Florida s New Economic Reality: The State of the State

Transcription

1 Florida s New Economic Reality: The State of the State FLORIDA PHILANTHROPIC NETWORK Dr. Gary Jackson Director, Regional Economic Research Institute Florida Gulf Coast University February 11,

2 How Will the Economy Perform This Year, Next Year and Beyond? 2

3 Is the Economy on Thin Ice? Could we see the Recovery Stall? 3

4 What About the Long- Run Costs of Running Large Federal Budget Deficits? 4

5 Will the Florida Economy Return to the Boom Times? The good old days? 5

6 91 Recession 08/09 Recession 01 Recession 6

7 91 Recession 01 Recession See 7

8 U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE Recession Recession /09 Recession Source: 8

9 730,000 U.S. Weekly Unemployment Claims Initial Claims, SA 680, , , , , , , , ,000 Source: 9

10 Consumer Confidence Index Index 1985= Source: Conference Board, 10

11 See 11

12 90,000 U.S. Retail Sales Motor Vehicle and Parts 80,000 70,000 Millions $ 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau 12

13 50,000 U.S. Retail Sales Gasoline stations 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 Millions $ 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau 13

14 14

15 26,000 U.S. Retail Sales Nonstore retailers 25,500 25,000 24,500 Millions $ 24,000 23,500 23,000 22,500 22,000 21,500 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov. 2009(p) Dec (a) Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau 15

16 19,000 U.S. Retail Sales Clothing and clothing access. stores 18,500 18,000 Millions $ 17,500 17,000 16,500 16,000 15,500 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov. 2009(p) Dec (a) Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau 16

17 See 17

18 See 18

19 See 19

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21 See 21

22 22

23 Source: BEA: 23

24 Source: BEA: 24

25 25

26 26

27 35,000 Florida Taxable Sales All Goods 30,000 Millions Dollars 25,000 20,000 15,000 10, Jan 2000 Apr 2000 Jul 2000 Oct 2001 Jan 2001 Apr 2001 Jul 2001 Oct 2002 Jan 2002 Apr 2002 Jul 2002 Oct 2003 Jan 2003 Apr 2003 Jul 2003 Oct 2004 Jan 2004 Apr 2004 Jul 2004 Oct 2005 Jan 2005 Apr 2005 Jul 2005 Oct 2006 Jan 2006 Apr 2006 Jul 2006 Oct 2007 Jan 2007 Apr 2007 Jul 2007 Oct 2008 Jan 2008 Apr 2008 Jul 2008 Oct 2009 Jan 2009 Apr 2009 Jul 2009 Oct Source: Florida EDR, 27

28 3,500 Florida Taxable Sales Durable Goods 3,000 Millions Dollars 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Jan 2000 May 2000 Sep 2001 Jan 2001 May 2001 Sep 2002 Jan 2002 May 2002 Sep 2003 Jan 2003 May 2003 Sep 2004 Jan 2004 May 2004 Sep 2005 Jan 2005 May 2005 Sep 2006 Jan 2006 May 2006 Sep 2007 Jan 2007 May 2007 Sep 2008 Jan 2008 May 2008 Sep 2009 Jan 2009 May 2009 Sep Source: Florida EDR, 28

29 6,000 Florida Taxable Sales AUTOMOBILES & ACCESSORIES 5,500 5,000 Millions Dollars 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2, Jan 2000 May 2000 Sep 2001 Jan 2001 May 2001 Sep 2002 Jan 2002 May 2002 Sep 2003 Jan 2003 May 2003 Sep 2004 Jan 2004 May 2004 Sep 2005 Jan 2005 May 2005 Sep 2006 Jan 2006 May 2006 Sep 2007 Jan 2007 May 2007 Sep 2008 Jan 2008 May 2008 Sep 2009 Jan 2009 May 2009 Sep Source: Florida EDR, 29

30 14,000 Florida Taxable Sales Nondurables 12,000 10,000 Millions Dollars 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Jan 2000 Apr 2000 Jul 2000 Oct 2001 Jan 2001 Apr 2001 Jul 2001 Oct 2002 Jan 2002 Apr 2002 Jul 2002 Oct 2003 Jan 2003 Apr 2003 Jul 2003 Oct 2004 Jan 2004 Apr 2004 Jul 2004 Oct 2005 Jan 2005 Apr 2005 Jul 2005 Oct 2006 Jan 2006 Apr 2006 Jul 2006 Oct 2007 Jan 2007 Apr 2007 Jul 2007 Oct 2008 Jan 2008 Apr 2008 Jul 2008 Oct 2009 Jan 2009 Apr 2009 Jul Source: Florida EDR, 30

31 8,000 Florida Taxable Sales TOURISM & RECREATION 7,000 6,000 Millions Dollars 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Jan 2000 Apr 2000 Jul 2000 Oct 2001 Jan 2001 Apr 2001 Jul 2001 Oct 2002 Jan 2002 Apr 2002 Jul 2002 Oct 2003 Jan 2003 Apr 2003 Jul 2003 Oct 2004 Jan 2004 Apr 2004 Jul 2004 Oct 2005 Jan 2005 Apr 2005 Jul 2005 Oct 2006 Jan 2006 Apr 2006 Jul 2006 Oct 2007 Jan 2007 Apr 2007 Jul 2007 Oct 2008 Jan 2008 Apr 2008 Jul 2008 Oct 2009 Jan 2009 Apr 2009 Jul 2009 Oct Source: Florida EDR, 31

32 Florida's Existing Single Family Home Sales by Realtors $300 Homes Sold by Realtors Sales Median Price $250 $200 $150 Median Sale Price - Thousands $ Sales 162,242 December 2009 Median Price $140,400 $50 0 $ Source: FAR,

33 10,000,000 Florida Labor Force and Employment All Industries 9,500,000 9,000,000 8,500,000 8,000,000 Labor Force Employment 7,500,000 7,000,000 6,500,000 6,000,000 5,500,000 December 2009 Labor Force 9,180,000 Employment 8,093,000 Unemployment 1,087,000 5,000,000 Source: AWI 33

34 Florida Unemployment Rate December 2009 Unemployment Rate of 11.8 % Percent Jan-90 Sep-90 May-91 Jan-92 Sep-92 May-93 Jan-94 Sep-94 May-95 Jan-96 Sep-96 May-97 Jan-98 Sep-98 May-99 Jan-00 Sep-00 May-01 Jan-02 Sep-02 May-03 Jan-04 Sep-04 May-05 Jan-06 Sep-06 May-07 Jan-08 Sep-08 May-09 Source: AWI 34

35 1,200,000 Florida Unemployment Level 1,000, ,000 December 2009 Unemployment Level of 1,087,000 Percent 600, , ,000 0 Source: AWI 35

36 0 Overall Florida Employment Losses December 07 to December ,000 Goods Producing Emp, -239, , ,000 Total Nonag Emp, -689,000 Total Private Emp, -682, , , , ,000 Source: AWI 36

37 Construction Job Losses December 07 to December ,000-40,000-60,000-80,000 Total Construction -173,600 Specialty Trade Contractors -117,800 Building Equipment Contractors -37,400 Construction of Buildings -32,000 Heavy /Civil Eng. Construction -23, , , , , ,000 Source: AWI 37

38 40.0 Florida Employment Losses by Industry December 07 to December 09 (Thousands) Manuf Leisure Fin. Hospitality Activities Trans & Ware Wholesale Trade Inform Real Estate Total Gov Other Serv Ed. & Health Prof. & Bus Ser Retail Trade Source: AWI 38

39 12,000 Florida Employment Gains and Losses Education and Health Services December 07 to December 09 10,000 8,000 6,000 Hospitals 10,800 Nursing Resid. Facilities 8,700 4,000 2,000 0 Amb. Health Care 5,000 Social Assistance 3,700 Colleges Univer 2,700 Other Ser 1,100 Elem & Sec Schools -1,100-2,000 39

40 Florida Weekly Unemployment Claims Initial Claims, SA 45,000 40,000 Jan 23 22,659 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Source: 40

41 Consumer Price Index 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% Consumer Price Index Monthly Data - Change From Year Earlier Miami / Ft. Lauderdale US South Region US National Change From Year Earlier 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Source: BLS 41

42 Miami - Fort Lauderdale CPI Components 12 month change ending December 2009 Transportation Other Goods and Services * Medical Care Education and Communication Recreation Food and Beverage * Other goods and services: Tobacco and smoking products, personal care products and services, and miscellaneous personal goods. Housing Apparel -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 12 Month Percentage Change Source: BLS 42

43 Federal Reserve Forecast for the National Economy 6.0 Growth of Real GDP Percent LR Source: Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Minutes November 3-4,

44 Federal Reserve Forecast for the National Economy 11.0 Unemployment Rate Percent LR Year Source: Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Minutes November 3-4,

45 Summary There are many signs of positive economic activity so expect a slow and gradual recovery. A key driver for economic growth in Florida has been population growth which is expected to return slowly after the national housing and financial sectors recover. Unemployment rates will remain high in short run and lag behind economic activity recovery. 45

46 Summary (Continued) Long-run growth prospects for Florida are good with a more affordable cost of living and state efforts to diversify the overall economy. Federal Reserve will begin to reversal of the stimulus money supply efforts and raise interest rates later this year. Federal budget deficits will be tough to deal with in the future. High potential to create inflation. 46