The Economics of Smoking: Dispelling the Myths

Transcription

1 The Economics of Smoking: Dispelling the Myths Frank J. Chaloupka, University of Illinois at Chicago Summit on Creation of a Tobacco Endgame for Canada Kingston, Ontario, Canada, 30 September 1 October,

2 @tobacconomics

3 Tax, Price & Tobacco Use

4 Tobacco Taxation We [] have a package of six policy measures, known as MPOWER, that can help countries implement the provisions in the Convention. All six measures have a proven ability to reduce tobacco use in any resource setting. But tobacco taxes are by far the most effective. Director General Dr. Margaret Chan, WHO,

5 27,000 Cigarette Price & Consumption Hungary, , Inflation Adjusted , , Million Sticks 21,000 19, Price, 2011 Forints/Pack 17, , , Consumption, Million Sticks Price, 2011 Forints Linear (Consumption, Million Sticks) Linear (Price, 2011 Forints) Sources: EIU, ERC, and World Bank

6 Adult Prevalence & Price, Brazil 16 Adult Smoking Prevalence and Cigarette Price Brazil, Inflation Adjusted, Adult Smoking Prevaleence Price per Pack, 2013 BRL Sales, Million Sticks Price per Pack, 2013 BRL Sources: Ministry of Health, Brazil; EIU; World Bank

7 200,000 Monthly Quit Line Calls, United States 11/04-11/09 4/1/09 Federal Tax Increase 150,000 1/1/08 WI Tax Increase 100,000 50,

8 Cigarette Prices and Cessation US States & DC, % Ever Smokers Who Have Quit y = x R² = Average price (in cents) Source: BRFSS, Tax Burden on Tobacco, 2010, and author s

9 Cigarette Price & Youth Smoking Prevalence High School Seniors, United States, $ Price per Pack (1/14 Dollars) $5.75 $5.00 $4.25 $ Smoking Prevalence, 12th Grade Students $ Cigarette Price 12th grade prevalence 16 Sources: Tax Burden on Tobacco, BLS, MTF, and author s calculations

10 Price, Consumption & Lung Cancer, France 6.0 # cigarettes/adult/day Number/adult/day and death rates Lung cancer death rates per 100,000 (divided by four): men age Relative price Price (% relative to 1980) Year Sources: Jha & Hill, 2012

11 Increasing Elasticity with Increasing Price 0 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 $4.50 $5.00 $5.50 $6.00 $6.50 $7.00 $7.50 $8.00 $8.50 $9.00 $9.50 $ Price Elasticity State tax-paid sales TUS-CPS Prevalence & Consumption Tauras, et al., 2016 Pesko, et al.,

12 Disposable ENDS Sales Volume and Price, US $ ,000 $16.00 Sales Prices (Real 2014 Q4 Dollars) $15.00 $14.00 $13.00 $12.00 $11.00 $ ,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Sales Volume (Thousand of Pieces) $9.00 $8.00 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Real Price

13 Prices and Tobacco Use Similar evidence for variety of other tobacco products and for electronic nicotine delivery systems Generally see evidence of substitution between similar products (e.g. cigarettes, little cigars, roll-your-own Some evidence of complementarity between combustibles and

14 South Africa - Taxes, Prices, and Tax 25 Revenues, , Inflation Adjusted Rand per Pack Tax Revenues, Million Rand Industry Price Excise Tax VAT Excise Tax Revenues

15 Turkey Source: Tobacco-Free Kids, 2014

16 State Tobacco Control Program Funding and Youth Smoking Prevalence, United States, $1, Total Funding $Millions (FY10 dollars) $800 $600 $400 $ Percent Current Smoking $ Year 19 total state program funding high school prevalence Source: ImpacTeen Project, UIC; YRBS

17 Share of the World Population Covered by Selected Tobacco Control Policies, 2014 Note: The tobacco control policies depicted here correspond to the highest level of achievement at the national level, for the definitions of these highest categories, refer to the WHO Report on the Global Tobacco Epidemic 2015: Raising Taxes on Tobacco.Source: World Health Organization. 2015

18 Economic Impact of Tobacco Use

19 Smoking-Attributable Spending as Share of Total Health Expenditures, 2012, by Income Group and WHO Source: Goodchild, et al., forthcoming

20 Economic Costs of Smoking-Attributable Diseases as Share of GDP, 2012, by Income Group and WHO Source: Goodchild, et al., forthcoming

21 Economic Costs of Tobacco Canada doing better than much of the world Tobacco-attributable health care costs about 3.1% of total health expenditures Economic costs of tobacco about 0.94% of

22 Economic Impact of Tobacco Control - Dispelling the Myths

23 Oppositional Arguments - Impact on Jobs, Business

24 Impact on Jobs March 9, 2009 Vanguard, AllAfrica.com Nigeria Anti-Tobacco Bill 400,000 Jobs on the Line if passed into law, The National Tobacco Bill which is currently on the floor of the National Assembly will lead to at least 400,000 Nigerians being thrown into the unemployment market. This was the view expressed by the Chairman, Senate Committee on Industries, Senator Kamorudeen Adedbu, while speaking with reporters recently in Iselyn, Oyo State, while speaking at the 2008 Farmers Productivity Day Award Ceremony.

25 Tobacco Control & Employment Tobacco control will lead to decreased consumption of tobacco products Small loss of jobs in tobacco sector Money not spent on tobacco products will be spent on other goods and services Gains in jobs in other sectors Increase in tobacco tax revenues will be spent by government Additional job gains in other sectors Net increase in jobs in most countries

26 Tobacco Control & Business Impact of smoke-free policies on hospitality sector No or small positive impact of smoke-free policies on bar and restaurant business (IARC Handbook 13) Impact of tobacco control policies on convenience stores (Huang and Chaloupka 2012) More business activity where cigarette taxes are higher No impact of smoke-free policies Overshifting and replacement purchase

27 Oppositional Arguments - Impact on the Poor

28 Impact on the Poor July 23, 2010 San Francisco Examiner Democrats are relying more heavily in their midterm 2010 election message that Republicans care nothing about the poor. Conveniently absent from this analysis is Republican opposition to President Barack Obama s cigarette tax increase While higher cigarette taxes do discourage smoking, they are highly regressive. Analyzing a slightly less severe proposal in 2007, the Tax Foundation noted that no other tax hurts the poor more than the cigarette tax. Peyton R. Miller, special to the

29 Tobacco & Poverty Family falls into poverty Foregone income 3: Breadwinner dies prematurely Poor men smoke Foregone income 2: Treatment cost & Lost working days & income Cycle of tobacco and poverty Breadwinner gets sick due to tobacco use Foregone income 1: More money spent Less money spent on tobacco: on Education, nutrition etc High opportunity cost Source: Yurekli,

30 Who Pays & Who Benefits Turkey - 25% Tax Increase 9% 8.5% 9.7% 4% -1% -6% -2.2% -11% -16% -21% -20.4% -18.5% -26% -31% -36% -35.3% Change in Consumption Change in Taxes Paid Source: Adapted from Önder & Yürekli,

31 Impact of Tobacco Taxes on the Poor Also depends on use of new tax revenues: Greater public support for tobacco tax increases when revenues are used for tobacco control and/or other health programs Net financial impact on low income households can be positive when taxes are used to support programs targeting the poor Concerns about regressivity offset by use of revenues for programs directed to poor

32 Oppositional Arguments - Illicit Trade

33 Impact on Illicit Trade February 11, 2014 Postmedia News Federal budget unveils major tax hike for smokers that will see jump in cost of cigarettes, tobacco and cigars Gregory Thomas, federal director of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation, said the government could have a difficult time trying to collect the more than $3 billion it s expecting in additional revenues over the next five years. The tobacco tax hike will dramatically increase the amount of contraband tobacco in Canada, he said, yet the government is only investing a relatively small amount in combatting the illegal tobacco market. Let s see them try and collect it [the expected additional revenue]. They re demanding a whole lot of conscience on the part of smokers, Thomas said. We all know that tobacco smuggling activity on our borders is a growing

34 Tax Avoidance & Evasion Do NOT Eliminate Health Impact of Higher Taxes Source: Schroth, 2014

35 Tax Avoidance & Evasion Do NOT Eliminate Revenue Impact of Higher Taxes Cook County Cigarette Tax and Tax Revenues - FY01-FY06 $1.75 $1.55 $1.35 $225,000,000 $205,000,000 $185,000,000 $165,000,000 Tax per Pack $1.15 $0.95 $0.75 $0.55 $0.35 Chicago tax rises from 16 to 48 cents Chicago tax up to 68 cents, 1/1/06 Chicago smoking ban, 1/16/06 $145,000,000 $125,000,000 $105,000,000 $85,000,000 $65,000,000 $45,000,000 Tax Revenues $ Fiscal Year $25,000,000 Tax Revenues 35

36 Illicit Cigarette Market Share & Cigarette Prices, % Latvia Illicit trade share as % of legal cigarette consumption 45.00% 40.00% 35.00% 30.00% Pakistan Bolivia Iran Lithuania PeruEcuador Brazil Malaysia Dominican Republic South Africa Egypt Poland 25.00% Bulgaria Tunisia Estonia Venezuela 20.00% Nigeria Slovakia UAE Mexico Austria Canada Costa Rica Uruguay Cameroon India Croatia Colombia Bosnia France 15.00% Philippines Kenya Guatemala Saudi Arabia Romania Vietnam Turkey Greece United Kingdom Serbia Georgia Indonesia Portugal Netherlands Sweden 10.00% AlgeriaMoroccoSlovenia UkraineChina Azerbaijan Spain USA GermanySwitzerland Argentina Finland Singapore Norway Uzbekistan 5.00% Hungary Italy Macedonia Chile Australia Israel Begium New Zealand Russia Thailand Denmark Kazakhstan South Korea Japan 0.00% Belarus Price USD Ireland y = x R² = Sources: Euromonitor, WHO

37 Determinants of Illicit Tobacco Corruption Weak tax administration Poor enforcement Presence of informal distribution networks Presence of criminal networks Access to cheaper sources

38 Smuggling and Corruption, Latvia 0.45 illicit cigarette trade volume Dominican Republic Pakistan Iran Bolivia Ecuador Bulgaria Malaysia Brazil Lithuania Peru South Africa Poland Estonia Mexico Nigeria Venezuela Guatemala Slovakia United Arab Emirates Canada Egypt Croatia 0.16 India Uruguay Philippines Romania Turkey Saudi Arabia Kenya Vietnam Hungary France Austria Sweden Algeria Georgia Costa Rica United Kingdom Netherlands Uzbekistan Morocco AzerbaijanIndonesia Portugal Germany Bosnia Greece China United States Ukraine Argentina Macedonia Slovenia Belgium Singapore Serbia Tunisia Norway Switzerland Finland Russia Colombia Italy Israel Spain Thailand Chile Australia South Korea Japan Belarus Kazkhstan New Zealand Denmark Ireland y = x R² = Transparency Index Sources: Euromonitor, Transparency International

39 Figure 12 Estimated Volumes of Cigarettes Consumed in the U.K. Duty paid, illicit, and crossborder shopping, Source: HM Revenue & Customs, 2014

40 Combating Illicit Tobacco Trade Illicit trade protocol to the WHO FCTC Adopted November 2012; currently in process of being signed/ratified; provisions calling for: Strong tax administration Prominent, high-tech tax stamps and other pack markings Licensing of manufacturers, exporters, distributors, retailers Export bonds Unique identification codes on packages Better enforcement Increased resources Focus on large scale smuggling Swift, severe penalties Multilateral/intersectoral cooperation

41 Cost-Effectiveness of Tobacco Control

42 Key Tobacco Control Policies

43 ENDS Taxation

44 Rationale for ENDS Taxation Improve Public Health Encourage switching from combusted to potentially less harmful products Prevent youth initiation Raise Revenue Replacement revenue source as revenues from cigarettes and other tobacco products fall

45 ENDS Taxation in the US Minnesota, North Carolina, Louisiana and DC currently tax ENDS 95% of wholesale price in MN; 67% in DC; 40% in PA 5 cents per ml in NC, LA; 7.5 cents/ml in WV; 20 cents/ml in KS Local ENDS taxes: Petersburg AK (45% of wholesale price); Mat Su Borough, AK (55% of wholesale price) Chicago (80 cents per unit, plus 55 cents per ML) Many others have proposed or are

46 ENDS Taxation Globally Togo: 45% of retail price Republic of Korea: 1799 won/ml (US$1.65/ml) Italy: Mid-2013: 58.5% of retail price Late-2014: 50% of retail price Early 2015: 3.73 per 10 mls May 2015: eliminated Portugal: 0.60/ml Others have proposed or are considering European Union proposal to tax like

47 Options for ENDS Taxation Low tax relative to cigarette, OTP taxes Little impact in reducing use, uptake Encourages dual use Maximize incentives to switch from combustibles to ENDS Minimal new revenue ENDS tax equivalent to cigarette tax Significant impact on use, uptake Little incentive to switch from combustibles to ENDS Modest new revenue

48 Options for ENDS Taxation Significant tax on ENDS coupled with increased taxes on cigarettes and other combustible tobacco products Maintain or increase relative price of combustibles Maximize switching while discouraging initiation and dual use Generates significant new revenues Relatively low cost, legal substitute could help address concerns about illicit trade

49 Summary

50 Summary Large, regular tobacco tax increases are single a key component of an Endgame strategy And generate considerable new revenue Tobacco Endgame is good for the economy Economic arguments continue to be significant obstacle False or greatly overstated Tobacco control is highly cost-effective Differential taxation could be a key part of Endgame strategy

51 For more information: Tobacconomics