Confronting the Challenges of Gender Equality and Fragile States. Main messages. April 23, 2007

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2 Confronting the Challenges of Gender Equality and Fragile States Main messages April 23,

3 Significant progress toward MDG1 Globally MDG1 is on track (2015 forecast HCI=12%). People in developing countries living on less than $1 a day Number of people (millions) Percent of population Number of people Share of people 3

4 Regional progress differs sharply East Asia has already surpassed the MDG1 target. Sub-Saharan Africa lags well behind the target. Share of people living on less than $1 or $2 a day (%) East Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa (with estimates for 2004 and projection for 2015) Poverty - EAP Poverty - SSA Actual $1/day Goal Projected $1/day Actual $1/day Goal Projected $1/day 4

5 The pace of poverty reduction depends on more than growth 14 Growth and Poverty Reduction Over Recent Period* China Burkina Faso Brazil Mozambique India Nigeria Laos Peru -4 Annual Growth in GDP per capita Annual % Reduction in the Poverty Rate * China: Burkina Faso: Brazil: Mozambique: India: Nigeria: Laos: Peru: Source: World Bank Development Economics 5

6 But also cautionary notes Risks to positive outlook unwinding of global imbalances (US trade deficit), pandemic, oil price volatility. Environmental sustainability: growth for many is through depleting their natural assets. Fragile states are being left out: weak growth, little progress with poverty reduction, persistent fragility Unadjusted and Adjusted Net Savings Rates by Region Figure presents the calculation of adjusted net saving in Bolivia in

7 Progress on human development MDGs: But attention to quality of outcomes needed Progress: Higher spending with major results: 34 million additional children in primary school since 2000; 550 mn vaccinated for measles. Yet: Child mortality--80% of countries off-track 10 million children under 5 die annual of preventable causes. Quality focus: Cognitive skills not keeping pace Not a trade off with quantity Needs monitoring, results focus, incentives % th Grade Reading Performance on South African Regional Test South Africa Source: SACMEQ II (2000) and DHS % ever enrolled Uganda Namibia Malaw i % enrolled and achieved minimal literacy 7

8 Better monitoring is needed to show progress in human development MDGs Annual % Reductions in Under 5 Child Mortality Rates * Ethiopia * Egypt Madagascar /04 * Malaw i Philippines Indonesia /03 Morocco /04 * Tanzania Burkina Faso Bangladesh Mozambique * Rw anda * Colombia Bolivia * Guinea * Senegal * Ghana * Chad 1996/ Cameroon * Nigeria Kenya Annual % reduction required to reach MDG 4 * New observations Source: Demographic and Health Surveys 8

9 Advancing the MDGs--Fragile states are least likely to meet them Defined by weak governance and institutions. Often affected by conflict Extreme poverty is increasingly concentrated in Fragile states 35 states, 500 million people. Impact beyond borders. Pose a dilemma for development community 9

10 Fragile states are the least likely to meet the MDGs Facing the largest MDG gap; 27% of extreme poor; nearly 1/3 of child deaths and children not completing school; ¼ of the HIV positive population Reforms approved for rapid response procedures, organization and staffing (WB). Need to implement these reforms, strengthen international partnerships, and deepen lessons on approaches. Sources: World Bank Staff estimates 10

11 Gender equality is about fairness, opportunity, and smart economics Importance: Intrinsic value; economic value; broader linkages to development Performance: Major gains in enrollment parity: 83 of 106 countries by Elsewhere performance lags: labor force participation, political representation. Monitoring: Need for better indicators and greater monitoring effort. Mainstreaming: requires realistic goals; leadership, technical expertise and financing. Tracking gender equality over time: Female to Male Ratio SSA EAP ECA LCR MNA SAR Female to Male ratio in (S) Secondary Par: Proportion Seats held by women in Parliament Source: World Bank Indicators. The regional averages are calculated using the earliest value sandwiched between 1990 and 1995 and the latest value between 2000 and The averages are 11 weighted by the country population size in Share of women

12 Aid quality and scaling up: actions lag far commitments ODA: Dimming prospects for doubling aid. aid concentration--most are not seeing increases. aid quality-- increasing fragmentation; earmarking; lack of predictability, inadequate flexible aid. Scaling-up: opportunities exist; the environment is improving; action points to collective failure of donors, developing countries, and IFIs. DAC Members ODA: and prospects US$ billions Bilateral Administrative Costs Other ODA Humanitarian and Food Aid Non-DAC ODA ODA as a %of GNI Non-DAC ODA DAC - ODA as a % of GNI (right axis) DAC ODA Cont ribut ions t o M ultilat erals Technical Cooperation Debt Forgiveness Grants Projected Net ODA Project ed ODA as a %of GNI % of GNI All data are preliminary 12

13 Overall trade restrictiveness is declining Trade growth continued strongly; developing country export growth is outpacing the global average and countries barriers to trade in manufactures is falling, but multilateral trade liberalization is stalled. Change in OTRI Change in Overall Restrictiveness Increase (>5%) Rwanda Sudan Some Increase (1%-5%) Small-No change Madagascar South Africa Uganda Norway Oman EU Korea Iceland Ukraine Canada Costa Rica Hong Kong Sri Lanka Trinidad & Tobago Malawi Ethiopia New Zealand Romania Gabon Comoros Venezuela Bangladesh Tanzania Some Decrease (1%-5%) Moldova Indonesia Switzerland USA Albania Brunei Chile Honduras Kenya Mali Nicaragua Saudi Arabia El Salv. Thailand Turkey Zambia Bolivia Singapore Japan Belarus Guatemala Russia Malaysia Colombia Argentina Brazil Algeria Senegal Mexico Decrease (>5%) Burkina Faso Ghana Kazakhstan Peru Philippines Paraguay Uruguay Australia China Papua New Guinea Egypt Tunisia Morocco Jordan India Lebanon Mauritius Cote d Ivoire Nigeria Very Low (<10%) Low (10%-15%) Average (15%-20%) High (20%-30%) Very High (>30%) OTRI in 2000 Data are available at: 13 ~thesitepk:469382,00.html

14 Role and performance of IFIs is under pressure Lending: Demand for loans increased in 2006; but future of concessional capacity in question (MDB share of aid? MDRI impact? ). Management for results: sustained focus but slow progress. US $ billio ns Gross Disbursements from MDBs Non-concessional Gender equality: more focus (eg. GAP) but implementation lags design; and mainstreaming needs accountability Concessional Fragile states: need for more resources in balance with country capacity

15 Promoting Gender Equality and Empowerment of Women Chapter 3 Main messages 15

16 Gender equality is measured in 3 domains: Gender equality in rights, resources and voice Leveling the field of opportunities Household Household resource and task allocations Fertility decisions Economy & markets Access to land Financial services Labor markets Technology Society Civic and political participation Domain of choices, Domain of policy Aggregate economic performance (poverty reduction, growth) 16

17 Increased equality has intrinsic and instrumental value Increased gender equality in households, markets and society Women have better access to markets Women have better education and health Mother s greater control over decision-making in households Increased women s labor force participation, productivity and earnings Improved children s well-being Income / consumption expenditure Differential savings rate Better health and educational attainment & greater productivity as adults Current poverty reduction and economic growth Future poverty reduction and economic growth 17

18 A success story: Notable improvements in girls enrollments in last 15 years. 150 AFR EAP ECA LCR MNA SAR P S T P S T P S T P S T P S T P S T Primary Secondary Tertiary

19 However, some low income countries & fragile states will not meet MDG3 target. Regional performance in attaining the primary and secondary enrollment target by 2005 Achieved target by 2005 On track to achieve target by 2015 Off track or unlikely to achieve target by 2015 No data Total Sub-Saharan Africa East Asia and the Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean Middle East and North Africa South Asia Total of which: Fragile states Source: World Bank estimates using data on enrollments between early 1990s and 2004/2005.

20 Official MDG indicators do not fully monitor gender equality and empowerment They exclude important elements of gender equality such as health. They poorly measure gender equality in education, employment and political participation. They monitor performance on national averages which can mask inequality within countries Mean Years of Completed Schooling Schooling gender gap among indigenous children in Bolivia Age Male Non-Indigenous Female Non-Indigenous Male Indigenous Female Indigenous Source: Duryea, Galiani, Nopo and Piras (2006) 20

21 Additional indicators - three filters: Data availability Policy relevance Parsimony 21

22 Recommended additional indicators for MDG3 Household Economy and markets Modifications of official MDG indicators Additional indicators Additional indicators Primary completion rate of girls and boys (MDG 2) Percentage of yearold girls who are mothers or pregnant with their first child Labor force participation rates among women and men aged and Under five mortality rate for girls and boys (MDG 4) Percentage of reproductiveage women, and their sexual partners, using modern contraceptives (MDG 6) 22

23 Monitoring child mortality reveals additional problem regions Female under-5 mortality rate and female to male ratio, 2004 Under-5 mortality rate Female to male ratio South Asia East Asia and Sub Saharan Middle East & Europe & Latin America Pacific Africa North Africa Central Asia & Caribbean Female under-5 mortality rate Female to male under-5 mortality ratio Source: World Population Prospects

24 Countries rank differently in official and additional indicators 24

25 The unfinished agenda Closing gaps in well-being and opportunities for girls and women in disadvantaged sub-groups within nations. Giving priority to Sub-Saharan Saharan Africa. Paying special attention to MDG3 issues in fragile states. Scaling up collection of sex disaggregated data to measure progress (especially, in the domains of society and the market and economy). 25

26 Implementation of gender policies in donor agencies & IFIs has been disappointing. 26

27 Way forward for donor agencies: Selectivity in gender mainstreaming. Results orientation with strengthened M&E. Stronger organizational arrangements for gender-specific actions and mainstreaming. Synergies with aid effectiveness agenda. 27

28 IFIs can scale-up MDG3 agenda Invest dedicated resources to include gender in results orientation. Play leadership role to monitor MDG3 at international level. Assist client countries in scaling up MDG3 interventions. 28

29 Thank you The GMR and related materials are available at: 29