North America Propylene Supply Study

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1 North America Propylene Supply Study Table of Contents Introduction 3 Lead Author, Chuck Carr 4 Supporting Authors 5 IHS Chemical Special Reports 5 Available Now 5 Upcoming 5 Contact List 6 Explanatory Notes 9 Study Preface 9 Data Sources 9 Supply/Demand Balances 13 Derivatives 13 Conversion Factors 14 Incoterms Shipping Terms 14 Study Methodology 15 Production 15 Operating Rates 16 Demand 17 Trade 18 Abbreviations in this Study 19 Executive Overview 23 Global Outlook 23 Supply and Demand 23 Supply/Demand Snapshots 26 Global Net Trade 27 Forecast Market Conditions 29 North America Overview 30 Supply and Demand 30 Trade 32 Regional Dynamics 34 Primary Conclusions 35 i

2 Strategic Issues 39 The Effect of Shale and Tight Oil on Propylene Supply 39 Background 39 Decreased Propylene Production from Steam Crackers 41 Advantaged Feedstocks for On-Purpose Production 43 Fluid Catalytic Cracking (FCC) Propylene Production Remains Flat 44 Limited FCC Feedstock (Gasoil) Availability 45 Attractive Alkylation Economics 45 Weak Cumene, and Reduced RG Propylene Competition 46 Propane Dehydrogenation in North America 48 A Need for On-Purpose Propylene Production 48 Upcoming North American PDH Projects 53 Olefin Production in China 57 Background 57 Propane Dehydrogenation (PDH) 57 Coal to Olefins/Propylene (CTO/CTP) 59 Methanol to Olefins (MTO) 60 The Big Picture 61 Impact of Pipeline Service Changes and Additions 64 Background 64 Enterprise Lou-Tex Pipeline 65 Williams Pipeline Project 67 Alkylation of Refinery Grade Propylene 69 Alkylation 70 Isobutane Availability and Price 71 Butylene Shortage 72 Blending of Condensates 73 Refinery Grade Alkylation Value 73 Debottlenecking and/or New Alkylation Units 76 Gas-to-Propylene Technology 79 A Need for On-Purpose Propylene Production 79 Methane: The New Paradigm? 79 BASF Plans for GTP Complex 82 Will PDH Investments be put on Hold? 82 ii

3 Competitive Analysis: Propylene Cost & Margin Economics 85 Competitive Cost & Margin Analytics Model Applications 85 Propylene Feedstocks 88 North America Propylene Competitive Cost Position 89 Propylene Market Developments 93 Merchant Market Size and Composition 97 Participants 101 United States 104 Canada 109 Mexico 112 Profiles of Key Propylene Players in North America 119 BASF 119 BP 120 Braskem 121 Chevron 122 Chevron Phillips 123 CITGO 124 Dow 124 Enterprise 125 ExxonMobil 127 Flint Hills Resources 128 Formosa Plastics Corporation, USA 130 Ineos 131 LyondellBasell (Equistar) 132 Marathon Petroleum 133 Motiva 135 PBF Energy 135 PEMEX 136 PetroLogistics 137 Phillips Shell 139 Tesoro 140 Total 141 Valero 142 Williams 143 iii

4 Propylene Price Mechanisms 147 Price Definitions 147 Price Forecast Methodology 149 Energy 151 Propylene Price Forecast 153 Technology Review 159 Propylene Production and Consumption Technologies 159 Steam Cracking 160 Refinery FCC 166 Splitting 171 Alkylation 173 Polygas/Dimersol 175 Oil Sands Upgrading 175 Propane Dehydrogenation 178 Metathesis 181 Olefin Cracking & Interconversion 183 High Severity FCC 186 Methanol-to-Olefins/Propylene 189 Production Economic Snapshots 197 Propylene Via Metathesis (C4C2 Butylene Stream at Raffinate 2 Valuation) 198 Propylene Via Metathesis (C2 Dimerization) 199 Propylene Via Metathesis (C4C2 Butylene Stream at Butane Valuation) 200 Propylene Alkylation (HF Acid Process) 201 Propylene Alkylation (Sulfuric Acid Process) 202 Propylene Polymer Gasoline 203 Propylene Splitter Purification 204 Propane Dehydrogenation (UOP Oleflex Process) 205 Propane Dehydrogenation (ABB Houdry CATOFIN Process) 206 Methanol-to-Olefins (MTO) 207 Methanol-to-Propylene (MTP) 208 Coal-to-Olefins (CTO) 209 Fluid Catalytic Converter (FCC) 210 FCC with ZSM-5 Additive 211 Deep Catalytic Cracker (DCC) 212 Superflex Process 213 iv

5 Supply and Demand in North America 217 United States 221 Canada 223 Mexico 224 Supply and Demand Tables by Country, Propylene Distribution in North America (by PTA) 237 Definition of Propylene Trade Areas (PTAs) 237 Supply and Demand by Propylene Trade Area (PTA) 239 PTA 1: Louisiana Mississippi River Area 241 PTA 2: Rest of Louisiana and Eastern Texas 243 PTA 3: Texas Gulf Coast 244 PTA 4: Rest of Texas 247 PTA 5: Eastern United States 248 PTA 6: Mid-Continent United States 250 PTA 7: Mountain States of the United States 251 PTA 8: West Coast United States 252 PTA 9: Western Canada 253 PTA 10: Eastern Canada 255 PTA 11: Mexico 257 Supply and Demand Snapshot for PTAs 1 11, 2013, 2018, and Supply and Demand Tables for PTAs 1 11, Capacity Integration Table for PTAs 1 11, Propylene Trade in North America 305 Country-Level Trade, Polymer Grade Trade 306 Chemical Grade Trade 307 Refinery Grade Trade 308 Inter-PTA Trade 309 Polymer Grade Trade 310 Chemical Grade Trade 312 Refinery Grade Trade 314 North America Net Equivalent Trade 316 United States 317 Canada 318 Mexico 319 Inter-PTA Trade Maps for Total, PG, CG, and RG Propylene: 2013, 2018, Inter-PTA Trade Grids for Total, PG, CG, and RG Propylene: 2013, 2018, v

6 Propylene Terminals in North America 338 Steam Cracker Capacity and Logistics, Refinery FCC/Coker Capacity and Logistics, Appendix 345 Production Locations Maps 345 North America PG and CG Capacity by PTA, North America RG Capacity by PTA, North America FCC Capacity by PTA, North America Coker Capacity by PTA, North America PG, CG Capacity Integration by PTA, North America RG Capacity Integration by PTA, vi

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