The Future of Migration Policy: Long-term Responses
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1 The Future of Migration Policy: Long-term Responses Rainer Münz Erste Group Bank, Head of Research & Development IOM Interagency brown bag lunch Geneva, January 14, 2010 page 1 January 14, 2010
2 Where Do We Come From? page 2 IOM, January 14, 2010
3 100 Years Ago page 3 IOM, January 14, 2010
4 Global European Emigration Central Asia/Siberia Palestine/Israel N & S America Algeria Southern Africa Australia, New Zealand 70 million From richer Europeans Europe emigrated to less to developed overseas peripheries destinations page 4 IOM, January 14, 2010
5 Indian South-South Emigration Caribbean East Africa South Africa Mauritius Malaysia, Singapore Fiji Reshuffling Where did Mahatman of East Indian Gandhi labor start within his political the British career? Empire page 5 IOM, January 14, 2010
6 Chinese South-South + North Emigration USA, Canada SE Asia Large scale export/import of Chinese labor page 6 IOM, January 14, 2010
7 60 Years Ago page 7 IOM, January 14, 2010
8 World Migration 1950 India/ Pakistan China/Taiwan N & S America Palestine/ Israel Australia, New Zealand More migrants in the South than in the North page 8 IOM, January 14, 2010
9 Where Are We Now? page 9 IOM, January 14, 2010
10 The Global Picture page 10 IOM, January 14, 2010
11 214 Million International Migrants page 11 IOM, January 14, 2010
12 This is where people come from Stocks of international migrants by country of origin page 12 IOM, January 14, 2010
13 and this is where they go to Stocks of international migrants by country of destination page 13 IOM, January 14, 2010
14 Magnet Societies US/Cdn, EU27/EEA/CH, Russia, the Gulf + Australia are home or host to 70% of the world s migrant population page 14 IOM, January 14, 2010
15 But let s not forget: 214 million migrants are only 3% of the world s global population page 15 IOM, January 14, 2010
16 Europe page 16 IOM, January 14, 2010
17 From Emigration to Immigration page 17 IOM, January 14, 2010
18 This has only changed recently ERSTE GROUP EU 27: immigration minus emigration (= net migration), years of net emigration 25 years of net immigration Source: Eurostat page 18 IOM, January 14, 2010
19 Net Migration in Europe, (annual rate per 1000 inhabitants) below to -2-2 to 0 0 to to +5 over +5 Source: Eurostat, UN page 19 IOM, January 14, 2010
20 Net Migration in Europe, (annual rate per 1000 inhabitants) below to -2-2 to 0 0 to to +5 over +5 Source: Eurostat, UN page 20 IOM, January 14, 2010
21 Net Migration in Europe, (annual rate per 1000 inhabitants) below to -2-2 to 0 0 to to +5 over +5 Source: Eurostat, UN page 21 IOM, January 14, 2010
22 Today, 43 million migrants live in EU 27 Diagramm 3: Immigration population in the EU-15 by origin Migrant Stock (source: in EU Münz 27 and by Fassmann, Region of 2004) Origin, 2007 North America Africa, Asia, M ENA 3% 31% Turkey 7% other CEE/ SEE 7% Sout h A merica, Caribbean 13 % EU CE/ SEE 10 % EU West 18 % EU South 11% Total: 43 million 14 million migrants are mobile between current 27 EU member states 28 million migrants from third countries Source: EU Labour Force Survey 2007 page 22 IOM, January 14, 2010
23 What s Ahead of Us? page 23 IOM, January 14, 2010
24 Challenge No. 1: Demographic Change page 24 IOM, January 14, 2010
25 Aging page 25 IOM, January 14, 2010
26 If you had to explain it to your grandmother EU 27: age pyramid, 2008, 2060 page 26 IOM, January 14, 2010
27 The average European is getting older EU 27: Average Age, Median Age Average Age Source: Eurostat; EU Comm 2007 page 27 IOM, January 14, 2010
28 Old World : Europe continues to be the world s oldest region 65+ in % Percentage of population % 20% 10% 0% EU27 World Quelle: UN Source: UN Population Division page 28 IOM, January 14, 2010
29 Our Future: More Deaths Than Births page 29 IOM, January 14, 2010
30 Natural Increase/Decrease, 2008 Births minus deaths per 1000 inhabitants over to to to to -5 below -5 Source: Eurostat 2008, CIA 2008 page 30 IOM, January 14, 2010 Quelle: UN Population Division 2000; Darstellung: Humboldt-Universität Berlin
31 Decrease in Population page 31 IOM, January 14, 2010
32 Population by Regions (actual change in %) Source: BfS, Eurostat, Berlin Institute page 32 IOM, January 14, 2010
33 Population by Regions (projected change in %) no an page Source: 33 Eurostat, Berlin Institute, national data for Belarus, IOM, Moldova, January Serbia, 14, 2010 Ukraine
34 Main Challenge page 34 IOM, January 14, 2010
35 Development of Labor Force and Support Ratio (no migration) (zero migration variant; at constant labor force participation rates) % % 84% 80% 60% % % 20% % Labor force Age group 65+/labor force Own calculations based on Europop 2008 page 35 IOM, January 14, 2010
36 What can we do? Learn to shrink moderately Increase the labor force participation of women Retire at a later point in life Bring in more migrants page 36 IOM, January 14, 2010
37 Possible Answers page 37 IOM, January 14, 2010
38 Can we shrink in a moderate way? page 38 IOM, January 14, 2010
39 Become a large Venice page 39 IOM, January 14, 2010
40 Become Scandinavian page 40 IOM, January 14, 2010
41 Development of Labor Force and Support Ratio (no migration) (zero migration variant; convergence to top 3 European countries with the highest labor force participation) % % % % 80% 60% 40% 20% % Labor force Age group 65+/labor force Own calculations based on Europop 2008 page 41 IOM, January 14, 2010
42 page 42 IOM, January 14, 2010
43 Employment Rates of the Elderly in EU Member States (Age Group 55-64), 2008 an page 43 IOM, January 14, 2010
44 Development of Labor Force and Support Ratio (no migration) (zero migration variant; increase in retirement age by 10 years) % % % 68% % 60% 40% 20% % Labor force Age group 65+/labor force Own calculations based on Europop 2008 page 44 IOM, January 14, 2010
45 Bring In More Migrants page 45 IOM, January 14, 2010
46 page 46 IOM, January 14, 2010
47 Development of Labor Force and Support Ratio (+50 mil. migrants) (migration variant; at constant labor force participation rates) % % % % 80% 60% 40% 20% % Labor force Age group 65+/labor force Own calculations based on Europop 2008 page 47 IOM, January 14, 2010
48 Employment Differential Between EU-Born ERSTE GROUP and Non-EU-Born by Gender, 2007 (in pts) page 48 IOM, January 14, 2010
49 Employment Gaps in EU 27 Among Non-EU-Born, 2007 page 49 IOM, January 14, 2010
50 Challenge No. 2: A Better Match page 50 IOM, January 14, 2010
51 Skills and Diversity How to attract make use of migrants with talents an adequate and skills? mix of skills? page 51 IOM, January 14, 2010
52 Development of Labor Force and Support Ratio (+50 mil. migrants) (medium variant; convergence to top 3 European countries with the highest labor force participation) % % 80% 60% % 46% 40% 20% % Labor force Age group 65+/labor force Own calculations based on Europop 2008 page 52 IOM, January 14, 2010
53 Development of Labor Force and Support Ratio (+50 mil. migrants) (medium variant; increase in retirement age by 10 years) % % 80% 60% % 45% 40% 20% % Labor force Age group 65+/labor force Own calculations based on Europop 2008 page 53 IOM, January 14, 2010
54 Challenge No. 3: Diversity page 54 IOM, January 14, 2010
55 Skills and Diversity How to manage societies with a high degree of ethnic and religious diversity page 55 IOM, January 14, 2010
56 Challenge No. 4: Humanitarian Responsibilities page 56 IOM, January 14, 2010
57 Humanitarian catastrophes Civil wars Famine, lack of water Natural disasters Source: Koser 2009 page 57 IOM, January 14, 2010
58 Climate change: it s real! page 58 IOM, January 14, 2010
59 With some obvious consequences page 59 IOM, January 14, 2010
60 Future Migration Policies What would be needed? page 60 IOM, January 14, 2010
61 What can we do? Identify gaps and shortages Improve skills assessment Adapt and retrain skills of migrants Co-develop skills with sending countries page 61 IOM, January 14, 2010
62 What can we do? Fight discrimination Improve the portability of acqured rights and benefits Establish honest mobility partnerships Explore circular migration page 62 IOM, January 14, 2010
63 We should develop smart and pro-active migration policies in the best interest of both - receiving countries and - international migrants page 63 IOM, January 14, 2010
64 And we should organize migration in a way that does not disrupt development opportunities in sending countries Source: Koser 2009 page 64 IOM, January 14, 2010
65 Thank you for your attention! page 65 IOM, January 14, 2010
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