-term aim of their safe reintegration into the community in a manner consistent with public protection from the risk posed by the offender. This should involve an individual plan that contains a staged process of rehabilitation through appropriate intervention.
19 4 GENERATIONS OF RISK ASSESSMENT TOOLS I II III IV - clinical examination - non-structured assessment - static factors - no further interventions - static AND dynamic factors - sentence plan, goal oriented interventions - protective factors, responsivity - sentence plan, goal oriented interventions - scenarios
20 PREDICTIVE VALIDITY recidivism Instrument generation general violent 1 (clinical) (statistical) (+static & dynamic) (+scenarios) _ Bonta, 2008
21 INFORMATION SOURCES
22 BASIC PRINCIPLES CRIMINOGENIC RISKS STATIC DYNAMIC CRIMINOGENIC NEEDS RESPONSIVITY
23
24 STATIC FACTORS Criminal history Risk of harm (violent, sex, drugs) Current crime
25 RISK OF HARM Crime characteristics and circumstances Relationship to the victim Triggers
26 DYNAMIC FACTORS Housing Employment Finances Family and Social Contacts Education Addictions Personality and Behaviour
27 ADAPTATION Behaviour towards personnel Behaviour towards other inmates Suicidal behaviour / self-harm Hunger strikes, protesting Other significant information
28 SELF-ASSESSMENT Self-care Interpersonal relationships Attitudes towards criminal activities Motivation for solving problems
29 REHABILITATION Risk factors Protective factors
30 RISK MANAGEMENT
31 ADDRESSING RISK-RELATED NEEDS Part I 9: Special risk-related needs of dangerous offenders should be addressed throughout the period of the intervention and sufficient resources should be allocated in order to deal effectively with the particular situation and specific needs. Part II 37: Plans should be realistic and have achievable objectives and should be structured in such a way as to allow the offender to understand clearly the purposes of the interventions and the expectations of him or her.
32 SECURITY MEASURES AND TREATMENT Part V 41: Security measures should be set to the minimum necessary, and the level of security should be revised regularly. Part V 45: The purpose of the treatment of dangerous offenders should be such as to sustain their health and self-respect and, so far as the length of sentence permits, to develop their sense of responsibility and encourage those attitudes and skills that will help them to lead lawabiding and self-supporting lives
33 STAFF EDUCATION Part VI 49: All staff, including relevant authorities, agencies, professionals and associations involved in the assessment and treatment of dangerous offenders should be selected on the basis of defined skills and competences and professionally supervised. They should have sufficient resources and training in assessing and dealing with the specific needs, risk factors and conditions of this group.
34 WHAT WORKS? Golden 60ies Everything Works Nothing Works Renaissance: WHAT Works? Knowledge transformation: > 2000 Making It Work Bonta, 2010
35 PRINCIPLES OF EFFECTIVE REHABILITATION Risk Principle as number of risk/needs factors increase, the effort to modify them must increase, too Need Principle not all needs are causally related to criminal conduct only some needs are criminogenic Responsivity Principle personal factors affect responsiveness to interventions Bonta, 1990, 2010
36 RISK AND TREATMENT (% RECIDIVISM) Study Risk Low Intensive Bonta et al. (2000) Low High O Donnell et al (1971) Low High Treatment Baird et al (1979) Low High Andrews & Kiessling (1980) Low High Bonta, 2010
37 risk PRINCIPLES OF EFFECTIVE REHABILITATION High High Moderate Pre regime + employment < 1 year > Post low High risk offenders Low risk offenders McGuire, 2008
38 risk PRINCIPLES OF EFFECTIVE REHABILITATION high moderate moderate moderate crime oriented treatment Pre < 1 year > Post High risk offenders Low risk offenders McGuire, 2008
39 CRIME ARREST SENTENCE PLAN Employment Education Social training Recreation Family relationship COMMUNITY REENTRY COURT PRE-TRIAL DETENTION ENTRY PRISON SENTENCE ASSESSMENT
40 CRIME ARREST STRUCTURED REPORT ON: Programme fulfillment Changes of behaviour & attitudes Release perspectives Possible risks Protective factors COMMUNITY REENTRY COURT PRE-TRIAL DETENTION ENTRY PRISON SENTENCE ASSESSMENT
41 Risk level PRINCIPLES OF EFFECTIVE REHABILITATION minimal treatment long-term therapeutic treatment standard regime + employment short-therm psycho-social training Responsivity (motivation)
42 Risk level PRINCIPLES OF EFFECTIVE REHABILITATION minimal treatment long-term therapeutic treatment standard regime + employment short-therm psycho-social training Standard regime employment Responsivity (motivation)
43 Risk level PRINCIPLES OF EFFECTIVE REHABILITATION Debt counselling minimal treatment long-term therapeutic treatment Driving offences standard regime + employment short-therm psycho-social training Responsivity (motivation)
44 Risk level PRINCIPLES OF EFFECTIVE REHABILITATION Regime minimal treatment Motivational long-term therapeutic treatment prg. standard regime + employment short-therm psycho-social training Responsivity (motivation)
45 Risk level PRINCIPLES OF EFFECTIVE REHABILITATION Violent offenders Sex offenders minimal treatment long-term therapeutic treatment standard regime + employment short-therm psycho-social training Responsivity (motivation)
46 CONCLUSIONS (1) Risk assessment is a part of dynamic security. There are internal (security) and external (criminogenic) risks to be assessed. Basic internal risks should be assessed within 24 hours after admission (risk of suicide, automutilation, drug abuse )
47 CONCLUSIONS (2) There is no effective rehabilitation without proper risk assessment. Treatment which is based on the RNR-approach seems to be more effective. Developing of social skills, introspection etc. must be related to the criminogenic risks.
48 CONCLUSIONS (3) An individual sentence plan should be a staged process of rehabilitation through appropriate intervention. Staff shall be trained in theory and particular instruments (i.e. RA).
49 CONTACT PhDr. Vaclav Jiricka, Ph.D.
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